STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 15 March

[ozymandius]

Tuesday March 15, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 311 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 92 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 148 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1206
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 14, 2005

Dow... 10,804.51 +30.15 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq... 2,051.04 +9.44 (+0.46%)
S&P 500... 1,206.83 +6.75 (+0.56%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.52% -0.02 (-0.42%)
Gold future... 441.60 -5.20 (-1.18%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.81 Change -0.16 (-0.20%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH45311_2005-03-15_11-32-27_L15700470

Europe gold edges up, looking top-heavy

excerpt:

Financial markets have turned their attention to U.S. capital flow data due out at 1400 GMT, which will show how well the country is financing its massive current account deficit.

Net capital inflows to U.S. assets eased to $61.3 billion in December, barely covering the trade deficit, from a revised $89.3 billion in November.

Analysts were looking for a number in excess of $60 billion to avoid further weakness in the dollar.

A weaker dollar makes gold a better buy for holders of other currencies.

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=1110883878-30410f08-21858

Bundesbank´s Weber says ECB eye on liquidity, further dollar falls possible

The European Central Bank is keeping a close eye for any negative impact on price stability that might result from excess liquidity in the euro zone, Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber said

Speaking at the Bundesbank's annual results news conference, he also said the German central bank set aside higher risk provisions to cover possible further dollar declines

He said the "risk scenario" is that "we cannot rule out a further depreciation of the dollar." Turning to the ECB's interest rate policy, he said this is anchored on analysis of both economic and monetary developments

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=1110884233-30410f08-22114

China technically ready on yuan move, politics the only hurdle - IMF

SHANGHAI (AFX) - China is "technically" ready to adjust its currency and now is the time to move to a more flexible exchange rate mechanism but politics remains a hurdle, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said

"It's the right moment to do it," IMF managing director Rodrigo Rato said at a press briefing in Shanghai after meeting Asian financial executives and institutions

"We are advising the Chinese authorities to take advantage of the current economic circumstances of great resilience and confidence in the Chinese economy to move toward a more flexible system." The yuan has been fixed in a narrow trading band of around 8.28 to the dollar for more than a decade

It is a level that trading partners say is grossly undervalued and results in cheap Chinese exports flooding the US, Japan and the EU. China insists this is not the case though it has said it wants to make its exchange rate regime more flexible

"We believe that a move towards a more flexible exchange rate system is in the interest of China," Rato said, adding that the authorities were "technically ready" to make a move

...more...

Today's Reports:

Mar 15 8:30 AM
NY Empire State Index Mar
report -
briefing.com 17.0
market 19.9
last report 19.19
revised -

Mar 15 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Feb
report -
briefing.com 0.8%
market 0.6%
last report -0.3%
revised -

Mar 15 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Feb
report -
briefing.com 0.9%
market 0.8%
last report 0.6%
revised -

Mar 15 10:00 AM
Business Inventories Jan
report -
briefing.com 1.0%
market 0.9%
last report 0.2%
revised -

Your 'toon reminds me of an old joke, Ozy. "Balls!", cried the Queen, "If I had them, I'd be King!"

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

15. Dollar weakens after weaker-than-expected retail data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.3640177778-833151186&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar weakened slightly against the euro and yen after news that U.S. retail sales increased at a slower-than-expected pace in February. U.S. retail sales increased 0.5 percent in February, contrasting with an average estimate of economists polled by MarketWatch for a 0.7 percent advance. The euro traded at $1.3395, up 0.2 percent and contrasting with $1.3388 before the data. The dollar stood at 104.29 yen, off 0.7 percent and contrasting with 104.35 yen beforehand.

[UpInArms]

2. American Express CEO bonus nearly doubles (to $6 Million!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.3216377662-833148846&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- American Express (ASP) CEO Ken Chenault's bonus rose to $6 million in 2004, up from $3.5 million in 2003, according to the company's proxy statement filed on Tuesday. For the full year, the company's revenue rose 13 percent to $29 billion and its net income rose 15 percent to $3.4 billion. Shares of American Express rose 31 cents per share to $53.85 on Monday.

Wow! That's a bunch of late fees!

[UpInArms]

3. Oil Prices Surge Above $55 a Barrel Mark

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/03/15/ap1884295.html

Crude oil futures prices rose above $55 a barrel Tuesday, as resistance surfaced to Saudi Arabia's call for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production quotas.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 21 cents to $55.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. Heating oil prices rose less than a cent to $1.5370 a gallon.

