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2016 Postmortem

Ardoewaan

(144 posts)

1. I think so too

Reply to RBInMaine (Original post)

Thu Oct 13, 2016, 05:56 AM

Oct 2016

The model is based on rational agents. Rational candidates try to widen their audience during the general election, while Trump just throws out more red meat for his own voter base.

The polls do indicate that this is a losing strategy. I think Hillary just has to keep up the pressure, let Trump be Trump and go high.

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How soon before Allan Lichtman changes his prediction? [View all] RBInMaine Oct 2016 OP

I think so too Ardoewaan Oct 2016 #1

Mostly agree, but they do need to also keep attacking Trump as an "unfit" candidate. Every campaign RBInMaine Oct 2016 #2

You're right Ardoewaan Oct 2016 #3

The candidate herself needs to do both the attack message and the positive message. RBInMaine Oct 2016 #8

i think johnson won't get 5%, and the model will have correctly predicted hillary. unblock Oct 2016 #4

He will not change his prediction Cicada Oct 2016 #5

Several of his categories are subjective and not empirical bluestateguy Oct 2016 #6

I'm very surprise that he says the Iran Nuclear Agreement doesn't count as a success bigdarryl Oct 2016 #10

But he left himself TWO outs: If Johnson gets below 5% or Trump being so unusual. The model might RBInMaine Oct 2016 #7

And will it discredit him if he is wrong? RBInMaine Oct 2016 #9

Not with me. A good model doesn't have to be perfect. Cicada Oct 2016 #11