2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Thu May 19, 2016, 03:10 PM May 2016

Nate Silver: Why does Bernie poll better in the GE? Because Clinton voters will vote for him [View all]

Not a mean post, just some numbers from a series of his Tweets:

In a matchup against Trump, 55% of Sanders voters support Clinton, 15% Trump. That leaves a big 30% chunk undecided or voting for "other".

Clinton's numbers among Democrats look good/fine. The trick is that many Sanders voters are independents, so easy to miss their importance.

In fact, most of the reason Sanders has better general elex numbers than Clinton is because almost all her voters support him vs. Trump.

Whereas many Sanders voters defect to undecided (and a few to Trump). Of course, that could change if she wraps up nomination.

107 replies

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Nate Silver: Why does Bernie poll better in the GE? Because Clinton voters will vote for him [View all] Godhumor May 2016 OP

Yeah, makes sense. nt anotherproletariat May 2016 #1

Because Clinton voters are actually Democrats who have more skin in the game Cali_Democrat May 2016 #2

What a disgusting post. HerbChestnut May 2016 #4

You can't be serious with that bullshit. Dawgs May 2016 #5

Spot on. CorkySt.Clair May 2016 #10

Why is your signature line an image of David Brock? nt lumberjack_jeff May 2016 #22

He likes the guy who signs his pay checks? TimPlo May 2016 #41

That's a big part, the Sanders people can afford a Trump presidency more. YouDig May 2016 #11

+10000 auntpurl May 2016 #15

Sanders' $15 minimum wage disportionately helps women and minorities Ash_F May 2016 #16

Most of her online supporters are outsourced from third world countries AgingAmerican May 2016 #18

Because Bernie supporters ARE privileged. Those with non-profits can Gomez163 May 2016 #30

How much money has the non-profit Clinton Foundation raised? PufPuf23 May 2016 #107

Easy to call voters "privileged" when you live in California... phleshdef May 2016 #35

I have skin in the game and I'm voting for Bernie. bobbobbins01 May 2016 #46

Bull Shit bkkyosemite May 2016 #53

Quite a bit of her supporters lean conservative. JRLeft May 2016 #54

Actually.....40% of Bernie supporters in West Virginia would back Trump in the GE over Bernie Cali_Democrat May 2016 #67

That poll was debunked. JRLeft May 2016 #75

No it wasn't. nt Cali_Democrat May 2016 #77

Not snarky. How. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #82

Agreed....n/t asuhornets May 2016 #56

Here's who has more skin in Hillary's game. imagine2015 May 2016 #96

10 million Bernie voters. Put down you brush. morningfog May 2016 #100

NAILED IT. And ohhhh, the howls your bit of truth caused. Number23 May 2016 #101

+1 uponit7771 May 2016 #102

Nate should visit the Clinton forum lol! NWCorona May 2016 #3

Clinton voters are adults about losing alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #6

Well said. nt Cali_Democrat May 2016 #9

Fair question to you SheenaR May 2016 #13

There were NO "severe irregularities" that were Hortensis May 2016 #36

I remember something different in 2008 when the nomination was about to be lost aikoaiko May 2016 #17

I supported Obama in 2008 alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #31

Clinton's reaction to losing was pure grace. joshcryer May 2016 #38

"pure grace" ... Um, no. AtomicKitten May 2016 #48

It is living in the present that counts. riversedge May 2016 #57

Of course she continued until she could not. joshcryer May 2016 #59

This message was self-deleted by its author AtomicKitten May 2016 #85

Oops, I was off by one day about Clinton's graceful exit. joshcryer May 2016 #86

Keith Olbermann once chastised Hillary for running as if she were the Republican against Obama. AtomicKitten May 2016 #87

I expect Sanders to back Clinton similarly as she did Obama. joshcryer May 2016 #88

Clinton voters timmymoff May 2016 #50

55% of Sanders voters are the right wing of the party Blue_Adept May 2016 #66

They are the ones who havent had quite enough of the dnc's shit. timmymoff May 2016 #78

+ 1 JoePhilly May 2016 #62

I guess 2008 was just a dream. CanadaexPat May 2016 #79

Not a good reflection on them. Clinton supporters would vote for him but many of them . . . brush May 2016 #7

That is also part of the reason HRC has high unfavorables. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #25

Yeah, and we Clintonsupporters welcomed him into the party for this non-reciprical showing of a_sses brush May 2016 #32

If a pollster polls a HRC supporter and says do you think BS is honest and trustworthy... DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #37