Brent crude rose 23 cents to $53.89 on London's International Petroleum Exchange.

The record close set on Nymex last October was $55.17, though prices would have to surpass $90 per barrel to meet the inflation-adjusted peak set in 1980.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. Tech bust still hurting California's economy

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/local/11139446.htm

(I think this may be a registration site - if so, try www.bugmenot.com)

Silicon Valley remains the biggest drag on California's wobbly economic recovery, a group of Southern California economists concluded in a report released today.

The Bay Area continues to suffer one of the worst regional downturns in the nation's history, having lost 400,000 -- or 13 percent -- of the jobs in its seven-county area since 2001, according to the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast. If there was a ray of hope in the report, it's that forecasters believe the region hit bottom last year and began its climb back up.

``The Bay Area, center of the tech boom and following tech bust, has been the primary drag on the overall economy,'' the report said. ``The good news for the Bay Area is that this slowdown is only temporary.''

While things are looking brighter elsewhere in the state, the report suggests they won't be for long.

...more...

[Tempest]

37. Real Estate Reliance May Hurt California

California's hot real estate market is destined to cool down — and when it does, the state's economic recovery could be over, according to a report to be issued today.

The study, written by the UCLA Anderson Forecast, makes plain just how much the real estate boom is holding up the California economy.

Half of the private-sector jobs created in California in the last two years are connected in some way to real estate. Meanwhile, property values in the last four years have swelled $1.7 trillion, the equivalent of about 35% of the total personal income in the state since 2001.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ15mar15,1,2263820.story

[RawMaterials]

5. Demand may rise until oil hits $80

Crude-oil prices may have to rise to $80 a barrel or higher before U.S. demand for gasoline, diesel and other fuels begins to slow, said Arjun Murti, an analyst with Goldman Sachs.

U.S. motorists show few signs of curtailing their driving habits even with retail gasoline above $2 a gallon across much of the country, Murti said in an address yesterday at the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association annual meeting in San Francisco.

"Our view is that oil prices have to keep rising until the economy is impacted," said Murti, 35, a New York-based managing director at Goldman Sachs and co-leader of the company's energy group.

"At $80 oil, we might expect some negative reaction on the demand side."

Oil prices soared above $50 a barrel the past year as economic growth stoked demand in the U.S., China and India

snip..

A growing U.S. economy is spurring shipping and travel, and stricter environmental rules are limiting increases in refining capacity.

The nation's gasoline consumption has risen every year since 1991 and is expected to average a record 9.22 million barrels a day this year, according to the Energy Department.

Oil is still cheaper than it was in the early 1980s after adjusting for inflation, Murti said.

Gasoline makes up about 50 percent of U.S. refined-product consumption, he said.

"While supply will continue to grow, oil prices will have to go higher, gasoline prices will need to go higher, to really knock off demand," Murti said.

"We think we're going to need changes in consumer behavior, and it's going to take higher prices to do that. It's going to take a lot to change consumer behavior."








http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002207773_oilrunup15.html

[UpInArms]

8. ah, the art of understatement

"At $80 oil, we might expect some negative reaction on the demand side."

What? Idiots might park their hummers! Oh No! What's the world coming to?!?

[RawMaterials]

10. In the long run didn't the oil crises of the 70's

help alternative fuels? maybe 5-6 dollar a gallon gas can get people to buy smaller cars that are safer for everyone and the environment.

[ozymandius]

21. I remember when the 70's oil crisis created a market

for gas/ethanol stations. They were rare but I certainly do remember them in the Atlanta area.

[KayLaw]

12. I wonder

What does it cost to fill a Hummer? I also wonder about those gigantic RVs people drive all over the country.

[UpInArms]

13. here's an article to make your hair stand on end

CAR BUYERS UNFAZED BY FUEL PRICES
Interest in gas-guzzling Hummer high; fuel-efficient Prius scarce in Las Vegas

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Mar-10-Wed-2004/business/23397440.html

Wednesday, March 10, 2004

excerpt:

"The customer's ability to afford this type of vehicle usually means that same customer isn't concerned about the price of gas," Towbin said.

Sales of Hummer's H2 model, he estimated, have ranged from 40 to 60 per month. He said near the end of 2003, his dealership's inventory was nearly depleted because of strong demand in response to the model qualifying for a federal income tax break.

