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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #37)

Wed Jul 2, 2014, 02:32 PM

39. I'll somewhat buy the argument that they get better healthcare than us plebs, but the math says

 

otherwise. And you can't really say if Kennedy or Scalia based on looks that they will live into their 90s or not. The only other thing I'll buy is that neither are smokers (that I'm aware of) which helps a lot too. My grandfather was a thin in shape man who dropped dead of a heart attack at 81. Granted he had a previous one at 61 or so. On the other hand my overweight borderline obese grandfather lived until he was 99. These were relatively recent deaths, 2001 and 2008. So modern medicine was involved to boot.

According to actuarial life tables

33.6% chance Scalia dies in the next 6 years
33.6% chance Kennedy dies in the next 6 years.

11.3% chance they both die in the next 6 years.

44% chance neither die in the next 6 years.

So we're already at better than 50/50 on death alone from actuarial life tables. And that does not take into account disability or one of the other... or the unexpected death, disability, or retirement of one of the younger judges. I did Clarence Thomas for fun as well and got a 13% chance he's out in the next 6 years.

I think a 25% chance of having a soft 5 liberal justices is way too pessimistic. The math says otherwise. Though a 6-3 in our favor is unlikely I will admit but that's why I qualified it with an OR. If we get a dem for 2016 and 2020 statistically speaking we've got it in the bag.


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DonViejo Jul 2014 OP
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Cosmocat Jul 2014 #35
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Cosmocat Jul 2014 #37
LineLineLineLineLineReply I'll somewhat buy the argument that they get better healthcare than us plebs, but the math says
MillennialDem Jul 2014 #39
Cosmocat Jul 2014 #40
MillennialDem Jul 2014 #41
yeoman6987 Jul 2014 #53
MillennialDem Jul 2014 #55
VanillaRhapsody Jul 2014 #27
davidpdx Jul 2014 #29
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