2016 Postmortem

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

15. One day closer

Reply to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:37 PM

Oct 2016

Nothing significant has happened to alter the dynamic of the race. That's a victory.

Besides, in a race that was very close prior to debate one you can't expect either candidate to continue to gain day after day after day. Not logical. It's like a long standing .500 football team trying to win 6 or 8 in a row.

I'm very happy where we are. Late margins in general elections are hellish to reverse, as opposed to primaries which can sway wildly in the closing days since everybody is seeing and prioritizing the same thing.

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Not worried...just a bit annoyed at the 538 2016 presidential forecast [View all] Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 OP

I think it is a composite of polls and the outlier polls that came out today showing Trump ahead Txbluedog Oct 2016 #1

No reason to be concern beachbumbob Oct 2016 #2

I'm not particularly concerned Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #7

Thanks - but haven't there been outlier polls all along? Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #3

The actual bookies have it at 82-16. trof Oct 2016 #20

Yawn leftynyc Oct 2016 #4

... alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #5

You really like to insult low post posters. Yet have no proof they are trolls. Just whining. n/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #28

^^^^^^Fan Club^^^^^ alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #29

You seriously have issues. n/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #31

OK there, Fan Club alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #32

I only follow you when you insult newer posters for simple questions. Clockwork. What a great.... ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #34

ROFL alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #36

I agree you are. Insulting every new poster. Try to stop it. n/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #39

I'll post how I please, Fan Club alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #42

"creepy, stalky behavior of some posters" describes you attacking low post members. Perfect! n/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #43

Just don't send me anymore PMs alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #44

I get that once in awhile and it pisses me off. I'm voting Clinton but I'm not a Democrat. NoGoodNamesLeft Oct 2016 #37

alcibiades_mystery does it to every low post poster who ever posts something he does not like. n/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #38

A suggestion PJMcK Oct 2016 #53

Thank you for the advice. I appreciate it! N/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #54

Gee, from 99% to 98% book_worm Oct 2016 #6

it goes up... it goes down..... just depends on which polls are in the chute.. getagrip_already Oct 2016 #8

I already sent in my ballot! Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #11

Really Polly Hennessey Oct 2016 #52

The tide goes in, the tide goes out.You can't explain how that happens. nt tblue37 Oct 2016 #45

Remember that the 538 model is mostly based on state polling. VMA131Marine Oct 2016 #9

Its just the noise from the day to day sampling - don't sweat it. Joe941 Oct 2016 #10

Specifically jamese777 Oct 2016 #12

Technically, a lot of the uncertainty is because of undecideds whatthehey Oct 2016 #13

Another poll of Ohio showing Trump winning doesn't help, although... Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2016 #14

Yes, Pennsylvania is the key state Awsi Dooger Oct 2016 #17

One day closer Awsi Dooger Oct 2016 #15

So for any stat experts out there on DU Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #16

RCP averages show a bump up for HRC (both 2-way and 4-way) Roland99 Oct 2016 #18

these are very small shifts.... Adrahil Oct 2016 #19

Changed semby2 Oct 2016 #22

I just read it now Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #25

Relax semby2 Oct 2016 #27

I am, too, and worry when I see the slightest downturn. manicraven Oct 2016 #40

It's likely because of the reports about the cost of Obamacare going up NoGoodNamesLeft Oct 2016 #23

HA HA HA! semby2 Oct 2016 #24

I saw that...it's just kind of weird that there's a bit more volatility today Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #26

I'm a registered Independent swing voter in a battleground state, this matters to people like me NoGoodNamesLeft Oct 2016 #30

She's demonstrated so far that she knows exactly what she's doing emulatorloo Oct 2016 #35

I was just watching CNN interview people from North Carolina about Obamacare... NoGoodNamesLeft Oct 2016 #48

When I go on a diet, I don't weigh myself every day emulatorloo Oct 2016 #33

I check that site way too much. It was killing me when it was close NightWatcher Oct 2016 #41

don't get caught up in analyzing line noise 0rganism Oct 2016 #46

22 blue states & DC give HRC 273 Electors jamese777 Oct 2016 #47

The lower Hillary is in the polls, the more people will get out there and vote for applegrove Oct 2016 #49

The race is far from tight...but the narrative it is close works for democrats beachbumbob Oct 2016 #50

You say it so much more eloquently than me. applegrove Oct 2016 #56

I know things look good bmstee01 Oct 2016 #51

Me too! Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #55