2016 Postmortem

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)

41. My prediction was that he woudl be the nominee and could get the full enchilada

Sat May 28, 2016, 06:09 PM

May 2016

there are a few not very conventional routes that they will go for, and might very well work

The Dems are committing suicide, partly becuase they have YET to take this man seriously, and we will pay for it.

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A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all] Garrett78 May 2016 OP

I think she starts with a considerable advantage but I think she could easily lose cali May 2016 #1

I suspect Clinton will win all 3 of those. Garrett78 May 2016 #2

You asked. cali May 2016 #4

I did, and I appreciate your response. Garrett78 May 2016 #6

Garrett78—No Republican can pull together a winning map without both Florida and Ohio CobaltBlue May 2016 #141

Agreed. I don't see Trump or any Republican reaching 270 w/out both of those states. Garrett78 May 2016 #148

Garrett78—Not likely CobaltBlue May 2016 #160

No, it's not likely that Clinton can win without either FL or OH. Garrett78 May 2016 #161

Garrett78—I think we agree CobaltBlue May 2016 #174

here is a way, not likely but is in the realm of possibilty AntiBank May 2016 #170

I do appreciate your replies in this thread. Garrett78 May 2016 #171

if Trump is going to win, he will take OH, I doubt he wins MI, and he absolutely needs AntiBank May 2016 #172

OH+CO+VA+NC alone would't be enough. Garrett78 May 2016 #175

agreed, if all the states you listed went that way Clinton wins 276-262, flip just WI TRump wins 272 AntiBank May 2016 #185

Make Florida blue and I pretty much agree. Garrett78 May 2016 #186

you and I are basically in agreement, NC and FL were my 2 hardest to give to Trump AntiBank May 2016 #188

Some other possibilities: Garrett78 May 2016 #190

If those go Blue we are looking at 1984 in reverse AntiBank May 2016 #192

I wouldn't bet on it due to Clinton being so polarizing but it's not out of the realm of possibility Garrett78 May 2016 #193

AntiBank—No. Think of states' estimated partisan identifications CobaltBlue May 2016 #184

yes, I agree, I was just posting basically the only theoretical way it could happen, I give it less AntiBank May 2016 #189

CNN had a map on this morning... In addition to FL, also VA and MI and CA, couldn't make out the JudyM May 2016 #3

Trump's going to win CA? Garrett78 May 2016 #5

This may be it. JudyM May 2016 #8

That piece is about where Trump thinks he can win. I'm not asking what Trump thinks. Garrett78 May 2016 #13

The folks who think Trump is going to win... Blanks May 2016 #183

Yeah, hypothetical general election match-up polls are historically worthless. Garrett78 May 2016 #187

I think Trump is going to lose red states... Blanks May 2016 #203

I think that's certainly more likely than Clinton losing blue states. Garrett78 May 2016 #206

Did you even read that- it is hilarious. Trump is full bettyellen May 2016 #137

+1 Garrett78 May 2016 #139

The left coast will MFM008 May 2016 #153

Oregon sacto95834 May 2016 #191

[ Never mind. ] CobaltBlue May 2016 #142

See posts #8, #13 and #137. Garrett78 May 2016 #143

Do you think Trump is going to win California? DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #7

No* sacto95834 May 2016 #195

Trump won't be winning California, that isn't even a remote possibility. braddy May 2016 #25

braddy—It would take a landslide in the U.S. Popular Vote CobaltBlue May 2016 #177

Under current demographic shifts, Texas will flip before California does. Garrett78 May 2016 #178

This message was self-deleted by its author CobaltBlue May 2016 #194

We have Pete Wilson to thank.... sacto95834 May 2016 #196

I could see her losing ibegurpard May 2016 #9

Thanks for your response. Garrett78 May 2016 #16

And VA. JudyM May 2016 #26

You could use the google nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #10

Google won't tell me why DU posters think what they think. Garrett78 May 2016 #14

I amgiving you an answer nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #17

But you aren't answering. It's not a gotcha question. It's very straightforward. Garrett78 May 2016 #19

