2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Iowa Democrats worry Bernie Sanders couldn't win a general election or tame Washington [View all]That is an absurd argument that is not rooted in anything resembling analysis.
Bernie has a history of getting republicans to vote for him as a governor. Granted, I don't know if this is going to translate effectively into the general election.
The fact of the matter is that Hillary's negatives are higher in the swing states, which will make it harder for her to win in the general than Bernie.
Aside from all that, the fact that you are using absolutes when you suggest that "If Bernie Sanders is the nominee we'll have a Republican president" Is absurd.
That suggests that a fair number of Democrats would have to willingly choose to vote republican just because Bernie is the nominee? Does that describe you? How many Democrats do you know that will immediately switch sides just because Hillary doesn't get the nomination. Sure, a lot of people talk tough about their candidate of choice but most Democrats I know will take a long hard look at their choices and eventually check the box with the big 'D.'
And what are you saying about the GOP fail-o-matic clown car? Are you saying that they will magically become less ridiculous, offensive, or utterly unelectable? I think you need to review your electoral math on that one because there are a hell of a lot more electoral votes in consistant blue states than there are in red.
I will say this right now. Whether it is Hillary or Bernie the Democrats will almost certainly win. Given that I would go with the more progressive candidate.
There is only one scenario where I see the Democrats not winning the White house. If the contest becomes Jeb vs Hillary the result will be a LOT of voter frustration. It will depress regular turn out from people who start seeing that their vote is less important and it would be like sending out a gold ingraved invitation to third party spoiler(s).