CBO pegs '06 deficit at $368 billion-Projections omit big-ticket items

[NNN0LHI]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1E09E3B4-0085-4C4E-B0A0-45517AAEA663%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

CBO pegs '06 deficit at $368 billion

Projections omit some expected big-ticket items

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday slightly hiked its fiscal 2005 deficit projection and slashed its long-term deficit outlook. The revised figures, however, don't account for President Bush's upcoming request for additional funds for military operations in the Middle East or plans to overhaul Social Security.

The CBO, which is Congress' nonpartisan budget scorekeeper, forecast the fiscal 2005 federal budget deficit at $368 billion, up from its September forecast of $348 billion. Fiscal 2005 began Oct. 1.

The agency forecast the deficit to decline to $295 billion in fiscal 2006 and to fall further in subsequent years, turning to a surplus in 2012.

CBO noted, however, that the law governing its projections requires its estimates to be based solely on spending and revenue measures already on the books.

The report's estimates "omit a significant amount of spending that will occur this year - and conceivably for some time in the future - for U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for other efforts in the war on terrorism," the CBO said.

more

[Inland]

1. The years are screwed up in the article.

its fy 05 that is pegged at 368 bil, to which we can add teh eighty five Bush just requested in "emergency" spending.

[radfringe]

36. US deficits 'major threat' to world economy, says UN

US deficits 'major threat' to world economy, says UN
26/01/2005 - 07:11:49
http://212.2.162.45/news/story.asp?j=131558158&p=y3y558864&n=131558918

The global economy grew by 4% last year, but massive US trade deficits coupled with a weak dollar overseas threaten economic stability worldwide, the United Nations said.

A generally upbeat report about the world’s finances in 2004 said the economic expansion – the best since 2000 – was part of a cyclical recovery that was reaching its peak. It said that growth is expected to slow to a little over 3% next year, but that change was not the start of a new downturn.

Economists warned yesterday that major imbalances posed a serious threat, singling out the US trade deficit, which was an estimated $650bn (€500.6bn) for the year. That led the dollar to reach a new low against the euro in 2004.

---snip---

The deficits have created a problem – the United States economy is boosted by the weakened dollar because its exports become more attractive and competitive. But economies like Europe and Japan, which need to be strong to help slash the US deficit, may be weakened as their currencies rise in value and make their own goods less competitive.

[NVMojo]

2. White House Forecasts Record $427 Bln Budget Deficit (Update1)

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration predicted the federal budget deficit will reach $427 billion this fiscal year, bigger than the record shortfall of last year and almost $100 billion higher than the gap it anticipated six months ago.

The deficit estimate includes added spending for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, an administration official told a briefing today. The forecast, due in the budget President George W. Bush sends Congress on Feb. 7, was released early to head off pressure to increase spending, another administration aide said. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity.

If today's forecast proves accurate the deficit would be the biggest ever in dollars, topping last year's $412 billion shortfall. The new prediction is also greater than the $331 billion the administration anticipated for fiscal year 2005 last July and the $364 billion it projected in last year's budget.

``The financial affairs of this country are in very bad shape,'' Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said. ``We have red ink as far as you can see, and there's no way to get around that,'' said Reid, a Nevada Democrat.

more....

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=akyMVC8uG8_Y&refer=home

[central scrutinizer]

3. of course, they aren't counting a few

small items, like the cost of the Iraq Occupation. They have tried baking, microwaving, boiling, even stir-frying the books and it still tastes like a shit sandwich.

[da_chimperor]

4. To quote Invader Zim: "Yay!" "No Grr, that's bad." "Awwww . . ."

At least we're still number one in something. :eyes:

[papau]

37. the CBO graph is easy to understand

[indepat]

5. Hell, big-ticket items shouldn't count anyway

[SillyGoose]

6. White House: Deficit Will Hit Record $427B

WASHINGTON - The White House will project that this year's federal deficit will hit $427 billion, a senior administration official said Tuesday, a record partly driven by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The official, among three who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said the estimate was a conservative one that assumed some higher spending than other analysts use. Last February, the White House projected that the 2004 shortfall would hit $521 billion, only to see it come in at $412 billion.

The official said the figure represented progress because it would be smaller than last year's record $412 billion shortfall when compared to the size of the growing U.S. economy. That ratio is a key measure of the deficit's potency.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=2&u=/ap/20050126/ap_on_go_pr_wh/budget_deficits

[Skittles]

7. driven wholly by the complete incompetence of Bush Inc

:puke:

[TwentyFive]

8. They will be selling off national parks...

to corporations for 10 cents on the dollar. These f*cking bastards.

[deadparrot]

9. Good lord.

I can't even fathom that much money.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

10. surpluses as far as the eye can see. Remember that lie?

[Der Blaue Engel]

11. If "liberals" end up with surpluses, and "conservatives" end up with

massive deficits...what are words for? (I think I'll dye my hair blue.)

