STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 11 January

[ozymandius]

Tuesday January 11, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 9 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 31 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 85 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1146
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 10, 2005

Dow... 10,621.03 +17.07 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq... 2,097.04 +8.43 (+0.40%)
S&P 500... 1,190.25 +4.06 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.28% -0.01 (-0.16%)
Gold future... 419.70 +0.30 (+0.07%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[54anickel]

1. Good Morning Ozy, and welcome back!!! We missed you.

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning 54anickel. I missed all of you too.

I thought that there would be a little time to check in while on the left coast - but no. I want to say a grand THANK YOU! :toast: :hug: :pals:

I managed to peek at the newspapers while away and caught a glimpse of the closing averages. There's so much catching up to do.

I read the horrible news about Khephra's passing. His stature as a DU institution in his quality as a poster and as a person makes this horrible beyond words. I had to sit silently for a few moments this morning as my fingers did not want to work.

Ozy

[54anickel]

8. Yes, very sad about Khephra. He will be missed dearly at DU. Yet

I take comfort in the notion that he passed both quickly, and at his keyboard doing what he seemed to love.

[UpInArms]

15. oh Ozy,

you make me understand that I should change my "homepage" to the DU homepage so that I don't have to go around so oblivious -

now I am weeping :cry:

I shall miss Khephra so very much. He was the one who taught me how to "post" and he was so full of life and humor throughout it all.

:cry:

[UpInArms]

2. Welcome Back Ozy!

:hi:

Hope your trip went wonderfully!

[ozymandius]

10. Good morning UpInArms!

The trip was exhaustingly fun. It rained every day we were there. There were even two tornado warnings - very rare in SoCal.

We managed some hours at the beach between waves of rain and found an exquisitely ocean-carved piece of driftwood. It looks to be out of teak with many worm holes and pebbles embedded into it.

It's good to be back. My time will be short here as I need to make some preparations for tomorrow when I start my new job.

Did I miss any bombshell news while away?

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

17. News?

Well, the MSM probably won't make such a big deal of it, but the fact has come out that the *Co mal-administration has been paying pundit/s with taxpayer dollars to propagandize the citizenry of the USoA.

I do believe that if more FOIAs are answered we will find out that there have been many many many instances of this in the past 4 years.

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.89 Change -0.40 (-0.48%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1105438151-9e32d306-16346

Forex - Dollar wanes after new Snow comments

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar's recent recovery against the euro came grinding to a halt after US Treasury Secretary John Snow dampened down on speculation the Bush administration was growing concerned about the currency's depreciation

The dollar mounted a surge on Friday when Snow said the administration will back its so-called strong dollar policy with sustained action on the budget deficit, without making any explicit reference to the market. However, in overnight comments Snow insisted he believed in market forces and free capital flows

"Snow quashed any remaining speculation that the dollar's decline to date is sufficient to correct US imbalances," said BNP Paribas' global head of FX strategy Hans Redeker

The dollar has been in the doldrums in recent months as concerns over the US' twin deficits combined with talk that central banks around the world are reviewing the structure of their currency reserves away from the US currency

However, the dollar moved sharply higher on Friday after Snow's comments then and continued evidence that the US economy is outperforming the euro zone in most respects

...more...

(I knew those were mouthfarts :evilgrin: )

Here's a bit of trouble on the horizon:

AMD warns Q4 sales could lag
Stock falls as analysts cut profit forecasts

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B45AF86A6%2DEFAF%2D449F%2DA8DF%2D3F4A6983C401%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Advanced Micro Devices shares fell nearly 11 percent in pre-market trade Tuesday, after the tech bellwether said fourth-quarter sales rose slightly from the third quarter, suggesting the company's revenue may fall below Wall Street expectations.

<snip>

Analysts had expected AMD to post sales of $1.35 billion, on average, based on a survey of analysts by Thomson First Call, but they began cutting their estimates Tuesday.

<snip>

The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based firm said after the bell on Monday that "fourth-quarter operating income is anticipated to be positive, but down significantly" from the third-quarter total of $68.4 million.

...more...

Whoopsie!

Maybe those Taser shocks (to their stock) weren't just for accounting methods?

Taser's 2005 orders may be delayed due to testing

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38363.3308419444-830840087&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Taser International (TASR) said some orders may be delayed during the first half of 2005 as agencies test and evaluate potential new entrants. The stun gun maker said it was confident in the safety evaluations already performed, and believes it can maintain its market leadership through an expanded research and development team. The stock closed Monday down 12 percent at $20.05.

No Reports due today.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

5. Dollar Drops After Snow Suggests U.S. Won't Try to Halt Decline

Bwahahahahaha


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aZvRZpJp606Q&refer=us


Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped the most in almost three weeks against the euro after Treasury Secretary John Snow suggested the U.S. won't strengthen its currency.

Exchange rates are best set by markets, Snow said late yesterday. By contrast, he said on Jan. 7 that U.S. policy makers want to ``sustain the strength'' of the dollar, remarks that helped spur its second-biggest weekly gain ever against the euro. The U.S. currency fell for a third straight year in 2004.

``Snow's comment brought us back to the old story that action from the U.S. to support the dollar is very unlikely, so people are putting back bets that the dollar will weaken,'' said Kristjan Kasikov, a currency strategist in London at Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA.

snip>

Snow said on Jan. 7 in a CNBC interview ``we want to do things that sustain the strength of the dollar,'' including reducing the budget gap. He didn't highlight previous remarks favoring market forces setting currency values. Snow yesterday told Reuters in a television interview that ``just because I don't say something doesn't mean it's not part of our policy.''

more...

Idjit!!! Tell me he's so stupid he doesn't realize the currency markets are hanging on his every word!!! He's either too stoooopid for the job, or he's LY-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-Y-ING

[UpInArms]

31. Dollar drifts lower vs. euro, yen

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B943B3393%2DF0A9%2D482A%2D8CAD%2D855DFBF79319%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The dollar continued to drift lower against the euro and the yen in U.S. trade Tuesday, but the greenback's decline stabilized as caution ahead of U.S. trade figures hampered further bouts of profit-taking.

<snip>

ABN Amro foreign currency analysts said last week's dollar rally against the euro found resistance at the $1.30 level. "Few will want to sell it much lower ahead of tomorrow's key U.S. trade data," they said in a research note.

Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch expect the trade gap to have narrowed to $53.6 billion in November from $55 billion the previous month.

The U.S. currency's decline gathered momentum overnight as new comments by Treasury Secretary John Snow dampened expectations that the administration would intervene to boost the dollar.

Speaking on Reuters TV, Snow clarified that the administration believes that "market forces should determine foreign exchange levels." The comments contrasted with another interview on Friday, when Snow said that support of a strong dollar may require action on the ballooning U.S. budget and trade deficits.

...more...

[54anickel]

48. Snow knows sumptin'. Perhaps the fix is in...the deficit numbers will

beat analysts expectations - this time. :evilgrin:

Wasn't he this cocky and visible the last time that happened?

[UpInArms]

4. and the layoffs keep piling in

200 cut in start of layoffs by Phila.

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/states/pennsylvania/10614007.htm?1c

Pink slips went out to about 200 City of Philadelphia employees yesterday as part of a long-planned series of layoffs.

But it could be some time before city officials know exactly who is leaving the payroll. Rules governing city workers allow senior employees whose positions have been eliminated to "bump" those with less seniority. Mayoral spokesman Dan Fee said the full impact of the layoffs would likely not be felt until the end of the current fiscal year, June 30.

The Civil Service layoffs, which represent less than 1 percent of the city's workforce of about 28,000, are the first in Philadelphia government in over two decades. Twenty different city departments will be affected, including the Recreation Department and the Streets Department, which plows snow and collects garbage.

Employees of the Police and Fire Departments were also let go, but Fee said those were administrative personnel, not uniformed officers or firefighters. Fraternal Order of Police president Robert Eddis said none of his members were laid off.

Fee declined to specify which departments would be most affected by the personnel moves, which are part of efforts to slash the city payroll by 1,300 positions before July 1. City Managing Director Philip R. Goldsmith said 1,050 of those would come from the executive branch.

...more...

General Motors plans more job cuts this year

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/business/10613710.htm?1c

General Motors Corp., the world's biggest automaker, plans to trim its U.S. work force again in 2005, part of an ongoing effort to reduce costs, chairman and chief executive Rick Wagoner said Monday. GM has trimmed its U.S. payroll every year since 2000, company figures show. Wagoner, speaking to reporters at the North American International Auto Show, declined to place a number on targeted reductions, but he said the pattern likely would follow that of recent years. Through the third quarter of 2004, GM reduced its U.S. hourly work force by about 6 percent versus the same period in 2003 — from 119,000 to 112,000, GM figures show. For the same period, its smaller, salaried work force declined by 5 percent — from 40,000 to 38,000. The bulk of the reductions were through attrition and retirements, GM said.

