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Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
118. I agree, but that isn't the question.
Sun May 29, 2016, 01:02 PM
May 2016

Many have suggested Trump will crush Clinton. So, they shouldn't have any trouble predicting which blue states and which swing states they foresee him winning. Quite a few have listed some, and I appreciate those responses, because I really am wondering why it is some think Trump will make it to 270 and beyond.

I think she starts with a considerable advantage but I think she could easily lose cali May 2016 #1
I suspect Clinton will win all 3 of those. Garrett78 May 2016 #2
You asked. cali May 2016 #4
I did, and I appreciate your response. Garrett78 May 2016 #6
Garrett78—No Republican can pull together a winning map without both Florida and Ohio CobaltBlue May 2016 #141
Agreed. I don't see Trump or any Republican reaching 270 w/out both of those states. Garrett78 May 2016 #148
Garrett78—Not likely CobaltBlue May 2016 #160
No, it's not likely that Clinton can win without either FL or OH. Garrett78 May 2016 #161
Garrett78—I think we agree CobaltBlue May 2016 #174
here is a way, not likely but is in the realm of possibilty AntiBank May 2016 #170
I do appreciate your replies in this thread. Garrett78 May 2016 #171
if Trump is going to win, he will take OH, I doubt he wins MI, and he absolutely needs AntiBank May 2016 #172
OH+CO+VA+NC alone would't be enough. Garrett78 May 2016 #175
agreed, if all the states you listed went that way Clinton wins 276-262, flip just WI TRump wins 272 AntiBank May 2016 #185
Make Florida blue and I pretty much agree. Garrett78 May 2016 #186
you and I are basically in agreement, NC and FL were my 2 hardest to give to Trump AntiBank May 2016 #188
Some other possibilities: Garrett78 May 2016 #190
If those go Blue we are looking at 1984 in reverse AntiBank May 2016 #192
I wouldn't bet on it due to Clinton being so polarizing but it's not out of the realm of possibility Garrett78 May 2016 #193
AntiBank—No. Think of states' estimated partisan identifications CobaltBlue May 2016 #184
yes, I agree, I was just posting basically the only theoretical way it could happen, I give it less AntiBank May 2016 #189
CNN had a map on this morning... In addition to FL, also VA and MI and CA, couldn't make out the JudyM May 2016 #3
Trump's going to win CA? Garrett78 May 2016 #5
This may be it. JudyM May 2016 #8
That piece is about where Trump thinks he can win. I'm not asking what Trump thinks. Garrett78 May 2016 #13
The folks who think Trump is going to win... Blanks May 2016 #183
Yeah, hypothetical general election match-up polls are historically worthless. Garrett78 May 2016 #187
I think Trump is going to lose red states... Blanks May 2016 #203
I think that's certainly more likely than Clinton losing blue states. Garrett78 May 2016 #206
Did you even read that- it is hilarious. Trump is full bettyellen May 2016 #137
+1 Garrett78 May 2016 #139
The left coast will MFM008 May 2016 #153
Oregon sacto95834 May 2016 #191
[ Never mind. ] CobaltBlue May 2016 #142
See posts #8, #13 and #137. Garrett78 May 2016 #143
Do you think Trump is going to win California? DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #7
No* sacto95834 May 2016 #195
Trump won't be winning California, that isn't even a remote possibility. braddy May 2016 #25
braddy—It would take a landslide in the U.S. Popular Vote CobaltBlue May 2016 #177
Under current demographic shifts, Texas will flip before California does. Garrett78 May 2016 #178
This message was self-deleted by its author CobaltBlue May 2016 #194
We have Pete Wilson to thank.... sacto95834 May 2016 #196
I could see her losing ibegurpard May 2016 #9
Thanks for your response. Garrett78 May 2016 #16
And VA. JudyM May 2016 #26
You could use the google nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #10
Google won't tell me why DU posters think what they think. Garrett78 May 2016 #14
I amgiving you an answer nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #17
But you aren't answering. It's not a gotcha question. It's very straightforward. Garrett78 May 2016 #19
I gave you an answer nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #27
