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2016 Postmortem

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

11. I expected a point or two movement in the national polls to HRC this week

Reply to DanTex (Reply #10)

Wed Sep 14, 2016, 10:11 PM

Sep 2016

that seems to have happened.

That pushes close states, like FL and OH, over to Trump.

If his share of the national vote ebbs again, we will see polls we like better in the close states.

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Stop with the "CNN didn't poll anyone under 50" [View all] Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 OP

It seems harder than it used to be to find data on the demographics of respondents. pnwmom Sep 2016 #1

I posted links machomaas Sep 2016 #3

Yes, MOE would be > 8% Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #5

I saw that but I didn't see how many respondents they had in each category. They used to include pnwmom Sep 2016 #15

Your concern concerning this concern is concerning. eom MohRokTah Sep 2016 #2

Who's concerned? Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #4

Fair to ask if they interviewed ENOUGH people under 50 MadBadger Sep 2016 #6

sure. always fair to ask Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #7

MoE is calculated from sample size and they are inversely proportional. Persondem Sep 2016 #8

aware Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #9

Agreed. It's a bad poll for us, but a legit poll. Poll truthering doesn't accomplish anything. DanTex Sep 2016 #10

I expected a point or two movement in the national polls to HRC this week Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #11

CNN only polled 18% of voters under 50 (less than half) displacedtexan Sep 2016 #12

18% triron Sep 2016 #13

Some subgroups represent too small a share of the pop of Ohio to produce an accaptable sample error factfinder_77 Sep 2016 #14

If you're going to get into the weeds of the cross tabs on this one piechartking Sep 2016 #16

Only 18% of their sample was under 50. Less than half of what it should have been. pnwmom Sep 2016 #17