...more...

Ford cuts 110 workers at Windsor plant, cites poor Freestar sales

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/10616277.htm?1c

WINDSOR, Ontario - Ford Motor Co. has laid off 110 people at its engine plant across the Detroit River from Detroit.

Monday's layoffs bring the total number of layoffs to 325 at the Essex Engine Plant.

Ford cited poor sales of its Freestar minivan for the move.

Canadian Press quoted a local Canadian Auto Workers official as saying he expects more job losses in the weeks to come because of restructuring.

...more...

AE raises number of planned layoffs

http://www.coloradoan.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050111/BUSINESS/501110321/1046

Advanced Energy Industries Inc. plans to lay off 280 employees by June 30 - 80 more than the 200 layoffs it announced in October. The number includes about 120 people in its Fort Collins and Hachioji, Japan, facilities.

Fort Collins-based AE, which makes tools used by makers of microchips and computer monitors, plans to move its high-volume manufacturing operation to Shenzhen, China.

Most of the employees who will be laid off already know their termination date, said Cathy Kawakami, the company's director of investor relations. In Japan, layoffs must be voluntary, she said.

In connection with the reduction in headcount, the company expects to record charges of approximately $3.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2004 and about $1.5 million in the first half of this year.

As of Sept. 30 - before it announced its plan to lay off workers - Advanced Energy employed 870 people at its Fort Collins campus. The company will release a revised headcount when it files its fourth-quarter report in February, Kawakami said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

63. PeopleSoft (6000) layoffs coming Friday

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/11/technology/oracle_layoffs.reut/

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oracle Corp. said Tuesday that the announcement on layoffs at recently acquired PeopleSoft Inc. would come on Friday.

Oracle's Chief Financial Officer Harry You told Reuters on the sidelines of the Needham & Co. Growth Conference that the layoffs would come Friday. He would not specify how many jobs would be lost, except to say Oracle will do what makes financial sense.

Industry analysts have estimated at least 6,000 jobs may be lost.

...more...

the M&A job shredding machine at work

[54anickel]

7. The Sure-Thing Syndrome (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050110-mon.html#anchor0

In the end, denial is usually the only thing left. In my view, that’s pretty much the case today in world financial markets. Imbalances on the real side of the global economy have moved to once unfathomable extremes. And now the Federal Reserve belatedly enters the fray threatening to take away the proverbial punch bowl from a rip-roaring party. Financial markets hardly seem concerned over this impending collision. Spreads on most risky assets have fallen to razor-thin margins. Steeped in denial, investors have once again become true believers in the sure-thing syndrome.

There can be no mistaking the absence of risk aversion in most segments of world financial markets. Even in the aftermath of the Fed’s early January wake-up call, so-called spread products have barely flinched. That’s true of high-yield and emerging-market debt, and it’s also the case for investment grade and bank swaps spreads. Even pricing of the “riskless” asset -- US Treasuries -- remains in rarefied territory, as yields on 10-year notes oscillate around the 4.25% threshold. At the same time, equity-market volatility has all but vanished into thin air.

Market chatter is laced with impeccable logic as to why it still pays to buy risk. In most cases, the arguments rest on perceptions of “improved fundamentals.” Awash in cash flow and riding the wave of a new era of sustained productivity growth, Corporate America has nothing to worry about, most believe. That impression is evident across the risk spectrum, from high-yield to investment-grade companies. A similar verdict has been rendered with respect to emerging markets -- long the most crisis-prone segment of world financial markets. Improved external debt positions have the consensus convinced that emerging-market risk has also entered a new era. Hernando Cortina points out that emerging-market equities are now trading at the smallest discount to developed-market equities in a decade (see his 3 January research note, “Is There Still Upside in Emerging Markets?”).

Perceptions of a Teflon-like US economy underpin this denial. A personal saving rate that has plunged to zero is widely dismissed as irrelevant. After all, goes the argument, it doesn’t reflect the new asset-based saving tactics of American consumers. Related to that, record levels of household indebtedness are now viewed as just fine -- a logical outgrowth of ever-appreciating asset values and super low financing rates. The budget deficit is depicted as “normal.” And why worry about a world record current-account deficit? Foreign investors know full well, goes the argument, that America is special -- offering superior rates of return and a system that the rest of the world can only envy. At the same time, Asian central banks have little choice other than to support the bid for dollar-denominated assets, lest they lose the currency competitiveness that lies at the core of their export-led growth models.

This sure-thing syndrome all hangs together under the general rubric of what has been called the “carry-trade.” In its most basic sense, the carry trade depicts an unusually tantalizing financing climate -- in this case, underwritten by the extraordinary monetary accommodation of America’s Federal Reserve. The real federal funds rate was lowered into negative territory in 2002 and has only very recently moved back to the “zero” threshold. This marks the most protracted period of negative real short-term US interest rates since the late 1970s -- hardly a comforting comparison. Carry trades have become no-brainers for yield-starved investors, who can borrow for nothing at the short end of the curve and pocket the spread virtually anywhere else in the risk spectrum. Carry trades also become no-brainers for income-short American consumers, who can draw down income-based saving and use a very facile refinancing technology to extract newfound purchasing power from asset markets. America is hardly alone in reaping the spoils of the carry trade. In a US-centric global economy, the Fed has become the world’s central bank, and America’s carry trade has morphed into the global carry trade.

more...

[UpInArms]

9. China’s trade surplus widens in December

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e7b97b94-63c4-11d9-b0ed-00000e2511c8.html

China recorded the largest monthly trade surplus in nearly a decade in December, adding to pressure on the central government’s efforts to manage demands for a revaluation of the Chinese currency.

The trade figure’s release coincided with the arrival in Beijing of Don Evans, the outgoing US commerce secretary, whose visit signals a possibly more aggressive approach from the second Bush administration to reining in the bilateral trade deficit running at more than $100bn a year.

China was also targeted in a report released on Tuesday in the US. Prepared for a union-backed think-tank, the report blamed trade with the mainland for the loss of nearly 1.5m jobs between 1989 and 2003.

Seperately, China’s foreign exchange reserves grew to $610bn at the end of last year, according to a central bank official cited by Dow Jones. This would compare with forex reserves of $403bn at the end of 2003, providing more evidence of continued large inflows of speculative money.

<snip>

The breakdown for December has yet to be released by the Commerce Ministry, but the overall figures are consistent with strong export growth to the US, Europe and Japan, China’s three major markets.

...more...

Our deficit numbers will come out tomorrow (but they will be for Nov):

Jan 12 8:30 AM
Trade Balance Nov
report -
briefing.com -$52.3B
market -$54.0B
last report -$55.5B
revised -

Jan 12 2:00 PM
Treasury Budget Dec
report -
briefing.com $0.0B
market -$0.0B
last report -$17.6B
revised -

[RawMaterials]

11. Interview: Heart of gold give portfolios a natural edge

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/918f8a8c-60f0-11d9-af5a-00000e2511c8%2Cstream%3DFTSynd%2Cs01%3D2.htmlWall


“You should always, always, keep 10 per cent of your portfolio in gold,” says Frank Holmes, chief investment officer of US Global Investors, a Texas-based group of funds.

It sounds like an advertisement for one of the group's many natural resource-based funds but there is sound reasoning, too.

“It's a natural hedge, uncorrelated with other asset classes. At the moment, you will have a profit that can then be reinvested elsewhere. If you had stuck to it during the dotcom boom and kept re-topping it to 10 per cent each year, you would have had fewer, and lost less on, tech stocks,” he explains.

Gold prices troughed during the late 1990s when the focus was firmly on spectacular equity market growth. The subsequent slide in stocks shifted attention to alternative assets while, more recently, the dollar's fall has helped boost gold, which tends to move in the opposite direction. Spot prices for the metal have risen 57 per cent since January 2002 and now stand at more than $414 a troy ounce from $278.7 three years ago.

