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2016 Postmortem

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Bucky

(53,521 posts)
Wed Nov 16, 2016, 01:12 PM Nov 2016

Bernie Sanders would have beaten Trump. Period. [View all]

Another poster here in DU is arguing Sanders would have lost.

Evidence: arguments that begin with "it woulda been like" and outright assertions that "socialism is still unpopular in America"
In other words... no evidence. Just speculation without fact.


I'm arguing Sanders would have won.
Empirical date: actual polls showing Sanders winning decisively against Trump.

Sanders beat Trump by 10 points among independencts and would have taken the overall electorate 56-44 in a two way race.

Some people will argue that polls were inaccurate this year. But that's only true of state-by-state polls. Overall polling showed Clinton just slightly ahead of Trump in popular support--when you aggregate all the major national polls--and that is in fact what happened. She'll win the popular vote by about one million votes (better than Gore's margin of victory) or 8/10s of 1%. Trump did a little better, but not much better, than the aggregate of all major polls.

He "overcame" a 2-3% margin, but could not have beat a 12% point margin like Sanders had.


Am I making some assumptions too? Yes, to be honest, I am. But I make far far fewer than those made by people saying Bernie would have lost. The truth is we'll never know with absolute certainty. But any reasonable model will tell you Sanders at the minimum would have flipped those 2-3 razor-close rust belt states that gave Trump his fluke of a minority victory and deprived Clinton of her electoral plurality.

It's tough to write this, because the one thing we do NOT need at DU is a typical liberal circular firing squad. We need to spend our time and effort organizing and putting the word out on how to resist Trump's disastrous policy impulses and the corrupt mob of sycophants and opportunists that he's going to bring in to loot the country.