No need to slime her, timmymoff May 2016 #64

Point DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #69

she tries to hide to much shit being "cutesy" timmymoff May 2016 #70

Lmao timmymoff May 2016 #52

Did you miss the point? Clinton supporters will vote for Bernie if he gets the nod, but Sanders . . brush May 2016 #58

sounds like you guys burnt the freakin bridges we warned timmymoff May 2016 #61

Guess you don't know, independents come in all stripes brush May 2016 #71

Oh I do know timmymoff May 2016 #72

Yeah, yeah. As I said, most sensible left-leaning and moderate indies will vote blue . . . brush May 2016 #73

you can keep acting like you didn't bring this on yourselves timmymoff May 2016 #76

People said the same thing in 2012, about Obama. BzaDem May 2016 #89

Obama was primaried in 2012 lol timmymoff May 2016 #90

You are saying Clinton won't win in the GE, due to the left not voting. BzaDem May 2016 #91

if she wins, we all lose timmymoff May 2016 #93

Speak for yourself. Many here believe that a Trump victory would be a loss. BzaDem May 2016 #103

we will have a president who will overtly screw us timmymoff May 2016 #104

Here's one for you. Clinton will win the Dem nomination. brush May 2016 #94

Yeah, yeah, again, like every independent is going to vote for Trump. Get real. brush May 2016 #95

nope.. theywill stay home as well. timmymoff May 2016 #97

IMO, it's primarily because Bernie has not been vetted/attacked by the Repugs. MoonRiver May 2016 #8

Yes, the character assassination industry has not Hortensis May 2016 #39

Exactly. n/t Lucinda May 2016 #81

This keeps getting repeated but there isn't one shred of evidence to prove that claim. RichVRichV May 2016 #106

So will Independents & many Republicans who WILL NOT vote for Hillary emsimon33 May 2016 #12

Its true, Clinton-types will vote for anyone with a D without additional thought. aikoaiko May 2016 #14

Is that supposed to be an insult? auntpurl May 2016 #19

It is what it is. aikoaiko May 2016 #20

That could change if she wraps up the nomination. Once Trump really goes after her she will get more Skwmom May 2016 #21

Because... DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #23

This is like some relationships... Sparkly May 2016 #24

That is ONE of the reasons, yes. Nate Silver has been noticeably biased throughout this primary, merrily May 2016 #26

What has happened to nate? Why no mention of independents? cali May 2016 #27

2nd Tweet/paragraph in the OP n/t Godhumor May 2016 #40

Oops. That'll learn me. cali May 2016 #44

I'm no longer voting Bernie. I can't stand to watch him on TV - i change the station the minute MariaThinks May 2016 #28

You've been told this for months ibegurpard May 2016 #29

That is one... quickesst May 2016 #33

So, Hillary voters don't hold grudges? Hillary voters aren't spiteful and petty revenge seekers? NurseJackie May 2016 #34

On average, we're little sweethearts, yes. :) Hortensis May 2016 #42

I figured as much! :-P NurseJackie May 2016 #68

Bernie isn't a liar... Bernie isn't corrupt. Bernie isn't for sale, under FBI investigation or AzDar May 2016 #43

The majority of GE voters are not progressives, though. LonePirate May 2016 #49

We're discussing Hillary Supporters, and why THEY would vote for Bernie. AzDar May 2016 #51

I think he is frazzled May 2016 #55

'I think' is the operational phrase, there...Facts say otherwise; aren't subjective. Also, any AzDar May 2016 #63

Okay, I KNOW he is frazzled May 2016 #80

This is why she is the weaker candidate for the GE. azmom May 2016 #45

Until the October Surprise Ferd Berfel May 2016 #47

LOL! Nate is in the tank for HRC; this is a bogus statement amborin May 2016 #60

I think there's some logic and reason to it. Alex4Martinez May 2016 #65

Why wouldn't Democrats choose the best choice this fall? Dem2 May 2016 #74

Some of us have been saying this for going on six months now, it's not some revelation from on high Fumesucker May 2016 #83

Exactly-Loyal Democratic Voters v Dis-Loyal Democratic Voters Stallion May 2016 #84

Switching to Bernie Would Be Much Less Painful than Vice-Versa n/t davidlynch May 2016 #92

That has been their argument all along: they won't vote for the nominee if The Second Stone May 2016 #98

when was the last time Nate Silver was relevant? his prediction of Trump was spot on. Exilednight May 2016 #99

When Sanders faces reality, Clinton in a walk if we vote. Hoyt May 2016 #105