HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » The time has come to take... » Reply #7

Response to grantcart (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 09:42 AM

7. It looks like that link takes me to an updated page.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll_accuracy_2012_presidential_election_110712.pdf

Note the UPDATED time:

Poll Accuracy in the 2012 Presidential Election
—Initial Report, November 7, 2012 (UPDATED 3:30PM)—
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science, Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulos@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far
off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, pre-election
polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 1.07 percentage
points on Election Day, which is only about 1.13 percentage points away from the current
estimate of a 2.2-point Obama margin in the national popular vote (Obama 50.3% versus
Romney 48.1%).
Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess predictive accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 28 polling organizations. Most (22) polls overestimated Romney support, while six (6)
overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national preelection
polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the predictive accuracy of their final, national
pre-election estimates (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Ipsos/Reuters
2. YouGov
3. PPP (D)
3. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
4. Angus-Reid*
5. ABC/WP*
6. Pew Research*
6. Hartford Courant/UConn*
7. Purple Strategies
8. NBC/WSJCostas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
...


It still reflects PPP as an accurate poll - not a big deal - it may have to do with the page being retained in memory.

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
grantcart Nov 2012 OP
Dark n Stormy Knight Nov 2012 #1
Cicada Nov 2012 #2
grantcart Nov 2012 #6
Jim__ Nov 2012 #3
grantcart Nov 2012 #5
LineLineLineReply It looks like that link takes me to an updated page.
Jim__ Nov 2012 #7
grantcart Nov 2012 #10
Jim__ Nov 2012 #22
grantcart Nov 2012 #23
outsideworld Nov 2012 #4
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #8
bornskeptic Nov 2012 #9
grantcart Nov 2012 #11
bornskeptic Nov 2012 #12
Xyzse Nov 2012 #13
grantcart Nov 2012 #17
Xyzse Nov 2012 #19
former9thward Nov 2012 #14
outsideworld Nov 2012 #15
former9thward Nov 2012 #16
outsideworld Nov 2012 #24
former9thward Nov 2012 #27
grantcart Nov 2012 #18
former9thward Nov 2012 #21
PoliticalBiker Nov 2012 #20
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #25
grantcart Nov 2012 #29
oswaldactedalone Nov 2012 #26
grantcart Nov 2012 #28
DCBob Nov 2012 #30
Please login to view edit histories.