2016 Postmortem

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)

116. Good, I'll be interested to see if he's correct

Reply to KamaAina (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 10:38 AM

Mar 2016

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Bernie Sanders is Set To Win All of The Upcoming 8 States, Expert Says [View all] KamaAina Mar 2016 OP

Hence the "Time to drop out now, stick a fork in him" barrage of the past 48 hours. arcane1 Mar 2016 #1

They're scared because he can win. And Hillary can't win even if she took every Delegate left. Zira Mar 2016 #4

But don't you know? astrophuss42 Mar 2016 #19

"she will always be there for us" pdsimdars Mar 2016 #58

It was a quote from one of her speeches astrophuss42 Mar 2016 #59

Nope, it's more like 33% of the 41% of Dem primary voters Sanders has won so far. Not all Dems. nt CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #26

Now I'm against Hillary for the nominee, but aren't there like ~2,000 pledged delegates left? nt revbones Mar 2016 #76

I hope so. But this may keep happing Zira Mar 2016 #2

Interesting video! OMG people got their pictures taken, how evil, LOL. bettyellen Mar 2016 #10

Welcome to my ignore. Zira Mar 2016 #14

Thank you! The dude in the video is both paranoid and naive. First campaign I guess. bettyellen Mar 2016 #23

Can you include me? trumad Mar 2016 #28

Bwah haa ha . Here for only a week and already threatening with the dreaded "ignore" Sheepshank Mar 2016 #60

Ignore me too please! Lucinda Mar 2016 #64

Add me too! Desert805 Mar 2016 #67

What is "happing"? panader0 Mar 2016 #66

Well this'll put a kink Ferd Berfel Mar 2016 #3

Who cares what they do? They are irrelevant. Zira Mar 2016 #7

Hillary will win AZ and might win HI. hrmjustin Mar 2016 #5

I think Sanders thumps Clinton pretty good there. geek tragedy Mar 2016 #9

She will put up a fight though. hrmjustin Mar 2016 #11

she'll fight everywhere, even where she's down in the polls. geek tragedy Mar 2016 #17

She didn't, and it's all proportional. Agschmid Mar 2016 #25

Especially at this stage of the game ... with such a lead. ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2016 #124

Correct, she hasn't written off a single state throughout this campaign, unlike her opponent. George II Mar 2016 #112

I've been calling all day in Az, 90% of the people I spoke with are with Bernie. jillan Mar 2016 #12

Did you get the list of numbers from the Sanders campaign? hrmjustin Mar 2016 #15

I live in Az sdaz Mar 2016 #37

So you are calling people that volunteer their time a "cult"? Wow. Just wow. jillan Mar 2016 #40

Democracy is a cult? Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #62

well, I'd be annoyed too, and I support him renate Mar 2016 #74

Please don't blame the callers. HerbChestnut Mar 2016 #81

3 posts. n/t libdem4life Mar 2016 #85

thank you so much for your hard work! renate Mar 2016 #75

Phone banking a day or two before an election/primary isn't done to sway voters, its done to.... George II Mar 2016 #113

I think you're right. But lost in all this "win" blather is that he doesn't merely have to "win"... George II Mar 2016 #110

Silver is not predicting Sanders will win Arizona. Sanders does not care about crowd sizes. geek tragedy Mar 2016 #6

"Now, however, following a change in Silver’s prediction system.." misterhighwasted Mar 2016 #8

From the article: KamaAina Mar 2016 #13

My point. misterhighwasted Mar 2016 #21

It's pretty clear he has a new model noiretextatique Mar 2016 #122

avoiding over-correlation based on particularly strong results can be tricky 0rganism Mar 2016 #34

He could very easily be over fitting his models if he is not careful. Yup. nt Lucky Luciano Mar 2016 #99

Why not create a new model cosmicone Mar 2016 #16

THIS ^ misterhighwasted Mar 2016 #24

I think Bernie will kill it in Alaska. Blue_In_AK Mar 2016 #18

He will. Agschmid Mar 2016 #27

Good read, it will be interesting for sure. Agschmid Mar 2016 #20

Silver's model here gives Sanders less of a chance in AZ than he had in Ohio nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #22

Maybe he'll revert back to the old model for some States misterhighwasted Mar 2016 #29

he's not changing model, he's playing with numbers geek tragedy Mar 2016 #30

Yes. the article referred to it as 'change in the prediction system.' misterhighwasted Mar 2016 #41

It was premature and transparent to ask Bernie to get out of the race. ViseGrip Mar 2016 #31

Thank You For Sharing This Good News cantbeserious Mar 2016 #32

I'm Just Concerned That They're Building Bernie's Expectations..... global1 Mar 2016 #33

They can make Old Codger Mar 2016 #51

That is what the Hillary side is trying to do Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #71

I am hesitant to get on board with this analysis after the last series. GreenPartyVoter Mar 2016 #118