Hummer sales, in recent years, have been attacked by environmentalists who balk at the low fuel economy in the military-style sport utility vehicles, which register 13 miles per gallon in the city and 17 miles per gallon on the highway. With gasoline prices averaging $2.10 a gallon for self-serve unleaded regular in the Las Vegas Valley, motorists are paying an average of $67.20 to fill up their Hummers' 32-gallon tank.

Towbin suggested consumer behavior may change if gasoline prices hit $3 a gallon this year, as some analysts have predicted, but not enough to deter high-end automobile sales.

...more...

[KayLaw]

16. Flies in the face of another article in this thread

People just keep ponying up at the pump. Of course, gas for our cars is just one way high oil prices affect us as consumers.

:hi:

[happyslug]

26. What would that make the price per gallon about [b]$2.494[/b]

$80 divided by 42 Gallons to a barrel equal $1.90
add the 18.4 Cents per gallon Federal Tax = 2.084
add 27 cents per gallon State Gasoline Tax (Pa) = 2.254
For your state go here for table:
http://www.lmoga.com/taxrates.htm
Add 24 cents per gallon distribution costs: $2.494


Todays costs at $55.00 per Barrel: 1.30 per Gallon
Add Federal Tax: 1.484 per gallon
State Tax (Pa): 1.754
Approximate cost of Cost of Refining, Distributing and other overhead:
24 cents per gallon @ 1.99 per gallon.
(Derived by taking $1.99 and than subtracting the 18.4 cents Federal Gasoline tax, the 27 per gallon state tax and the $1.30 cost per Gallon cost leaving 24 cents for distribution costs. If your area is paying MORE than $1.99 than that additional cost over $1.99 has to be added to the 24 cents per gallon).

Please note as the price of Oil goes up the cost to ship it goes up i.e. remember it is oil that propels the tanker from the Mid-East to the US and than through the Refinery than to your local gas station. Thus as the price of Gasoline goes up so does the price to distribute that Gasoline.

[jswordy]

68. "Oil is still cheaper than it was in the early 1980s after adjusting...

...for inflation," Murti said.

HMMM...how the hell do you adjust for inflation on a commodity that is a fundamental of inflation itself? I question that statement. I heard on NPR this week that 2.30 a gallon for gasoline means we are at the point where we were on retail gas in the '70s crisis. That is not far away.

Future oil prices depend on our curency policy, not so much on supply and demand. Look at U.S. inventory reports for the past 6 months...adequate to good. IT'S A RUSE to say we are short oil! If we are, then who is not being served? Why are there no lines at gas stations? Everyone is getting their fuel...iut just costs a lot more. So blame supply. NO, BLAME THE DOLLAR'S DECLINE!

I went thru the last crisis. We ain't there from a supply standpoint. But we are from a pricing standpoint, due to our currency declines.

[RawMaterials]

6. In the grip of oil

Coming to terms with the new realities of supply, pricing


SANTA MONICA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Extremists have warned for years of an impending economic disaster due to the end of oil; the movement is dubbed "Peak Oil." It posits that one day all the oil in the world will be depleted, prices will soar and disaster will ensue.

And many are saying that day has come.

"Peak Oil is no longer on the way. It is here," says Michael Ruppert, who runs a Web site and pens a newsletter on topics that range from government corruption to insider trading to Osama bin Laden.

Ruppert and those like him who preach about the days of fire and brimstone are taking their cue from the fact that no significant oil deposits have been found as usage soars. The Energy Department last week released its short-term forecast, which sees demand increasing five percent over the next two years. Meanwhile, suppliers are dour about oil reserves.

"Oil is no longer in plentiful supply. The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending," ChevronTexaco Chairman David O'Reilly said in a recent speech.

Economists and oil ministers say there is no need for alarm. Indeed, James Flanigan, the economics columnist for the Los Angeles Times flatly says, "Oil prices will not -- repeat, will not -- climb inexorably in coming years, for one simple reason. It's called human nature." He says people will react and make changes in their daily lives to consume less energy.

snip..

Alternatives and economics

Until now it hasn't made much economic sense to explore other energy possibilities. Hydrogen fuel, which many say is the next giant step in energy, is far too expensive to produce for mass consumption. Nuclear energy, which could be the fastest energy source to be brought online, is too controversial -- and even at that would be about a decade away from wide accessibility, Dickson says.

So, oil is what's on the table. The question will be at what cost.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Iran this week, and Saudi Arabia is already calling for a production increase and a price reduction. That proposal isn't being embraced by Iran, which is hosting the meeting for the first time in 34 years, or Venezuela, the third largest producer in the cartel (after the Saudis and Iran).

