2016 Postmortem

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)

4. None of the right-wingers will retire

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:55 PM

Dec 2012

except for health reasons.

So basically, the question is an actuarial one. What are the chances that one of these will die (listed in decreasing order of evilness)?

Scalia
Thomas
Alito
Roberts
Kennedy

Actuarially, my guess is that there is better than a 50/50 chance all of them would live another 4 years. Are there any actuaries out there who could put some real numbers to this?

The Court is a funny thing. Kind of an organism. Scalia, Thomas, and Alito are highly partisan ideologues. Kennedy and Roberts are a little more thoughtful. If one of those three ideologues leaves the court, we could see a real change in the dynamics of the SCOTUS.

I will be happy to send a truckload of cigars to those three if it might help nature move things along.

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16 replies

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Supreme Court during Obama's 2nd term [View all] Mojo2 Dec 2012 OP

without filibuster reform, who he nominates is probably irrelevant nt msongs Dec 2012 #1

I think we may get very lucky and Scalia will retire along with Kennedy graham4anything Dec 2012 #2

Whatcha' somin' there graham? HERVEPA Dec 2012 #3

None of the right-wingers will retire BlueStreak Dec 2012 #4

I think all the Conservative justices will wait until the next election sellitman Dec 2012 #5

If their health allows BlueStreak Dec 2012 #8

Thomas will be OK bongbong Dec 2012 #11

At that rate he will be on the court another 30 years. madinmaryland Dec 2012 #15

Uncle Clarence will be taken by cardiomyopathy. Loudly Dec 2012 #6

I'm not a doctor, but I think that requires the patient to have a heart. BlueStreak Dec 2012 #9

I think Ginsberg is the only one likely to retire dballance Dec 2012 #7

If I were placing bets, that would be my bet. BlueStreak Dec 2012 #10

But that would OK. Imo we shouldn't downplay the importance of NYC Liberal Dec 2012 #13

my bet is ginsburg retiring and health problems for thomas. Just a gut feeling. Filibuster Harry Dec 2012 #12

Can justices be impeached? jimmy the one Dec 2012 #14

Ginsburg will retire ... so will Kennedy and maybe Breyer... Drunken Irishman Dec 2012 #16