[wurzel]

15. I don't think this $427B figure includes SS money.

If you add in the money being taken from social Security the deficit is even higher. It is all part of a Republican determination to destroy what we call the "middle class". Which actually never existed. What we had, and so stupidly threw away, was better. We had the most affluent working class this world had ever seen.

[stevebreeze]

21. add $155 billion from SS to come up with the shortfall in the regular

budget. Funny how the tax system with a $155 billion surplus is the one the current misadministration is obsessed with "saving". The tax system that has a $700 billion deficit is in need of permanent tax cuts.

[Festivito]

23. Yes it does. SS is the easiest loaner.

Bushco loves borrowing from SS. Just think. One borrows from a fund that is paid for mostly by poorer people, and specifically not by richer people. A regressive tax.

Then, the money goes to rich well connected friends while poorer people's children die in battle.

SS is just money already sitting in government coffers.

Next, they see if China wants some IOU's to pay for our trade deficit we have with them. China, friends of poppy Bush will gather tribute(i.e. interest) from our children for decades and decades and decades while our children will attempt to pay extra tax to cover SS shortfalls, pay huge interest payments to other countries, and wonder how they ever were born into such a mess.

[wurzel]

39. It is true they "borrow" the money. But

I believe they then decide this money is "tax revenue" so they do not include it in the "deficit". Both parties do this. I think the true deficit is nearer $650B. An incredible amount of debt.

[Festivito]

40. I look to the debt picture, which, I admit, may not be representative.

Looking before, I found the then 5.5T$ debt was split between SS holdings and other debt carrying methods. It seemed reasonable and was under a .gov website -- at least having some credibility. But, I could not find it yesterday. But, I did see it once, long ago.

The deficit is just the budget minus the anticipated income, near as I can figure. When spending sxceeds income we would hope the government would borrow from itself first. Then go to other creditors. You are correct in being concerned. I could not prove they do use SS first.

http://www.almartinraw.com had a wild Pay for View conspiracy of the debt being wildly understated. I cannot say he is correct, I think he is probably a nut, but, I cannot prove it.

Reagan, as I understand it shifted accounts after certain areas of government were funded, so the GAO accounted the money as in the destined departments, but, the money was then transferred to military programs leaving those other departments with unfunded mandates.

Just before Clinton took the office buildings, as Bush left office there were reports of massive shredding machines and truck loads of residue sent to dumps. There are wild reports that there were large amounts of borrowing and that the information was shredded.

Al Martin says that each Bill in Congress has a separate note of borrowing attached, within each bill itself, that allowed the borrowing that would not be tracked by the GAO for public clarity. Is he a nut, I still do not know.

Finally, Bill Clinton noted in a speech that it would take about 15T$ to repay the national debt. The discrepancy between 15T$ and Bill's ending debt of about 5.5T$ remains a bit of a mystery to me.

But, SS being included as income. No, I cannot agree with that.

#EDITED for a little extra clearness. Not clarity, clearness.

[Ian David]

16. Analyst on NPR tonight said it was more like $500 billion

The figures didn't include supplemental spending like the $80 billion extra Bush just asked for to burn in the Iraqi bonfire.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

26. Exactly What I Was Thinking

It will be At Least 10-20% Higher than whatever they're forecasting. My guess is Over $500.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

12. Just when you think this administration couldn't be stupider....

..or more incompetent they prove you wrong.

[oscar111]

13. Almost exactly bush's taxcuts- 360 B plus

end the taxcuts for the rich, and there is no yearly deficit. {almost}.

end all reaganomics, return to truman's ninety % top tax rate, and suddenly a new extra 2. 7 Trillion is added to the fed budget inflow.

enough to end poverty , homelessness, hunger, and get free dr's.

pov.. 3OO billion
hmlss.. 4 billion
hunger. 12 billion
free dr's with wage caps on them
...6OO billion.. includes free pills, hospitals.

total 916 billion., so over 1.7 Trillion left over to fix potholes, hire more cops, firemen, etc.

We had prosperity with Truman. Reaganomics.. wages lower than when it began....., adjusted for inflation.

Reaganomics only sparked mass hunger and mass homelessness.

[llmart]

14. Bush is a colossal failure.....

at everything he touchs and now he's bankrupting our country.

[TheFarseer]

17. I don't think we can put a price tag on freedom

Bwahahahahahhahahaha, had some of you going didn't I??

[lovuian]

18. Elderly to put 'phenomenal' pressure on budget

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/redir.php?jid=5176263c49f3f1a8&cat=c08dd24cec417021

Elderly to put 'phenomenal' pressure on budget
Budget chief sees deficits pushed by Medicare, Medicaid growth

A customer pays for a prescription. By 2015, the Medicare drug entitlement will cost $174 billion.
By Tom Curry
National affairs writer
MSNBC
Updated: 4:55 p.m. ET Jan. 25, 2005WASHINGTON - The growth in mandatory federal spending, driven by the inexorable aging of the American population, means that well over half of all federal spending will go to entitlement programs for the elderly by 2015, Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Holtz-Eakin said Tuesday as he released a report giving his agency’s forecast for the next 10 years.



