Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: We have too many candidates. What's really going on here? [View all]Celerity
(43,302 posts)That all said
I see the following having no real chance
in no real order
Messam
Gravel
Ryan
Klobuchar
Bennet
Bullock (should run for Senate, but he is my dark horse to break out of this group)
de Blasio
Williamson
Castro (should run for Senate if Beto will not or even if he does)
Delaney
Gabbard
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper (should run for Senate)
Beto (should run for Senate if Castro doesn't or even if he does)
Moulton
Swalwell (would make a superb Senator to replace Harris is Harris is POTUS or VPOTUS)
Yang
that leaves
eight
Biden
Warren
Harris
Buttigieg
Booker (maybe)
Sanders (zero chance he gets the nomination, the system will block him, as he is the only one of the 8 who is a sure loser)
Inslee (maybe)
Abrams (if she runs for POTUS, otherwise she is my number one VPOTUS pick, especially for Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg, should they be top of the ticket)
pulling out Booker, Inslee......
That leaves 6 with any real shot of getting a lot of delegates, and Pete will have to (he certainly is one of the most capable of doing it) have massive debate performances to gain enough traction, and Abrams needs to soon jump in if she has any intention of running for the top of the ticket.
I feel very confident that I am probably correct with most all of this prognostication. The only remotely unclear variables I am not feeling 100% solid on would be Inslee (global climate change concerns exploding) or Bullock (he has a BIG personality and projects executive leadership power every time I have seen him, he would be a great POTUS, I just have that 'gut' feel and he, more than anyone else, even Biden, has a great, proven record of bending a hard RW government to his will over and over and over) or Booker catching fire, and then, the big one, what will Stacey do.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden