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4. i think johnson won't get 5%, and the model will have correctly predicted hillary.
Thu Oct 13, 2016, 08:31 AM
Oct 2016

basically, lichtman just went into a panic because he felt pressured to make the call, and instead of saying it all depended on johnson breaking 5% or not, he called it for trump and hedged in a way that cast doubt on his entire model instead of sticking to his guns.

he handled it very poorly. now even if the model turns out to have been correct all along, he's done damage to it by saying that any new election might break it. that's always true, in a sense, but that's not how you promote a model! just say the model's prediction, and if it breaks, then you talk about and maybe fix it afterwards.

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