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2016 Postmortem

TomCADem

(17,387 posts)

4. Two More: Josh Putnam and Desart

Reply to Cha (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 01:19 PM

Nov 2016

Given the wide disparity among the various quants, it will be interesting who among them is closest to the final electoral vote count. Nate Silver has been very cautious about Hillary Clinton's chances, which may be an over correction to his insistence during the summer that there was no way Trump would win the RNC primary.

Josh Putnam (Frontloading HQ) - http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
Hillary Clinton: 340
Donald Trump: 198

Desart (Utah Valley) - http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/november.html
Hillary Clinton: 347
Donald Trump: 191

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Highlight:

Nerd War - Nate Silver v. Sam Wang v. Drew Linzer - Electoral Vote Projection (11/6/16) [View all] TomCADem Nov 2016 OP

Hadn't heard of Drew Linzer.. I already like Sam! Cha Nov 2016 #1

Two More: Josh Putnam and Desart TomCADem Nov 2016 #4

Thank you! Cha Nov 2016 #11

Also, Natalie Jackson from Huffington Post TomCADem Nov 2016 #5

HuffPo - Showing A Last Minute Tightening of the Face and Greater Uncertainty TomCADem Nov 2016 #8

Mahalo, Tom! Cha Nov 2016 #12

LA Times - "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes." TomCADem Nov 2016 #15

I HOPE they are Correct! Cha Nov 2016 #16

Benchmark Politics jaceaf Nov 2016 #6

378 Rex Nov 2016 #7

I reached up some time ago and pulled a card Hortensis Nov 2016 #10

Comey's November Surprise probably helped Wang and Linzer andym Nov 2016 #9

Wednesday will be full of "Why our models failed to predict this landslide" ThoughtCriminal Nov 2016 #13

Politico - Nate Silver rages at Huffington Post editor in 14-part tweetstorm TomCADem Nov 2016 #14

4. I predict an under count of the massive/historic Hispanic turnout workinclasszero Nov 2016 #19

Y'know...this is the kind of argument I like! Maeve Nov 2016 #17

Nate may need to tweek his model re: weights, but he is helping drive dems to the polls bushisanidiot Nov 2016 #18

interesting, thanks for posting. KittyWampus Nov 2016 #20

All three are low Egnever Nov 2016 #22

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN - November 7th Update TomCADem Nov 2016 #23

Going 321 instead of 322 because of the elector in Washington State who said she would not vote for Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #26