STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 17 February

[ozymandius]

Thursday February 17, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 337 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 66 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 122 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1180
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 16, 2005

Dow... 10,834.88 -2.44 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,087.43 -1.78 (-0.09%)
S&P 500... 1,210.34 +0.22 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.16% +0.06 (+1.46%)
Gold future... 426.90 -0.40 (-0.09%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[RawMaterials]

1. morning Oz

Great toon, kind-of made me think of the Truman show with Jim carry. only this guy has the power to screw us all.

[ozymandius]

13. good morning RawMaterials and all!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I have been meaning to say for quite some time now that your participation here is tremendously appreciated. Thank you for keeping the ball rolling while the rest of us are busy with other things.

:thumbsup:

Ozy

[RawMaterials]

2. Gold Rises in London as Dollar Slumps Against Euro for 4th Day

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices in London rose as the dollar fell a fourth day against the euro, boosting the metal's appeal as an investment.

The dollar dropped as some traders bet that the interest-rate gap between the U.S. and Europe won't widen enough to extend the currency's 3.8 percent rally this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Senate Banking committee yesterday that the U.S. economy has ``firmed'' and the Fed's target rate is ``fairly low.''

``The euro is going up against the dollar, so gold is rising as well,'' said Wolfgang Wrzesniok, director of precious metals sales at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt. Wrzesniok said gold will trade between $421 and $428 today.

Gold for immediate delivery rose 75.5 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $425.955 an ounce in London at 9:56 a.m. The dollar traded at $1.3057 against the euro, down 0.2 percent, according to the EBS electronic currency dealing system.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=al4qOaM5EMs0&refer=latin_america

[RawMaterials]

3. Two-Year Treasury Yield Near 3-Year High on Greenspan Testimony

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. two-year Treasury yields held near their highest since 2002 on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will use a second day of testimony to Congress to signal that the bank will raise interest rates further.

The yield on the two-year note rose six basis points yesterday after Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee that real interest rates are ``fairly low.'' He testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services at 10 a.m. in Washington.

``There was little from Greenspan to suggest that there's going to be any interruption to the path of rate rises,'' said Oliver Mangan, chief bond economist in Dublin at AIB Capital Markets, Ireland's second-biggest bank.

snip..

`Set the Trend'

The Fed has lifted the overnight target lending rate between banks six times since June 30, to 2.5 percent, bringing the rate up from an almost 46-year low of 1 percent. Policy makers are scheduled to next meet on March 22.

``Greenspan sounded somewhat hawkish,'' said Alessandro Tentori, a fixed-income strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA. The speech will help in ``setting the trend for the bond market for the next month.''

The central bank will raise the rate to 3.75 percent by Dec. 31, the median forecast of 70 economists polled by Bloomberg from Jan. 31 to Feb. 7 showed. The prediction was 3.5 percent in the month earlier survey.

Yields on interest-rate futures contracts show traders increased bets that the Fed will lift its rate at each of the next three policy meetings. The yield on the June Eurodollar futures contract rose 4.5 basis points to 3.38 percent. The contract settles at a three-month lending rate that has averaged 21 basis points above the Fed's target for the past 10 years.

Declines in 10-year notes may be limited on expectations higher interest rates will keep inflation from accelerating. Greenspan yesterday said ``overall inflation has subsided and core inflation has remained low.''

``The Fed is still on a tightening path,'' said Stephen Miller, a fund manager at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers in Sydney, which oversees the equivalent of about $3 billion. ``The markets have interpreted Greenspan's comments as bearish for Treasuries, and that's rightly so.''




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aH_33zH21Tlo&refer=us

[54anickel]

4. Debt Trap Dynamics: Time To Think The Unthinkable

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

The truth of the matter is this: Across three decades, only one economic event has been guaranteed to produce balanced US trade: a recession. When the economy is contracting, people naturally buy less of everything, including imports. Historically, on the four occasions when the line of exports briefly converged with the line of imports in the post-war period, the country was in recession. Each time economic growth was restored, the trade deficits resumed. A more ominous contradiction occurred during the 2001 recession: The trade gap was so enormous it persisted throughout. Again, in 2004, despite a significant fall in the dollar’s trade weighted index, the external account continued to haemorrhage. This suggests that American dependency on foreign producers has advanced to a dangerous new level.

Economists, politicians, and business executives have repeatedly voice unease about the imbalances in the global financial system, which have been reflected in the dollar's steep fall against the euro and other currencies until recently. But most expressed skepticism that the Bush administration would reduce the trade and budget deficits, which have fed those imbalances. The White House has said that it does not view these issues as a major problem because foreigners still view the American economy as an attractive investment, and Mr Greenspan has recanted some of his earlier expressed concern about the dangers of ignoring America’s mounting imbalances.

The scope of the global imbalances and the potential for crisis makes piecemeal, orthodox solutions to the global imbalance problem unworkable and far too slow. The U.S. service-based economy, with more limited economies of scale than those of newly industrializing economies such as China, will not be able to export its way out of the problem. The only demand left for US goods is largely concentrated in industries such as aerospace and high technology. But these are industries where exports pose national security risks, particularly if the exports are directed toward “strategic competitors” such as China, which generally have extremely poor records in terms of safeguarding intellectual property rights.

big snip>

It is true that such actions on the part of the US may well provoke reactions in kind. On the other hand, given the lack of restraint evident in the country’s current foreign policy aspirations, it is hard to envisage that an economic response to the Americans’ abrogation of existing obligations would come without some possibility of a robust military response (or at least the threat of one). The US has already show itself willing to address the problem that it does not make enough of what the rest of the world wants by going to war to monopolise control of the supply and distribution of what the world needs, petroleum. There are other war aims, of course, but control of the global hydrocarbon net is certainly the most important. As market strategist Chris Sanders has noted, “The truth is that the dangerously destabilising idea has rooted in Washington that, in the words of Vice President Cheney, ‘deficits don’t matter (we proved that in the 90s).’ He is right of course in pure power terms; a fuller expression of Cheney’s dictum might well add, ‘as long as we are able to force everyone else to accept them (deficits).’”

Already, it appears clear that the US is driven to rely more on military adventure because the economic house is in disarray and "overstretched". They can't just bludgeon their way economically anymore. They have to use the stick. Any close look at the inauguration speech bears out the reliance on forcing the world to conform to us dictates. Why should this not extend ultimately to existing debt arrangements if the US finds itself facing an Argentina-like predicament? All these outcomes may sound quite improbable at this moment. Certainly, the establishment would brush them aside. But do not dismiss the possibility that dramatic change and epic political reforms lie ahead. As we have said many times before, Washington’s elites will not go down without a fight.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Dont' listen, think

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=40568

Indexes drift upward pulling predictions, expectations and your leg. It is high time to more profoundly question the wisdom being peddled by the Fed, administration and financial press. I strongly recommend that investors listen less and think more.

Let’s start with the basics on which most agree. 2005 will see a deceleration of S&P 500 profit growth. US GDP growth will also likely decelerate. The consensus 2005 estimate from the Economist magazine is for 3.5% GDP growth down from 4.4% in 2004. US interest rates and monetary policy will remain stimulative, but less so, as they meander toward neutrality. As this goes to press, broad and narrow US money supply growth is above, and interest rates are below, long term historic norms. This can only continue if we double dip. Huge trade and budget deficits, near or above 2004 record levels, are a virtual certainty. Yes, you listened to Greenspan assert that weakening dollars will suddenly reverse a 15-year secular trend in trade imbalances. He mentioned this as another weak job report was issued, but didn’t bother to base his claim on any particular fundamentals. That presents an opportunity to implement the new credo, “don’t listen, think.”

If you follow this simple rule, your rose-colored goggles will fog over as your temperature rises, and you will be driven toward their removal. No sooner than you slip off those worn out lenses, will you find the following puzzling:

snip>

Chronic bulls simultaneously celebrating the ability of declining dollars to overpower trade deficits and the reassurance offered by rising dollars amid forecasts that call for the dollar to end the year at or above where it began. We are told variously that declining greenbacks are helpful, trade rebalancing and likely to reverse direction. Sounds great, but doesn’t stand up well to the application of reason. Negative balances of trade are built into our macro economy and our place in the global economy. These imbalances will not substantively change unless the structure of the US economy or the global economy does. Our earnings are insufficient, our savings non-existent and our demand insatiable. Our place is to borrow and spend. Correction of the imbalances would require this to change. Few even acknowledge that possibility, yet they endlessly forecast either painless correction or the sustainability of the present arrangement. Both offer reassurance and buoy sagging spirits and prices. Sadly, they are little more than howling gusts of hot air Prozac. If you listen, you will feel better. If you think you will feel worse.

US equities are not cheap and neither is the dollar. Thankfully, this is not very widely understood. Thus, the safety offered by the mob. To stay happily in the game, one need only ignore reality. Look no further than Greenspan for an impeccable role model.

more...

