Don't Believe The Polls....

[winter is coming]

16. I believe Selzer's poll is accurate for what it measures.

She employs sound methodology. The joker in the deck is turnout. Guessing how many first-time caucus-goers will actually turn out is just that--a guess, and one that is probably weighted toward the low side, not to skew the results, but simply because you don't have any way to measure the "reliability" of people who have never turned out before.

High turnout, we win. Low turnout, probably a narrow loss. Bernie's relaxed while Hillary seems stressed. He can afford to finish a close second. She can't.