I won't sit back and let others spread bad info. I will speak up. But I will always be a voice saying we need to look forward and find the soft spots to kick their fascist asses.
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Sanders couldn't beat Clinton. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #1
Let's not mention the "rigged primary" that cost us a lot of votes because people walked away MelissaB Nov 2016 #3
Or the rigged general. lol. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #6
Looks like you're missing the point again. MelissaB Nov 2016 #7
No, I'm not. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #13
Polls, not predictions. DirkGently Nov 2016 #58
And the polls turned out to be SO accurate this election cycle, didn't they? Give me a fuckin' beaglelover Nov 2016 #60
Polls gave Hillary a tiny lead at best. DirkGently Nov 2016 #66
Hillary won the popular vote by enough to make the 4 point lead accurate. Zen Democrat Nov 2016 #155
I don't think Clinton was unelectable. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #61
She literally had the highest disapproval DirkGently Nov 2016 #68
Lets see. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #73
It is a fact she was unelectable. DirkGently Nov 2016 #76
"It is a fact she was unelectable." NCTraveler Nov 2016 #79
McCain would have beaten her. Romney too. DirkGently Nov 2016 #81
You are just all over the place. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #86
You imagine you disproved Clinton was unelectable? DirkGently Nov 2016 #91
No, by your own metric Trump could never have won. Other than that you have personal bettyellen Nov 2016 #102
Disapproval was one index of Clinton's unelectability. DirkGently Nov 2016 #113
If we're going to re-run candidates who lost the General Election, BlueProgressive Nov 2016 #167
Absolutely! DirkGently Nov 2016 #170
How about this...I blame Bernie for her loss. Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #234
She lost only the Electoral College. She did win the popular vote. duffyduff Nov 2016 #175
If Clinton was unelectable then Sanders was more unelectable. Period. George II Nov 2016 #158
Except all the polls had him smashing Trump, of course. DirkGently Nov 2016 #168
The same pollsters had Clinton "smashing" Trump. George II Nov 2016 #173
No one ever had Clinton beating Trump like Sanders. DirkGently Nov 2016 #177
We don't elect Presidents with national votes. At one point (just before Comey interfered)..... George II Nov 2016 #184
Clinton got crushed in the EC. DirkGently Nov 2016 #190
When it's all said and done, she will have lost by about 40-50 votes. That's not being "crushed". George II Nov 2016 #203
She simply was a bad choice. DirkGently Nov 2016 #209
Don't know, perhaps you should ask the Sanders supporters? George II Nov 2016 #213
Says the poster arguing ham sandwiches are anti-Semitic? DirkGently Nov 2016 #216
I never argued the simply "ham sandwiches" are anti-Semitic. Context is everything! George II Nov 2016 #229
And we know polls are so accurate BainsBane Nov 2016 #224
"Disapproval" wasn't on the ballot. If it was she would have won by a landslide. George II Nov 2016 #199
Something sure kept people from voting for her. DirkGently Nov 2016 #202
Better than a million people voted for her over Trump. George II Nov 2016 #204
Not enough in the states Sanders won. DirkGently Nov 2016 #215
Nor can you win the nomination "appealing to just the people predisposed to support you". George II Nov 2016 #230
No she did not. WhiteTara Nov 2016 #201
She did set a personal 30-year worst DirkGently Nov 2016 #206
Especially to sexist misogynist men. WhiteTara Nov 2016 #208
Well the misogyinst's unfavorables were even higher. DirkGently Nov 2016 #210
Yes you are. Plucketeer Nov 2016 #112
If Sanders couldn't win the primaries which were to his advantage LiberalFighter Nov 2016 #69
Yeah... FrenchieCat Nov 2016 #149
Bernie had less votes Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #151
Good point! We'll see in 4 years whether Bernie can beat Donald Chump... InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2016 #226
You are suggesting we should run and 80 year old socialist candidate against Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #235
So dirty...people voted and he lost...the horror. Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #233
This - OhZone Nov 2016 #5
Somehow, Bernie would have resonated with him. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #8