[Maeve]

6. Initial Claims fall more than expected

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans claiming initial jobless benefits fell unexpectedly by 2,000 last week to the lowest level in more than four years as the U.S. labor market continued to strengthen, a government report showed Thursday.

First-time claims for state unemployment insurance aid dropped for the third consecutive time, to 302,000, in the week ended Feb. 12 from 304,000 in the previous week, the Labor Department said. It said there were no special factors to account for the drop in claims.

Last week's decline marks the lowest level since October 2000, before the economy tipped into recession.

Wall Street economists had expected a rise in claims to 315,000. The surprise fall is likely to boost analyst expectations for February's broader payroll report, which surveys employers at the same time of the month as last week's jobless claims report.


http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/17/news/economy/jobless_claims.reut/index.htm

[54anickel]

7. Hi Maeve, dang! I missed my chance to holler "It's MAEVE DAY"

Actually, it's been a wild week and I even forgot what day it was. Not sure how long I'll be "hanging around" here today, waiting for a phone call to determine the day's events again. :hi:

[Maeve]

19. I can understand busy schedules

With the book and the extra performances I've got coming up (March is an Irish teller's big month), I'm running as hard as I can to stay in one place.

Something like this economy....

[54anickel]

32. Heh, the running in place of this economy is simply an illusion of the

great, magnificent wizard! It's actually sliding into the dark abyss.

[54anickel]

35. U.S. Treasury Notes Remain Lower After Jobless Claims Decline

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aEiy3xsbhr.k&refer=home

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes remained lower after a government report showed weekly jobless claims unexpectedly declined, a sign of strength in the labor market.

snip>

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance declined last week to 302,000, the lowest since Oct. 28, 2000, from 304,000 the week before, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Claims were forecast to rise to 315,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Treasuries were falling before the report on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will use a second day of testimony to Congress to again signal that interest rates will continue to rise.

``There was little from Greenspan to suggest that there's going to be any interruption to the path of rate rises,'' said Oliver Mangan, chief bond economist in Dublin at AIB Capital Markets, Ireland's second-biggest bank.

Ten-year notes fell yesterday after Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee that real interest rates are still ``fairly low'' and a drop in yields on longer-maturity debt since the Fed started rates is a ``conundrum.'' Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Greenspan was attempting to ``talk down'' bond prices.

more...

[54anickel]

8. Greenspan Undermines Bush's Social Security Plan

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aLm76TyE5mnQ

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony yesterday before the Senate Banking Committee undermined virtually all of the Bush administration's arguments for diverting some Social Security tax payments to fund private retirement accounts.

If the hole left in Social Security finances by the diversion were filled by added government borrowing, as proposed by President George W. Bush, creating the private accounts wouldn't add to national saving -- and for Greenspan, that is the overriding long-term retirement issue facing the nation.

In other words, in the chairman's view, Bush is touring the country to garner support for a plan that addresses the wrong issue. Instead of private accounts financed by borrowing, the president should be drumming up political support for a far more ambitious effort to reduce future federal budget deficits, which would increase national saving.

snip>

Such an increase in borrowing could have an undesirable impact on interest rates because no one knows whether financial markets have discounted the existence of the government's long- term unfunded liability related to Social Security benefit promises, Greenspan said.

If markets have discounted that liability -- and Bush administration officials have argued that markets have done exactly that -- ``you could go fully to a private system without any response in interest rates,'' the Fed chairman said. ``But we don't know that. And if we were to go forward in a large way and we were wrong, it would be creating more difficulties than I would imagine.''

Greenspan stressed that he likes the idea of private accounts -- if they were funded with money obtained by increasing taxes or cutting federal spending. In that case, they would represent a form of what he called ``forced saving", which would reduce consumption.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Greenspan Stumped by Low Long Rates; Rates Rise

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_baum&sid=aEzV7aNHf30c

snip>

Four years ago, Alan Greenspan gave his stamp of approval to George W. Bush's proposal to cut taxes, still one of the most controversial initiatives of his presidency, based on ink spilled by the two political parties.

Today, he did the president another favor by supporting private Social Security accounts.

For Greenspan the issue boils down to the need to increase national savings, which means ``fully funding'' either the existing pay-as-you-go system, which is difficult because of the demographics, or a system of forced private savings accounts, which ``has in it the seeds of developing full funding by its very nature,'' he said. ``And therefore, I've always supported moves to full funding in the context of a private account.''

National Savings

While the pay-as-you-go system worked well for decades, the combination of an aging population, slowing population growth and increased life expectancy has created an inexorable problem, Greenspan said.

``In the purest form, pay-as-you-go creates no savings; it merely transfers from taxpayers in any particular period to beneficiaries,'' he said.

If the goal is to increase net national savings, as Greenspan said, how can the Fed chief support anything, such as the borrowing to finance the transition to private retirement accounts, that increases the deficit, Senator Paul Sarbanes, Democrat from Maryland, wanted to know.

``This is one of the very rare cases in which you can increase the deficit but not decrease the national savings,'' Greenspan said.


lots more friggin one sentence paragraphs....

[54anickel]

10. Greenspan Suggests Rates May Increase Without Pause

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/17/business/17greenspan.html?

WASHINGTON, Feb. 16 - Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, strongly suggested on Wednesday that the central bank would keep raising short-term interest rates without any pause in the months ahead.

Indeed, in a rare acknowledgment of his own puzzlement at market behavior, Mr. Greenspan, testifying on Wednesday before Congress, suggested that money had become even more plentiful after six rate increases since last June.

Though Mr. Greenspan made no reference to the central bank's policy of raising rates at a "measured" pace, he told members of the Senate Banking Committee that the federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks remained "fairly low."

But the Fed chairman admitted his own surprise that long-term interest rates were lower today than they were last year, calling the trend a "conundrum" that defied all of the easy explanations.

The implication was that Fed officials, far from being ready to pause in their rate increases, might feel even more need to keep going.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan (In case anyone has the

stomach to read his drivel in it's entirety.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2005/february/testimony.htm

big snip>

Another critical long-run economic challenge facing the United States is the need to ensure that our workforce is equipped with the requisite skills to compete effectively in an environment of rapid technological progress and global competition. Technological advance is continually altering the shape, nature, and complexity of our economic processes. But technology and, more recently, competition from abroad have grown to a point at which demand for the least-skilled workers in the United States and other developed countries is diminishing, placing downward pressure on their wages. These workers will need to acquire the skills required to compete effectively for the new jobs that our economy will create.

At the risk of some oversimplification, if the skill composition of our workforce meshed fully with the needs of our increasingly complex capital stock, wage-skill differentials would be stable, and percentage changes in wage rates would be the same for all job grades. But for the past twenty years, the supply of skilled, particularly highly skilled, workers has failed to keep up with a persistent rise in the demand for such skills. Conversely, the demand for lesser-skilled workers has declined, especially in response to growing international competition. The failure of our society to enhance the skills of a significant segment of our workforce has left a disproportionate share with lesser skills. The effect, of course, is to widen the wage gap between the skilled and the lesser skilled.

In a democratic society, such a stark bifurcation of wealth and income trends among large segments of the population can fuel resentment and political polarization. These social developments can lead to political clashes and misguided economic policies that work to the detriment of the economy and society as a whole. As I have noted on previous occasions, strengthening elementary and secondary schooling in the United States--especially in the core disciplines of math, science, and written and verbal communications--is one crucial element in avoiding such outcomes. We need to reduce the relative excess of lesser-skilled workers and enhance the number of skilled workers by expediting the acquisition of skills by all students, both through formal education and on-the-job training. :eyes:

Although the long-run challenges confronting the U.S. economy are significant, I fully anticipate that they will ultimately be met and resolved. In recent decades our nation has demonstrated remarkable resilience and flexibility when tested by events, and we have every reason to be confident that it will weather future challenges as well. For our part, the Federal Reserve will pursue its statutory objectives of price stability and maximum sustainable employment--the latter of which we have learned can best be achieved in the long run by maintaining price stability. This is the surest contribution that the Federal Reserve can make in fostering the economic prosperity and well-being of our nation and its people.

[RawMaterials]

11. Foreign Buying of Treasuries Fell in December

Japan and many hedge funds were sellers of Treasury securities in December, and China slowed its purchases significantly, according to new Treasury data. Over all, purchases by foreigners of Treasury securities plunged 75 percent, to $8.4 billion, from November.

That could have been bad for the Treasury market. But it was not, as the monthly flow of foreign funds into the United States continued to produce market results counter to expectations. For investors in the Treasury market, this has been positive because longer-term interest rates have remained lower than might have been predicted.

Indeed, the price of the 10-year note rose in December, and the yield dropped to 4.22 percent, from 4.35 percent at the end of November.

snip..

This year the dollar has rebounded, rising 4.1 percent against the euro and 1.7 percent against the yen. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year note has fallen to 4.10 percent from 4.22 percent. So if the government reports that net foreign funds have slowed further in January and February, the link between the foreign funds flow and the Treasury and foreign exchange markets may be even more difficult to explain.