Commodity prices more generally have risen sharply as a result of increased demand, particularly from China, as part of the global recovery. Stocks linked to natural resources, in which Mr Holmes specialises, have also outperformed. Last year the materials sector of the S&P Global 1200 rose 16.2 per cent compared with 12.5 per cent for the whole index.

rest is abit gold buggy and promotional

[54anickel]

20. Gold May Rise on Concern Inflation Will Accelerate

Oh boy, here we go...:eyes:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=adPU0IbDepVE&refer=latin_america

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for the first week in four on speculation faster economic growth will stoke inflation, eroding the value of U.S. stocks and bonds and spurring demand for the metal as a store of value, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Twenty-eight of 40 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from South Korea to London and New York on Jan. 6 and Jan. 7 advised buying gold, which fell 5.3 percent in the past two weeks. Ten said to sell the precious metal. Two were neutral.

Gold rose 5.4 percent last year, partly on expectations increased fuel costs would boost inflation. U.S. consumer prices in November had their biggest year-on-year gain since May 2001. Gold futures surged to $873 an ounce in 1980, when prices rose 12.5 percent from the previous year.

``Inflation will benefit gold,'' said Stuart Flerlage, managing principal of Brownstone Advisors LLC, a New York-based investment company with $100 million in futures, including gold.

more...

[RawMaterials]

37. did theyknow about 911

Gold rose 5.4 percent last year, partly on expectations increased fuel costs would boost inflation. U.S. consumer prices in November had their biggest year-on-year gain since May 2001.

[54anickel]

12. Wall Street Hears Pitch for Social Security Plan

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/11/business/11social.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1105450437-MoDfbAFGmRwRgaZbo1Ii3w

snip>

"The secretary will make the case that reform is needed to guarantee retirement benefits for today's youth, given the system's insolvency," said Robert Nichols, a spokesman for Mr. Snow. "The byproduct will put the nation's fiscal affairs in order by addressing the $10 trillion in unfunded obligations, a move that will be well received by the financial markets."

But several Wall Street economists expressed doubts about the potential impact on interest rates from floating hundreds of billions of dollars of additional government bonds at a time when it is not clear how the Bush administration is planning to reduce the existing budget deficit.

"The overall impact on the Treasury market would be negative," wrote Kathleen Bostjancic, a senior Merrill Lynch economist, who estimated that the administration plan could lead to increased government borrowing of $54 billion to $120 billion a year for the next 20 years.

Administration officials argue that the new borrowing should have no impact on the market, because investors already know the government faces at least $3.7 trillion in unfunded Social Security obligations over the next 75 years - $10.4 trillion if projected over an "infinite horizon."

snip>

"There is no question that the markets have not reacted negatively," John Lipsky, a supporter of personal Social Security accounts who is chief economist at J. P. Morgan Chase. "Is it because they are O.K. with it, or is because they don't think it will happen? My guess is that a lot of people haven't thought very clearly about it."

more...too hard to pick what to snip, so I think I've made a bit of a mess above.

[54anickel]

14. ACK!!! WTF?

Administration officials have said they also would like to drastically change the way future benefits are calculated, indexing them to rises in consumer prices rather than to increases in wages. Because wages grow faster than prices over the long term, congressional analysts estimate the change would reduce a person's initial retirement benefit in 2065 by more than 40 percent from what is promised under current law.

[RawMaterials]

19. so maybe, maybe

you will be able to by some milk when you retire if you get to ever retire.

[UpInArms]

54. Don't Frighten Seniors, Bush Warns

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=402341

subtitle: Don't Frighten Seniors, Bush Warns Social Security Overhaul Opponents

UIA subtitle: Shhhhh! Those are the people that vote!

NEW YORK Jan 11, 2005 — President Bush says the key to getting Social Security overhaul through Congress is to convince a majority there is a long-term problem and making sure opponents don't frighten seniors into believing their checks are going to be cut.

Asserting "an obligation to lead" on the issue, Bush said an interview with The Wall Street Journal for Tuesday's editions, that he will try to provide political cover for those who support overhaul and make it politically risky to oppose.

"I think two of the things that are going to be important for the members to understand, once they've come to the realization there is a problem, is that no longer can they frighten seniors by saying, if we do this, seniors aren't going to get their checks," he said. "I think it's become pretty clear in people's minds that the issue … does not revolve around those who have retired or those who are near retirement.

...more...

[54anickel]

59. A$$hole! Does he believe that seniors are as self-centered as he

is? "Don't worry, this won't hurt you a bit." A lot (not all, unfortunately) of seniors I know are just as concerned about their children's and grand-children's futures. They also remember the '30's. He conned them once with Medicare. I am hoping they don't allow him to con them again.

Most seniors don't believe in the "I got mine, go get your own" mantra that is so prevalent in our society today.

[UpInArms]

66. Yep, it does think that everyone else is a amoral as it is

Bush: Must fix Social Security now

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDEBBD92A%2D6B46%2D4CA7%2D9218%2D62525DD12FD4%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - President Bush urged Congress Tuesday to act now to add private accounts to Social Security, warning that otherwise the system would be busted by the time today's young workers reach retirement age.

"If you're 20 years old your mid-20s and you're beginning to work, I want you to think about a Social Security system that will be flat bust, bankrupt, unless the United States Congress has the willingness to act now," Bush said at a White House-sponsored event, one of several planned over the next couple weeks.

But critics of Bush's call to let workers divert a chunk of their payroll taxes into private accounts charge that the administration is distorting the fiscal challenges to the entitlement program.

Even if nothing was done to shore up Social Security, future retirees would still be able to receive higher benefits than current retirees now receive on average, said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. That's not a call to do nothing, Baker said, but it shows that the situation "is very far from disaster."

"If you have fear-mongering and crisis-mongering ... it's hard to talk about the subject in a serious way," said Baker, at a forum Monday sponsored by the Democratic-oriented Center for American Progress.

...more piehole spew at link...

[54anickel]

79. Political coverage - yep that's what this is all about....

The call to trim benefits has caused heartburn among some congressional Republicans. Bush, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal published on Tuesday, said he would provide "political cover" to lawmakers, and indicated a detailed plan would come from the White House.

"I have an obligation to lead on this issue -- I think this will be an administrative-driven idea -- to take it on. And therefore, that that be the case, I have the responsibility to provide the political cover necessary for members, I have the responsibility to make the case if there is a problem, and I have the responsibility to lay out potential solutions," Bush told the newspaper.

Repubs have been against SS since it's inception and have been chewing at the bit to starve the beast. Who's up for election in 2 years? They'll hide behind Bush to get it passed.

[ozymandius]

13. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

It’s the beginning of a new year and stocks are off to a slow start. Markets are in negative territory and the financial markets are having difficulties despite upbeat economic and earnings news. The rosy forecast made at the start of a new year is already being questioned. What seems to be the problem? What happened to The January Effect? Money is pouring into pension funds, IRAs and 401(k)s and mutual funds. So why aren’t stock prices soaring? The problem is quite simple. It’s the Fed. The markets got a jolt last week when the December FOMC minutes were released. The minutes suggest the Fed is less likely to pause in its interest-rate increases this year—something the markets weren’t anticipating. The tone of the minutes was more hawkish than usual. It appears that Fed officials had more worries on their mind. Specifically the Fed was concerned over three developments:

Interest rates were too low to keep inflation stable.

Signs of excessive risk-taking in the financial markets.

Global financial imbalances, mainly in the U.S.

-cut-

Something's Gonna Break

That is why the markets are heading into another financial storm. The Fed will keep raising interest rates until something breaks in the economy or the financial markets. All of this will occur at a time of extreme complacency. Last week's reaction by financial experts to the Fed minutes was one of optimism. The “Goldilocks” theory was resurrected again to explain Fed increases. The Fed will raise rate gradually and get the economy into a position where it isn’t too hot or too cold. If that doesn’t work, then the experts will move on to another euphemism “the soft landing”. By the time the financial markets start talking about a “soft landing," you’ll know that things are starting to break either in the financial markets or the economy. Which comes first? I believe it will be the financial markets that break first.

-cut-

Houston, We Have A Problem

Initially the only response to Fed inflating was asset bubbles. Now however, inflation is spilling over into the real economy. It is now visible on Main Street in addition to Wall Street. So what we have today is inflation manifesting itself in all of its forms—asset inflation in the bond, stock, and real estate markets, rising prices in the real economy in raw material, service, and basic goods prices, and in a record trade deficit. It is no wonder the Fed is worried. As long as inflation surfaced in the financial markets or real estate, it could be called a bull market. Now that it is surfacing at the grocery store, department store, dentist and doctor’s office, college campus, it becomes a problem.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

18. Gotta run folks.

I'll check in later if time allows.

