TPM Polltracker: Obama: 281 Romney: 191 Tossup: 66

[Rosanna Lopez]

17. 80%

I think Nate Silver gives Michigan an 80% chance of going for Obama, so it would certainly seem that way based on its electoral history and the current campaign dynamics.

If Obama is leading in a state like Virginia, a state like Michigan which hasn't voted Republican since 1988 should be in the Democratic column. Presumably the Obama campaign isn't that concerned or they would be spending more time there. They must feel the recent close polls in Michigan don't correspond with reality.

But it's weird seeing a map in which Obama does better in Virginia than he does in Michigan .

What's also interesting is that Romney appears to be doing worse in Tennessee than he is in Arizona, which is kind of odd considering that TN was a bad state for Obama in 2008.

So either something different is happening or else the polls this year are very out of whack.