I gave you an answer nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #27

I'm not asking about anyone's strategy. Garrett78 May 2016 #31

And I already told you that the dynamics this year nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #32

It may be hard, but it's not impossible. It's just a prediction, not a sworn affidavit. Garrett78 May 2016 #39

My prediction was that he woudl be the nominee and could get the full enchilada nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #41

"Not very conventional routes" implies this is more complicated than it really is. Garrett78 May 2016 #43

Continue to think this is a normal year nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #44

When someone dodges a simple, straightforward question skepticscott May 2016 #76

Yep. But some managed to answer my question, so that's good. Garrett78 May 2016 #123

Or some of us are tired of warning nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #166

Warn all you want skepticscott May 2016 #180

Mic drop. Garrett78 May 2016 #181

After more than a few conversations nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #182

If you don't like what people are posting in this link why don't you put up a poll. That will limit JudyM May 2016 #29

The question isn't really suited for a poll. Garrett78 May 2016 #34

Ohio, Florida. and maybe New Jersey and Michigan yeoman6987 May 2016 #47

Honestly MFM008 May 2016 #155

Many keep dismissing Trump, yet he keeps winning. Trump, is not a politician, he's RKP5637 May 2016 #58

I am going to use the word I have used in the past nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #63

Trump is a monster of the Republican Party's making. Garrett78 May 2016 #66

Well, but winning against who? skepticscott May 2016 #77

Agree. The game changes after those 16 saltpoint May 2016 #82

Kasich, was IMO the most sane one of the group from outward appearances. n/t RKP5637 May 2016 #87

Trump's wins have been in the Republican saltpoint May 2016 #81

Definitely!!! My hunch is he will look/act/sound like an absolute fool in the GE, a fish out of RKP5637 May 2016 #90

I'm on board with that, RKP5637, and I'm saltpoint May 2016 #91

Also, he's used to generally holding/pulling all the strings and having those at his beckon RKP5637 May 2016 #93

Bam. You are nailing the lad at all extremities. saltpoint May 2016 #94

Thanks for the link! n/t RKP5637 May 2016 #95

That shouldn't be an article MFM008 May 2016 #156

Yep, Trump's success says more about the state of the Republican Party than anything else. Garrett78 May 2016 #100

Agree, Garrett. And what it's saltpoint May 2016 #116

Well, the people in this country were dumb enough to put in ... ebayfool May 2016 #11

Demographics are much different today. Garrett78 May 2016 #15

Of which states - I have not a clue! My response is based on people in general. ebayfool May 2016 #42

That Trump has any support at all is certainly disheartening, if not surprising. Garrett78 May 2016 #45

ebayfool—Lots of people aren't familiar with the map (and they don't need to be). But… CobaltBlue May 2016 #150

You sure did! I enjoyed the read, as well! ebayfool May 2016 #173

ebayfool—Thank you for mentioning your county. (I'll tell you mine—and I have more to say….) CobaltBlue May 2016 #199

With today's demographics Bush Pere and George W Bush loses. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #21

Yeah, I think some underestimate how favorable the electoral map is for Dems these days. Garrett78 May 2016 #54

I don't want to get cocky but it looks like Trump will need > 65% of the white vote to win. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #62

Romney got 59% of the white vote and still won just 206 electoral college votes. Garrett78 May 2016 #70

Hillary has a huge problem with male voters who see her as corrupt. EL34x4 May 2016 #78

The magic number is > 65% of the white vote. Everything else is commentary. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #83

If the same voter who voted GOP in 2014 EL34x4 May 2016 #84

You can't compare mid term participation with presidential election participation because DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #85

Not to mention the mid-terms don't involve national candidates. Garrett78 May 2016 #106

Presidential election electorates are much larger and heterogeneous than mid term electorates. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #110