The household name Land of Enchantment Mar 2016 #35

Yet she won the popular vote in 2008 and she's a couple MILLION ahead now. R B Garr Mar 2016 #53

Does the count include all the votes in the caucus states JimDandy Mar 2016 #57

We're talking about a 2.4 MILLION vote lead. But how about the Michigan voters who got R B Garr Mar 2016 #63

Again, does this number include all the caucus states? n/t JimDandy Mar 2016 #73

It includes most states metroins Mar 2016 #103

yeah, in the deep south and Ohio. The MOST PROGRESSIVE Land of Enchantment Mar 2016 #77

Tomorrow is just one day/ But how laughable R B Garr Mar 2016 #79

Yeah. kenfrequed Mar 2016 #106

Last I checked, Nate Silver's name was MUD amongst Bernie supporters. nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #36

Is it really that hard for Hillary supporters? revbones Mar 2016 #78

Is WHAT really that hard? Nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #88

To understand revbones Mar 2016 #89

Name five things that Bernie has done wrong. Nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #90

That's your response? revbones Mar 2016 #92

That's what I thought. Nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #94

You thought I wouldn't take the bait, so you just posted it anyway. revbones Mar 2016 #95

Whatever you say. Nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #96

If you like facts and truth, here are some: George II Mar 2016 #114

Nice. Demonstrates a bit of immaturity though. revbones Mar 2016 #117

Ditto. George II Mar 2016 #119

Nate Silver gets dragged out from under the bus. DavidDvorkin Mar 2016 #38

Ha.. misterhighwasted Mar 2016 #43

"But leave his feet under there, just in case he offends us again." DavidDvorkin Mar 2016 #44

Ow my ankles! misterhighwasted Mar 2016 #47

Even if this happens, he'll face a steeper climb than he does today. DavidDvorkin Mar 2016 #39

As much as I want to be hopeful about this, it comes from Nate Silver who has seemed to lose his jillan Mar 2016 #42

Sorry, but I do not trust Nate Silver nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #45

That's probably because Nate Silver has a habit of actually being accurate. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #50

Nope, but nice try nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #52

Yup...history bears out the habits of this statistician. Nt Sheepshank Mar 2016 #61

No. And this year has been a monumental failure for him. Kittycat Mar 2016 #69

He's missed two states where he's made projections, Oklahoma and Michigan. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #70

You are looking at win/loss. I'm looking at % swing. Kittycat Mar 2016 #80

I don't think you understand how 538's model works. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #91

No, I do. Kittycat Mar 2016 #97

Twenty six states so far, he was wrong about one of them (which was decided by 2%). I'd say.... George II Mar 2016 #109

If it hinges on New York PATRICK Mar 2016 #46

after that Nate Silver says Clinton pretty much has the nomination. shadowandblossom Mar 2016 #48

"More of them seem to want Clinton as their nominee" Samantha Mar 2016 #98

Clinton has a substantial lead in Arizona--most recent was 26 points. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #49

I'd be really surprised if he won AZ. He should start to seriously erode Clinton's lead in WA JimDandy Mar 2016 #54

A dent, maybe. Then Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New York vote. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #55

Ah, when I read your posts . . . . . I hear a song . . . .. pdsimdars Mar 2016 #56

I have so much hope because of the young leadership I am seeing Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #72

The numbers in the articles don't align with what is at fiverthiryeight n/t Lucinda Mar 2016 #65

K&R amborin Mar 2016 #68

I read Clinton banked a lot of votes in AZ. Skwmom Mar 2016 #82

Slightly deceptive article. It's the winning margins that matter more so than the wins. LonePirate Mar 2016 #83

Unless he wins by big margins, it won't mean much Kaleva Mar 2016 #84

But wait a minute, Camp Sanders told us that all of Hill's Southern wins were irrelevant Tarc Mar 2016 #86

This 74 year old man MuseRider Mar 2016 #87

May this good thing happen to us. senz Mar 2016 #93

That's great news - let's hope he will do so by 60 - 40 percent margins. Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #100

So, where on fivethirtyeight.com did they take that interesting looking chart from? synergie Mar 2016 #101

None of these polls really mean anything. Bad Dog Mar 2016 #102

+1 lmbradford Mar 2016 #108

And these are states that will actually be BLUE in the election. nt TBF Mar 2016 #104

I hope so, and I hope this mornings terror attacks doesn't freak out people into voting for HRC Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #105

All told after these 8 "great" Bernie states he will still trail by well over 200 delegates. DCBob Mar 2016 #107

Anyone here check the "About" Politicalpeopleblog? Objective? I think not. George II Mar 2016 #111

states don't let me down. make it so. Hiraeth Mar 2016 #115

Good, I'll be interested to see if he's correct WhaTHellsgoingonhere Mar 2016 #116

So many people have yet to vote. tabasco Mar 2016 #120

Kicked and Rec'd demwing Mar 2016 #121

That would surprise me. Orsino Mar 2016 #123