Have a great day!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

21. Have a great day Ozy!...n/t

[RawMaterials]

22. not so good

What isn’t clear at the moment is the start of a new trend of inflation psychology taking hold. If companies start buying in anticipation of higher costs, the inflation genie has been let out of the bottle. Rising prices can lead to greater demand by boosting inventories, which in turn can lead to shortages and higher prices. It can lead to a vicious cycle whereby prices push up wages. This cycle in turn pushes up prices. The process then accelerates through anticipation and eventually leads to higher inflation rates and on a worst-case basis—hyperinflation

[54anickel]

25. We may get a good look at the PPT in action this week as the DOW

breaks below 10,500. If the magician seems to divert attention to the S&P, watch the other hand. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

49. S&P strength vies with Nasdaq weakness (watch for sleight of hand)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0E9626E1%2DCF2E%2D4D18%2D85FF%2DAA9CA32D51C0%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

The S&P falls somewhere between the other indices, but still leans toward the bullish view.

Again, the S&P is comfortably confined within its 20-day channel. It hasn't broken under that channel the way the Nasdaq did.

And like the Dow, the S&P is arguably within the consolidation phase of its recent break above the bands in December.

<snip>

If you were forced to pare it down to one sentence, it might go like this -- the Nasdaq's near- to intermediate-term outlook looks slightly ominous, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials don't look all bad.

Again, last week the Nasdaq carved out two straight closes under its 50-day moving average and the lower end of its 20-day Bollinger bands.

Just about any way you interpret it, that's bearish.

At the same time, the Dow and the S&P have maintained a stance above their respective 50-days, and are arguably within the consolidation phase following a prior break above their 20-day Bollinger bands.

Until further notice, their respective uptrends are intact

...more gobblydeegook and doubleplusgoodspeak at link...

[54anickel]

78. HA, but still the uptrends are intact...

The next question becomes which index is "right" -- or is it possible that both are? Again, the next several sessions should add color.

As a practical matter, the easiest near-term approach still ties to the 50-day moving averages. To reiterate, the three levels fall out as follows:

The Dow's 50-day moving average holds at 10,545.
The S&P's 50-day moving average holds at 1,185.
The Nasdaq's 50-day moving average holds at 2,107.

Barring a sustained break under those areas, this is still a near-term consolidation phase, within the context of a longer-term uptrend.

So, how do those 50-day moving averages look at the close?

Dow 10,556.22 -64.81 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,079.62 -17.42 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,182.99 -7.26 (-0.61%)

[54anickel]

16. Ex-Columnist Fined in Stock Trading Scheme

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/11/business/media/11tout.html

Thom Calandra, a former columnist for CBS MarketWatch.com, will pay more than $540,000 to settle federal regulators' charges that he used an investment newsletter to pump up the price of penny stocks he owned before selling them.

In a complaint filed yesterday, the Securities and Exchange Commission accused Mr. Calandra of using The Calandra Report, an Internet investment newsletter, to promote the thinly traded stocks of 23 companies, without disclosing that he owned them, and then went on to sell them for a gain of more than $405,000. Mr. Calandra also failed to tell his readers that he received heavily discounted shares in two mining companies when he recommended them in the newsletter before selling them for a large profit, the complaint said.

snip>

Michael S. Dicke, a deputy assistant district administrator in the S.E.C.'s enforcement division, said: "It's not every day that you find a respected financial journalist, who has a large readership, and then find them selling stocks. It was a serious betrayal of Mr. Calandra's readership."

Mr. Calandra, without admitting or denying any wrongdoing, agreed to return more than $416,000 in trading profits and interest. He will also pay a civil penalty of $125,000.

snip>

A spokesman said that Mr. Calandra was now writing research papers about biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies for LSG International, a consulting firm in San Francisco that offers research for the health care and life sciences industries. In his statement, Mr. Calandra said the settlement with the S.E.C. would allow him to sit on the boards of publicly traded companies.

more...

[kcora]

23. Where does this leave us?

Is it possible to sum up all the good articles that were quoted?

We have a new year, end of Christmas season high, money flowing into IRAs (I think that's just starting though).

Interest rates are ridiculously low - hard on everybody's savings.

Feds are talking about continuing to increase rates, bad for the stock markets.

The dollar is doing poorly. It seems it picked up a little and now is dropping again.

Our national debt is going up with the war and other Bush-related costs.

The talk about social security "reform" - ought to drive up the stock market with early considerations of how much money they expect to be flowing in (and so how much they can chisel out).

Bush also promised to make permanent the tax-free dividends - does that mean more companies will be declaring dividends (like Microsoft did to give old Bill a nice free income check).

Anyone have any interpretation of the combination of these effects?

[54anickel]

27. Good morning kcora, and welcome to DU and the SMW thread.

As to your question, I believe the answer is "up the creek". Either that or - "in a handbasket". :hi:

[JNelson6563]

38. I was just going to recap

Zowie! What big helping of an economic shit-sandwich, eh? Ok so we have weak earnings, lay-offs, inflation, falling dollar, near-panic setting in cause there soon won't be anymore "free money", what else??

To me it looks like a perfect storm on the horizon.

Julie

[54anickel]

24. What Mr. Market can learn from Mother Nature

snip>

The insanity is everywhere
Financial insanity is rampant. Folks are speculating in houses, with many having more than one real estate investment due to the financing that’s available and the belief that real estate is now bulletproof. Insanity pervades the stock market generally, and Internuts/single-digit midgets (with no real businesses) specifically. The fact that Google (GOOG, news, msgs) could have a $50 billion valuation is one sign of the times.

If one looks at credit spreads, they are also at record lows. And then I see Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) trading at around $70, barely flinching despite the discovery that the company manipulated its earnings. Whatever people think of the mortgage giant’s business prospectively, it won’t be the same as it’s been in the past. So, I just shake my head and say, there’s not one pocket of insanity -- it’s everywhere.

Coming back to the earthquake/tsunami analogy, I continue to believe that our stock market is the financial equivalent of an 8.0-plus earthquake waiting to happen. The fact that it has not happened doesn’t mean it won’t, any more than the fact that the Indian Ocean was earthquake-free for so long meant it was immune to this enormous tragedy. Furthermore, I also believe that the speculation I have been detailing over the course of the last couple of years has only guaranteed that whatever damage is slated to befall the stock market has only gotten bigger by the month.

So, the question you have to ask yourself is: If I knew that a place was vulnerable in the not-too-distant future to an earthquake and tsunami, would I go there? Most likely, the answer would be: “Of course not.” Similarly: If I knew that a financial market was prone to epic dislocation, would I aggressively allocate money to that market? My guess would be “No.”

However, the timing of such events is very hard to predict. The longer markets do well (especially in the face of bad news), the more people believe that nothing bad can ever happen. (Of course, sometimes markets “defying” bad news means the news is going to get better. However, when the news doesn’t improve after a market has gone up, the stage is set for disaster.)

more...

[UpInArms]

26. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:15 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.0. Still shaping up to be a lower open for the cash market as investors continue to digest a batch of less than enthusiastic corporate news... With regards to overseas action, Asian markets were mixed while Europe has been weak all morning

09:00 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.0. No real change in sentiment, as futures trade still point to a decidedly negative open for the cash market... Some notable ratings changes also weighing on sentiment include a Morgan Stanley downgrade on Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and downgrades from both UBS and Piper Jaffray on AMD... Wells Fargo Securities has cut its rating on Boston Scientific (BSX) while First Albany has downgraded DNA

08:30 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. An earnings miss from Dow component Alcoa (AA), which kicked off earnings season last night posting Q4 (Dec) EPS of $0.39, $0.03 below expectations, and Q4 (Dec) EPS of $0.21 from biotech giant Genentech (DNA), a penny shy of forecasts, have both contributed to the negative bias... As such, futures trade still indicates a lower start for the indices

08:00 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. Futures market suggesting a lower open for the cash market... A Q4 (Dec) sales warning from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ahead of Intel's (INTC) Q4 results tonight, has weighed on this morning's negative tone as Intel's earnings and any guidance regarding future demand trends is expected to have a large impact on the overall tech sector... A profit margin warning from chipmaker STMicroelectronics (STM) has also contributed to weakness in the chip sector... There will be no major economic releases out today

ino.com

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight and appears poised to renew this year's decline following last week's breakout below the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1581.50. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be near. If March extends this year's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 1547.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1591.65 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 3.50 pt. at 1564.50 as of 5:44 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight but remains above the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1181.58. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be near. If March extends last week's decline, the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at 1181.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1198.12 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. The March S&P 500 Index was down 2.60 pts. at 1189.10 as of 5:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