Those countries claim the supply of oil on the world market is within historic range, and there is enough to meet current demand, which is typically less in the second quarter of the year anyway.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly concerned about price volatility. As well, higher prices send consumers in search of alternative energy sources, which doesn't bode well in the long term for oil-producing nations.

Whether the Saudi proposal passes or not, analysts don't see oil trading significantly lower. In addition, there will be assuredly a full-court press on to further oil exploration and innovation.

This week, the House and Senate budget committees are expected to vote on the President's 2006 budget, which contains language that authorizes drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. That has environmental activists are up in arms.

Whether we're at "Peak Oil" or not, don't expect we'll ever be at Cheap Oil again.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BBCA0C776%2DABCA%2D480E%2DA939%2D2AE3039DEAA4%7D

[fedsron2us]

35. Oil majors all expected to go into production decline

Four years ago, the analysts at John S. Herold Inc. were the first to call bullshit on Enron. On Feb. 21, 2001, three Herold analysts issued a report that said Enron's profit margins were shriveling, the company had too few hard assets, and its stock price was way too high. Less than ten months later, Enron filed for bankruptcy.

Today, the analysts at Herold -- a research-only firm that issues valuations on several hundred publicly traded energy companies -- are making predictions even bolder than their call on Enron. They have begun estimating when each of the world's biggest energy companies will peak in its ability to produce oil and gas. Herold's work shows that the best minds in the energy industry are accepting the reality that the globe is reaching (or has already reached) the limit of its own ability to produce ever increasing amounts of oil.

<snip>

Since last fall, Herold has done peak estimates on about two dozen oil companies. Herold believes that the French oil company, Total S.A., will reach its peak production in 2007. Herold expects 2008 to be critical, with Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and the Italian producer, Eni S.p.A., all hitting their peaks. In 2009, Herold expects ChevronTexaco Corp. to peak. In Herold's view, each of the world's seven largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months or so.

Executive vice president Richard Gordon, who heads Herold's global strategies team, says the firm's goal in doing peak-production estimates for individual oil companies is simple: "If the dinosaurs are going extinct, we are trying to figure out which ones are going to go extinct the soonest."

More at

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/03/15/herold/

(sorry you have to watch the ad to read the article)

This just leaves OPEC and many think they have been lying about their reserves.

[RawMaterials]

7. OPEC: Extra Oil May Not Cap Price Boom

ISFAHAN, Iran (Reuters) - OPEC producers on Tuesday considered a Saudi proposal for a modest increase in oil output but said they could not guarantee to cap record prices.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, meeting on Wednesday, is under pressure from consumer countries to take action to bring prices down from $55 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia is proposing OPEC lift official output limits by a modest 500,000 barrels a day (bpd), 2 percent, to 27.5 million bpd.

"Hopefully I will be convincing enough to move the rest to my thinking," said Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.

snip..


Fund managers diversifying out of equities and treasuries have helped benchmark U.S. oil prices to $48.74 average so far this year, up from $41.47 a barrel in 2004 and $30.99 in 2003.

U.S. crude on Tuesday rose 19 cents to $55.13 a barrel, just shy of October's record $55.67.

"The price risks are more to the upside than the downside," said analyst Yasser Elguindi of Medley Global Advisors. "

"There is lot more demand for the second half of the year than OPEC realized at the start of the year. They need to catch up to that reality."

OPEC experts now are projecting growth of 1.9 million barrels a day on the 84-million-bpd world market, following last year's burst of 2.6 million bpd.

Worried that energy costs could derail economic growth, U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman contacted a number of OPEC nations on policy ahead of the meeting, ministers said.

Inflated fuel bills have yet to cause any significant deceleration in world growth, but some in OPEC are concerned about the long-term impact of high prices on fuel demand.

"We're concerned about prices, we're also concerned about economic growth and we're particularly concerned about economic growth in developing countries," said Saudi's Naimi.





http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=YW0CHBFPNLTP4CRBAEZSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=7903754

[RawMaterials]

9. Kraft Foods Raises Coffee Prices (12 Percent)

Kraft Foods Raises Coffee Prices by 12 Percent to Cover Rising Raw Material Costs

Kraft Foods Inc. said Monday it has increased the price of its Maxwell House roast and ground coffee by 12 percent for a 13-ounce can to cover rising raw material costs.