The reason that the flow of foreign money has been watched so closely is the fear that if it slows it would not be enough to cover the current-account deficit, a fear that was heightened by comments in November by Mr. Greenspan. If there was such a slowdown, interest rates would rise and the dollar would fall, analysts say.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/16/business/worldbusiness/16flow.html?

[54anickel]

12. US warned of east-west oil bidding war

http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20050216_11223_29949.html

The head of ChevronTexaco on Tuesday called on the US government to build growing competition for Middle East oil with Asian consumers into a new national energy policy, or risk harming future economic growth.

Dave O'Reilly, chairman and chief executive of the second largest US oil and gas group, pointed to the closer ties between consumers such as China and India and Middle East producers at a time when cheap-to-find oil was becoming more scarce.

"We're seeing the beginnings of a bidding war for Middle Eastern oil between east and west," said Mr O'Reilly in a keynote address to a Houston energy conference. " the beginning of alliances between Asian entities and Middle East entities for the long term," he said. "It's very important that our government recognise that."

Mr O'Reilly said greater access to energy had become "a strategic imperative" for Asia, which had become a far larger importer of oil and gas than north America, where US imports were countered by domestic production and output from Canada and Mexico.

more...

[54anickel]

14. Chinese demand set to push Opec to limit

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/77f2d8ee-8059-11d9-bd50-00000e2511c8.html

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries signalled a significant tightening of oil markets towards the end of this year, warning on Wednesday it would have to pump close to its maximum capacity next winter to meet rising demand from China against the backdrop of slowing Russian production.

The cartel said it would have to supply at least 30.1m barrels a day in the fourth quarter of the year to balance the market, an increase of 630,000 b/d from its previous estimate in January and 1.1m b/d up from the December figure. The International Energy Agency forecasts Opec's capacity will be 31.5m b/d by mid-2005.

Opec pumped at capacity last autumn as it tried to catch up with a big increase in demand. But the sharp production increase reduced spare capacity to a 30-year low, helping push oil prices to a nominal record of more than $55 a barrel last October.

The increasing reliance on Opec will make the market more vulnerable to political shocks in the Middle East, analysts said. Oil prices briefly surged more than $1 on Wednesday amid conflicting reports of an explosion in Iran's Bushehr province, where Tehran is building a nuclear reactor. “The cushion to confront an unexpected shock will be very limited,” said Antonio Merino, chief economist of Repsol YPF.

more...

[54anickel]

15. Report: China's Consumer Society Booming

Report Says China's Consumer Society Is in Full Bloom, Largely Surpassing United States

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050217/us_china_consumption_2.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- For decades, while China was closed to business from the United States, American companies lusted over the boundless merchandise market that such a big country was certain to offer one day. Now that day has come: China has surpassed the United States in consumption of every basic food, energy and industrial commodity except oil.

The Chinese have overtaken the Americans in refrigerators, watch 1 1/2 times as many television sets and use 1-2/3 as many cell phones. Only in automobiles does China still lag, with barely one-tenth the number of motor vehicles the United States has on its roads.

A report released Wednesday by the environmental advocate Earth Policy Institute said, however, that per capita consumption in China remains far below that of the United States.

China's 1.3 billion people ate 64 million tons of meat in 2004, for instance, compared with 38 million tons consumed by the 297 million people in the United States. That's an annual intake of 108 pounds of meat -- mainly pork, with half the world's pigs in China -- for every Chinese and 279 pounds of steak, hot dogs and fried chicken for every American.

more...

[ozymandius]

16. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

USDOLLAR PROPS & PITFALLS

The USDollar has enjoyed a substantial and generous bounce since the new year began. Traders call it an “oversold” rally. As measured by the inadequate DXY index, the 80 level was indeed defended. (Its inadequacy as an index derives from the 1960 decade trade weighting, where the euro is given 4x the weight of the Japanese yen, and the Chinese yuan is given zero weight.) When the world had no further doubt that four more years of US debt, currency, and economic mismanagement was in store, complete with huge and unaddressed twin deficits, it sold off the USDollar with a running start before and after the presidential election. From early October to the end of December of 2004, the DXY fell below 87 support, then below critical 85 support. When the USDollar broke down below DXY 81 in the last week of the old year, gold was $12 below its recent high. Gold was $456 in the first week of December, when the DXY came off the 81 low. Three weeks later, gold was only at $444 when the DXY actually broke below 81.

-cut-

In the view of this analyst, the USDollar without question will falter, weaken, then stagger to the point coincident with a global war over natural resources in the coming few years. That asset grab is underway, much like the great homestead rush in the 19th century prairies, from which was born the nicknames Oklahoma Sooners and Kansas Jayhawks. The USA continues its pre-occupation with paper and war, evermore printed paper to sustain a gutted economy struggling through the charred remains of the great tech/telecom bust, and evermore war to secure the necessary resources which we as a nation must either import or seize, surely not denied. During these early skirmishes in the resource wars, the ebb & flow of the USDollar’s downward spiral make for fascinating clashes between paper & valid, between old & new, good & evil, between once powerful & nascent forceful. In the balance is the fate of the US Economy, long deprived of real wealth production despite the incessant propaganda spewed by both USGovt agencies and Federal Reserve pronouncements. It has sadly morphed into two chambers, first the distressed real economy where things are made (only remnants left) and serviced (under siege to India), second the financial sector where inflation is their coveted lifeblood if not addicted elixir.

-cut-

THE USDOLLAR PROPS:

Few are the props which buoy the buck these days, but they are significant. The Fed is not finished with its tightening cycle. The short-term rate target in the USA sits 0.50% above that of Europe’s, an incentive to own US$-based bonds. The Fed Funds target is sure to go higher, uncertain to be matched by the Euro Central Bank. In an era where futures contracts are intertwined among USTBonds, EuroDollars, EuroBonds, Yield Spreads, the euro currency, and gold, interest rates at times can matter more than capital flows on the tail end of international trade. Rate spreads between the large bond markets at times dominate over chronically crippled fundamentals (rescued by intervention). Look for the Fed, led by Greenspan, to go too far. He always goes too far, hitting the upper guard rail in 2000 and the lower guard rail in 2004. His fame (or infamy) owes to his role as monetary drug dealer far more than to competent banking policymaker. The Fed loosened from 1996 to 2000 even after his warnings of irrational exuberance were ignored. The Fed tightened right through the stock bustfive years ago. It is highly likely to tighten here and now to excess, since its myopia in reading the economy is well established. An accident on the upside for rates would help the USDollar in fleeting fashion.

-cut-

THE USDOLLAR PITFALLS:

Many are the pitfalls that plague the USDollar, some massive with others noteworthy. The leading danger is for a US Economic slowdown to be revealed. It could happen from natural imbalanced forces like the absent manufacturing base, from minimal business investment, from inadequate job creation, from debt burden suffocation, and most deadly, from reversal of the many bond bubbles (Treasurys, mortgages, housing). An economic slowdown, even a clear stall, would interrupt Fed hikes and might bring an end at, say 3.0% or so. A slowdown would trash the attractiveness of the USDollar. The Federal Reserve is hardly invulnerable to a grand misread of inherent economic strength. The bureaucratic reports on the economy might have convinced the Fed of far more strength than exists. Could the Fed be a victim of its own statistical spew? A “neutral” Fed could be manifested at a much lower rate than typically seen in past cycles. It admittedly cannot recognize bubbles of its own making, cannot comprehend the nature of technology nor its effect on productivity and labor. The Fed has blessed asset inflation as wealth generation in the most queer of central bank assessments in modern history. An error by the Fed would result in a rapid cascade downward for the USDollar, as investment prospects would dim.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

20. Good morning Ozy. Geez, I love Jim Wille -

The clownbuck is a crippled relic of an abused I.O.U. to be sure. It is the instrument of the grandest confidence game since the South Sea travesty. Alan Greenspan is the modern day John Law. Money is printed. Debt is issued. Foreigners buy it up with a certain degree of obligation. Then we downgrade it. We run quite the racket.

Best explanation of US monetary policy I've read in a long time. B-)

[54anickel]

21. Eww, I missed that bit of news. Greg Mankiw is stepping down? Heh,

adios, good riddance, don't let the door hit ya in the @$$ on the way out.

[ozymandius]

25. for those who may have forgotten who Mankiw is...

This is the goomer who said that the American economy could be helped through job outsourcing to other countries.

Such words seem to be intended to make me feel better about being unemployed those wicked few moths ago.

[RawMaterials]

17. Jobless Claims Fall, Import Prices Up

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans claiming initial jobless benefits fell unexpectedly last week in a show of strength for the U.S. labor market, while an energy-driven import price rise offered mixed signals on inflation pressures.

First-time claims for state unemployment insurance aid dropped 2,000 to 302,000 in the week ended Feb. 12, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said on Thursday. It was the third straight weekly decline and defied Wall Street expectations for a rise to 315,000.

snip..

