Warmed up Turkey, Clinton Must be + 6-7 Points Nationally

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19. These latest polls of likely voters that show "tightening" also have one crucial detail missing.

They poll only likely voters THAT HAVE NOT YET VOTED.

So, the nearly 30 million that have already voted, they aren't counted in these polls.

Thus, with Hillary way ahead in the early vote, the remaining voters are closer and more evenly split.

This is par for the course. Obama had a huge lead in 2008 and 2012 with the early vote. Actual election day results were evenly split, or even had the Republican with a slight advantage.

However, by winning the early vote by such a huge margin, that carried the election in each case, because Obama had a 10 point lead in the early vote in 2008, and a 7 point lead in 2012.

Obama ended up winning 2008 by about 7 points, and 2012 by about 5 points. So, his Republican challengers either matched him on Election Day or even beat him slightly.

It was the EARLY VOTING that made the difference.

These latest polls don't take into account the early voters, because to them there is no point in polling a person who already voted.