It was the second coffee price increase in the past few days. On Friday, Procter & Gamble Co. boosted prices for its Folgers ground coffee, also citing the need to cover the higher cost of green, or unroasted, coffee beans.

After P&G's move, analysts had predicted that other companies likely would follow suit.

Pat Riso, a spokeswoman for Kraft's coffee division in Tarrytown, N.Y., said the suggested list price of the Maxwell House 13-ounce can was raised on Saturday from $2.29 to the new $2.57. Retailers determine the prices charged at stores.

Kraft also increased the price of its Maxwell House instant coffee by 10 cents for an 8-ounce jar. The price of its Yuban and Maxwell House Cafe Collection coffee pods, used in single-serving coffee makers, was boosted by 30 cents. The pods are sold in bags of 16 to 18, varying by the brand.

P&G said last week that it raised the suggested list price of its Folgers ground coffee by 28 cents for cans containing 11.5-ounces to 13 ounces -- depending on blend -- from $2.28 to $2.56.

Kraft shares fell 11 cents to close at $33.19 in Monday trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050314/coffee_prices_4.html

[UpInArms]

11. Reports coming in

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. MARCH EMPIRE STATE INDEX 19.6 VS 19.2 IN FEB.
8:31am 03/15/05 U.S. MARCH EMPIRE STATE INDEX BELOW CONSENSUS 19.9

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. FEB. GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE SALES UP 0.7%

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. FEB. CLOTHING STORE SALES UP 1.1%

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 7.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. FEB. GASOLINE SALES UP 0.9%

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. FEB. MOTOR VEHICLE SALES UP 0.7%

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES REVISED TO 0.3% FROM -0.3%

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. FEB. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.4% V 0.8% EXPECTED

8:30am 03/15/05 U.S. FEB. RETAIL SALES UP 0.5% VS. 0.7% EXPECTED

U.S. Feb. retail sales rise 0.5%
With upward revisions, spending remains robust

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB597BB9B%2D4F27%2D42E2%2D8091%2D09A851788EC7%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales increased 0.5 percent in February, led by purchases of electronics, clothing, gas and food outside the home, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

Sales came in below expectations of a 0.7 percent gain, but sales in January and December were revised higher by a total of 0.8 percentage points. The 0.3 percent decline in January was reversed to a 0.3 percent gain. December sales were revised to a 1.3 percent gain.

Motor vehicle sales surprisingly rose 0.7 percent in February. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.4 percent, compared with the 0.8 percent expectations.

In the past year, retail sales climbed 7.7 percent and rose at an 8.2 percent annual pace in the past three months. Sales excluding autos are up 8.4 percent in the past year.

Gasoline station sales increased 0.9 percent in February, likely the result of higher prices. Gasoline sales are up 16.4 percent in the past year. Retail sales excluding gasoline increased 0.5 percent in February.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. New York manufacturing index inches higher in March

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.3584734954-833150969&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area expanded slightly in March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 19.6 in March from 19.2 in February. Readings over zero indicate expansion. Economists were expecting the index to rise to about 19.9 in March.

[UpInArms]

28. Last Report (Inventories)

10:00am 03/15/05 U.S. JAN. RETAIL INVENTORIES RISE 0.4%

10:00am 03/15/05 U.S. JAN. INVENTORY-SALES RATIO AT RECORD LOW 1.30

10:00am 03/15/05 U.S. JAN. BUSINESS SALES UP 0.8%

10:00am 03/15/05 U.S. JAN. INVENTORIES UP 0.9% VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.4167417477-833153969&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Jan. inventories rise 0.9%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories at U.S. businesses increased 0.9 percent in January, nearly matching the 0.8 percent gain in sales, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at a record low 1.30. The 0.9 rise in inventories was in line with the 0.8 percent gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Retail inventories increased 0.4 percent in January while sales increased 0.2 percent. Inventories at manufacturing firms increased a record 1.3 percent while sales climbed 1.4 percent. Inventories at wholesalers increased 1.1 percent while sales increased 0.5 percent.

and filling in the blanks:

Mar 15 8:30 AM
NY Empire State Index Mar
report 19.60
briefing.com 17.0
market 19.9
last report 19.19
revised -

Mar 15 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Feb
report 0.5%
briefing.com 0.8%
market 0.6%
last report 0.3%
revised -0.3%

Mar 15 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Feb
report 0.4%
briefing.com 0.9%
market 0.8%
last report 1.0%
revised 0.6%

Mar 15 10:00 AM
Business Inventories Jan
report 0.9%
briefing.com 1.0%
market 0.9%
last report 0.2%
revised -

[MARALE]

31. must have been some good deals on autos!

