2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)A Republican winning California would require a landslide in the U.S. Popular Vote close to +15 (say, 57 to 42 percent). No Republican presidential candidate has reached that level since Ronald Reagan's +18.21 and 49 states, for 525 electoral votes, back in 1984.
California has moved far from the Republicans. It is the opposite of Texas, which would also require a Democratic to win nationally by about +15 (again, that would be an estimate of 57 to 42 percent) in order for that winning Democrat to be able to carry Texas.
None of this impossible. The scenarios are highly unlikely. If a winning Republican or a winning Democrat were to manage to pull in the other's turf
it's because that winning Republican or Democrat won 40 states and more than 400 electoral votes in an epic landslide (which happened to pull in a host of states which are normally carried by the opposition party).