ENERGY BOOSTS IMPORT COSTS

A separate report showed the price of goods imported to the United States rose a higher-than-expected 0.9 percent in January, driven by higher petroleum costs.

Wall Street analysts had expected a 0.7 percent rise in import prices after declines in November and December.

The Labor Department said petroleum import prices surged 4.6 percent in January after falling 16.8 percent over the prior two months. Over the past year, petroleum import costs have risen 26.9 percent.






http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20050217/bs_nm/economy_thursday_dc

well i have a meeting to go to ill be out for a bit.

[54anickel]

18. It's all too weird, and I am all too scared (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty021605.html

- Every actor in the Global Cartel Of Central Banks That Is Destroying The World By Destroying The Money, or what we professionals in the economics business simply call GCOCBTIDTWBDTM, is, I am sure, pumping money like it is going out of style to try and keep asset prices inflated, because the wealth of the whole world is now totally dependent on stock prices that go up and bond prices that also go up. Not to mention the retirement plans of everybody. So, getting out the calculator, we add 1 = today, plus 2 = tomorrow, and we get the answer 3, which makes no sense to me and I am wondering what in the hell I was thinking about and does this mean that I have Alzheimer's or something? Instantly, a buzz goes through the classroom, and we all realize the error I have made. But it will be a cold day in hell when I admit to any of these snot rag kids that I made a mistake, so I quickly add, "The answer is three, because today is also somebody else's retirement, so that makes, in all, three separate demographic groups that would be devastated with a general asset deflation, and that is why the answer is three. Write down three in your notes. Three. The answer is, as I have said, three." With that I turn on my heel and strut away, triumphant again!

Total Fed Credit actually contracted by $7.6 billion last week, which, combined with the action of Total Fed Credit over the last week (down), in the last month (also down and also in the context of the action of Total Fed Credit over the entire 18-year term of the Greenspan Fed (up and up, and especially so, horrifyingly so, insanely so, since 1998), then this is unusual, I think. And this all happening at the time after the G-7 met, and of course decided some secret things, and then they all went away without saying anything, which is spooky. And it is spooky enough that a fear originating in the instinctual, autonomic regions of my lower brainstem kicks online-- bink! -- and I am watching myself empty a machinegun at various bushes that rustle, and maybe get off a few rounds at neighbors who "say" that they were only standing out in the yard having a cigarette, but who were probably probing my perimeter defenses, because we both know that the abysmal money-and-credit-creating actions of the Federal Reserve means that there will come a time of desperation, fear and anger. And when that dark, dismal day comes, my so-called "innocent neighbors" WILL be out probing my defenses and getting their butts shot off in the process, and then they will turn around and blame ME, like I am the one who did something wrong here!

But the money supply is still expanding (seasonally adjusted) or is contracting (not seasonally adjusted), as it lags Total Fed Credit, or not. But The Mogambo, who oddly enough seems to take a perverse pleasure in being wrong about everything, says that the slowdown will start showing up in the Ms pretty soon. And when the money supply starts contracting, coupled with the monetary inflation (that the Federal Reserve is using to try to get price inflation blazing, as hard as that is to conceive), things WILL get plenty ugly, and The Mogambo taking a few lousy potshots at you in the dark will be the LEAST of your problems.

snip>

- Some good news (such as it is) for people who save money, is that the interest rate on the 6-month Certificate of Deposit, currently paying 2.97%, is steadily going up, and will soon crack the three percent barrier! Whoopee! Or in Mogambo-ese, "Whoop-freaking-ee!" Inflation is running at more than three percent, and after the bite of taxes levied on the paltry gain, you would need roughly double that piddly 2.97% interest rate to let the saver break even in terms of buying power! The Greenspan Fed is pounding interest rates down and down in their desperation, and thus proving that they are incompetent morons who have no idea what in the hell they are doing! This is proof! If they were NOT incompetent boobs, why are they pounding your grandmother in the head?

- Fernando Gonzalez on FSO has noticed a divergence between two indexes that has important technical aspects. "In the past, it has been quite a consistent observation that whenever the primary (S&P500) and speculative (Naz) markets are out of sync like this, the dominant current direction is likely to be unsustainable. In this case, this market is more likely to encounter resistance of the upward trend rather than strength to continue the recent advances". Translation; stocks should be heading down.

more...

[MARALE]

22. Translate Foreign Revenue Carefully

http://www.thestreet.com/options/futuresshocktsc/10207704.html

...

As an old saying goes, when you're a hammer, all problems look like nails. Each of us has a different skill set and predisposition we bring to this business. My preferred vantage point is to look at things from 30,000 feet as an economist, not from 3 feet as a financial analyst. So when I first read this question, I thought, "Here's an opportunity to learn a thing or two by poking around a few income statements just like an anthropologist observing the local customs."

But then I got to thinking about what I had to find. It is not so much the percentage of foreign revenue, but the source of that revenue. For example, an American firm such as Kellogg (K:NYSE - news - research), which has done considerable business in Latin America over the decades, has earned Mexican pesos or Brazilian reals. Neither currency has appreciated against the dollar in the long run, despite some recent strength in the Brazilian real.

Prior to hedging gains or losses, the earnings in either of these two currencies would not translate into more dollars if repatriated, but rather fewer. More important, the local subsidiary's dollar costs would increase in local currency, and we can glean nothing from a financial statement about the operating risks, such as taxes, regulations and the purchasing power of the local citizenry. At the end of this exercise, the key number for valuing the firm's operations in that locality, the currency and risk-adjusted expected net operating profit, cannot be deduced with any accuracy. A repetition of this exercise across a group of countries, many of which have currencies moving in different directions from both each other and from the dollar, would be similarly inconclusive.

...

This chart is interesting I think:

[MARALE]

23. Wal-Mart Beats by a Penny

...

Revenue rose 10.4% to $82.2 billion, while same-store sales rose 1.5%. Wal-Mart expects a same-store sales gain of 2% to 4% in February.

The consensus forecast was for 74 cents a share on revenue of $82.8 billion, according to Thomson First Call. The company had forecast 73 cents to 75 cents a share for the quarter ended Jan. 31, 2005.

Income from continuing operations at the Wal-Mart group of stores rose 9.3%, while profit at its Sam's Club unit increased 3.5%. Income at international operations rose 13.5% in the quarter.

For the year, net income topped $19 billion for the first time in the company's history.

In a pre-recorded call, Wal-Mart's president and chief executive said the company should have been more aggressive in its merchandising plan during the quarter

...

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/stocks/retail/10209367.html

[Maeve]

24. 10:16 downdate

Dow 10,790.24 -44.64 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,078.32 -9.11 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,205.79 -4.55 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 41.95 +0.37 (+0.89%)
NYSE Volume 253,614,000
Nasdaq Volume 364,791,000

[MARALE]

26. I wonder...

Where these numbers would be if we didn't have the good job claims numbers? The numbers were too high anyway, I did not understand why they were up as far as they were.

[MARALE]

27. Leading Economic Indicators Fall in Jan.

http://story.news.ask.com//article/20050217/D88ABGEO0.html

...
The Conference Board, a private research group, said Thursday that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined to 115.6 last month after rising a revised 0.3 percent to 115.9 in December and 0.3 percent to 115.5 in November. Before the November and December increases, the index had been down for five consecutive months, though the declines were modest.

Analysts had expected a drop of 0.2 percent in January.

The index is designed to predict economic activity over the next three to six months.

Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist, said in a statement accompanying the report that the economic picture "is positive, but more spotty than robust."
...

[54anickel]

29. Germany and Japan—shrinking giants

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3666048

Exports have traditionally rescued the mighty Japanese and German economies from downturns. But new figures show both countries’ economies shrank in the last quarter, despite strong world trade. What has gone wrong?

THE world’s second and third biggest economies both got a little smaller last quarter. Japan’s gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 0.5% in the final quarter of 2004, according to figures released on Wednesday February 16th. The numbers from Germany the day before were grimmer still. Its economy shrank at an annualised rate of 0.9% in the same period. Both economies started 2004 well, but failed to live up to the expectations they fleetingly raised.

Japan’s figures bemuse as well as disappoint. As the yen value of Japan’s output fluctuates, the statisticians must sort out how much is down to changes in prices rather than quantities. For much of last year, prices seemed to be falling sharply and quantities rising. But the cabinet office introduced a new way of counting GDP in November, which showed less deflation, but less output as well. Since November, however, the cabinet office has reworked its recalculations several times.

On Wednesday, it said it now reckoned that the economy contracted by 0.8% in the second quarter and 1.1% in the third, meaning that Japan spent three-quarters of last year in recession. Richard Jerram, an economist at Macquarie Bank, laments that estimates of Japan’s GDP are “such a rapidly moving target” it is hard to make much sense of them. Japan’s official statistics, it seems, offer lies, damned lies and revised lies.

Well, now that sounds familiar! So are we now in a global race to see who can tell the biggest tales?

more...