28. 9:37 EST market are open

Dow 10,574.70 -46.33 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,087.91 -9.13 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,185.66 -4.59 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.277 -0.01 (-0.02%)

NYSE Volume 48,523,000
Nasdaq Volume 118,461,000

[UpInArms]

29. 9:48 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,563.91 -57.12 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,085.23 -11.81 (-0.56%)
S&P 500 1,183.73 -6.52 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275 -0.03 (-0.07%)

NYSE Volume 111,266,000
Nasdaq Volume 223,258,000

9:40 ET Market opens on a downbeat note as earnings season gets off to a weak start... Analysts have been expecting Q4 earnings growth to roughly match the 16% EPS growth enjoyed in Q3... However, deceleration in growth so early on, as witnessed by a sales warning from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 16.40-3.73), an earnings miss from Alcoa (AA 29.51 -0.96) and flat holiday sales at William Sonoma (WSM 33.51 -1.28), to name just a few, have left investors with a mountain of uncertainty to decipher as quarterly results begin to pour in over the next few weeks... Next in queue will be Q4 (Dec) earnings from chip giant Intel (INTC 22.74 -0.14), which is expected to set a more influential tone for technology, and perhaps the entire market, with results after the bell tonight... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

[54anickel]

33. Wow, I have to admit I didn't think we'd see so many weak earning reports

until we got into the reports for '05. Bad start to the year, and don't forget about the requirement to expense options coming up this summer. Not looking too promising.

[54anickel]

30. Going into debt takes hard work

Kenneth Rogoff is a professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University and was formerly chief economist at the IMF. - Ed.

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2005/01/10/200501100010.asp

With the weak dollar hanging like the sword of Damocles over the global economy, almost everyone laments America's spendthrift habits. But did it ever occur to anybody how hard Americans must work to make everyone else look good?
Thanks to America's gaping trade deficits, the biggest headache of every developing country finance minister nowadays is trying to keep his or her country's currency from going up too fast against the dollar. When was the last time that happened? Chronic debt-crisis countries from Mexico to Russia to South Korea are all fighting off capital inflows from investors looking for an exit as the dollar collapses.

Ordinarily, as the world comes out of a downturn and global interest rates rise, at least one or two emerging market countries suffer a spectacular blowup. Not likely this time, at least for the next year.

True, policy in some countries has improved markedly. Brazil and Turkey, for example, have each instituted market-friendly policies that have made their economies more flexible and growth more durable. But can the same be said for Mexico, where reform has stalled, or for Russia, where reforms have been reversed? America's reckless deficit spending is making all their currencies look like good investments for 2005.

So non-Americans should be more appreciative of America's deficits. Do people think it is easy for a 12-trillion-dollar economy to spend beyond its means year after year just to prop up other countries' reputations for stability? It isn't. Going deep into debt when you have that much money to spend takes a lot of hard work.

more...

[UpInArms]

32. Treasurys dip with eye toward dollar, auctions

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4A44ABC7%2D56D5%2D4369%2DA770%2DF39E3A5B6C61%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys were broadly lower early Tuesday, as a second day of declines for the U.S. dollar raised some doubts about foreign participation in this week's government debt auctions.

The benchmark 10-year note was down 4/32 at 99 23/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to price, stood at 4.28 percent compared to 4.26 percent at Monday's close.

There were no economic reports scheduled for release, leaving the bond market to focus on the Treasury Department's sale of $15 billion in 5-year notes set for Wednesday and $10 billion in 10-year inflation-protected notes on Thursday.

Prices tend to decline and yields rise ahead of impending supply, which competes with debt already in circulation.

Bond traders said the market was on the defensive ahead of these auctions in particular because a weaker dollar could curb demand from foreign investors for U.S. debt.

...more...

[54anickel]

34. Sounds like Snow's yanking their chains...n/t

[54anickel]

35. The Ghosts of Nuremberg

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/gaddy3.html

Only a small percentage of Americans would still be able to remember, with any clarity, the trials in Nuremberg, Germany at the close of WWII. The civilized world, led by the United States, moved quickly to bring the criminals of WWII to trial. With America resorting to an aggressive war against Iraq, the ghosts of Nuremberg must surely be stirring about.

There was a time in this country when the Golden Rule actually had meaning. We were quick to criticize those who would attack another sovereign nation without provocation. We used to call those who were attacked and were fighting to defend their country from such aggression, freedom fighters, or at least rebels. Now that we are the aggressor nation, those labels have been changed to "insurgents, militants" or "dead-enders," but that was before God started dictating our foreign policy, using George W. Bush as his spokesperson. It sure changes things when "the big guy" is on your side. I really cannot see why Bush and company bothered with all those lies about WMDs and al-Qaeda connections. Perhaps the democrats would not accept divine intervention.

Back to the ghosts of Nuremberg: the trials began in November of 1945. The Chief Prosecutor, Robert Jackson, on leave from the U.S. Supreme Court, began the proceedings against twenty-one of Adolf Hitler's top lieutenants, including Herman Goering, Wilhelm Keitel and Rudolph Hess, who stood accused by the world's first international tribunal of masterminding horrific crimes. Among the charges listed in the long indictment were crimes against humanity and crimes against the peace.

This crime against the peace was a brand new charge, never before seen in international law. American prosecutors, led by Justice Jackson, had a more sweeping view of justice in mind. They saw the supreme crime at Nuremberg not in any specific act of Nazi mass killing, nor in the construction of the death camps like Auschwitz. For American prosecutors, the supreme crime was a completely new criminal charge: waging aggressive war, or the crime against peace.

more...

[UpInArms]

36. Taser shares plummet (couldn't happen to more "deserving" nasty)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7DD7F15D%2D764F%2D4DCB%2DAC2C%2D516759A24976%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Taser International Inc.'s stock plunged more than 19 percent Tuesday after the company said it may see some delays in orders in the first half of fiscal 2005, as potential customers test and evaluate rivals' products.

Taser (TASR: news, chart, profile) shares were down $3.87 to $16.18 in midmorning trading.

The Scottsdale, Ariz. stun-gun maker made the disclosure in an open letter to shareholders and customers -- which the company normally only publishes in conjunction with it annual report -- intended to ease investors' concerns amid an informal Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry into the safety of its less-than-lethal weapons and the timing of a sale to a distributor.

Since its disclosure of the informal SEC inquiry, Taser shares have plummeted more than 41 percent from its closing Jan. 6, including a drop Monday of 11.8 percent.

After the markets closed Jan. 6, Taser said it was cooperating with the informal SEC inquiry into its safety statements, as well as a sale to distributor Davidson Inc.

<snip>

In addition, Taser disclosed insider sales, in which Phil Smith, who retired as chairman Dec. 31, sold most of the Taser stock he owned.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

39. 10:25 update

Dow 10,574.11 -46.92 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,086.52 -10.52 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,184.42 -5.83 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.267% -0.011

I wouldn't be surprised to see the PPT step in as has been suggested already.

Great thread today, as usual. Great to have Ozy back! :hi: Will check back--have a few meetings in relation to the over-throw.

:toast:

Julie

[54anickel]

41. Always good to "read" you Julie! Keep up the great work...

:toast:

[54anickel]

42. Did you notice the blather author(s) have taken the day off?

[UpInArms]

44. blather here

10:30 ET Equities remain on the defensive following disappointments in the semiconductor space... Lower Q4 sales guidance of $1.24 bln from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 15.88 -4.25), due to lower sales and an operating loss in its flash memory business, have left shares tumbling more than 20%... Analysts had anticipated total sales to reach $1.35 bln based on previous guidance that called for Flash memory sales to be flat to up slightly... The downside revision has prompted Piper Jaffray to downgrade AMD to Underperform from Market Perform, citing difficult pricing from rival Intel (INTC 22.69 -0.19), while UBS has cut its rating on to Reduce from Neutral... Meanwhile, STMicroelectronics (STM 17.96 -0.60), despite guiding Q4 revenues of $2.3 bln in line with analysts' expectations, now expects gross margins to be about 36.6%, below prior guidance of 38-39%... Shares of the European chipmaker have fallen more than 3.0% in early trading... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 758/2140. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 699/2004.

10:00 ET Indices continue to slide as sellers take the majority of industry groups lower... Virtually every sector has encountered weakness in the early going, with semiconductor (-2.2%) and biotech (-1.1%) leading the list of laggards... Also under pressure have been hardware, drug, financial, airline, telecom services, materials, energy and utility while electronic instruments, gold, employment services and retail have been just a couple of areas showing modest strength... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 862/1672. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 719/1748.