Bernie didn't have to resonate with that guy ThirdEye Nov 2016 #26
"sick of establishment politics. " NCTraveler Nov 2016 #30
Well I'll give you one thing ThirdEye Nov 2016 #36
You made the claim. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #38
I'm confused ThirdEye Nov 2016 #87
You say he was establishment, but his votes came from people fed up with the system Bucky Nov 2016 #178
I'm not sure how to respond to... NCTraveler Nov 2016 #194
Bernie IS establshiment. nt Dr Hobbitstein Nov 2016 #45
Being elected doesn't make you establishment ThirdEye Nov 2016 #72
Holding office for over 30 years does. Dr Hobbitstein Nov 2016 #80
When I think of "establishment", I think of Podesta's email. Wilms Nov 2016 #88
When I think establishment, I think of old white guys in Washington. Dr Hobbitstein Nov 2016 #93
yeah, and now American elected another one. Ligyron Nov 2016 #132
Don't forget Planned Parenthood!! Anyone working for the common good for years is SHITE!?!?! bettyellen Nov 2016 #106
"Shite". What a silly word. Wilms Nov 2016 #108
How's thirty years in govt and fixed nothing! Wants HUGE tax increases! bettyellen Nov 2016 #111
Believe me. I know you could go on. Wilms Nov 2016 #122
I've seen literally hundred of Cut and pastes on sanders- but taxes and bettyellen Nov 2016 #126
Then why are you trotting out falsehoods? Wilms Nov 2016 #128
The only regular paychecks Bernie ever got for a sustained period of time were government ones. MADem Nov 2016 #115
Why is corporate establishment "made up bullshit" hueymahl Nov 2016 #135
Exactly. They think that trump would have treated Sanders lunamagica Nov 2016 #9
Yep mcar Nov 2016 #29
it's not about how the Rs would have treated Sanders, it's that nashville_brook Nov 2016 #62
She got four million more votes than he did! lunamagica Nov 2016 #70
Some people don't have a clue what would had been thrown at Sanders. LiberalFighter Nov 2016 #71
Guess what, opposition research was of zero impact this election. Zen Democrat Nov 2016 #160
This was the year when labels were discarded for the message. LenaBaby61 Nov 2016 #165
Plus a fucking million. nt Maven Nov 2016 #205
Do I really have to point out the logical flaws in your argument? Bucky Nov 2016 #15
"Do I really have to point out the logical flaws in your argument?" NCTraveler Nov 2016 #27
Yep. An outsider with difficult aspirations was what voters wanted. DirkGently Nov 2016 #63
Imaginary? Like Trump's chances? ThirdEye Nov 2016 #31
Yup, and someone posted an article here with the reasons that Sanders was popular: R B Garr Nov 2016 #32
Not attacked? ThirdEye Nov 2016 #40
Welcome to DU R B Garr Nov 2016 #50
I respect your perspective ThirdEye Nov 2016 #136
More silly season nonsense. closeupready Nov 2016 #33
Agree. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #39
Not playing your games. closeupready Nov 2016 #78
Ok. No games, though. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #176
Ding! (That's correct.) NurseJackie Nov 2016 #83
Thank you. cwydro Nov 2016 #89
In a fair contest, perhaps he could have SoCalDem Nov 2016 #147
Lame excuse.Look Hillary Clinton had her wings clipped by the GOP Fascists INdemo Nov 2016 #171
Yep. It is pretty obvious. duffyduff Nov 2016 #174
yes! Cobalt Violet Nov 2016 #2
we had two very suboptimal candidates. Can you name the last time a Democrat over 60 won? geek tragedy Nov 2016 #10
coming in from outside the White House, they've all been 50 or younger Bucky Nov 2016 #186
Firstly - we won the popular vote - OhZone Nov 2016 #12
If you don't learn from history, you'll repeat it ThirdEye Nov 2016 #43
Maybe we need to make it a federal crime for an FBI director to "opine" on open investigations, MADem Nov 2016 #129
100% agree ThirdEye Nov 2016 #134
who received four million more votes than Sanders lunamagica Nov 2016 #14
Yup nt OhZone Nov 2016 #21
No one is saying he didn't lose ThirdEye Nov 2016 #46
The point is that if he couldn't even beat her, how could he beat trump lunamagica Nov 2016 #77
I agree. Ligyron Nov 2016 #140
We did not have a bad candidate mcar Nov 2016 #34
"Actual polls showing Sanders winning decisively against Trump" geek tragedy Nov 2016 #4
Actually most of the polls had her winning - OhZone Nov 2016 #16
or, there was a group of likely Trump voters that were much harder to poll than Clinton/Sanders geek tragedy Nov 2016 #17
Or maybe... ThirdEye Nov 2016 #48
I think there was definitely some of the former, for the latter point geek tragedy Nov 2016 #56
Fair point to make, I didn't compare to Gore until just now. ThirdEye Nov 2016 #67