Good questions PowerToThePeople May 2016 #12

The Republicans thank you for your (non)vote. Chemisse May 2016 #60

Oh, I will not be a non vote. PowerToThePeople May 2016 #96

Ahh. No matter. The result is the same. Chemisse May 2016 #99

Trump might win California. Schwarzenegger did. Dems to Win May 2016 #18

A Californian won a race for governor via a recall election. Garrett78 May 2016 #22

Schwarzenegger courted Hispanics here. He didn't call them rapists , murderers , and drug dealers. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #23

Indiana. n/t Contrary1 May 2016 #20

Anywhere else? Garrett78 May 2016 #24

Indiana DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #30

Yeah, as I wrote above, Indiana wouldn't cut it. Garrett78 May 2016 #36

Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, probably Missouri, Virginia as well. yourout May 2016 #28

Well, that would certainly do the trick, assuming the red states stay red. Garrett78 May 2016 #37

I would add DVRacer May 2016 #119

Quite a brain teaser I suspect. nt BootinUp May 2016 #33

To their credit, quite a few have, in fact, put forth answers. Garrett78 May 2016 #49

But none that has dared to answer skepticscott May 2016 #80

No, but evidence isn't a big priority on DU. Garrett78 May 2016 #121

To think this contest is in the bag pmorlan1 May 2016 #35

Okay, but do you have an answer to my question? Garrett78 May 2016 #38

Nope pmorlan1 May 2016 #40

Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, PA, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, etc... davidn3600 May 2016 #46

Wowzer. Garrett78 May 2016 #48

OK you think trump gets a 50 MFM008 May 2016 #157

That was my thought, but at least he put forth an honest answer. Garrett78 May 2016 #159

The argument is Romney + FL, PA, and MI (nt) Recursion May 2016 #50

Those are popular answers in this thread. Garrett78 May 2016 #52

I agree it's a longshot but he's unpredictable (nt) Recursion May 2016 #53

I'm in the Trump Will Lose camp. saltpoint May 2016 #51

Yeah, he actually makes Dubya seem articulate and nuanced. Garrett78 May 2016 #55

True. I thought Dubya was the pure dregs until saltpoint May 2016 #57

Imagine meeting up with an arrogant braggart like him at a party. Chemisse May 2016 #61

LOL. Yep. I'd be looking around saltpoint May 2016 #64

Outside of the DU bubble, there was a pretty broad consensus... 99Forever May 2016 #56

Which blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win? Garrett78 May 2016 #65

Doesn't matter. 99Forever May 2016 #67

Different people are pissed off for different reasons. And have been or years. Garrett78 May 2016 #69

Been hearing that since Trump announced. 99Forever May 2016 #71

Again, him winning the nomination says a lot about the Republican Party. Garrett78 May 2016 #72

Actually it does. 99Forever May 2016 #73

How does him winning the Clown Car Battle speak to his chances in November? Garrett78 May 2016 #101

Trump isn't facing a very likely indictment(s) at end of several ongoing FBI investigations. 99Forever May 2016 #105

But how he does among non-white males is key to this whole discussion. Garrett78 May 2016 #107

No, actually it isn't. 99Forever May 2016 #112

Yet you can't say which blue/swing states you think Trump will win. Garrett78 May 2016 #117

We already went down that road. 99Forever May 2016 #122

I didn't say it was your job. But it was the point of this thread. Garrett78 May 2016 #129

He (and Bernie) forthemiddle May 2016 #89

Independents and Trump's claim that he's bringing new voters into the fold. Garrett78 May 2016 #104

Whether he wins or loses depends mostly on whether DJ13 May 2016 #59

19 states (plus DC) have been won by the Dem candidate in 6 straight presidential elections. Garrett78 May 2016 #68

Garrett78—Make that 18 (not 19) states. CobaltBlue May 2016 #146

It seems WaPo had it wrong. Garrett78 May 2016 #149

Garrett78—It was in his phrasing. CobaltBlue May 2016 #154

Yeah it obviously should have said 18 (plus DC). Oh well. Garrett78 May 2016 #158

I think there is a very good chance he'll win in my state, New Hampshire. Vinca May 2016 #74

Which other blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win? Garrett78 May 2016 #108

