2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)F.Y.I. In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected under historically uncommon circumstances: his electoral-vote score and his popular-vote margin were underperformances of his 2008 results. Usually a second-term re-elected incumbent gains.
In 2012, Mitt Romney shifted only 3.40 of the 7.26 percentage points by which fellow Republican John McCain lost in the U.S. Popular Vote from 2008.
44 states shifted in Romney's direction. There were three 2008 Democratic-carried states which shifted in Obama's direction: Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. But there were also three 2008 Republican-carried states which shifted in Obama's direction: Alaska, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Alaska, home state of McCain v.p., Sarah Palin, stood out: McCain won it by R+21.54. Romney won it by R+13.99. That meant that, while Romney needed to shift +7.27 to win a Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote by at least R+0.01, the state of Alaska actually shifted D+7.55.
All in all, Romney only saw nine states shift by the +7.27 level he needed to win over the popular vote: President Obama's home state Illinois; Indiana (Republican pickup); Missouri; Montana; North Dakota; South Dakota; Utah; West Virginia; and Wyoming.
What was I essentially saying about Florida and Ohio (as well as Virginia and Colorado) is that they are voting close to national outcomes. That's a part of why they are bellwether states. We would have to have a presidential election in which the winner carried the popular vote by no more than a full percentage point (say, 50 to 49 percent) in order for any one of those four states to not carry. Given that Barack Obama won nationally by a margin of nearly D+4, and that the 2000 and 2008 party-flipping presidential elections were national shifts of about +8 and +10, if Donald Trump wins a Republican pickup of the presidency, here in 2016, he will get all four of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. But, if the White House gets retained by the Democrats, with likely nomination for Hillary Clinton, and the party wins a third consecutive presidential election cycle, Hillary could dip a couple percentage points
but, if the U.S. Senate flips Democratic, that means no Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump, and because a Democratic shift took hold nationally for those U.S. Senate seats, it's likely there would be further Democratic support at the presidential level. In that case, all four of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado would carry for a presidential election-winning Hillary Clinton.
But, again
the Republicans are averaging between 7 to 9 electoral votes per carried state, post-1980s. George W. Bush won 9 electoral votes per carried state in 2000 (he won 30 states for 271 electoral votes) and 2004 (he won 31 states for 286 electoral votes). On this trajectory, the Republicans appear to need to carry 30 states. (Although flipping Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado brings the electoral-vote score to a winning 275. That score divided by 28 states averages 9 electoral votes per carried state.)