2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Bernie will not repeat Obama's Performance [View all]Samantha
(9,314 posts)1. Sanders hired the same team Obama utilized to run his campaign. In fact, people on that team were jumping up and down wanting to assist Sanders. That team did some amazing things for Obama and it looks to me like they are doing great for Sanders as well -- not to detract from Obama's direct appeal to the public, he deserves a lot of credit. But Sanders is doing a tremendous job himself at appealing to the public, including some Republicans.
2. Hilliary has been doing a lot of heavy-duty advertising for some time now. Naturally she should be ahead of Sanders who has done none, zero, nada. He starts in November. There are many, many people who will be introduced to him for the first time through his advertising campaign, and I believe this will make a remarkable difference. Stay tuned. And I would not count Iowa as a win yet. It is a caucus state, which is harder to predict and CBSYouGov has Sanders down only by 3, DMR/Bloomberg has Sanders down 7. Yes, two pollsters give Clinton huge leads (Monmouth and Loras College) but there is just too big a swing among the pollsters to predict much of anything, especially since Clinton has that heavy advertising advantage. And Sanders has a modest lead in New Hampshire, so I would not call that state just yet either.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
3. It also is too early to tell what will happen in the Southern States. Sanders is opening campaign offices in different states and has a lot of work yet to be done there.
4. Hillary is not much stronger this time than in 2008. She has pulled some huge mistakes, especially that well-known political maneuver of purloining her strongest opponent's planks. Historically, Hillary has always demonstrated she is a very intelligent, astute politician but this time is starting to look like just another Third Wayer who will do what it takes to win and should she do so, compromise on issues in ways true progressives will decry. Hillary was much stronger when she was the true, real Hillary than the candidate she is today.
5. So? All a candidate has to do while the primaries are going on is win a simple majority, and I believe Bernie is totally capable of doing this.
It is really getting tiresome to keep reading on this site so many supporters of Hillary's implying this contest is a done deal. This contest is just getting started.
Sam