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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
In the discussion thread: Electability. [View all]

Response to bluedye33139 (Original post)

Sun Dec 15, 2019, 02:01 PM

6. It is totally subjective mostly

 

The data set is skewed n that most research is done off congressional elections with the hardening of Red and Blue that becomes a problem as Gender and Race and Even Moderate/Progressive are thrown way off. A progressive black female candidate getting killed if a deep red district really doesn't give us much information You have to massage the data so much to get a meaningful result that it is all but impossible not to have the researchers bias come through.

So what can be said about electability only general tendencies and perhaps some past performances for elected candidates.

in General we can say with a lot of research that women nd people of color are judged more progressive then their actual positions may indicate. They are also judged more harshly. That was fairly easy to draw as there is sufficient data.
After that not much.
Electoral history is also not much of a guide. Our candidates tend not to emerge form swingy constituencies at least at their level. A Klobuchar or Carter are rarer then first appears. What is more those constituencies need to be judged in the time. McGovern coming from ND in 1972 tells us nothing about ND in 2020.
The most common next step is to attempt to see a candidate's strength in relation to other candidates and the recent PVI scores.
But really what does that mean? The fact that Warren for example underperforms in Blue MA, really tells us almost nothing about AZ.

Having said that there is a candidate the has shown remarkable electability and is basically the reason I support her. Sherrod Brown would have made that case but Amy Klobuchar has a lot more data to back it up. She is not only the top Democratic vote getter in every race she has run she is the top vote getter period. What is more when you break that out to Congressional District she has won each of them every time. From the most rural to suburban to urban. There is no denying that from her first to her last race she has shown a level of broad appeal that no other candidate can claim. She has had more people willing to split their ticket to vote for her then any other candidate running at lest in a swingy state, enough so that her margin of victory has always been at least 10% higher then every other democratic candidate that includes Obama.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
bluedye33139 Dec 2019 OP
redqueen Dec 2019 #1
thesquanderer Dec 2019 #3
Otto Lidenbrock Dec 2019 #2
Fiendish Thingy Dec 2019 #4
abqtommy Dec 2019 #5
bluedye33139 Dec 2019 #7
comradebillyboy Dec 2019 #8
bluedye33139 Dec 2019 #9
Cha Dec 2019 #12
LineNew Reply It is totally subjective mostly
judeling Dec 2019 #6
Gothmog Dec 2019 #10
bluedye33139 Dec 2019 #11
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