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CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
11. Don't get your hopes up
Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:29 AM
Mar 2016

Here is the available polling data of of the RealClearPolitics.com website:

3/22/16:


In Idaho, Sanders has a 2% lead .
Nate Silver: No prediction

In Utah Clinton has a 8.5% lead.
Nate Silver: Sanders 51.2% chance of wining, Clinton 43.9% chance of wining

In Arizona Clinton has a 30% lead.
Nate Silver: Clinton 51.1 chance of wining, Sanders 22.7% chance of wining

3/26/16:

In Alaska Clinton has a 3% lead.
Nate Silver: No prediction

Washington - no reliable poll
Nate Silver: No prediction

Hawaii - no reliable poll
Nate Silver: No prediction

So, ask yourself, based on these polls results, and lack of reliable poll results how in the heck can these predictions be right?

And since Arizona has more delegates than Idaho, Utah and Alaska combined, it's certainly possible that Sanders is going to slip even further behind.

Hillary will crush him in Arizona and lengthen her delegate lead. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #1
Sounds about right. Demographics favor him in the next week or two. DanTex Mar 2016 #2
Pyrrhic victories in low pop states workinclasszero Mar 2016 #7
Yeah, but it will keep DU entertaining firebrand80 Mar 2016 #9
True workinclasszero Mar 2016 #10
why do you say Pyrrhic? PaulaFarrell Mar 2016 #17
It just does him no good workinclasszero Mar 2016 #18
that not the meaning of pyrrhic n/t PaulaFarrell Mar 2016 #19
It's a caucus state and Bernie does best in those states book_worm Mar 2016 #3
When you have more supporters and more enthusiastic supporters, you generally regardless of whether Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #5
I wish Arizona looked as good for Bernie Funtatlaguy Mar 2016 #4
It's a betting market; betting markets favor the Goliath over the underdog. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #6
Under 60% = Win for Hillary firebrand80 Mar 2016 #8
no, he needs to average 57%. no specific race has to reach 60% Vote2016 Mar 2016 #14
In every contest that he doesn't hit that number firebrand80 Mar 2016 #15
and in every contest where Sanders exceeds that goal (thanks Democrats Abroad!) the goal goes down! Vote2016 Mar 2016 #20
Don't get your hopes up CajunBlazer Mar 2016 #11
we should worry about Nate's predictions because he's been wrong so often in 2016 that he's overdue Vote2016 Mar 2016 #13
Tell me, which of any of the March primaries and caucuses is... CajunBlazer Mar 2016 #16
kick & rec #5 Vote2016 Mar 2016 #12
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