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2016 Postmortem

demwing

(16,916 posts)

7. another way to look at this

Reply to demwing (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 09:42 PM

Oct 2012

We lose about 22% of our 2008 lead each 5th day--it's uncanny. At 5 days we were 22% down, at 10 days we are 44% down.

If, at the end of 20 days of early voting, the trend has held, we'll have lost 88% of our 2008 margin. If true, the 267132 vote margin we held in 2008 will be reduced to about 58,769 votes.

Which will translate into a 1 - 2% win!!! Booyah!

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Highlight:

10/27 Update on early voting NC and IA, good news, not great, and possibly great hard numbers. [View all] grantcart Oct 2012 OP

As far as Iowa goes... CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #1

NPR had a good story about satellite voting, and how the Dems were running circles around the Reps grantcart Oct 2012 #3

NC is doing great so far. LisaL Oct 2012 #2

Go Obama! Get out the vote and win this thing! Kteachums Oct 2012 #4

Thank you so much for these detailed updates. David Zephyr Oct 2012 #5

thank you grantcart Oct 2012 #8

grantcart, thanks for your post We need to keep kicked goclark Nov 2012 #13

That's actually GREAT news!!! demwing Oct 2012 #6

another way to look at this demwing Oct 2012 #7

Where did we have a 267,132 vote margin? onenote Nov 2012 #24

The issue comes down to whether or not Romney votes are McCain voters or grantcart Oct 2012 #11

New Votes v. Early Votes demwing Oct 2012 #12

I'm not following your math. onenote Nov 2012 #23

Really appreciate these posts. beac Oct 2012 #9

thanks grantcart Oct 2012 #10

great post! Sorry, I have a dumb question: faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #14

We know who has voted but we don't know how they voted. grantcart Nov 2012 #15

ok, that's what I thought...thanks so much for the education! faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #16

What do you mean 'good evidence' that Romney is shuffling one stack to another? What evidence? blue-kite Nov 2012 #17

That's what the links are for. If you want the indepth discussion, go there grantcart Nov 2012 #18

txs grantcart...k and r goclark Nov 2012 #20

Shouldn't Obama be leading Colorado? TroyD Nov 2012 #19

Yeah, polls have swung toward Obama in Colorado this week VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #25

Here is the update from yesterday's early voting chapel hill dem Nov 2012 #21

understand and thanks grantcart Nov 2012 #22