2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Do the state of the polls (in general) seem just surreal to anyone else? [View all]politicman
(710 posts)Why is everyone freaking out over these poll numbers?
People need to chill out and assess the race as it stands at the moment.
Firstly, 90% of all state polls released show Obama in the lead is some sort of capacity.
Some polls show him leading by 1-2 points, other polls show him leading by 4-5 points.
The thing to consider is that when a single poll shows Obama leading in a state by the bearest of margins 1-2 points, it can be interpreted as being in the margin of error BUT when you have many more polls showing this and even bigger leads, then that means that whatever lead is showing is most likely a stable lead and not subject to margin of error.
Some polls will be more favorable to Romney and some will be favorable to Obama, BUT when every single poll shows Obama with some sort of lead then you can pretty much be assured that Obama leads in the swing states.
As for that Gallup poll, well, its embarrassing that a polling firm such as gallup is making itself the laughing stock.
Gallup uses a 7 day average, because it says that it can more accurately predict the state of the race over such a period of time BUT what they dont say is that WHEN they have a completely out-of-field polling day outlier included in their average, then that skews the result for the whole seven day average.
Example, on one day Gallup including a sample in its average of having pluss 22 points for Romney in the south, So even if everyday of their average was back to normal, UNTIL that outlier day drops off the average then that average will continue to be skewed with that outlier day.