I think he has a chance for Ohio and Florida. Vinca May 2016 #133

Florida and Ohio are crucial. Garrett78 May 2016 #136

Quite honestly, I think our only hope is the Libertarians splitting the vote on the right. Vinca May 2016 #144

I don't see any 3rd party candidate impacting the result in any of the states. Garrett78 May 2016 #152

I think the Libertarians will attract mainstream Republicans. Vinca May 2016 #162

If so, that's all the more reason to believe Clinton will win. Garrett78 May 2016 #164

You left out one inconvenient truth, the GOP is more united. B Calm May 2016 #75

More united than when? The GOP establishment is up in arms over Trump being the nominee. Garrett78 May 2016 #109

It will be on Democrats to make sure Trump is never president, as Michael Moore Thinkingabout May 2016 #79

It's Clinton's map to lose bigwillq May 2016 #86

They assume everyone hates Hillary as much as they do nt geek tragedy May 2016 #88

In late April of this year -- saltpoint May 2016 #92

So, which blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win? Garrett78 May 2016 #111

My emphasis was Hillary's weakness related saltpoint May 2016 #114

That's pretty much how I see things going, as well. Garrett78 May 2016 #120

I agree with ^^^ MFM008 May 2016 #168

its easy to figure out imo restorefreedom May 2016 #97

Oh no, not this again. Garrett78 May 2016 #113

hillary can barely keep off bernie except in the south restorefreedom May 2016 #126

Your perception is not reality. Garrett78 May 2016 #134

i believe that states are in play that would not be normally restorefreedom May 2016 #198

I'm sure you like your personal reality just fine. Garrett78 May 2016 #202

I'm not exactly sure who will win, but given the current mood of Exilednight May 2016 #98

What?!? The Obama Coalition is the reason she's well on her way to being nominated. Garrett78 May 2016 #115

the Obama coalition isn't even turning out to the polls. exit polling Exilednight May 2016 #145

Do you have a link? Garrett78 May 2016 #151

what makes you think she's doing well? she's 4 million votes behind where she was in 2008. Exilednight May 2016 #200

So, that's a no, you don't have a link to back up your claim. Didn't think so. Garrett78 May 2016 #201

Here's over 40 links. All you need to do is look at exit polling for every state and look for the Exilednight May 2016 #204

That's such an epic logic fail that I don't even know how to respond. Garrett78 May 2016 #205

I doubt he will win-he will take red states larkrake May 2016 #102

I simply think taking victory for granted is a bad idea Scootaloo May 2016 #103

I agree, but that isn't the question. Garrett78 May 2016 #118

"Many"? Like who? Scootaloo May 2016 #124

You can hardly walk hrough GDP without tripping over a poster who says Trump will beat Clinton. Garrett78 May 2016 #132

I believe he will win NC ms liberty May 2016 #125

But NC wouldn't be enough for Trump to reach 270. Garrett78 May 2016 #130

if he can't win NC ms liberty May 2016 #138

NC being a swing state is a recent development. Garrett78 May 2016 #140

ms liberty—That is correct. CobaltBlue May 2016 #147

Totally agree marions ghost May 2016 #131

Garrett78—The path for Donald Trump to win a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency… CobaltBlue May 2016 #127

I'm afraid of Pa., Oh. & Mi. IF all the very angry ex-steel workers BELIEVE napi21 May 2016 #128

She's going to easily win, and I think Bernie and Busters really know this gollygee May 2016 #135

here is a scenario map AntiBank May 2016 #163

Those maps show the best case scenario for Trump. There won't be a Trump landslide. Garrett78 May 2016 #167

here is the best case for Trump (within reason) AntiBank May 2016 #176

It's up to the media Buzz cook May 2016 #165

Gerrymandering and favorable demographics allow the GOP to win congressional seats. Garrett78 May 2016 #169

Denigrating our nominee is the last resort... beachbumbob May 2016 #179

Scenario Maps of up to +10 national shifts: Trump and Hillary CobaltBlue May 2016 #197