The Fundamental Problem with Nate Silver's Model

[GopherGal]

16. Doesn't explicitly include early vote

But his model prefers poll results for "likely voters". I don't know how that works within the polls themselves, but I would think that if there's an "already voted" category that boosts respondents' scores in "likely voter" weighting, the polls themselves (rather than the aggregation model) might be indirectly accounting for the early vote.