2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Only Eight Years of President Hillary Can Take the Supreme Court Away From Conservatives [View all]Cosmocat
(14,561 posts)the justices are living and serving longer and longer ...
They get top of the line health care and live a pretty easy and comfortable life and have a position of extraordinary importance that engenders the will to keep going, something that plays a BIG role in life expectancy.
There is a shot with Scalia, he does appear to be someone that might be reaching the point to have health issues or some major condition.
But, Kennedy has all the looks of someone who is going to go into his 90s pretty easily.
And, that is just to get ONE pick, not have some kind of big 6-3 swin.
And, again, Scalia could be on his death bed and won't retire/resign if there is a democratic president.
Something could come up where his doctors bed him to retire and step away and he won't do it if there is a D President.
He literally is going to have to die.
I would not put it at 50/50 and I would be amazed if it swung hard the other way.
More like a 25% chance just to have a SOFT 5 "liberal" justices.