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InDepth/StockMarketUpdate.htm

yahoo just not updating :shrug:

[54anickel]

40. Ten problems for 2005

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=39491

1. The rubber will finally hit the road for the automobile manufacturers as well as automobile retailers and auto part suppliers. During a historically difficult economic growth environment, automobile manufacturers have "magically" induced the American public to "buy" their new vehicles at a pace which just a few years ago was thought to be impossible. The problem with the sales activity is that many, if not most, of the sales were encouraged and facilitated through financing that left much of the risk on the seller's balance sheet. The manufacturers basically allowed consumers to get their cars for "little or no money down," in some cases with no payments for 3-6 months, while accepting favorable financing terms (for the buyers) and extracting no collateral to do so. In addition, the manufacturers continued to produce vehicles at a pace that created a glut of new cars that last longer and have better warranties than previous production ramps ups. This has created a situation where we now have the "youngest" and potentially longest "life span" vehicles on the road than ever before. Used car values have dropped substantially, and in the next few years many consumers will own their vehicles "free and clear" and will have little or no incentive to buy a new car.

The real "bogey man" for the automobile manufacturers may come in the form of credit defaults. During this period of peak sales, those sales have become harder and harder to come by, and the sellers have become more and more lenient with credit approvals. Those two factors were a terrible combination for Sears a few years ago, and I foresee a similar problem for the lending arms of the major automobile manufacturers. Finally, as sales slow, the earnings from the financing divisions will drop. While the sales trends have been artificially propped up by incentives and creative financing deals, the bulk of the auto manufacturers' earnings over the past three years have come from the financing of the vehicles. Some 50-75% of profits came from the financing divisions of Ford and General Motors. Slower sales will necessitate difficult production cuts that could last for 12-24 months. The combination of production cuts, lower earnings from the financing arms, and higher credit defaults could produce a very difficult economic reality for the automobile industry.

2) Higher Interest rates will matter and will have a negative impact on many consumer areas, but most significantly on the over-heated HOUSING market. The marginal buyer who was given the gift of low interest rates, an easy lending environment, and lax appraisal process for the last three years will now encounter the reality that a home purchase is "the biggest and most important purchase of your life." Carry costs will become unmanageable, ARM's will adjust higher and raise mortgage payments, and any economic difficulty or career disruption will result in a problem. For new buyers, the mortgage application/approval process, along with the valuation/appraisal process, will become more stringent and less forgiving. The refinance activity that helped to support homeowners with carry costs, upkeep, and home improvements will slow with higher rates and more stable or falling home values. Homeowners will struggle to deal with higher rates on adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) and will find it difficult to extract any new cash from their homes. Low interest rates that fueled strong sales of new and existing homes will be a distant memory, and further increases in home sales and prices will become harder and harder to achieve.

Homebuilders that have continued to forecast unabated sales growth, and have built inventory of spec homes and acquired land for future building, will find a more difficult pricing environment and a less than able consumer. And remember the one about "three hikes and a stumble" and "don't fight the FED"? Well, how about "five hikes and a wipeout" and "don't forget that stocks usually go down when rates go up"!

snip>

I continue to believe that we are in a long-term period of economic decline. I see the last few years, since 2000, and the next few years, till say 2008-2010, as the 2nd Great Depression for the majority of the US population, especially the rapidly growing middle and lower class. As with most things, financial well-being and economic prosperity are "relative" and relative to past economic periods, the current state of our economy and the future economic outlook is at best "relatively" dismal. Unfortunately the baby boomers are unprepared for this economic reality, and the government is totally unprepared to take care of them . As the "greatest generation" lives longer than any of its ancestors, the economic reality of huge healthcare costs, lack of employment opportunity, lack of savings, and high costs of living will create a very difficult period of time for this huge swath of the population during their "golden years."

[54anickel]

43. Wisconsin jobs hit hard by imports, report says

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/jan05/291894.asp

Wisconsin ranks among the 10 states that have suffered the deepest job losses from a flood of low-cost imports into the U.S. from China, according to a study being released today by a Washington-based economics think tank.

The report by the Economic Policy Institute, a labor-supported non-profit, found that Wisconsin lost a net total of 41,150 jobs, or almost 1.5% of its work force, in the 14-year span from 1989 to 2003. That made it the ninth hardest-hit state in terms of jobs lost as a share of total state employment in the period. Maine suffered most in the period with a loss of 15,396 jobs, or 2.5% of its employment, the report found.

The findings hardly come as a surprise to shop-floor workers across the state - those who have seen much of their business and customers gravitate to low-wage Chinese workers in recent years.

But the report is one of the first to attempt to quantify China-induced U.S. job losses on a state-by-state and industry-by-industry basis. The institute used a theoretical measure of lost “job opportunities” instead of attempting to tabulate the number of China-related job losses. The group used data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau to compute the loss of “potential jobs” by using a formula based on export and import statistics.

more...

[UpInArms]

45. Corporate board pay rose 23% in 2004

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38363.4445865162-830845043&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Pay for corporate board members jumped 23 percent in 2004, according to a study released Tuesday by Aon (AOC) . The Chicago-based risk management and insurance company said board pay at small-cap companies rose 25 percent, while pay at mid-cap companies rose 21 percent. Large-cap board members received a 23 percent increase. The study was an an analysis of 1,475 public company regulatory filings, Aon said.

[54anickel]

47. HA! Maybe that helps to explain the alternate "rosy" reality we've been

hearing about. No wonder the well-to-do and suckers that believe in the American pipe dream of "someday I'll be rich too" love BeezleBush.

[UpInArms]

46. sheep caller alert: Merrill's Bob Doll says no "huge bubble" in real estat

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38363.449354456-830845353&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (CBS.MW) - Bob Doll, president and chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, said while real estate investments have done well, "they've not done so well that there's a huge bubble out there that needs to break. Real estate of course is local, local, local and there are some parts of the country, often on the coast, where there have been huge increases, and an inordinate rise in interest rates would hit those areas first." MLIM is a unit of Merrill Lynch & Co., whose shares fell 23 cents in Tuesday morning trade to $57.98.

[RawMaterials]

51. The dark side of the boom

As home values rise, so do property taxes. Here are seven tips for easing the sting.
By 2003, the 40-year-old owned 67 apartments in what was then a rising local real estate market. Murdick's financial future -- as well as that of her daughter -- looked bright

Murdick's total tax bill doubled just when her local rental market had softened. Tenants moved out, fearing rent hikes. When she tried to sell properties, no buyers were willing to meet her asking prices.

"Not with the taxes jacked up," she says. Unable to come up with the additional taxes, Murdick walked away and let the banks foreclose.

The spike in U.S. house prices -- 36 percent over the past four years -- has been a boon for sellers, yet rising values can be bittersweet for neighbors left behind.

Higher prices mean higher property tax assessments, but since these price gains exist only on paper, many homeowners struggle to pay their suddenly higher tax bill

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/11/real_estate/prop_taxes/index.htm

[RawMaterials]

52. what do you guys think of buying a two family to rent out half

to help with the rising cost of home ownership. I'm looking for my first home. :thumbsup: or :thumbsdown:

[54anickel]

55. That's how I started - but it was many moons ago! Not sure if all the

wonderful tax advantages are still available or not. Back you could write off 1/2 of anything you put into the property, landscaping, snow shovels, lawn mowers, etc.

From the article you posted it sounds like there might be some good "deals" on multi-family units. But I'm not really up on it to advise one way or the other. What's the market like in your area - bubbled or not?

[RawMaterials]

73. housing prices have gone up the last couple years

Rank* 1-Yr. 1-Qtr. 5-Yr.
167 3.06 0.73 23.28

from msn.com
*Rank based on annual percentage change
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

I would say the local economy is better then average.

house's in the particular neighborhood are a little more expensive then others, but a good example would be a house that appraised at 140k in 2002 is on the market for 215k.

the particular house I'm kind off looking at is by a college,and 7 hospitals but the side that houses more young professional and old people that are buying up 1900 style mansions and fixing them up if i tried to buy my own house in the neighborhood it would take at least 250k for a 3BR
I would say im hand i can fix almost any thing and im good with my hands.