The growth in Medicare and Medicaid “will place great pressure on the federal budget,” he said. “At historic rates (of growth) there’s phenomenal budget pressure” coming in future years from Medicare and Medicaid. The eventual result, according to Holtz-Eakin, is likely to be "much higher taxes."

Medicare spending will grow by an estimated nine percent per year on average over the next 10 years, according the CBO, while Medicaid, which serves the poor but also pays for many elderly people in nursing homes, will grow by seven percent a year.


more...

I think Iraq War is putting Phenomenal pressure on the Budget too!!!

[xray s]

19. Follow the money

Who's pockets will get all that cash? They are the ones putting the pressure on the budget, not the elderly...

[TheFarseer]

22. Wow, passing the buck to the elderly

damn them! They shouldn't have gotten old, those selfish bastards! If we wouldn't have raided the money they paid in, it would have been there earning interest and we could pay them the benifits they were promised with no problems.

[OneBlueSky]

25. what's putting phenomenol pressure on the budget are . . .

1) Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy, 2) corporate tax avoidance through offshore gimmicks, and 3) the Iraq war, and military spending in general . . . the costs of Medicare pale in comparison . . .

[kskiska]

20. WP: Record '05 Deficit Forecast

War Costs Will Raise Total to $427 Billion

Wednesday, January 26, 2005; Page A01

Additional war spending this year will push the federal deficit to a record $427 billion for fiscal 2005, effectively thwarting President Bush's pledge to begin stanching the flow of government red ink, according to new administration budget forecasts unveiled yesterday.

Administration officials rolled out an $80 billion emergency spending request, mainly for Iraq and Afghanistan, conceding that the extra money would probably send the federal deficit above the record $412 billion recorded in fiscal 2004, which ended Sept. 30. Bush has pledged to cut the budget deficit in half by 2009, a promise the administration says it can keep. But at least for now, the government's fiscal health is worsening.

"We must get serious about putting our financial house in order, beginning with short-term deficit reduction and then long-term control of entitlement spending," said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg (R-N.H.). "If we do nothing, our kids and grandkids will be overwhelmed by the cost of our inaction."

In separate briefings, administration officials detailed the rising cost of war while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its deficit forecast for the coming decade. Taken together, the briefings painted a sobering picture of the government's financial strength, even in the face of a growing economy and rising tax receipts. The figures suggest the Bush administration will continue to have difficulty reining in federal deficits as long as war is draining the government's coffers.

more…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35029-2005Jan25.html

[NuttyFluffers]

24. i can pull numbers outta my ass, can i have this job?

"our deficit is pi over e. it is telling... consumer confidence should be up, everything is under control."

:+ why can't i get paid for this? i can also ask for bonuses and raises regularly without producing good work. any other qualifications needed?

[Tsiyu]

27. White House: Deficit Will Hit Record $427B

By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The White House says its drive to halve federal deficits by 2009 remains on track, though it projects that the cost of wars in Iraq (news - web sites) and Afghanistan (news - web sites) will help drive this year's shortfall to a record $427 billion.


The figure, provided by a senior Bush administration official who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, was among a flood of numbers released Tuesday that underscored a gloomy budget picture.


The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (news - web sites) said projected deficits for the decade ending in 2014 had grown $503 billion worse than it calculated in September, excluding war costs. The deterioration was chiefly due to tax cuts and hurricane aid enacted since then.


The congressional analysts projected that this year's deficit would hit $368 billion, excluding war expenses, and about $400 billion with them.


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/ap/20050126/ap_on_go_co/budget_deficits

[Pachamama]

28. Hear that sound? The sucking sound like a drain?

That's the sound of the Bush Admin sucking our taxpayer $$$ down the drain....

Along with the economy, jobs, our savings & our future....

Get ready folks...its going to get real bad....

[AuntiBush]

32. You forgot...

Freedom. I've forgotten what the ringing of her bells sounds like.

:( :

[Pachamama]

35. Your Right...that will be the last gasping sound when its too late &

Americans wake up and realize its gone....

:cry:

[wellst0nev0ter]

29. Watch Them Pat Themselves On The Back

For keeping the record deficit down to only $426.4 billion next year

[Emboldened Chimp]

30. But...but...he said during the campaign he'd cut it in half.

Did he make another misunderestimation?

[accipiter]

31. Bush is bankrupting our country

And he's giving out our money to allies in the media.

[AuntiBush]

33. As it is...

40% of our economy is owned by foreign investors; if Privatization of SSI goes through, and Medicare heads down the same Neo-Con drain pipes, imagine when SSI heads for the bonds market - freely opened for all.

[aquart]

34. Republicans steal with both hands.

[SoCalDem]

38. Like preparing a family budget...minus the house payment

:crazy: