2016 Postmortem

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)

51. Utterly Unrealistic

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 02:10 AM

Mar 2016

I've asked many times for someone to use one of the delegate calculators to demonstrate how Sanders could acquire a majority of pledged delegates. Finally someone has done so, but it's nowhere close to realistic.

8-point victory in NY, 12-point victory in NJ, and a 16-point victory in both PA and CA? Only a 10-point loss in MD and only a 16-point loss in Wash. D.C.?

Could one of those things happen? I suppose. All of them? No.

And even then Sanders just barely takes the lead.

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Awesome chart for Bernie's path to the nomination! [View all] GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 OP

... onehandle Mar 2016 #1

That appears so for Hillary NWCorona Mar 2016 #4

What is remarkable is that he shaved 100 delegates in a few days and just a few contests. morningfog Mar 2016 #2

Not really. hack89 Mar 2016 #5

He's making the road less impossible with his landslides against the front runner. morningfog Mar 2016 #7

He needs landslides in big states hack89 Mar 2016 #9

No he doesn't need a landslide in a big state. He needs wins in big states to be sure and morningfog Mar 2016 #11

He needs landslide victories simply to get the delegates he needs hack89 Mar 2016 #16

Her lead is 228 delegates. He needs 56.5% of the remaining delegates. morningfog Mar 2016 #21

She needs 44%. She could lose every remaining state and still be the nominee. hack89 Mar 2016 #49

Lol, of course it's easier. morningfog Mar 2016 #50

That chart should scare the hell out of any Bernie supporter. hack89 Mar 2016 #3

No fear. It is what it is. morningfog Mar 2016 #8

I think it looks pretty promising. bobbobbins01 Mar 2016 #10

Based on what understanding of the electorate? hack89 Mar 2016 #12

I think we've learned that the polls have been way off. bobbobbins01 Mar 2016 #15

Not really hack89 Mar 2016 #18

as have the prognosticators reddread Mar 2016 #25

Time... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #20

All that matters is the number of delegates. That is all. hack89 Mar 2016 #22

yeah, sure... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #23

Yet polls for previous and subsequent states were accurate hack89 Mar 2016 #24

my point... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #26

And Hillary only needs to win 44% to win. hack89 Mar 2016 #27

Agree to disagree... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #30

+1 CountAllVotes Mar 2016 #31

agreed! HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #32

You like 538, huh? Spin this. CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #33

OK, I'll take that challenge... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #34

You're so scared you're quoting out of context. CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #36

Incorrect... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #37

Oh, so you're a professional cherry-picker then? Not surprising. CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #38

Try again... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #39

Nate's words: "These are not predictions." Try reading the whole article. CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #41

I did... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #42

Nate's words: "These are not predictions." Everything after is an argumentative ASSUMPTION CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #43

Ugh... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #45

Also of note, the Arizona number will change in Bernies favor slightly. bobbobbins01 Mar 2016 #6

They are counting the provisional ballots in AZ? Please tell me! thereismore Mar 2016 #14

I've been tracking it here... bobbobbins01 Mar 2016 #17

That's really great. Thanks to everyone who stayed thereismore Mar 2016 #28

+1 strategery blunder Mar 2016 #52

I think he will be "in the green" after WI but then all eyes are on NY. He needs to win with 54%, thereismore Mar 2016 #13

K&R amborin Mar 2016 #19

Basically according to that site, he has to win almost every contest Renew Deal Mar 2016 #29

Some hilarious stuff right there Tarc Mar 2016 #35

He is not even going to get 44% in NY let alone 54% hrmjustin Mar 2016 #40

Now there's a wonderful piece of dishonesty. Donald Ian Rankin Mar 2016 #44

That clearly shows how impossible it is for Bernie to win. DCBob Mar 2016 #46

Chart ignores super delegates Gothmog Mar 2016 #47

This is not correct. Bernie needs to win 56.5% of remaining delegates, not 58%. jg10003 Mar 2016 #48

Utterly Unrealistic Garrett78 Mar 2016 #51