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2016 Postmortem

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Tom Rinaldo

(22,911 posts)
Fri Nov 18, 2016, 01:21 PM Nov 2016

Yes. There were numerous factors that swung the race narrowly to Trump. [View all]

None of them are trivial. Republicans practiced wide spread voter suppression efforts against minority voters in particular this year. Trump got hundreds of millions in free publicity early in the race before the media quite belatedly began to actually cover him beyond the buzz they generated for him - and then for the most part only the print media got real. The overt actions of the FBI Director had him jumping into the scale for Trump rather than just putting a finger on it. Russia intervened in the election on Trump's behalf, hacking and facilitating the release of tens of thousands of emails meant to discredit Clinton. Facebook allowed fake news stories in favor of Trump to proliferate, virtually unchallenged. Third Party candidates muddied the field and got significant numbers of votes. Some Americans simply were not ready to accept a woman as President, no matter how qualified. The electoral college is undemocratic, and Hillary probably got million of more votes than Trump without winning. Others can add to this list no doubt.

All true, but Democrats still should have easily won this election for President. Ongoing demographic shifts have favored Democrats increasingly each Presidential election. The unemployment level dipped below 5% before this election. The Republicans could not have nominated a less qualified and more universally disliked and distrusted candidate for President than Donald Trump. Hillary had a well oiled highly professional campaign team, Trump ran through three different campaign managers. The official Democratic Party was unified behind Clinton; Trump couldn't even get endorsements from previous Republican Presidents or most prior Republican Presidential candidates - nor several of the candidates who ran against him for the nomination, including the Governor of Ohio where their convention was held. Trump had no high profile surrogates who significantly campaigned for him aside from his Vice President and his daughter. Hillary had her daughter and VP too. She also had Bill Clinton, and Joe Biden, and Al Gore, and Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. And she had a very popular two term Democratic President and his even more popular wife pulling out all of the stops for her. Trump had Ted Nuggent, Clinton had Bruce Springsteen, and Beyonce etc. etc. etc.

After Romney's 2012 loss to Obama the RNC determined that Republicans needed better outreach to Latinos in order to win national elections. Instead Trump did everything in his power to push them away. Despite all of his boasting about his personal riches Hillary raised and outspent Trump by hundreds of millions during this presidential campaign. Although there were small numbers of Democrats vocal in opposition to Hillary, there were many more Republicans vocal in opposition to Trump. The Democrats had a fully functional GOTV machine, the Republicans did not. Trump was caught on tape boasting about sexual assaults. Women who were molested by him came forward. Teen beauty queens related how Trump barged in on them while naked during Trump promoted pageants. There is a trial date pending for the victims of the Trump University scam. Trump refused to release any of his tax returns. Trump admitted that he doesn't pay Federal Income taxes. Trump said he admires Putin, who most Americans knee jerk hate. The Ku Klux Klan endorsed Trump. The list of reasons why virtually any Democrat should have beaten Donald Trump is simply too long to list.

I don't say any of this to bash Hillary. After she secured the Democratic nomination I wanted her to win the election, and I worked toward that end. None of this denies her ample qualifications to have become President, nor the fact that millions of voters sincerely love Hillary, nor the obvious good that America finally electing a female President could have brought this country, and the world. But Clinton didn't win an election that never should have been close enough to slip away from her. To pretend otherwise is denial.

Yes Virginia, this was a “change election” and Hillary Clinton was never a change candidate. She was the establishment candidate all the way. Back when pundits were assuming that another Clinton Bush match-up was virtually inevitable, someone should have gotten a clue when Jeb totally bombed in the primaries. Americans were restless. Hilary's campaign doubled down on assumptions that did not bear out, and that unfortunately means flirting with the political death penalty. About 57 percent of eligible voters cast ballots this year, down from 58.6 percent in 2012 and 61.6 percent in 2008. The “Obama coalition” did not come through as strongly as hoped for, even with record levels of Hispanic participation. Yes, it turns out that it was significant that the maverick campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders were bringing out crowds of tens of thousands during the primaries while Hilary was struggling to crack three digits at hers. Hillary always had the Democratic Party machine wired for her, and I'm not even referring to anything unethical in saying so. She spent decades in the trenches; she knew people, lots of people, and many of them personally admired her and/or owed her favors. She essentially cleared the field well before the primaries ever began (it's always been my belief that O'Malley was always running to become VP). When a 73 year old little known Democratic Socialist Senator from Vermont, who the media kept on ignore well past any semblance of objective coverage, gave her such a strong run for the money – that should have been wake up call enough. Instead, after Hillary won the nomination her campaign systematically neglected the rust belt, which ultimately resulted in her defeat.

If Democrats now ignore the above realities we will remain out of touch with a dangerously large swath of the electorate. The Democratic Party brand has suffered with working and middle class Americans in recent decades. Look below the level of presidential elections and that could not be more obvious. Democrats have repeatedly been routed in more and more state legislatures. The Clinton era is now officially over. Yes many things had to go wrong for us in order for Trump to become President. Had a few of them broken differently we would narrowly have dodged that bullet, but it was heading toward us none the less.

