2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Poll: Clinton leads Sanders by 9 points in Iowa [View all]Jarqui
(10,123 posts)Sanders is way behind in South Carolina: Clinton +47
Sanders is well behind in Nevada: Clinton +26.5
Sanders has limited financial resources compared to Clinton
Sanders is very close in New Hampshire (Gravis poll is probably an outlier as they're not a very reliable outfit)
Sanders is pulling closer in Iowa - within single digits the last two polls two+ months out.
Those four states lead off the primary voting and are the only states voting in February. Those four votes are all the media is going to have to talk about for a month - aside from incoming polls (which will start to trend towards Sanders if he wins two of these states).
If Bernie were to split the states by winning New Hampshire and Iowa, that would be enormous because then there would be this big discussion in the media for a month (free media coverage) about whether Bernie can do what Obama did. The result of that would help to further legitimize his candidacy, in part like it did for Obama, and help him zoom up the polls because folks would recognize that he is capable of beating Hillary. And when the media take the next obvious step to see how he matches up with GOP candidates, right now, he arguably matches up better. The publicity of that would be big because it is something that is currently helping Hillary right now. A bunch don't find her trustworthy but she's currently getting their support because they don't think Bernie can beat the GOP (but the polls suggest otherwise - that he's as capable or better against the GOP because so many independents and Republicans do not trust Hillary/don't like her).
Hillary basically had her boot on Bernie's throat in these polls. if she lets him get up or he manages to get up, she could have real trouble. And it will cost her campaign big money to finish Bernie off.
Because of that, I think Iowa is VERY important.