This is how it looks to me a couple of months

[localroger]

38. This is the logic that sunk HRC in 2008

The single most important thing you are forgetting is that the Democratic primary isn't winner take all. You can still take a significant number of delegates to represent your supporters from states you don't carry. In '08, HRC treated it as if it was winner take all though, totally ignoring states she didn't expect to carry and confidently expecting to own a lock after Super Tuesday. Meanwhile Obama aggressively campaigned in every district where he had a chance to pick up delegates (and he had a full time campaign employee dedicated to scouring the country for such opportunities on a per-district basis). So come Super Tuesday Hillary won all the states but Obama still got 45% of those delegates, and the lock she expected to have wasn't there. She really didn't seem to have a plan to answer that.

And that is really my single biggest problem with her being the nominee. If she misread something as simple as campaign strategy that badly, when she had to be in contact with many people who could have told her what the math really implied, who will be advising her and how will she make decisions as President? It did not leave me with a warm fuzzy feeling.

Make no mistake I'll vote for her if she's the nominee. But that overconfidence in her advantage in the primary is the very reason she wasn't the nominee eight years ago.