2016 Postmortem

Jarqui

(10,122 posts)

18. A 1-2 win leaves the media on this race nothing to talk about except

Mon Jan 11, 2016, 12:23 AM

Jan 2016

how Hillary fell short and why folks are voting for Bernie for the first 20 days of the primary voting - when many start to tune in. It's major free advertising that is almost nothing but good for Bernie and almost nothing but bad for Hillary.

As a result, the downstream primary polls will tighten and at the very least, a competitive primary race is on.

Lose Iowa and it's much tougher for Bernie to make a race of it.

One other thing to keep in mind: Obama was decently ahead in NH and Hillary won in 2008. I think Blackbox.org documented some funny stuff happening with ballots. Whatever. Statement of the obvious as a reminder: leading in the polls doesn't count like an actual vote.

Bernie has to win both. He's now definitely in striking distance. No question about that.

Strongly recommended should Bernie pull it off

Go Bernie!!

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

65 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

The Scenario That Could Become A Nightmare For Hillary Clinton - WaPo [View all] WillyT Jan 2016 OP

Yes, Sanders winning the first two have been plausible for a while... winning SC?! not so much... uponit7771 Jan 2016 #1

Funny how the bar for Sanders keeps getting raised tularetom Jan 2016 #4

People also forget that Nevada is before SC. JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #9

^^this^^ Pharaoh Jan 2016 #16

If he wins Iowa... CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #21

Bill Clinton lost Iowa and NH in 1992, he went on to win the nomination and GE against an incumbent. Thinkingabout Jan 2016 #30

Kind of a weird case though for Clinton Yupster Jan 2016 #32

Is that all you got? Very weak sauce. No comparison CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #38

Facts matter and Iowa or NH makes no one a wrap no matter what the scenario... We'll see in uponit7771 Jan 2016 #43

I think the fact that the Clinton fans CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #50

Reality is good. Thinkingabout Jan 2016 #52

^^^This. ^^^ Anansi1171 Jan 2016 #51

I also read the poll numbers for the national outlook, I also know there are 48 more states Thinkingabout Jan 2016 #54

This message was self-deleted by its author pangaia Jan 2016 #59

The inevitability is a SBS crew idea, not reality... HRC isn't acting inevitable and making sure... uponit7771 Jan 2016 #41

No, for a while means jus that... no one said he COULD not win anything I've not read uponit7771 Jan 2016 #40

It's like deja vu all over again! nt artislife Jan 2016 #53

If Bernie Sandes wins the first two states then he'll get a lot of publicity and donations. NT Eric J in MN Jan 2016 #10

Which wont matter in SC one bit... We'll see uponit7771 Jan 2016 #44

if sanders wins in SC then the AA vote will be in play no matter what anyone says roguevalley Jan 2016 #31

I'd say the AA vote is in play if Bernie breaks 43% in SC. Ken Burch Jan 2016 #36

Sanders can lose the first two win SC and delegates will switch imho, that would be intersting thoug uponit7771 Jan 2016 #45

Your analysis is faulty. Kentonio Jan 2016 #35

It'd be hysterical if Bill dismissed a SECOND HRC loss in SC because "2 many black voters". Ken Burch Jan 2016 #37

Sssssoooo, that's basically what I wrote... that he could win or lose the first two, win SC & then uponit7771 Jan 2016 #46

Hillary is putting her hopes on firmly red states. lumberjack_jeff Jan 2016 #62

That is what has always puzzled me kenfrequed Jan 2016 #63

WOW... 1st, I'm not a LIV so "states" aren't picking our nominee it's dem voters seeing many of thos uponit7771 Jan 2016 #64

You've inadvertently overturned the nutshell. Bernie supporters want the biggest possible mandate. lumberjack_jeff Jan 2016 #65

Scenario ... or fantasy? JoePhilly Jan 2016 #2

Clinton lost to Obama... TheProgressive Jan 2016 #5

Hillary was never going to win Skittles Jan 2016 #17

Hillary Clinton... CSStrowbridge Jan 2016 #19

that was clear PatrynXX Jan 2016 #22

Huh? CSStrowbridge Jan 2016 #39

A very likely result. I can't wait. morningfog Jan 2016 #14

When We Stand Together - No Citizen Need Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious Jan 2016 #3

The Most Wise Words On DU, cantbeserious... WillyT Jan 2016 #6

Feelin The Bern - Good Wishes To All - Thank You cantbeserious Jan 2016 #7

Just Say No to The "Lesser" of two Evils! Too Pitiful To Contemplate... CorporatistNation Jan 2016 #12

It's a long haul. Don't ever take anything Cilliza writes seriously underpants Jan 2016 #8

You May Be Correct... The Fact That He Wrote THIS... Is Great News. WillyT Jan 2016 #11

I saw this coming long ago. A one-two win by Bernie leaves morningfog Jan 2016 #13

Go, Bernie, Go! Enough said. highprincipleswork Jan 2016 #15

A 1-2 win leaves the media on this race nothing to talk about except Jarqui Jan 2016 #18

So some political columnist thinks it would be a nightmare. That's not what Nate Silver thinks. pnwmom Jan 2016 #20

Nate Silver's site was purchased by ABC CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #24

Say it ain't so tularetom Jan 2016 #29

You have selected #1. Please confirm. randome Jan 2016 #48

I've clearly laid out that Silver's opining CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #49

He also said: Loudestlib Jan 2016 #25

A columnist who has always despised the Clintons, too. Ho-hum. randome Jan 2016 #47

#FeeltheBern LS_Editor Jan 2016 #23

K&R azmom Jan 2016 #26

Apparently... This Struck Another Nerve... WillyT Jan 2016 #27

I think the race is still wide open hollowdweller Jan 2016 #28

If this election is Trump V Hillary humbled_opinion Jan 2016 #57

Or Ed Muskie's "tears". Or Pam Schroeder's tears. Art_from_Ark Jan 2016 #60

Winning the first three states is becoming possible too. eom Betty Karlson Jan 2016 #33

Quite possible Katashi_itto Jan 2016 #34

Morning Kick !!! WillyT Jan 2016 #42

It's happening just as I predicted humbled_opinion Jan 2016 #55

It's becoming more likely every day!! Major Hogwash Jan 2016 #56

On another note angrychair Jan 2016 #58

Oops, wrote wrong message in wrong thread Oilwellian Jan 2016 #61