it's always dangerous after 8 years of a Democratic president. geek tragedy Nov 2016 #75
I honestly believe it cannot be argued successfully either way. Pacifist Patriot Nov 2016 #11
In the spirit of opinion and lessons learned, Warren was our best choice BeyondGeography Nov 2016 #18
It's over... time to work on ending the disaster facing the country. Cattledog Nov 2016 #19
It is... ThirdEye Nov 2016 #49
The bad info is that Bernie would have won. nt WhiteTara Nov 2016 #20
Bernie would have been destroyed calguy Nov 2016 #22
But the racist conman billionaire won. DirkGently Nov 2016 #74
1 OrwellwasRight Nov 2016 #222
Dear Skinner, lillypaddle Nov 2016 #23
Second that. greatauntoftriplets Nov 2016 #24
rec 1000 times mcar Nov 2016 #35
Yeah... ThirdEye Nov 2016 #52
God yes. Starry Messenger Nov 2016 #105
No kidding. At a minimum polls found 10% of the Sanders supporters would not vote for Hillary still_one Nov 2016 #109
I'm trying to stick to facts and analysis. This isn't a hate thing. Bucky Nov 2016 #197
Facts, yeah right. Feingold lost, republican incumbents won. She also won the popular vote still_one Nov 2016 #211
I just don't think you'll get far by castigating voters we failed to win over Bucky Nov 2016 #214
Yeah, I'd love to be told to get in line or sit down and shut up one more time. MelissaB Nov 2016 #163
This discussion board is called "2016 Postmortem". I'm sad if my arguments annoy you. Bucky Nov 2016 #188
Yes, excellent suggestion! SunSeeker Nov 2016 #192
hypothetical, questionable at best 0rganism Nov 2016 #25
Wrong. Period. mcar Nov 2016 #28
http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044 frazzled Nov 2016 #37
This article is spot on. LisaM Nov 2016 #57
1000. sheshe2 Nov 2016 #124
Wrong. Period. Dr Hobbitstein Nov 2016 #41
Easy to say at this point, but he couldn't win even with only Dems voting. Coyotl Nov 2016 #42
Exactly.... FarPoint Nov 2016 #44
It's true ThirdEye Nov 2016 #55
Maybe, maybe not. It's only speculation and wishful thinking now. n/t cynatnite Nov 2016 #47
No way. Bobbie Jo Nov 2016 #51
Yes he would have because millennials that wanted change voted for Trump INdemo Nov 2016 #53
That's right. Ligyron Nov 2016 #146
Nope. Not a chance. (nt) Paladin Nov 2016 #54
Dream on. He couldn't even beat Hillary in the primaries (oh, I know, they were beaglelover Nov 2016 #59
two words: Marxist Baggage Fast Walker 52 Nov 2016 #64
I don't disagree. nt Guy Whitey Corngood Nov 2016 #65
On Fantasy Island ... but not in real life. NurseJackie Nov 2016 #82
He would have lost. If the polls were wrong about Hillary, then they were wrong about him. grossproffit Nov 2016 #84
NO, his tax increases would have wiped Bernie OUT Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #85
You've not considered health care expense, nor college... Wilms Nov 2016 #103
if you think universal healthcare (single payer, expanded medicare for all, etc) Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #133
Now hang on a second. Wilms Nov 2016 #148
I didnt mean to suggest you held those beliefs, I apologise Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #157
We're good. Wilms Nov 2016 #162
Game over is right. bettyellen Nov 2016 #107
Amen! Sanders had the energy and excitement behind him ErikJ Nov 2016 #90
bullshit. Clinton supporters would have supported Sanders if he was the nominee. The still_one Nov 2016 #92
When someone says .Period. that means they really really mean it. Period. NBachers Nov 2016 #94
The broad strategy is what we lost... sfwriter Nov 2016 #95
That is my thinking also.. n/t secondwind Nov 2016 #96
Bernie was on the rise when his wings got plucked. He would have kept rural WI, MICH, PA blue. zonkers Nov 2016 #97
He couldn't win a primary. Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #154
Nope, he never faced actual opposition so this is fan fiction. bettyellen Nov 2016 #98
We "Democrats" chose our nominee, and we "Democrats" will deal with the outcome. Get over it. Tarheel_Dem Nov 2016 #99
He would have gotten creamed. Tragically, because I supported Now support him, but he would not mahina Nov 2016 #100
Sorry--that's utter nonsense. He couldn't beat Clinton, how could he beat Trump? MADem Nov 2016 #101
Spot on. Beautifully explained lunamagica Nov 2016 #118
Thank you, and those are the parts that are true! R B Garr Nov 2016 #121
There's MUCH more dirt on Sanders, but it serves no real purpose to drag it up. MADem Nov 2016 #131
So, what we had no decent candidate to run? Ligyron Nov 2016 #152
