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politicman

(710 posts)
13. polls suggest Obama leading
Thu Oct 18, 2012, 11:36 PM
Oct 2012

Why is everyone freaking out over these poll numbers?

People need to chill out and assess the race as it stands at the moment.

Firstly, 90% of all state polls released show Obama in the lead is some sort of capacity.

Some polls show him leading by 1-2 points, other polls show him leading by 4-5 points.

The thing to consider is that when a single poll shows Obama leading in a state by the bearest of margins 1-2 points, it can be interpreted as being in the margin of error BUT when you have many more polls showing this and even bigger leads, then that means that whatever lead is showing is most likely a stable lead and not subject to margin of error.

Some polls will be more favorable to Romney and some will be favorable to Obama, BUT when every single poll shows Obama with some sort of lead then you can pretty much be assured that Obama leads in the swing states.

As for that Gallup poll, well, its embarrassing that a polling firm such as gallup is making itself the laughing stock.

Gallup uses a 7 day average, because it says that it can more accurately predict the state of the race over such a period of time BUT what they dont say is that WHEN they have a completely out-of-field polling day outlier included in their average, then that skews the result for the whole seven day average.

Example, on one day Gallup including a sample in its average of having pluss 22 points for Romney in the south, So even if everyday of their average was back to normal, UNTIL that outlier day drops off the average then that average will continue to be skewed with that outlier day.

The polls seem surreal when Mitt is up. RichGirl Oct 2012 #1
Robme's supporters have also been fed four years of lies which they believe without question LonePirate Oct 2012 #8
My...what an astute observation. jaysunb Oct 2012 #9
I have A LOT of republican friends Cosmocat Oct 2012 #23
I stop bothering a month before the election Warpy Oct 2012 #2
Smart. A lot of it is mental. liberalmuse Oct 2012 #27
Oh, it's surreal to me, too. I feel like I'm on Stupid Planet. And then I realize all over again the Nay Oct 2012 #3
Obama's re-election will go some way to solving it. Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #16
YES! cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #4
The base cratered, the media sealed the narrative Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #5
I am so understanding your OP! I am a bundle of nerves, even though i am canvassing and Ninga Oct 2012 #6
for better or worse, I guess I am letting both my open book and bleeding heart show! NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #7
YES. Either someone is jacking with the numbers ProfessionalLeftist Oct 2012 #10
The supposed "liberal" MSM did this - Horse race - Also, some guys like tough guys DHelix Oct 2012 #11
Great, points all - thanks for this thoughtful response to my OP. NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #12
polls suggest Obama leading politicman Oct 2012 #13
Keep in mind "tied" in a national poll means exactly nothing. jeff47 Oct 2012 #14
It isn't the value of the polls on a given day - it is how the rolling average moves over time. NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #15
Actually, Nate talks about this today jeff47 Oct 2012 #22
This message was self-deleted by its author GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #17
Yes, things are weird. GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #18
"are there that many Americans with their heads up their ass?" Prophet 451 Oct 2012 #19
It does but quaker bill Oct 2012 #20
The house is a LONG shot Cosmocat Oct 2012 #24
I do not know what you have been reading quaker bill Oct 2012 #29
Believe me Cosmocat Oct 2012 #30
It will be tough for sure quaker bill Oct 2012 #31
i think they had a shot Cosmocat Oct 2012 #33
While there is some correlation quaker bill Oct 2012 #35
yeah Cosmocat Oct 2012 #39
It's just more egregious. bemildred Oct 2012 #21
actually, the state of voter education is surreal wordpix Oct 2012 #25
Worries me in that they can be used as a way to make election theft possible rurallib Oct 2012 #26
really, it should just not, not be this close Flashmann Oct 2012 #28
Intellectually it shouldn't, but i get it Cosmocat Oct 2012 #32
Not really... tallahasseedem Oct 2012 #34
Yes, and so does this entire election season lunatica Oct 2012 #36
I'll let George Carlin explain... RedSpartan Oct 2012 #37
Yes, but buckyblue Oct 2012 #38
My 89 y.o. Mother-in-law Marthe48 Oct 2012 #40
Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. Most don't pay any attention to neverforget Oct 2012 #41
Hopefully those are the ones who will stay home. LisaL Oct 2012 #42
head up asses monkeyofstick Oct 2012 #43
FWIW, the correct term is heebie jeebies, unless you are looking to be offensive. uppityperson Oct 2012 #44
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