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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » 10/27 Update on early vot... » Reply #15

Response to faithfulcitizen (Reply #14)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 01:20 PM

15. We know who has voted but we don't know how they voted.


The projections are based on party breakdown and projections on independent voting from the area. If you link back to the original article he explains his methodology.

Everyday the campaigns go to the polling stations and get the names of those that have voted and cross them off their GOTV list which details all of the people that they know support their candidate or who they believe that they lean toward their candidate. Then they call and have people drop by to see if they need help in getting to the poll.

From a statistical point of view the important thinkg is not so much having a perfect methodology as it is comparing numbers from 4 years ago.

Since they have the same numbers used in the same methodology 4 years ago we can tell how this cycle compares to the previous cycle. Its going to be close in NC, real close.

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grantcart Oct 2012 OP
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #1
grantcart Oct 2012 #3
LisaL Oct 2012 #2
Kteachums Oct 2012 #4
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #5
grantcart Oct 2012 #8
goclark Nov 2012 #13
demwing Oct 2012 #6
demwing Oct 2012 #7
onenote Nov 2012 #24
grantcart Oct 2012 #11
demwing Oct 2012 #12
onenote Nov 2012 #23
beac Oct 2012 #9
grantcart Oct 2012 #10
faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #14
LineLineReply We know who has voted but we don't know how they voted.
grantcart Nov 2012 #15
faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #16
blue-kite Nov 2012 #17
grantcart Nov 2012 #18
goclark Nov 2012 #20
TroyD Nov 2012 #19
VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #25
chapel hill dem Nov 2012 #21
grantcart Nov 2012 #22
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