[54anickel]

30. Heh, heh - thought this was kind of cute...Need to have sound to get

the real effect.

http://masteroni.student.utwente.nl/hu.html

[54anickel]

31. U.S. contractors in Iraq allege abuses (Your tax dollars hard at work!)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6947745/

There are new allegations that heavily armed private security contractors in Iraq are brutalizing Iraqi civilians. In an exclusive interview, four former security contractors told NBC News that they watched as innocent Iraqi civilians were fired upon, and one crushed by a truck. The contractors worked for an American company paid by U.S. taxpayers. The Army is looking into the allegations.

The four men are all retired military veterans: Capt. Bill Craun, Army Rangers; Sgt. Jim Errante, military police; Cpl. Ernest Colling, U.S. Army; and Will Hough, U.S. Marines. All went to Iraq months ago as private security contractors.

"I went there for the money," says Hough.

"I'm a patriot," says Craun.

"You can't turn off being a soldier," says Colling.

snip>

"What we saw, I know the American population wouldn't stand for," says Craun.

:grr:

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

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This week is our first quarter 2005 fund drive. Democratic
Underground is a completely independent website. We depend almost entirely
on donations from our members to cover our costs. Thank you so much for
your support.

[54anickel]

34. Dollar Watch - quite the roller coaster ride so far today

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 83.52 Change -0.15 (-0.18%)

Settle 83.67 Settle Time 00:35

Open 83.64 Previous Close 83.67

High 83.84 Low 83.45


The March Dollar was lower overnight and is breaking out below the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8356. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8297 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .8437 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends this week's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.742. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rebound off last week's low, a test of the reaction high crossing at 131.320 is possible later this month. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.102 would signal that the short covering rally has come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

snip>

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8074. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the short covering rebound off last week's low, a test of the reaction high crossing at .8206 is possible later this month. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8054 would signal that the short covering rally off last week's low has likely come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline, which led to a close below the 10-day moving average crossing at .9524. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways prices are possible. Multiple closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at .9609 are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.



USD Remains Sluggish
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

snip>

The dollar was slightly weaker overnight against the majors, with the exception of the yen, sliding to 1.8926 versus the sterling, and 1.3075 against the euro in a quiet European session. The greenback yesterday failed to sustain its initial gains despite Fed Chairman Greenspan’s upbeat congressional testimony. Traders will continue to digest comments from Greenspan, as he testifies before the House today, in which he is expected to echo a similar message. Also on the agenda today will be the release of weekly jobless claims, January leading indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed Index.

USDJPY Edges Higher

The Bank of Japan, as expected, held monetary policy unchanged, deciding to leave its current deposits target at 30-35 trillion yen. The BoJ reiterated it would provide funds regardless of target if risks to the stability of the financial system emerge. The policy board decision was unanimous. Afterward, BoJ Governor Fukui stated that Japan’s economy was still going through a soft patch, yet the mechanism for recovery was intact and is expected to move to a sustainable growth path. He said CPI would likely continue falling year on year. Fukui observed that financial markets, and currencies have been relatively stable after the G7 meeting. Concerning monetary policy, he said the current level of money supply growth was not as a hindrance to economic growth, and there was no intention of changing the amount of monthly JGB purchases. Fukui said the current account target could be achieved for a while in run-up to fiscal year-yen, and that the c/a deposits target was sustainable despite fluctuating fund demand. However, Fukui could not say whether the c/a deposits falling beneath target would be considered tightening.

In the BoJ’s February monthly report, the Bank held its assessment of the economy unchanged. The report said the economy was still in a recovery trend despite some weakness in output. It said the BoJ needed to watch both high-tech demand and oil prices. CPI is expected to decline further, largely as a result of cheaper utility prices. Lastly, the report reiterated expectations for capex to improve along with corporate profits.

Dollar/yen edged up slightly higher overnight. Resistance is seen at 105.60, followed by 105.80 and 106. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 106.30, backed by 106.70 and 107. Meanwhile, support begins at 105, backed by 104.60 and 104.20. Additional floors are eyed at 104, followed by 103.80 and 103.50.

more...

Dollar Eases to Two-Week Low Against Euro
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=507730

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar slipped to a two-week low against the euro on Thursday as an uneventful speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan encouraged traders to unwind bets on further dollar gains.

Greenspan provided no surprises in his Congressional testimony on Wednesday as he reiterated the U.S. economy was expanding at a healthy pace and that the Fed funds rate remained low in real terms despite recent hikes.

snip>

"The market was long of dollars and we have seen some unwinding of positions after Greenspan failed to reveal any surprises yesterday," said Tania Kostos, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

snip>

The dollar initially climbed on Wednesday after Greenspan said U.S. interest rates remained "fairly low" despite six consecutive rate rises by the Federal Reserve since June. But its gains proved fleeting.

"The dollar is caught between two opposing camps, structural concerns and cyclical economic strength," said Lee Ferridge, senior proprietary trader at Rabobank.

more...

[54anickel]

36. Dollar Drops; Traders Bet Rates Insufficient to Extend Rally

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a8bOx138FDqM&refer=japan

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro as some traders bet that expectations for a widening interest-rate gap between the U.S. and Europe are insufficient to extend the currency's 3.8 percent rally since the end of last year.

``Sentiment is shifting negative against the dollar,'' said Carsten Fritsch, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``The market is again focusing on flows into the U.S. and we're seeing the inflows are insufficient.''

Foreign demand for U.S. financial assets waned in December, a Treasury Department report showed two days ago, even as the Fed lifted its target interest rate to 2.25 percent, higher than the European Central Bank's 2 percent benchmark rate. The Fed has since raised its target to 2.5 percent. The ECB's key rate remains at 2 percent, the lowest in six decades.

snip>

`Dollar Negative'

``The Fed will continue to hike rates but the deficits will probably be far more of an issue through 2005, which will be dollar negative,'' said Henry Wilkes, senior vice president of currency sales at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in London. ``We could see it head back to $1.35 or even $1.40.''

more...

[54anickel]

37. 11:53 numbers and a catch up on the blather of the day

Dow 10,792.86 -42.02 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,074.88 -12.55 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,204.86 -5.48 (-0.45%)
10-yr Bond 4.175% +0.02
30-yr Bond 4.541% +0.02
NYSE Volume 651,852,000
Nasdaq Volume 845,482,000

11:30AM : Little changed since the last update but a negative bias remains firmly intact... Decliners on the NYSE hold a nearly 2 to 1 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 9 to 5 margin... The ratio of down to up volumes also reflects a similarly bearish tone, as down volumes hold a convincing lead on both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has so far held support above 2068 while the S&P 500 continues to trade near yesterday's low (1205.06)...
At 12:00 ET, the Feb Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (consensus 17.5) will be releasedNYSE Adv/Dec 1071/1988, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1012/1852

11:00AM : Major indices bounce off their lows of the session but continue to trade in negative territory... Widespread profit taking combined with the failure to clear resistance levels and relative weakness in large cap names like ORCL (-1.4%), AAPL (-1.1%), QCOM (-2.1%) and EBAY (-1.7%) have contributed to the overall bearish bias... Separately, Jan Leading Indicators fell 0.3% (consensus -0.2%), after an upwardly revised 0.3% Dec gain, as five of the ten components showed declines led by the ISM deliveries component and consumer expectations...NYSE Adv/Dec 972/2000, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 910/1914

10:30AM : Equities now on the defensive, turning the bulk of sector leadership negative, as the indices fail to hold support at key technical levels... Technology remains weak across the board while transportation and utility have shown little follow through... Financial, retail and health care have extended yesterday's losses while telecom services and consumer staples have also fallen... Steel, however, has extended yesterday's strong performance while biotech and energy cling to modest gains and homebuilding shrugs off higher bond yields... NYSE Adv/Dec 1360/1486, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1135/1574

10:00AM : Market continues to trade with a tinge of caution in the wake of strong weekly jobless claims... Initial claims for unemployment fell 2K to 302K (consensus 315K), the lowest level since October 2000... But while the data suggests that layoffs are at low levels, the report is not likely to have much of an impact on nonfarm payroll forecasts, as the data fail to show the degree to which hiring is on the rise... It is widely believed that companies are taking a more reserved approach to hiring, eyeing acquisitions and capital expenditures for growth rather than increasing the work force...NYSE Adv/Dec 1222/1183, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1384/1021

9:40AM : Stocks open with little fanfare, despite the majority of notable earnings reports beating expectations, as investors wait for the start of Greenspan's second day of testimony... Better than expected earnings have come from S&P components WMT, TGT, NXTL, BHI, GENZ on the heels of HPQ's solid Q1 report... But disappointing guidance from NXTL, RSH, GENZ and CCE have somewhat offset respectable outlooks from WMT, HPQ, MDT and TRW...

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Greenspan's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, which is widely expected to mirror yesterday's statement to a Senate, will begin at the top of the hour... Jan Leading Indicators (consensus -0.2%) will be also be out at 10:00 ET...

