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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)182. After more than a few conversations
Partisans are unable to see the tip of their noses. The problem is that we get to pay for your idiocy...for the record, both national parties. So spare me
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A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]
Garrett78
May 2016
OP
Garrett78—No Republican can pull together a winning map without both Florida and Ohio
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#141
Agreed. I don't see Trump or any Republican reaching 270 w/out both of those states.
Garrett78
May 2016
#148
if Trump is going to win, he will take OH, I doubt he wins MI, and he absolutely needs
AntiBank
May 2016
#172
agreed, if all the states you listed went that way Clinton wins 276-262, flip just WI TRump wins 272
AntiBank
May 2016
#185
you and I are basically in agreement, NC and FL were my 2 hardest to give to Trump
AntiBank
May 2016
#188
I wouldn't bet on it due to Clinton being so polarizing but it's not out of the realm of possibility
Garrett78
May 2016
#193
yes, I agree, I was just posting basically the only theoretical way it could happen, I give it less
AntiBank
May 2016
#189
CNN had a map on this morning... In addition to FL, also VA and MI and CA, couldn't make out the
JudyM
May 2016
#3
That piece is about where Trump thinks he can win. I'm not asking what Trump thinks.
Garrett78
May 2016
#13
Yeah, hypothetical general election match-up polls are historically worthless.
Garrett78
May 2016
#187
But you aren't answering. It's not a gotcha question. It's very straightforward.
Garrett78
May 2016
#19
It may be hard, but it's not impossible. It's just a prediction, not a sworn affidavit.
Garrett78
May 2016
#39
My prediction was that he woudl be the nominee and could get the full enchilada
nadinbrzezinski
May 2016
#41
"Not very conventional routes" implies this is more complicated than it really is.
Garrett78
May 2016
#43
If you don't like what people are posting in this link why don't you put up a poll. That will limit
JudyM
May 2016
#29
Many keep dismissing Trump, yet he keeps winning. Trump, is not a politician, he's
RKP5637
May 2016
#58
Definitely!!! My hunch is he will look/act/sound like an absolute fool in the GE, a fish out of
RKP5637
May 2016
#90
Also, he's used to generally holding/pulling all the strings and having those at his beckon
RKP5637
May 2016
#93
Yep, Trump's success says more about the state of the Republican Party than anything else.
Garrett78
May 2016
#100
Of which states - I have not a clue! My response is based on people in general.
ebayfool
May 2016
#42
That Trump has any support at all is certainly disheartening, if not surprising.
Garrett78
May 2016
#45
ebayfool—Lots of people aren't familiar with the map (and they don't need to be). But…
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#150
ebayfool—Thank you for mentioning your county. (I'll tell you mine—and I have more to say….)
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#199
Yeah, I think some underestimate how favorable the electoral map is for Dems these days.
Garrett78
May 2016
#54
I don't want to get cocky but it looks like Trump will need > 65% of the white vote to win.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#62
Romney got 59% of the white vote and still won just 206 electoral college votes.
Garrett78
May 2016
#70
The magic number is > 65% of the white vote. Everything else is commentary.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#83
You can't compare mid term participation with presidential election participation because
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#85
Presidential election electorates are much larger and heterogeneous than mid term electorates.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#110
Schwarzenegger courted Hispanics here. He didn't call them rapists , murderers , and drug dealers.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#23
Different people are pissed off for different reasons. And have been or years.
Garrett78
May 2016
#69
Trump isn't facing a very likely indictment(s) at end of several ongoing FBI investigations.
99Forever
May 2016
#105
19 states (plus DC) have been won by the Dem candidate in 6 straight presidential elections.
Garrett78
May 2016
#68
Quite honestly, I think our only hope is the Libertarians splitting the vote on the right.
Vinca
May 2016
#144
I don't see any 3rd party candidate impacting the result in any of the states.
Garrett78
May 2016
#152
More united than when? The GOP establishment is up in arms over Trump being the nominee.
Garrett78
May 2016
#109
It will be on Democrats to make sure Trump is never president, as Michael Moore
Thinkingabout
May 2016
#79
What?!? The Obama Coalition is the reason she's well on her way to being nominated.
Garrett78
May 2016
#115
what makes you think she's doing well? she's 4 million votes behind where she was in 2008.
Exilednight
May 2016
#200
So, that's a no, you don't have a link to back up your claim. Didn't think so.
Garrett78
May 2016
#201
Here's over 40 links. All you need to do is look at exit polling for every state and look for the
Exilednight
May 2016
#204
You can hardly walk hrough GDP without tripping over a poster who says Trump will beat Clinton.
Garrett78
May 2016
#132
Garrett78—The path for Donald Trump to win a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency…
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#127
Those maps show the best case scenario for Trump. There won't be a Trump landslide.
Garrett78
May 2016
#167
Gerrymandering and favorable demographics allow the GOP to win congressional seats.
Garrett78
May 2016
#169