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So to summarize liquid diamond Nov 2016 #1
Well, the poster did make legitimate points... Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #5
I agree with your conclusion Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #8
More trashing Clinton. Let me guess you supported Sanders. duffyduff Nov 2016 #62
And, I actively campaigned for Hillary. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #64
I didn't say that, you did Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #6
Primaries are not General elections TDale313 Nov 2016 #22
Not necessarily. THere are other interpretations. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #23
Where's the "Sander critique of corporate control" and shouts of "corruption" now? bettyellen Nov 2016 #33
Sanders has been denouncing Trump all fall, and continued since the election. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #42
Have t heard him shout corruption about Trump once - quote please? bettyellen Nov 2016 #44
I've never been a Hillary hater. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #46
So.... he hasn't said anything lately about the huge conflicts of interest Trump has? bettyellen Nov 2016 #52
Bernie has attacked and will keep attacking Trump. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #55
I've googled and am coming up with him "hiding taxes" an old and ironic attack.... bettyellen Nov 2016 #56
Exactly, bettyellen! I don't see Bernie or his supporters now outraged that an actual 1% R B Garr Nov 2016 #43
It's insane. I guess if Sanders is not complaining they can't either? It would appear so. bettyellen Nov 2016 #54
Bernie has attacked Trump's actual proposals. Why is it so important that he says "corruption"? Ken Burch Nov 2016 #67
models of this election that were created to predict this election before polls La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #2
Agreed were it it not for how deeply flawed a candidate Trump was Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #4
white supremacy is a powerful drug, and we undervalued its power La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #7
To an extent, yes. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #9
people have different motivations at different times. La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #11
True. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #13
and the fact that you think white voters who voted for obama cannot vote for white supremacy La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #15
I cannot imagine that a white supremacist Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #16
people actually are selectively racist. they can be primed to enhance their racism La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #17
People are absolutely selectively racist and sexist. It'd be better if you studied a bit on the bettyellen Nov 2016 #34
I actually have studied the subject quite a bit. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #40
people are selectively racist, Nazis in Germany had Jewish Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #58
yup, that's why we laugh at the "my best friend is black" line. not because we don't think they JI7 Nov 2016 #74
That's the disconnect atreides1 Nov 2016 #27
My feelings exactly. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #29
he did say how he was going to help them. by building a wall and deporting people and muslim bans JI7 Nov 2016 #84
No, he did not. He lost women by 10 percentage points spooky3 Nov 2016 #18
I stand corrected. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #19
Thank you! Good point. And here's an article you might like: spooky3 Nov 2016 #20
She did proudly believe those things, much to her credit Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #10
obama never ran against an open white supremacist La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #12
True, he didn't. It can be argued either way... Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #25
Bingo. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #30
Well, she DID have a message that gave people something to vote for radical noodle Nov 2016 #79
This message was self-deleted by its author Ken Burch Nov 2016 #48
Could you stop pretending everything I say had La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #69
OK...if that's not what you meant, that's fine. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #70
Again, nothing I said was about Bernie. La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #71
Also just for clarity you are the only person La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #73
I didn't say YOU personally started those things last spring. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #75
you made an accusation in a post that did not at all refer to primaries or bernie. La Lioness Priyanka Nov 2016 #85
I deleted the post. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #86
you should make an OP with that Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #57
Well put. Else You Are Mad Nov 2016 #3
The biggest thing MFM008 Nov 2016 #14
That is the major variable that swung enough votes at the end Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #24
Consider how this election would go if Obama had run against Trump andym Nov 2016 #21
Approvals matter n/t moonscape Nov 2016 #82
'Yes Virginia, this was a change election elleng Nov 2016 #26
It's hard for any party to hold the presidency for more than two terms. ... spin Nov 2016 #31
The only worthwhile reason to give much thought to why she lost... Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #32
Lessons can be learned from a defeat. In this case ... spin Nov 2016 #38
Thank you. Learning is not bashing or hatred. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #49
There are a couple of myths here Lithos Nov 2016 #28
And it's not even about saying it should have been Bernie instead of Hillary. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #51
Agree with you on many points Lithos Nov 2016 #65
I agree with all of that. Thanks for the openness. n/t. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #66
Tom, How do you think Obama would have fared against Trump? andym Nov 2016 #35
His approval ratings are a huge clue Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #36
I think Obama could have taken a more substantive-type Rubio moonscape Nov 2016 #83
And the loss of the House and the Senate? ismnotwasm Nov 2016 #37
We gained seats in the House and Senate - but fewer than hoped for Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #39
So you think people voted locally because of national Elections coverage? ismnotwasm Nov 2016 #41
Parcing words is important, but difficult Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #45
See, I think people agree on the "various causes" part. ismnotwasm Nov 2016 #47
OK, I will. Don't have time right this second but I will. n/t Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #60
it was mostly white people angry over increasing diversity JI7 Nov 2016 #50
One mention of voter suppression and no mention of Comey?! :rolleyes: Stop, ok... jus stop uponit7771 Nov 2016 #53
Umm: "The overt actions of the FBI Director had him jumping into the scale for Trump Tom Rinaldo Nov 2016 #59
ok... I'll cede you mentioned Comey in context but not those two playin more of a factor then the uponit7771 Nov 2016 #63
Why is it so important to force everyone to see it as Comey and voter suppression and nothing ELSE? Ken Burch Nov 2016 #87
Because those were the two biggest TANGIBLE factors that can be measured, everything else is basical uponit7771 Nov 2016 #88
You have NO clue what happened. There was only ONE factor at work: the media duffyduff Nov 2016 #61
The other factor not mentioned was that a significant number of Sanders supporters refused to vote still_one Nov 2016 #81
The Dems got caught up in the "change" contagion. gulliver Nov 2016 #68
A cogent and perceptive analysis... Hugin Nov 2016 #72
You've put a LOT of thought into how Trump won, but I think it came down to math and Crosscheck. ancianita Nov 2016 #76
K & R Because some postmortem analysis really needs to get beyond culture wars. ancianita Nov 2016 #77
Here you go: Botany first called how Republicans won by the numbers -- ahead of time. ancianita Nov 2016 #78
The one thing you did leave out though was that a significant number of Sanders supporters did NOT still_one Nov 2016 #80
Yes, any Democrat should have beaten Trump. As capable as Hillary is, she was a flawed candidate mtnsnake Nov 2016 #89
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