[UpInArms]

56. depends on how much of a "handyman" you can be

if you're really good :thumbsup:

if not, :thumbsdown:

there are advantages, you can claim depreciation expense which will offset some of the income

there are disadvantage, you might not like your closest neighbors, costs for maintaining two residences can double and real estate taxes are higher, sometimes the water meter is not separate, sometimes the rental market is soft, sometimes your tenants might not be able to pay rent (job market soft)

it's kind of a personal decision - you need to weigh the pros and cons

[54anickel]

60. Heh, you just reminded me of some of the reasons I didn't like being

a landlord...tenants. I had some great ones (they are the ones that are foremost in my fond memories of that time). But then again there were a couple of "not so good" ones (that I had forgotten about - until now - ugh). Yes, separate utilities would be a must have on my shopping list, along with a well-written lease.

[shrike]

58. Thumbs up, with reservations

Like UIA said, if you're no handyman, you'll have trouble.

You'll also need the patience of Job, if your tenants are right next door; they'll be calling you for all sorts of problems.

My two cents,

the daughter of a landlord.

[54anickel]

53. Bwahahaha, or should I say ba-a-a-a-a!...eom

[UpInArms]

50. Nortel Files Restatement; Officials to Repay Bonuses

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aaucfrUuL3cQ&refer=top_world_news

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Nortel Networks Corp. completed a restatement of results from 2001 to 2003 and said 12 executives will repay the company about $8.6 million in bonuses they got based on the incorrect figures.

Directors L.R. Wilson, L. Yves Fortier, Sherwood Smith Jr., Guylaine Saucier and James Blanchard won't stand for re-election, Brampton, Ontario-based Nortel said in a statement today.

Chief Executive Officer William Owens, 64, is cleaning up Nortel's finances after the company said it misreported results, including overstated sales. Accounting regularities led to the ouster of his predecessor, Frank Dunn, and other executives, and are the subject of government probes in the U.S. and Canada.

``The restatement has been a monumental task, both complex and demanding,'' Owens said in the statement.

Nortel, the largest North American phone-equipment maker, cut its 2002 loss to 78 cents a share from 85 cents and reduced its 2001 loss to $8.08 a share from $8.52. The company also named Susan Shepard ethics and compliance officer.

An independent review of the company's accounting resulted in extensive recommendations on improving the ``transparency and integrity'' of its statements, Nortel said. All of them were adopted by the board, the company said.

...more...

now if we can just get our (the taxpayers' $240,000 back from that Williams thief...

[54anickel]

57. Well, it's a start. Not much consulation for the workers effected though

Owens is cutting 3,250 jobs and other costs to boost results as the nine-month accounting review crimps sales and causes Nortel to fall behind rivals. Nortel said last week fourth- quarter revenue was $2.8 billion, the low end of its forecast.

No one seems to see the greater cost to society as a whole caused by these scams.

[54anickel]

61. 11:40 check before the lunch break

Dow 10,575.36 -45.67 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,086.08 -10.96 (-0.52%)
S&P 500 1,185.05 -5.20 (-0.44%)
10-yr Bond 4.267% -0.011
30-yr Bond 4.805% -0.022
NYSE Volume 571,789,000
Nasdaq Volume 884,808,000

11:30 ET Dow -49, Nasdaq -10, S&P -5.43
Major indices continue to sport losses as market breadth remains decisively bearish... Decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq continue to outpace advancers by a more than 2 to 1 margin... Down volumes also hold a convincing edge over up volumes while total activity on the Big Board has recently surpassed 500 mln while the Composite continues its push toward 1.0 bln shares by midday... Meanwhile, the Nasdaq remains about 15 points off its 50 day moving average near the 2100 level while the S&P continues to hover just above its January low/50-day moving average near 1182... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 941/2109. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 856/2014.

11:00 ET Dow -51, Nasdaq -11, S&P -6.40
With no economic news out this morning, all eyes remain fixated on earnings as catalysts to support broad-based profit taking... Alcoa (AA 29.83 -0.64), the first to report Q4 results, posted earnings of $0.39 per share but missed expectations by three cents, blaming higher energy costs and a weaker dollar... Shares, which were off 1.4% in after-hours trading, have fallen another 2.0% today; but while Alcoa's leadership as the world's largest producer of aluminum holds merit, its smaller weighting on the Dow has held less of an influence on the index's overall performance... Trading lower in sympathy, despite its recent ability to better capitalize on elevated aluminum prices, has been rival Alcan (AL 45.66 -0.38)... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 832/2164. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 769/2031.

10:30 ET Dow -52, Nasdaq -12, S&P -6.65
Equities remain on the defensive following disappointments in the semiconductor space... Lower Q4 sales guidance of $1.24 bln from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 15.88 -4.25), due to lower sales and an operating loss in its flash memory business, have left shares tumbling more than 20%... Analysts had anticipated total sales to reach $1.35 bln based on previous guidance that called for Flash memory sales to be flat to up slightly... The downside revision has prompted Piper Jaffray to downgrade AMD to Underperform from Market Perform, citing difficult pricing from rival Intel (INTC 22.69 -0.19), while UBS has cut its rating on to Reduce from Neutral... Meanwhile, STMicroelectronics (STM 17.96 -0.60), despite guiding Q4 revenues of $2.3 bln in line with analysts' expectations, now expects gross margins to be about 36.6%, below prior guidance of 38-39%... Shares of the European chipmaker have fallen more than 3.0% in early trading... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 758/2140. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 699/2004.

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1009 (30%) 831 (27%)
Declines 2065 (63%) 2070 (68%)
Unchanged 184 (5%) 118 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 122 (23%) 232 (27%)
Down Vol* 381 (74%) 588 (70%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (1%) 16 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 35 32
New Lo's 15 29

[UpInArms]

65. 12:13 EST downdate and blather

Dow 10,557.11 -63.92 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,081.85 -15.19 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,182.79 -7.46 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 42.62 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 666,589,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,002,821,000

12:00 ET Market averages opened lower and have kept a negative tone intact all morning following a multitude of disappointing corporate news that kicked off earnings season on a sour note... An earnings miss from Alcoa (AA 29.89 -0.58), due to higher energy costs and a weaker dollar, had prompted a cautious bias about the upcoming earnings season before a slew of miscues from several others merely validated a deceleration in growth, giving sellers the green light to step in and push nearly every sector into negative territory... Semiconductor (-2.1%) has paced the way to the downside following a downward Q4 sales revision from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 15.95 -4.18) due to weakness in its flash memory business... The warning has mounted concerns that Intel (INTC 22.62 -0.26), which will report Q4 earnings after the close of trading and typically dictates the overall tone of trading in technology, could also disappoint... Biotech (-1.3%) has lost substantial ground after Genentech (DNA 52.09 -2.34) missed quarterly results by a penny while broad-based profit taking has also kept everything from financial and pharmaceutical to homebuilding and health care under pressure... Meanwhile, treasuries have been relatively quiet most of the morning, as the benchmark 10-year note is up 3 ticks to yield 4.25%... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1068/2056. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 868/2081.

[54anickel]

62. Something has lit a fire under silver today. Look at that chart.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&v=s

Last trade 6.61 Change +0.16 (+2.48%)

Open 6.45 Previous Close 6.45

High 6.62 Low 6.45

Bid 6.61 Ask 6.64

[54anickel]

64. I'M WORRIED ABOUT MY RETIREMENT; YOU SHOULD BE, TOO

Heh-heh, this is sort of "cute". Hey, whatever it takes to get attention!

http://www.nypost.com/business/38270.htm

snip>

So what's really going on? I decided to discuss it with myself — which happens frequently when people suffer cabin fever — to sort things out.

Me: So, John, is Social Security really the mess that people say?

Me Too: It seems to be.

No matter how much you squint, it looks like the system will eventually go broke. There will be too few people working and paying into the "trust fund" and too many of us old-timers entitled to benefits.

snip>

Me: But people say that these private accounts will solve the problem?

Me Too: Who says? The same people on Wall Street who wanted these accounts set up in 1999? If people had been allowed to invest their Social Security money privately back then, millions of Americans would have gotten caught up in the market bubble and would be a lot worse off now.

snip>

Me Too: When the economy slows and corporate profits weaken, then the stock market will go down.

So all those private accounts you let people set up will lose value.

Me: It seems like a guaranteed disaster.

more...

[Pegleg Thd]

68. I have a relative

who works for the guberment. He told me that the bush social security scheme is is giant ponzi mess that is designed to completely collapse in less than 10 years after it starts. Just a word of warning...

[barb162]

70. well, he wants SS dead one way or another, doesn't he

[JNelson6563]

67. Quick market check

12:54

Dow 10,548.76 -72.27 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,078.15 -18.89 (-0.90%)
S&P 500 1,182.42 -7.83 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.254% -0.024

Getting a little bloody.

