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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: This message was self-deleted by its author [View all]hlthe2b
(102,129 posts)20. the single Monmouth poll is an outlier as per this CNN analysis. Time (and more polls) will tell...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/monmouth-august-democrats-biden-warren-sanders/index.html
Joe Biden probably still leads the Democratic race
It's the first national poll that meets CNN's standards since early July to find that there is no clear leader in the Democratic nomination fight, and the first all year to find Biden even statistically insignificantly behind.
So does Monmouth's poll mark a turning point in the Democratic race for president? Or is this merely an outlier that later polls won't back up? My inclination is to say that it's an outlier and to pay attention to the average, though the truth is that we just don't know.
Let's place the Monmouth poll into context of what other polls have found.
If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..
When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters.
Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.
The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.
So does Monmouth's poll mark a turning point in the Democratic race for president? Or is this merely an outlier that later polls won't back up? My inclination is to say that it's an outlier and to pay attention to the average, though the truth is that we just don't know.
Let's place the Monmouth poll into context of what other polls have found.
If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..
When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters.
Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.
The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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The only poll that shows a significant drop in support is the Monmouth poll.
The Velveteen Ocelot
Aug 2019
#2
Now the GOP is CERTAIN to imply he is senile if he is the nominee...why do people fall for
Eliot Rosewater
Aug 2019
#32
Do you think the GOP depends on DU for their talking points? I hate to break it to you but
jalan48
Aug 2019
#34
So we bury our heads in the sand. And guess what? The fucking GOP is going to say it anyway.
Autumn
Aug 2019
#41
It's a difficult thing, and comes down to the 'gut feel' of the individual viewer.
AtheistCrusader
Aug 2019
#38
You do realize that this "latest" poll was taken about 10 days ago, around the same time the CNN
Skya Rhen
Aug 2019
#5
Yes, he still remains in the lead. One poll doesn't cut it. Not my opinion but the experts at 538
Thekaspervote
Aug 2019
#26
Serious question. Did you write a "Kamala Harris campaign is in trouble" thread in the last two
riverine
Aug 2019
#13
One poll not "polls". Monmouth is an outlier with a 5.7% MOE. Wrong on his age group stat too.
Princetonian
Aug 2019
#16
and then there's this poll here on DU. Biden +1 from 2 weeks ago. Warren has surged here. nt
floppyboo
Aug 2019
#23
That's true... DU is a rare group of political wonks. Doesn't represent the voting public thou
Thekaspervote
Aug 2019
#35
I thought from the very beginning that this huge field would come down to Elizabeth vs Joe.
paulkienitz
Aug 2019
#19
It's going to be way more interesting as Sanders v. Warren! Imagine That!!! nt
floppyboo
Aug 2019
#25
the single Monmouth poll is an outlier as per this CNN analysis. Time (and more polls) will tell...
hlthe2b
Aug 2019
#20
Wishful thinking on your part and what about Sen. Warren's inabiity so far to connect with AA voters
Demsrule86
Aug 2019
#21
the normies haven't waded in yet. the polling (all polling) will be more accurate in a month.
Kurt V.
Aug 2019
#33
I believe it is going to come down to Biden versus Warren for the nomination.
Blue_true
Aug 2019
#46