This supposed "complacency" fear

[whatthehey]

3. ***Sorry - Correction. Will leave OP unedited for context***

The correlation overall is slightly NEGATIVE. It's still frankly worthless because it's so weak as already stated when I foolishly made a mathematical error (consistency is key) but as I was seeing if there was a D vs R effect and found this error I did find an interesting difference.


Overall the correlation between turnout and margin is -0.16. As certainty increases, turnout does indeed decrease overall with a tenuous at best connection between the two.

But for Dem positive margins that correlation is -0.04. So in other words in Dem states there is essentially no relationship whatsoever between turnout and margin. From DC to OH, turnout and margin are unrelated.

In R states though its -0.34. For those not deep into stats stuff that's starting to get into could-be significant territory. In other words, unlike D states, there does seem to be a BIT of a negative connection in that higher margin R states have lower turnout. To be honest I doubt it's causal. We are dealing here with WV OK et al so education and poverty more likely driving factors but it is there. But for them, not us. Exactly opposite to who is worried about it.

2012 data only. Would be interesting but too time consuming to look at multiple cycles and final polls vs results etc, but not a strong enough signal there is any real meat there to do the work really.