I'm not asking about anyone's strategy. Garrett78 May 2016 #31
And I already told you that the dynamics this year nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #32
It may be hard, but it's not impossible. It's just a prediction, not a sworn affidavit. Garrett78 May 2016 #39
My prediction was that he woudl be the nominee and could get the full enchilada nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #41
"Not very conventional routes" implies this is more complicated than it really is. Garrett78 May 2016 #43
Continue to think this is a normal year nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #44
When someone dodges a simple, straightforward question skepticscott May 2016 #76
Yep. But some managed to answer my question, so that's good. Garrett78 May 2016 #123
Or some of us are tired of warning nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #166
Warn all you want skepticscott May 2016 #180
Mic drop. Garrett78 May 2016 #181
After more than a few conversations nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #182
If you don't like what people are posting in this link why don't you put up a poll. That will limit JudyM May 2016 #29
The question isn't really suited for a poll. Garrett78 May 2016 #34
Ohio, Florida. and maybe New Jersey and Michigan yeoman6987 May 2016 #47
Honestly MFM008 May 2016 #155
Many keep dismissing Trump, yet he keeps winning. Trump, is not a politician, he's RKP5637 May 2016 #58
I am going to use the word I have used in the past nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #63
Trump is a monster of the Republican Party's making. Garrett78 May 2016 #66
Well, but winning against who? skepticscott May 2016 #77
Agree. The game changes after those 16 saltpoint May 2016 #82
Kasich, was IMO the most sane one of the group from outward appearances. n/t RKP5637 May 2016 #87
Trump's wins have been in the Republican saltpoint May 2016 #81
Definitely!!! My hunch is he will look/act/sound like an absolute fool in the GE, a fish out of RKP5637 May 2016 #90
I'm on board with that, RKP5637, and I'm saltpoint May 2016 #91
Also, he's used to generally holding/pulling all the strings and having those at his beckon RKP5637 May 2016 #93
Bam. You are nailing the lad at all extremities. saltpoint May 2016 #94
Thanks for the link! n/t RKP5637 May 2016 #95
That shouldn't be an article MFM008 May 2016 #156
Yep, Trump's success says more about the state of the Republican Party than anything else. Garrett78 May 2016 #100
Agree, Garrett. And what it's saltpoint May 2016 #116
Well, the people in this country were dumb enough to put in ... ebayfool May 2016 #11
Demographics are much different today. Garrett78 May 2016 #15
Of which states - I have not a clue! My response is based on people in general. ebayfool May 2016 #42
That Trump has any support at all is certainly disheartening, if not surprising. Garrett78 May 2016 #45
ebayfool—Lots of people aren't familiar with the map (and they don't need to be). But… CobaltBlue May 2016 #150
You sure did! I enjoyed the read, as well! ebayfool May 2016 #173
ebayfool—Thank you for mentioning your county. (I'll tell you mine—and I have more to say….) CobaltBlue May 2016 #199
With today's demographics Bush Pere and George W Bush loses. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #21
Yeah, I think some underestimate how favorable the electoral map is for Dems these days. Garrett78 May 2016 #54
I don't want to get cocky but it looks like Trump will need > 65% of the white vote to win. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #62
Romney got 59% of the white vote and still won just 206 electoral college votes. Garrett78 May 2016 #70
Hillary has a huge problem with male voters who see her as corrupt. EL34x4 May 2016 #78
The magic number is > 65% of the white vote. Everything else is commentary. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #83
If the same voter who voted GOP in 2014 EL34x4 May 2016 #84
You can't compare mid term participation with presidential election participation because DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #85
Not to mention the mid-terms don't involve national candidates. Garrett78 May 2016 #106
