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2016 Postmortem

Imperialism Inc.

(2,504 posts)

13. Three reasons.

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 03:30 PM

Oct 2016

1) The polls actually showed close decision in Brexit so it wasn't a major upset. It was the prediction markets that failed not polls.

2) Republicans are losing the registration battle as far as we can tell

3) 80% of the people that voted for Trump in the primaries had also voted in the 2012 presidential election, so there is no reason to suspect he is actually drawing in new voters.

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Highlight:

Would love to hear from Nate Silver and his ilk... [View all] LAS14 Oct 2016 OP

Silver is a statistician BainsBane Oct 2016 #1

But his job is to understand how to make... LAS14 Oct 2016 #5

Yes, and he adjusts his model to make it more accurate BainsBane Oct 2016 #8

I dunno - OhZone Oct 2016 #2

Dunno about UK, but a big part of the Columbia... LAS14 Oct 2016 #4

Colombia alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #7

Brexit is often cited but was different remaineruk Oct 2016 #3

If democrats stay home and not vote trump wins...what else do you beachbumbob Oct 2016 #6

lolz obamanut2012 Oct 2016 #9

Keeping hope alive alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #11

Well, for one thing they'd have to be registering. n/t pnwmom Oct 2016 #10

I don't think he will tell you that, but..... Adrahil Oct 2016 #12

Three reasons. Imperialism Inc. Oct 2016 #13