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Stage remains set for a rather lackluster open as the futures market still trades close to fair value... Meanwhile, Medtronic (MDT) has been upgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC following their strong Q3 report... Other companies in focus following some notable ratings changes include upgrades on SLE, MAT, CNA, XLNX and XMSR while Banc of America has reiterated a Neutral rating on HPQ but raised its price target to $23.50 (from $22.00)

[54anickel]

38. U.S. stocks lose ground on mixed data, rate jitters

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050217/1897ade7a2f348f0bfdc6b2bc4dbe034_1.html

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks lost ground Thursday as mixed data and concern about the prospect of higher interest rates combined with unease about the political situation in the Middle East to weigh on sentiment.

snip>

"Greenspan jawboning interest rates higher is part of it," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan, Beck & Co, in reference to the Federal Reserve chairman's remarks on Wednesday about the puzzling drop in long-term rates even though the central bank has been in a period of rate tightening.

snip>

He added that there is also some nervousness about developments in the Middle East with the U.S. recalling its ambassador from Syria and President Bush commenting on the nuclear threat posed by Iran.

President Bush said Thursday morning that the United States wants to use diplomacy to address Iran's nuclear development but he made clear that he understand's Israel's concerns about the threat posed by the country's atomic program.

"We will support Israel if their security is threatened," he said during a press conference at which he announced Amb. John Negroponte as the first U.S. national intelligence director.

snip>

For Mark Bryant, senior vice-president at Brean Murray, the move may be more technical in nature.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Presidential commission weighs national sales tax

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1244079


http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/10916861.htm

snip>

The two-tier tax plan was one of several ideas floated at the commission's first meeting Wednesday, but panel members stressed that it's far too early to reach any decisions. The nine-member commission has until July 31 to deliver recommendations to the White House.


Any tax-law changes as sweeping as those under review would affect every economic interest group in America, shift trillions of dollars within the economy and be the object of intense lobbying in Washington before Congress works its will.


Republicans in Congress also are weighing possible tax-law changes as complements to their goal of overhauling Social Security, but they have no firm plan yet and no timetable. It's unclear how much they'll coordinate with President Bush's tax commission.


Tax-panel members said they would examine a broad range of options, including scrapping the income tax and replacing it with a national sales tax or some other type of tax on consumption. Grafting a sales tax onto the income tax would create a hybrid system. Consumers would pay federal taxes when they bought something and when they filed their annual income-tax returns.

more...

[54anickel]

40. 2:03 and more of the same - red everywhere

Dow 10,781.45 -53.43 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,070.83 -16.60 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,203.55 -6.79 (-0.56%)
10-yr Bond 4.181% +0.02
30-yr Bond 4.558% +0.04
NYSE Volume 1,003,567,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,242,655,000

1:30PM : Selling remains the name of the game as weakness is widespread across most areas... Technology continues to lead the list of laggards, with pressure seen in disk drive (-1.2%), software (-1.0%) networking (-1.0%) hardware (-1.0%), Internet (-0.8%), and semiconductor (-0.7%)... Showing modest strength, however, has been aluminum (+2.1%), railroads (+1.9%) and leisure products (+1.9%)... The latter has surged following an upgrade on Mattel (MAT 21.28 +0.53) at Lehman and reaffirmed FY05 EPS guidance from Brunswick (BC 44.93 +0.99)...
Meanwhile, volume at the Nasdaq, which has recently surpassed 1.0 bln shares, remain above yesterday's pace but below average while volume at the NYSE also remain higher than yesterday but are currently running above average...NYSE Adv/Dec 1375/1841, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1197/1817

1:00PM : More of the same as the major indices continue to drift sideways... Homebuilders, however, have found renewed buying interest over the last half hour after Greenspan commented that he sees no nationwide housing price bubble... His remarks have helped the housing sector index (HGX +0.8%) rally back toward morning highs... Notable movers surpassing earlier highs include RYL (+2.1%), LEN (+1.9%), BZH (+1.5%) and TOL (+1.4%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1280/1898, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1142/1839

12:30PM : Sellers remain in control of the action as buyers find few upside catalysts to lift the broader averages... Investors, however, have recently received an encouraging read on manufacturing activity with the release of the Philadelphia Fed Index... The regional survey rebounded 10.7 points higher to 23.9 in February (consensus 17.5) after a 12.2 point plunge to 13.2 in January... The key component of new orders rose to 11.7, but remains well below the 20+ levels of late 2004, while shipments rebounded to a strong 23.8 (from 15.9) as the regional index shows renewed strength...NYSE Adv/Dec 1229/1903, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1117/1841

12:00PM : Market continues to sport broad-based losses and an overall bearish bias midday following mixed economic data, guidance and earnings reports... As expected, Fed Chairman's remarks have more or less mirrored yesterday's statement to the Senate, reiterating that inflation-adjusted interest rates remain "fairly low" and that a drop in yields on longer-maturity bonds since rate hikes began in June is a "conundrum," reflecting the increased possibility that further Fed tightening is necessary...

Jan Leading Indicators fell for the first time in three months, declining 0.3% (consensus -0.2%), versus a revised 0.2% increase in December... Weekly jobless claims fell 2K to 302K (consensus 315K), the lowest level since October 2000, but while layoffs remain at low levels, hiring activity has become a much more important employment indicator... Better than expected quarterly results have come from the likes of WMT, TGT, HPQ and BHI, but disappointing guidance from NXTL, RSH, GENZ and CCE have somewhat offset any potential momentum stemming from strong earnings...

Meanwhile, widespread profit taking, technical breakdowns in the indices and relative weakness in large cap names have kept virtually every sector under pressure... Technology continues to show broad-based losses while financial, health care, transportation, utility, retail and consumer staples remain influential leaders to the downside... Respectable gains in diversified metals and aluminum have limited losses in the materials sector while biotech, due to positive clinical data from BIIB (+1.6%) and ELN (+1.1%), and homebuilding, despite higher bond yields, have been the only notable sectors showing relative strength...

Treasuries, which sold off following the unexpected decline in initial claims, have recovered some ground but remain under modest pressure as traders digest ongoing testimony from Greenspan... The 10-year note is off 5 ticks to yield 4.17%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1149/1954, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1050/1853

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1319 (38%) 1128 (35%)
Declines 1916 (56%) 1907 (60%)
Unchanged 160 (4%) 137 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 357 (37%) 325 (27%)
Down Vol* 584 (61%) 857 (72%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (1%) 7 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 276 89
New Lo's 15 23


and the buck continues to achieve fresh lows

Last trade 83.38 Change -0.29 (-0.35%)

Settle 83.67 Settle Time 00:35

Open 83.64 Previous Close 83.67

High 83.84 Low 83.36

[54anickel]

41. US Treasuries trim losses after Philly Fed

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=7664687

CHICAGO, Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were lower on Thursday but trimmed losses after traders concluded that the Philadelphia Fed's survey of factory activity was not as strong as initially thought.

The index of U.S. Mid-Atlantic factories rose to 23.9 in February, reversing most of January's dip to 13.2 and was well above Wall Street forecasts at a median 17.0.

A knee-jerk response to sell bonds was tempered by the components of the Philadelphia index, especially a decline in the employment index to 12.3, its lowest since November 2003.

"The breakdown was a lot friendlier to bonds. A large drop in prices paid and a large drop in the employment index was helpful, so people who started to sell on the 'print' stopped when they saw the breakdown," said Rick Klingman, head of Treasury trading at ABN Amro.

snip>

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan ended his testimony on the U.S. economy to the House Financial Services Committee after being quizzed mostly about Social Security reform. His testimony had little new impact on Treasuries.

Awww, all that jaw-boning for naught :evilgrin:

[MARALE]

42. Bush Economic Report Pushes Free Trade

http://story.news.ask.com//article/20050217/D88AEO700.html

...

"I believe that Americans benefit from open markets and free and fair trade and I am working to open up markets around the world and make sure that the playing field is level for our workers, farmers, manufacturers and other job creators," Bush said in his message to Congress.

The administration devoted an entire chapter to extolling the benefits of free trade and seeking to answer critics who contend the country's soaring trade deficits, which last year hit a record of $617.7 billion, were costing millions of lost jobs.

However, the report did not repeat an argument made last year that critics viewed as endorsing the idea that the "outsourcing" of American jobs to lower wage countries represented a benefit to the U.S. economy.

This year's report argued that increased trade can affect the composition of jobs in the United States but not the overall total of jobs. It argued for increased retraining assistance for workers in industries that can't compete with overseas factories.

[wasp in a wig]

56. a level playing field?

For workers ? Jesus Christ. Unless he means lowering our labor standards to those of China.. which isn't going to happen, unless it becomes possible to get by in America on 35 cents an hour.

Oh, and if we can't compete then we just have to be 'retrained' ? To do what exactly ? What isn't being or going to be outsourced ? If you have zero job security it doesn't make much sense to keep getting trained for jobs that are going overseas or don't exist.

Years ago I remember being in school, being told that computers were the way of the future and we should all get degrees in things like IT and software development. And now these jobs either gone or going away.