The kibbutz shit ALONE? Omaha Steve Nov 2016 #183
I respectfully disagree SHRED Nov 2016 #104
Nope- taxes, abortion, 30 years and accomplished nothing. bettyellen Nov 2016 #110
I 100% agree Lunabell Nov 2016 #114
Not a chance wysi Nov 2016 #116
Sanders might have won but he also could have lost. hrmjustin Nov 2016 #117
In order for Sanders to run as the DNC nominee, he did not win in the primaries, he would Thinkingabout Nov 2016 #119
But if more candidates had entered and run in the D primary things may have turned out Ligyron Nov 2016 #164
It could also be said if more would have entered there would be less votes for Sanders, Thinkingabout Nov 2016 #182
I doubt it, but, we don't need this now. wisteria Nov 2016 #120
Hello, the primary is over or didn't you get the memo? leftofcool Nov 2016 #123
This is a lesson for the FUTURE. ErikJ Nov 2016 #139
Hello, the election is over too! Time to talk about what went wrong! B Calm Nov 2016 #142
Not if it means ripping the DU community apart. kstewart33 Nov 2016 #239
He would have lost the popular vote AND the EC. DawgHouse Nov 2016 #125
No he wouldn't Period OKNancy Nov 2016 #127
Bullshit. Period. ismnotwasm Nov 2016 #130
I love Bernie too, but if he really is Superman, he would have beaten Hillary in the primaries. world wide wally Nov 2016 #137
One thing for certain, Hillary couldn't beat him! B Calm Nov 2016 #138
I agree. This wasn't the year for a Wall Street Democrat. jalan48 Nov 2016 #141
you mean like his protege Teachout won in ny? La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #143
I do not know if you are correct or not Lulu KC Nov 2016 #144
Its obvious. Massive electric rallies. Signs everywhere. ErikJ Nov 2016 #145
Not according to Theda Skocpol (Harvardd sociologist/political scientist) deurbano Nov 2016 #150
Neoliberalism is not "pragmatic." DirkGently Nov 2016 #153
I second your motion............. turbinetree Nov 2016 #159
Clinton's baggage was both real and manufactured. DirkGently Nov 2016 #161
Again, I second your motion turbinetree Nov 2016 #231
This was the year of Anti-Establishment & angry people Equinox Moon Nov 2016 #156
Gee, Feingold didn't win, nor did those Swing state Senate Democrats against the still_one Nov 2016 #200
I appreciate your comments Equinox Moon Nov 2016 #219
we gonna rehash this shit here on DU for next four years? Cryptoad Nov 2016 #166
If need be. Hopefully the party will drop the neoliberalist part and B Calm Nov 2016 #169
For at least the next four weeks, anyway. BlueProgressive Nov 2016 #179
What a delusional post. duffyduff Nov 2016 #172
Hillary supporters would have supported Sanders if he was the nominal. At least 10%, and by still_one Nov 2016 #180
'Michael Bloomberg would have won' ? BlueProgressive Nov 2016 #181
He would not have treestar Nov 2016 #185
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. SunSeeker Nov 2016 #187
"Would have" and "might have" are not synonymous. guillaumeb Nov 2016 #189
No, but Biden would have. He is authentic and Pisces Nov 2016 #191
Biden would've been amazing, agreed. I disagree that Sanders couldn't have won black voters over Bucky Nov 2016 #195
Polls also showed Hillary would win. gollygee Nov 2016 #193
Damn and all he had to do was win a fucking primary MyNameGoesHere Nov 2016 #196
... SidDithers Nov 2016 #198
Is that a serious post? greatauntoftriplets Nov 2016 #207
This is so delusional I don't know where to begin. Maven Nov 2016 #212
I firmly believe he would have won. TDale313 Nov 2016 #217
If sanders hadn't run and bad mouthed Hillary...she'd be our president today. Auntie Bush Nov 2016 #218
That too lunasun Nov 2016 #228
I agree with you Bucky JonLP24 Nov 2016 #220
Eichenwald dispelled that crap BainsBane Nov 2016 #221
I believe that too be true. SammyWinstonJack Nov 2016 #223
LOCK HER UP, LOCK HER UP, LOCK HER UP, LOCK HER UP! otohara Nov 2016 #225
I blame Sander's behavior during the primary for our loss...I don't say Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #236
I can't help but think he did it on purpose. JTFrog Nov 2016 #237
He's Gloating - Mission Accomplished otohara Nov 2016 #241
FORGET the polls they were "engineered to be wrong" Historic NY Nov 2016 #227
He couldn't even win a primary. Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #232
Take A Look At Bernie's ColoradoCare - Failed 80/20 otohara Nov 2016 #238
I agree with you. This was an "outsider" year. BUT - Vinca Nov 2016 #240
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