2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]Exilednight
(9,359 posts)Question of who they voted for in 2008. Very few who voted for Obama are voting in this primary. Hillary is getting slightly lower turnout this cycle than she did in 2008, and sanders is getting less than her.
I'll give it to you in simple math. If Hillary received 100 votes in 2008 in Illinois, and Obama received 110; that's a total of 220 votes with Obama winning in 2008.
Fast forward to today and (Round numbers to keep it simple) Hillary receives 90 votes in Illinois, and Bernie receives 80 votes; Hillary wins with her most of her same voters from 2008, but less overall voters.
If the Obama coalition were turning out for Hillary, she would have over 30 million votes this primary cycle, but the reality is she actually has less than she did in 2008.