I guess the people who invested in educating themselves for 'the new economy' don't count. Only the big $$ boardroom investors do. But you still have to pay back those student loans people!!

[54anickel]

57. Heh, I'm pretty much done retraining - getting too old for it to be

worthwhile. Don't get me wrong, I believe in and practice life-long learning. It's just that at my age it's pretty hard to even get considered for a job, gotta weigh the ability to recoup that schooling cost now days.

I trained for social services right out of high school, then they started making big cuts in that area, so I retrained for accounting. Then there was a sudden glut of accounting graduates in the market that it became saturated, so I moved into IT - a career where the retraining never seemed to end (gotta keep up on the latest and greatest though the pace of innovation has slowed down a bit the last few years).

So, I've done what a lot of folks in my situation do. Hang out that "anything for a buck" shingle and offer my services in one of the many areas I have knowledge and experience in. That could range anywhere from IT consulting and installations to shoveling horse shit down on the ranch. Not exactly the steady income I've been accustomed to, but it keeps food on the table and a roof over my head. Now, if I could only afford some health insurance. :eyes:

[MARALE]

43. Oh look, Pixie dust is starting!

[54anickel]

46. Looks like they've run outta Pixies for the grinder

2:50 numbers

Dow 10,772.44 -62.44 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,067.09 -20.34 (-0.97%)
S&P 500 1,202.48 -7.86 (-0.65%)
10-yr Bond 4.181% +0.02
30-yr Bond 4.562% +0.04
NYSE Volume 1,148,845,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,444,801,000

[54anickel]

44. SCO In Danger of NASDAQ Delisting

http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3484091

The SCO Group (Quote, Chart) announced Thursday that it faces possible delisting from the NASDAQ stock exchange for failing to file an annual report with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) on time.

Company officials will request a hearing on the delisting notice before the Feb. 25 deadline. Meanwhile, SCO will work with auditor KPMG to file its so-called Form 10-K and resolve accounting questions regarding its 2000 employee stock purchase plan.

"This one is really more of an anomaly than anything," SCO spokesman Blake Stowell said. "The NASDAQ has certain rules where if you don't file your year-end 10-K and other filings within the prescribed time frame then they're obligated . . . to issue a letter of notification that there's a possibility of being delisted."

SCO is embroiled in a lengthy breach of contract and copyright infringement lawsuit with IBM (Quote, Chart) over the alleged use of Unix System IV source code in the Linux kernel.

more...

[54anickel]

45. Will there be public capitulation?

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=40567

snip>

A couple items of interest about the above numbers:

(1) As of 12/31/04, versus respective year-2000 closing highs, the DJIA was down 8.0%, the S&P 500 was down 20.7%, and the NASDAQ 100 was down 65.5%. Therefore, on a net basis, not a great deal has changed during 2005's first six weeks.

(2) Also of significance in my view is that in January, the Dow celebrated its fifth anniversary of a value below its 2000 closing high. Next month, the S&P and NDX will celebrate their fifth anniversaries of the same travail -- unless they experience rallies of 26.2% and 204.1%, respectively. (They won't!) Five years without taking out former highs is not a bad indication of the "secular" nature of the current episode.

But How Will We Know?

snip>

Perhaps the transition of the last couple decades has changed the public's historical behavior towards the stock market. Perhaps there will be no ultimate capitulation. If this is the case, "it is different this time."

I've highlighted the "it is different..." for a reason that I'm certain is already obvious to many readers. These are the words that have been used so very many times to try to convince people that what has been virtually inviolable in the past will not repeat again. These are bad things, of course, but things that have had a devilishly consistent way of repeating anyway, despite the admonition. Therefore, "it is different this time" just may be the five most dangerous consecutive words in the investment lexicon!

Arguing in the other direction is that as of 9/30/04, the public continued to have direct equity investments totaling $6.133 trillion. In addition, the public held another $3.243 trillion in mutual funds, most of which was invested in stocks. Therefore, if nothing else, the ingredients for a bear-market capitulation at some point in time are in place. As always, time will tell.

more...

[54anickel]

47. How US suffers when the dollar falls

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0217/p17s01-cogn.html

When the euro began circulating at the start of 2002, Kenneth Rogoff figured it would take 50 years for the new 12-nation currency to rival the importance of the United States dollar in world financial markets. Today, the former chief economist of the International

Monetary Fund says parity could come in five to 10 years.
For the first time in many decades, perhaps since before World War I, the dollar has a serious competitor.

"Euros are coming more to the front," says Ulrich Ramm, chief economist of Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "It's a real alternative ... to the dollar."

If Washington is intent on spreading its influence in the world, the dollar's fall makes it harder - and more expensive - to expand its military and political reach.

more...

[MARALE]

48. For the Wally world watchers:

Judge Reverses Wal-Mart Zoning Decision

...
Raleigh County Circuit Judge Robert A. Burnside Jr. ruled the public never got a chance to review a completed rezoning application or adequately prepare a response to the Wal-Mart project. He ruled Wednesday that the zoning reclassification earlier approved by Fayetteville's Planning Commission should be reversed and the matter sent back to the town.

Burnside said the zoning application by developer Paramount Development Corp. of South Carolina was incomplete in answering whether the property had historic significance. Paramount wants to build a shopping center on the property.

"If the public had had the opportunity to study the archaeological report in advance," Burnside wrote, "it could have taken such steps as its representatives deemed necessary to respond to it."

Officials for Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) did not immediately return a telephone call seeking comment Thursday.
...

[54anickel]

49. IPOs in 2005 raise record $8.4 billion

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2005-02-16-ipo-usat_x.htm

The IPO class of 2005 so far has done what some thought was impossible: upstage the class of 2000.

As of Wednesday, initial public offerings have raised $8.4 billion, an all-time high for this early in a year, Thomson Financial says. It even tops the $7.6 billion raised by IPOs during the same period of 2000. That's quite an accomplishment considering it was this time five years ago when the dot-com IPO boom was humming.

snip>

•Dominance of mature companies. Rather than fledgling companies run by twentysomethings, these IPOs are big companies hailing from a variety of mostly mature industries such as real estate and heavy industry. The IPO boom is "not so much technology but really a cross section of industrial America," Renaissance Capital's Linda Killian says.

snip>

•Rise of spinoffs and divestitures. Many of the year's biggest IPOs are spinoffs from larger firms looking to shed assets not vital to their operations or by private investors looking to cash in, Killian says.

more...

When I read this the first thing that came to my mind was Dresser Industries that Hellaburnin dumped onto some venture capital group. The scuttlebutt going around is that they want to get out from under and do an IPO. The VC group that bought it really knew nothing about the industry or the company and have really made "a mess of things" according to many that work there. Of course, their opinions may be bias. From the outside looking in it does seem like a mess though. :shrug:

[54anickel]

50. As high-tech exports drop, US warned it could lose competitive edge

COULD lose? Alas, once again they blame the working class for a lack of skills...:eyes:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=8&u=/afp/20050217/bs_afp/usasiaeuropescience_050217062336

WASHINGTON, United States (AFP) - The US share of worldwide high-tech exports has dropped from 31 percent to 18 percent over the past 20 years, in what could foreshadow the loss of the country's leading position in science and technology, a blue ribbon expert panel warned.

The Task Force on the Future of American Innovation, created by leading US companies and scientific and business associations, sounded the alarm Wednesday with a report indicating that the United States was gradually slipping as the world leader in scientific and technological research.

"US employers are being forced to look overseas, as they face shortages of qualified technically trained talent in the US," said Craig Barrett, chief executive officer of Intel Corporation, a member of the task force.

"If this trend continues, new technologies, and the constellation of support industries surrounding them, will increasingly develop overseas, not here," he added.

The signs of trouble outlined in the report range from a slowdown in the growth of technical research to stagnant government funding for fundamental sciences.

more...

[54anickel]

51. The debt crisis that has taught lenders nothing

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d004acae-8088-11d9-bd50-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

One interesting revelation is the full extent of disquiet within the IMF about feeding Argentina's borrowing habit. There is a marked contrast between the face of monolithic certainty that the IMF presented to the world and the intense private debate within.

But in truth the IMF was only a bit-part player that fed out a futile $15bn lifeline as Argentina sank into a mire of more than $100bn of sovereign debt. The crisis was not primarily made in Washington. Blustein finds the real culprits in Buenos Aires and New York: the Argentines who peddled a falsely glowing vision of their country's economic renewal and the herd-like investors who believed the story or simply tracked the index of emerging debt. A bizarre quirk of index-tracking means that emerging market investors increase their exposure to troubled governments that issue more debt, likened by one expert to an AA programme that rewards heavy drinkers by giving them more booze.

As the book's title implies, the capital markets gave Argentina a lot of rope with which to hang itself. (A little more sympathy is due for the thousands of relatively unsophisticated Italian and German retail investors who bought Argentine bonds because yields were high without understanding that with higher reward comes higher risk.)