Julie

[54anickel]

69. Ouch! Will the 2:00 fairy dust make an appearance today? S&P is

kissing 1,180.00...

Dow 10,535.31 -85.72 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 2,073.84 -23.20 (-1.11%)
S&P 500 1,180.95 -9.30 (-0.78%)
10-yr Bond 4.249% -0.029
30-yr Bond 4.783% -0.044
NYSE Volume 818,569,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,263,039,000

Gotta run again for the afternoon! Will check back to see what the closing numbers end up being.

[UpInArms]

71. a side of blather

1:00 ET Indices extend their reach into negative territory as sellers remain an active bunch... Touching lows not seen since early December has been McDonald's (MCD 31.26 -0.41) after a new case of Mad Cow disease was reported in Canada... In the past, shares of fast-food giant have tended to bounce after the initial negative reaction to Mad Cow cases, as the stock has recently tested its 50-day moving average at $31.15... However, Dow stocks recently testing their 50-day averages have tended to break through key support levels... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1053/2155. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 812/2202.

12:30 ET Dow -67, Nasdaq -19, S&P -7.76
Selling intensifies, pushing the indices to their lowest levels of the session... Trading higher, however, has been gold ($423.20/oz +0.8%)... Interest in the precious metal, which fell 4.3% last week while the greenback strengthened nearly 4% against the euro, has been restored as gold remains a more attractive hedge against declines in US assets and potential inflation... Meanwhile, the dollar has lost ground against the euro (1.3146) after ECB Chief Economist Issing said the run-up in the euro had gone too far... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1096/2072. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 805/2172.

[54anickel]

72. Uh0oh, breaking through key support levels. Can they turn these into

a buying opportunity claiming big "B" little "argain"?

[UpInArms]

74. 2:11 EST and lots of fairy dust appearing

Dow 10,589.55 -31.48 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,087.82 -9.22 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,187.17 -3.08 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.247 -0.31 (-0.72%)

NYSE Volume 1,004,996,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,543,976,00

[RawMaterials]

75. 2:51 ESTMarket Update

2:30PM: Indices trades near improved levels but the recovery effort stalls, as the Nasdaq still leads its blue chip counterparts into negative territory... Recently, shares of Apple Computer (AAPL 66.13 -2.83) plummeted after the computer maker said it sold 4.5 mln iPods in the 2004 holiday quarter, merely matching or coming in slightly lower than what many analysts had expected... Other technology laggards have been TASR (-24.5%), CIEN (-5.0%), JDSU (-2.4%), EBAY (-1.6%) and SUNW (-1.3%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1288/1971, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1043/2041

2:00PM: Market lifts off its worst levels but losses still remain hefty... On the Dow, 28 of the 30 components have lost ground... Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 19.98 -0.83) has been under the most pressure after it was downgraded to Underweight from Equal weight by Morgan Stanley while AA, GE, INTC, MCD, MRK and PFE have all lost in excess of 1.0% on the day... Extending yesterday's 2.0% gain, however, has been 3M (MMM 84.45 +0.51)... The Dow recently set a new low for the month, probing its 50 day average near the 10550 level...NYSE Adv/Dec 1075/2178, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 797/2267

[RawMaterials]

76. Stock markets ailing

Major gauges return to negative mode after 1-day reprieve; techs slide after AMD warning

Stocks had managed modest gains Monday, the first up day for all the major gauges after a decidedly negative start for 2005. But the tone remained tentative, and the spate of negative corporate news late Monday and early Tuesday pushed stocks lower.

Among the factors weighing: a profit warning from AMD and a tough start to the fourth-quarter earnings reporting period, marked by profit misses late Monday from Alcoa and Genentech.

snip..

Treasury prices rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down to 4.24 percent from 4.27 percent late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and yen.

COMEX gold rose $2.90 to $422.60 an ounce, rising with other dollar-traded commoditie

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/11/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

[DoBotherMe]

77. Closing numbers

Dow 10,556.22 -64.81 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,079.62 -17.42 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,182.99 -7.26 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% -0.034 (-0.79%)

NYSE Volume 1,488,416,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,216,060,000

OUCH!

Close: Stocks opened with a tinge of caution amid concerns that quarterly results may not live up to expectations, but broad-based profit taking maintained a bearish bias all day and prevented the indices from ever recovering... A disappointment from Alcoa (AA 29.77 -0.70), which kicked off the Q4 earnings season, spurred the first batch of uncertainty while several pre-announcements in the tech sector essentially confirmed that a deceleration in growth may be forthcoming...
While analysts have been expecting Q4 earnings growth for the S&P of about 16%, relatively in line with EPS growth in Q3, buyers remained hesitant all day and waited for potentially encouraging earnings and/or guidance to come out of Intel (INTC 22.54 -0.34) after the bell... Meanwhile, virtually every sector closed lower... Technology was down across the board, with semiconductor (-2.5%) directing the downward surge on the heels of Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD 14.81 -5.32) Q4 sales warning (ahead of Intel's quarterly results) and a gross margin pre-announcement from STMicroelectronics (STM 17.78 -0.78)...

Computer hardware (-1.6%) was also under pressure after Apple Computer (AAPL 66.13 -2.83) failed to deliver "big" enough news regarding the number of iPods (4.5 mln) sold during the 2004 holiday season to reignite buying interest... Also losing more than 1.0% were networking, materials, brokerage and biotech, with the latter trading lower after Genentech (DNA 52.09 -2.34) missed Q4 (Dec) earnings by a penny and was subsequently downgraded... Energy showed relative strength much of the day, as crude oil ($45.68/bbl +$0.35) closed at a three-week high amid continued concerns about storm-related disruptions in the North Sea, but still closed slightly lower...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[54anickel]

80. Nothing personal DanaM...but those numbers SUCK!

:evilgrin: :hi:

[DoBotherMe]

81. Yeah ... who's doing the selling?

[54anickel]

82. Dunno, not me - nothin' to sell. Think everyone's a bit on edge these

days. No big Santa rally, the post election rally was fairly weak and short-lived, the Fed's still tightening and earnings are taking an early dive. You'd think that just about anyone that can read would be selling, but it doesn't work that way. They hang on, hoping for just "one more rally" before they sell. That's what keeps the game goin' - hoping there's someone more gulliable to come along and buy what you want to sell. :eyes:

[54anickel]

83. Greenspan: 'The Devil Made Me Do It!'

Heh-heh - loved the title. The conclusion is a bit chilling. :scared:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/north010905.html

One of my favorite Flip Wilson characters was Rev. Leroy, the pastor of the Church of What’s Happening Now. I am not a fan of cross-dressing, so I was not a fan of Wilson’s Geraldine. But Geraldine’s immortal line – "The Devil made me do it!" – was always good for a laugh. Combine Rev. Leroy and Geraldine, and you get Alan Greenspan. I am tempted to call him Rev. Al, but Al Sharpton has a lock on the title.

The Federal Reserve System is surely the economy’s Church of What’s Happening Now. What is happening now is not much. That’s what has been happening for several months.

The adjusted monetary base is the one monetary component that the FED controls directly. When it buys or sells Treasury debt, the statistic goes up or down, respectively. This is high-powered money: the money that serves as the legal reserve for the commercial banking system. These days, the AMB is barely moving. In the most recent reported week, it was moving down.

This is consistent with the FED’s announced policy of raising interest rates, which means short-term rates. The American economy is expanding today, while the money supply’s legal monetary base is flat. The presumption is that interest rates – the price of borrowed money – will rise: more demand, fixed supply.

The other major monetary statistic that I watch closely is MZM: money of zero maturity. I think it is closest to true money: no waiting. It has been flat – peak to peak – for eight months, which is a considerable period of time in the world of the FED.

more...

[ozymandius]

84. Not much to like here.

Esecially this part:

Americans seem to be addicted to easy money, low interest rates, and imported goods. Greenspan has announced higher interest rates, which can be attained only by tighter money. The FED is providing tighter money. But there is no indication that the public is ready to cut back on buying imported goods. There are too many yuan and yen flowing into our capital markets.

Reminds me of this:

You know the dealer, the dealer is a man
With the love grass in his hand
Oh but the pusher is a monster
Good God, he's not a natural man
The dealer for a nickel
Lord, will sell you lots of sweet dreams
Ah, but the pusher ruin your body
Lord, he'll leave your, he'll leave your mind to scream

Steppenwolf, "The Pusher"

[54anickel]

85. Ozy, that is perfect!!! Greenspin "The Pusher"...eom