Presidential election electorates are much larger and heterogeneous than mid term electorates. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #110
Good questions PowerToThePeople May 2016 #12
The Republicans thank you for your (non)vote. Chemisse May 2016 #60
Oh, I will not be a non vote. PowerToThePeople May 2016 #96
Ahh. No matter. The result is the same. Chemisse May 2016 #99
Trump might win California. Schwarzenegger did. Dems to Win May 2016 #18
A Californian won a race for governor via a recall election. Garrett78 May 2016 #22
Schwarzenegger courted Hispanics here. He didn't call them rapists , murderers , and drug dealers. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #23
Indiana. n/t Contrary1 May 2016 #20
Anywhere else? Garrett78 May 2016 #24
Indiana DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #30
Yeah, as I wrote above, Indiana wouldn't cut it. Garrett78 May 2016 #36
Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, probably Missouri, Virginia as well. yourout May 2016 #28
Well, that would certainly do the trick, assuming the red states stay red. Garrett78 May 2016 #37
I would add DVRacer May 2016 #119
Quite a brain teaser I suspect. nt BootinUp May 2016 #33
To their credit, quite a few have, in fact, put forth answers. Garrett78 May 2016 #49
But none that has dared to answer skepticscott May 2016 #80
No, but evidence isn't a big priority on DU. Garrett78 May 2016 #121
To think this contest is in the bag pmorlan1 May 2016 #35
Okay, but do you have an answer to my question? Garrett78 May 2016 #38
Nope pmorlan1 May 2016 #40
Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, PA, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, etc... davidn3600 May 2016 #46
Wowzer. Garrett78 May 2016 #48
OK you think trump gets a 50 MFM008 May 2016 #157
That was my thought, but at least he put forth an honest answer. Garrett78 May 2016 #159
The argument is Romney + FL, PA, and MI (nt) Recursion May 2016 #50
Those are popular answers in this thread. Garrett78 May 2016 #52
I agree it's a longshot but he's unpredictable (nt) Recursion May 2016 #53
I'm in the Trump Will Lose camp. saltpoint May 2016 #51
Yeah, he actually makes Dubya seem articulate and nuanced. Garrett78 May 2016 #55
True. I thought Dubya was the pure dregs until saltpoint May 2016 #57
Imagine meeting up with an arrogant braggart like him at a party. Chemisse May 2016 #61
LOL. Yep. I'd be looking around saltpoint May 2016 #64
Outside of the DU bubble, there was a pretty broad consensus... 99Forever May 2016 #56
Which blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win? Garrett78 May 2016 #65
Doesn't matter. 99Forever May 2016 #67
Different people are pissed off for different reasons. And have been or years. Garrett78 May 2016 #69
Been hearing that since Trump announced. 99Forever May 2016 #71
Again, him winning the nomination says a lot about the Republican Party. Garrett78 May 2016 #72
Actually it does. 99Forever May 2016 #73
How does him winning the Clown Car Battle speak to his chances in November? Garrett78 May 2016 #101
Trump isn't facing a very likely indictment(s) at end of several ongoing FBI investigations. 99Forever May 2016 #105
But how he does among non-white males is key to this whole discussion. Garrett78 May 2016 #107
No, actually it isn't. 99Forever May 2016 #112
Yet you can't say which blue/swing states you think Trump will win. Garrett78 May 2016 #117
We already went down that road. 99Forever May 2016 #122
I didn't say it was your job. But it was the point of this thread. Garrett78 May 2016 #129
He (and Bernie) forthemiddle May 2016 #89
Independents and Trump's claim that he's bringing new voters into the fold. Garrett78 May 2016 #104
Whether he wins or loses depends mostly on whether DJ13 May 2016 #59
19 states (plus DC) have been won by the Dem candidate in 6 straight presidential elections. Garrett78 May 2016 #68
Garrett78—Make that 18 (not 19) states. CobaltBlue May 2016 #146
It seems WaPo had it wrong. Garrett78 May 2016 #149
Garrett78—It was in his phrasing. CobaltBlue May 2016 #154
Yeah it obviously should have said 18 (plus DC). Oh well. Garrett78 May 2016 #158
