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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:30 PM

22. That poll has some obvious math errors.

290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total

Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.

The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.

538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.

Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

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Ferd Berfel May 2016 OP
amborin May 2016 #1
bravenak May 2016 #5
Corporate666 May 2016 #26
BootinUp May 2016 #33
bravenak May 2016 #2
cali May 2016 #25
bravenak May 2016 #27
onenote May 2016 #40
tonyt53 May 2016 #3
arcane1 May 2016 #4
Ferd Berfel May 2016 #6
nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #9
Corporate666 May 2016 #28
nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #30
RufusTFirefly May 2016 #10
nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #31
AzDar May 2016 #7
LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #8
Ferd Berfel May 2016 #11
LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #15
KingFlorez May 2016 #12
hrmjustin May 2016 #13
gravityspy May 2016 #16
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TwilightZone May 2016 #23
CrowCityDem May 2016 #14
arcane1 May 2016 #17
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MADem May 2016 #19
LenaBaby61 May 2016 #34
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dana_b May 2016 #20
LenaBaby61 May 2016 #32
scscholar May 2016 #21
beardown May 2016 #37
scscholar May 2016 #38
LineReply That poll has some obvious math errors.
TwilightZone May 2016 #22
BootinUp May 2016 #35
dana_b May 2016 #39
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