2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Umm... Report: Bernie wants $18 Trillion in new spending. [View all]jeff47
(26,549 posts)might not be a good plan.
To be blunt, Clinton has no chance in my swing state. At best, Democrats think of her as "meh". She simply can't tap in to the same forces that created "Moral Mondays".
Meanwhile, we're going to need lots of mops to clean up after all the orgasms Republicans have in the voting booth when they vote against Clinton. They really, really, really, really, really, really hate her.
The way you win statewide races in NC as a Democrat is winning turnout. 2008 Obama won it because high urban turnout handily beat rural turnout. 2012 Obama lost it because urban turnout was way down, while rural turnout was way up. Same thing happened to turn our Senate seats red - centrist, uninspiring candidates couldn't get enough Democratic turnout.
Clinton will not get high "blue" turnout, and will massively boost "red" turnout. She can't win the state. And she is unlikely to campaign here to try and change that.
Sanders or O'Malley have a chance. They only have the "standard Democrat" level of hatred from the Republicans, and they actually can tap into the "Moral Mondays" movement. That does not mean either one is a "lock". But they actually have a chance.
And if you compare 2008 to 2010, 2012 and 2014, "sensible centrists" are not doing well all over. Even when "crazy liberal" ballot initiatives win.
And that doesn't even get into 30 years of opposition research against Clinton by the Republicans. You're gonna ignore what Republican operatives say. You aren't everyone.
Because of all that, I think it's a big mistake to think Clinton is the best GE candidate. We don't need the person who does best in national polling, because crushing it in CA and NY won't win the election. We need to win rural-urban divide states, and centrists like Clinton have a very shitty record of doing that recently.