I think there is a very good chance he'll win in my state, New Hampshire. Vinca May 2016 #74
Which other blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win? Garrett78 May 2016 #108
I think he has a chance for Ohio and Florida. Vinca May 2016 #133
Florida and Ohio are crucial. Garrett78 May 2016 #136
Quite honestly, I think our only hope is the Libertarians splitting the vote on the right. Vinca May 2016 #144
I don't see any 3rd party candidate impacting the result in any of the states. Garrett78 May 2016 #152
I think the Libertarians will attract mainstream Republicans. Vinca May 2016 #162
If so, that's all the more reason to believe Clinton will win. Garrett78 May 2016 #164
You left out one inconvenient truth, the GOP is more united. B Calm May 2016 #75
More united than when? The GOP establishment is up in arms over Trump being the nominee. Garrett78 May 2016 #109
It will be on Democrats to make sure Trump is never president, as Michael Moore Thinkingabout May 2016 #79
It's Clinton's map to lose bigwillq May 2016 #86
They assume everyone hates Hillary as much as they do nt geek tragedy May 2016 #88
In late April of this year -- saltpoint May 2016 #92
So, which blue states and which swing states do you think he'll win? Garrett78 May 2016 #111
My emphasis was Hillary's weakness related saltpoint May 2016 #114
That's pretty much how I see things going, as well. Garrett78 May 2016 #120
I agree with ^^^ MFM008 May 2016 #168
its easy to figure out imo restorefreedom May 2016 #97
Oh no, not this again. Garrett78 May 2016 #113
hillary can barely keep off bernie except in the south restorefreedom May 2016 #126
Your perception is not reality. Garrett78 May 2016 #134
i believe that states are in play that would not be normally restorefreedom May 2016 #198
I'm sure you like your personal reality just fine. Garrett78 May 2016 #202
I'm not exactly sure who will win, but given the current mood of Exilednight May 2016 #98
What?!? The Obama Coalition is the reason she's well on her way to being nominated. Garrett78 May 2016 #115
the Obama coalition isn't even turning out to the polls. exit polling Exilednight May 2016 #145
Do you have a link? Garrett78 May 2016 #151
what makes you think she's doing well? she's 4 million votes behind where she was in 2008. Exilednight May 2016 #200
So, that's a no, you don't have a link to back up your claim. Didn't think so. Garrett78 May 2016 #201
Here's over 40 links. All you need to do is look at exit polling for every state and look for the Exilednight May 2016 #204
That's such an epic logic fail that I don't even know how to respond. Garrett78 May 2016 #205
I doubt he will win-he will take red states larkrake May 2016 #102
I simply think taking victory for granted is a bad idea Scootaloo May 2016 #103
I agree, but that isn't the question. Garrett78 May 2016 #118
"Many"? Like who? Scootaloo May 2016 #124
You can hardly walk hrough GDP without tripping over a poster who says Trump will beat Clinton. Garrett78 May 2016 #132
I believe he will win NC ms liberty May 2016 #125
But NC wouldn't be enough for Trump to reach 270. Garrett78 May 2016 #130
if he can't win NC ms liberty May 2016 #138
NC being a swing state is a recent development. Garrett78 May 2016 #140
ms liberty—That is correct. CobaltBlue May 2016 #147
Totally agree marions ghost May 2016 #131
Garrett78—The path for Donald Trump to win a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency… CobaltBlue May 2016 #127
I'm afraid of Pa., Oh. & Mi. IF all the very angry ex-steel workers BELIEVE napi21 May 2016 #128
She's going to easily win, and I think Bernie and Busters really know this gollygee May 2016 #135
here is a scenario map AntiBank May 2016 #163
Those maps show the best case scenario for Trump. There won't be a Trump landslide. Garrett78 May 2016 #167
here is the best case for Trump (within reason) AntiBank May 2016 #176
It's up to the media Buzz cook May 2016 #165
Gerrymandering and favorable demographics allow the GOP to win congressional seats. Garrett78 May 2016 #169
Denigrating our nominee is the last resort... beachbumbob May 2016 #179
Scenario Maps of up to +10 national shifts: Trump and Hillary CobaltBlue May 2016 #197
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