Of particular note is the conflict of interest on Wall Street. In a similar fashion to the hypocrisy during the dotcom bubble, the same banks that profited from conducting Argentina's doomed debt operations were consistently too optimistic about the country's ability to turn itself round.

more...

[54anickel]

52. Circuit City Socked: Unsolicited Takeover Bid, Store Closings, Plane Crash

http://informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=60401737


It's been a terrible week for Circuit City: first it became the target of a $3.25 billion hostile takeover bid, then it announced it was closing 19 stores, and then--the crowning blow--a company plane crashed in Colorado killing eight persons.

On Tuesday, Boston-based Highfields Capital Management issued the unsolicited acquisition bid. Highfields, already the owner of some 6.8 percent of Circuit City shares, said it wants to take the retailer private. The retailer has been locked in a losing battle with Best Buy, which has been gaining in market share over Circuit City in recent years.

Highfields has a reputation for tough confrontational negotiations, and Circuit City is likely to respond quickly. The retailer said it would study the offer.

On Wednesday, Circuit City said it will close 19 of its 636 stores, as well as some of its support facilities. The firm's chairman and chief executive officer, W. Alan McCollough, said in a statement: "We have identified 19 Superstores located in trade areas that we believe can no longer support a Circuit City Superstore, leaving the locations with no reasonable expectation of positive cash flow."

more...

How very sad for the families of those onboard the plane.

[RawMaterials]

53. Final numbers and blather to come

Dow 10754.26 -80.62 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 2061.34 -26.09 (-1.25%)
S&P 500 1200.75 -9.59 (-0.79%)

10-Yr Bond 4.185% +0.27

NYSE Volume 1,578,716,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,931,503,000


Close Dow -80.62 at 10754.26, S&P -9.59 at 1200.75, Nasdaq -26.09 at 2061.34: The indices opened on a downbeat note following a mixed batch of economic data, earnings reports and guidance, but closed even lower in the wake of Greenspan's reaffirmation of further rate hikes... As expected, the Fed Chairman's remarks to the House Financial Services Committee essentially replicated yesterday's testimony to the Senate, which reiterated that a drop in yields on longer-maturity bonds since rate hikes began in June 2004 is a "conundrum"...

Prior to comments that reflected the increased possibility of further Fed tightening, however, was a weaker than expected read on Jan Leading Indicators, which fell for the first time in three months, declining 0.3% (consensus -0.2%) versus a revised 0.2% increase in December... Weekly jobless claims fell 2K to 302K (consensus 315K), the lowest level in more than 4 years, but even though layoffs remain at low levels, hiring activity remains a more significant employment indicator... Meanwhile, market internals held a bearish bias from start to finish as virtually every sector closed lower...

Retail (-0.7%) was a focal point all day after both Wal-Mart (WMT 52.70 +0.10) and rival Target (TGT 50.09 +1.02) beat analysts' Q4 expectations by a penny, with WMT issuing in line Q2 guidance but succumbing to pressure amid reports regarding child labor violations... Radio Shack (RSH 30.00 -3.37) missed Q4 earnings and issued downside Q1 guidance... Other notable earnings reports came from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 20.91 -0.15), which beat Q1 forecasts and guided Q2 revenues higher, while Nextel (NXTL 28.61 -0.57), Genzyme (GENZ 56.74 -1.16) and Baker Hughes (BHI 46.12 -1.23) all beat analysts' expectations but issued disappointing outlooks...

Widespread consolidation also prompted weakness in several large technology names (i.e. ORCL, AAPL, INTC, CSCO and AMAT) as every sub-sector from semiconductor to software closed lower... Financial, health care, transportation, utility, consumer staples and even materials, despite showing modest gains much of the day as copper prices hit 16-year highs, were influential leaders to the downside... Profit taking in oil stocks, after yesterday's strong performance, coupled with a 1.6% decline in crude oil prices ($47.54/bbl -$0.79), sent the energy sector 1.1% lower...

Homebuilding (+0.4%), however, found enough buying interest to shrug off higher bond yields after Greenspan commented that there was no nationwide housing price bubble... Despite selling off in the wake an unexpected decline in jobless claims early on, bonds remained relatively range-bound into the close as Greenspan's testimony, unlike yesterday's "fairly low" rate remarks that sent treasuries tumbling, answered more questions concerning Social Security concerns than monetary policy...The benchmark 10-year note closed down 8 ticks to yield 4.18%... DJTA -0.5, DJUA -0.1, DOT -1.8, Nasdaq 100 -1.5, Russell 2000 -1.1, SOX -1.3, S&P Midcap 400 -0.8, XOI -0.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1103/2245, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1006/2123

3:30PM : Indices continue to languish near their worst levels of the day with only a half hour to go... With regards to tomorrow, notable economic data will garner much of the market's attention, as the Labor Dept. will release Jan PPI (consensus +0.3%) and core PPI (consensus +0.2%) figures at 8:30 ET... At 9:45 ET, investors will get a preliminary read on Feb Consumer Sentiment (consensus 95.5) after digesting quarterly results from CPB and PCG, the only S&P constituents out with earnings before the bell...NYSE Adv/Dec 1144/2167, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1031/2063

3:00PM : A renewed wave of selling heading into the last hour of trading pushes the indices to their lowest levels of the session... Consolidation of gains has been realized across the board, with losses in excess of 1.5% seen in every tech subsector while energy, airline and telecom services have posted losses of more than 1.0%... Leading the list of laggards on the S&P have been RSH (-9.8%), Q (-5.8%), JDSU (-5.7%), PMCS (-4.8%) and DAL (-4.8%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1277/1982, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1115/1976

2:30PM : Market continues to run in place at lower levels as buyers remain a reluctant bunch... On the Dow, only five components have recently traded in positive territory... Alcoa (AA 31.39 +0.79) has been the standout (+2.9%) after Elkem, a metals producer 46.6% owned by Alcoa, posted 18% growth in Q4 profits... General Motors (GM 37.48 +0.30) has also found modest buying interest after its GMAC division priced about $2.2 bln in asset-backed securities... Pacing he way to the downside have been INTC (-1.5%), SBC (-1.3%), HON (-1.1%), MO (-1.1%) and VZ (-1.1%)...

Even Wal-Mart (WMT 52.63 -0.07), despite beating Q4 estimate and issuing in line Q2 guidance, has struggled to catch a bid after reports suggested the retailer may be probed for breaching labor laws...NYSE Adv/Dec 1254/1989, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1094/1971

2:00PM : Stocks, as well as treasuries, show little vigor, having moved little in the past hour... Unlike yesterday, when yields surged following Greenspan's testimony about rates being too low, bonds have barely budged since jobless claims data checked in better than expected early this morning, as the benchmark 10-year note is off 6 ticks to yield 4.17%...

Contributing to the subdued action on the part of traders has been the fact that Greenspan provided few insights about monetary policy as most of today's Q&A from the House Financial Services Committee centered more on Social Security concerns than further Fed tightening...NYSE Adv/Dec 1327/1906, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1134/1896


Have a great night Marketers, I was really busy today sorry i couldn't post more. :hi:

[lyonn]

54. tks Raw

[54anickel]

55. Bush Economic Report Pushes Free Trade (Oh good Lord! - did he

learn nothing from the ridicule Mankiw took? Perhaps he believes folks will swallow it if it comes directly from him, after all he does have that open channel with the Lord and all. :eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050217/bush_economy_3.html

Bush's Economic Report Argues the Benefits of Free and Fair Trade Despite Criticisms


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Contending that Americans benefit from free trade, President Bush said Thursday he would keep pursuing liberalization agreements around the world, even as critics say his policies have resulted in record trade deficits and millions of lost jobs.

Bush's pledge came in his annual economic report to Congress, a 438-page document which argued that his economic policies, ranging from making his first-term tax cuts permanent to overhauling Social Security, will lead to greater prosperity.

"I believe that Americans benefit from open markets and free and fair trade and I am working to open up markets around the world and make sure that the playing field is level for our workers, farmers, manufacturers and other job creators," Bush said in his message to Congress.

The administration devoted an entire chapter to extolling the benefits of free trade and seeking to answer critics who contend the country's soaring trade deficits, which last year hit a record of $617.7 billion, were costing millions of lost jobs.

more...

[ausiedownunderground]

58. Its funny how "neutral" is slipping from 4.5% to 3.5% in the MSM

Not long ago we heard that the "Fed" wanted to bring interest rates in the US back up to "neutral". That figure was trumpeted by the media and economic analysts as 4.5%. Now when you look around the MSM and Wall street gurus are trumpeting 3.5% as neutral. They are of course correct. In modern "debt" swamped America 4.5% interest rates would just about "kill off" the american consumer and with it the American economy. Oh, by the way, the unofficial "boycott" on American made products is still in full swing here in Oz. In fact its starting to become quite "trendy" to avoid US goods. It makes people here "feel good" as if their doing their bit to quietly put a "spanner" in "The Bush Gangs" spokes!