I wonder if there were a lot of more fuel efficient cars being sold last month and that is why the auto sales went up so much. Usually they are a drag on the retail sales, this time they bouyed them.

[UpInArms]

32. a peek at dealer incentives

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=7843882

GM sets 'March Madness' incentives to boost sales

DETROIT, March 8 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , hurt by weaker U.S. sales and high inventories, will roll out a new consumer incentive program on Thursday that includes a $1,000 cash rebate toward vehicles that have gone unsold for more than 120 days, dealers said on Tuesday.

The "March Madness" sale, which can be combined with other sales incentives, is GM's first national incentive program since the auto maker named a new head of North American sales and marketing last week.

<snip>

One Michigan dealer, who described his January and February sales as "horrible," said: "We need something for momentum. I'm pretty optimistic that it will give us the momentum we need."

A second dealer said that GM may offer more than $1,000 on some vehicles, including some of its Cadillac luxury vehicles, when it officially announces the program later this week. He said all GM brands would be included, including Cadillac, Hummer, Saab, Saturn and others.

<snip>

GM offered an average of $3,814 in cash rebates and cut-rate financing on every new vehicle it sold in February, according to industry tracking firm Autodata. That was more than any other auto maker, but 9 percent less than GM's average incentives in February 2004, it said.

...more...

and:

http://www.theledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050311/ZNYT01/503110402/1001/business

How Long Can G.M. Tread Water?

DETROIT, March 10 - Since the Depression, General Motors has reigned as the world's largest automaker and a pillar of American economic might. But now the company is broadly struggling and facing the humbling possibility that it will be displaced by Toyota at the top of the auto industry within a few years.

General Motors, which controlled nearly half the American market as recently as the late 1970's, held about one-quarter in February. Last week, the company said that it would produce 300,000 fewer cars and trucks in North America in the first half of this year, a 10 percent drop from a year ago.

Its European operations have lost money for five consecutive years and rising interest rates are expected to cool its lending division. With its shrinking profits dwarfed by those of Nissan and Toyota, G.M.'s debt is threatened with a downgrade to a junk bond rating, a move that could force it to pay more to borrow money.

<snip>

Both G.M. and Ford Motor have made huge bets on sales of large sport utilities and pickup trucks in the United States, a wager that some analysts say is at risk as gas prices rise. G.M. has upped the ante by creating a new brand around Hummer, the least fuel-efficient brand in the industry. Still, G.M. executives say their fortunes will improve considerably in 2006 and 2007 as a new generation of large sport utility vehicles and large pickup trucks hits the market.

...more...

[MARALE]

34. A couple of funny lines in there

is GM's first national incentive program since the auto maker named a new head of North American sales and marketing last week.


Still, G.M. executives say their fortunes will improve considerably in 2006 and 2007 as a new generation of large sport utility vehicles and large pickup trucks hits the market.

I found both of these statements tickled my funny bone.

Glad to have you back UIA, enjoy all your posts a lot!:bounce:

[ozymandius]

38. I found that line funny too.

Still, G.M. executives say their fortunes will improve considerably in 2006 and 2007 as a new generation of large sport utility vehicles and large pickup trucks hits the market.

In other words, our fortunes will reverse when we introduce a new line of vehicles that the public is not already buying.

[UpInArms]

39. these cretins in the autoindustry do seem to have

a strange sense of humor, don't they :eyes:

I never know if the writers of these articles realize just how stupid they sound :shrug:

It's good to be back, Marale - glad that my obsessive posting doesn't make you run shrieking in horror :D :hi:

[RawMaterials]

17. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Finds That Healthy U.S. Job Picture Is

Finds That Healthy U.S. Job Picture Is Expected to Continue Through June

MILWAUKEE, March 15, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- The strong hiring activity that U.S. employers predicted for the first three months of the year is expected to continue into the second quarter, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.

"After three years of volatility in their job outlook, U.S. employers have shown stability in their hiring plans for more than a year now. Companies have seemed to find a rhythm in their hiring practices. What we are witnessing from U.S. businesses is that they are very willing to increase headcount to meet demand for their products and services but will only do so if tied to measured demand, as opposed to an anticipation of demand," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc.

Of the 16,000 U.S. employers that were surveyed, 30% plan to add staff in the second quarter, while 7% expect to reduce their payrolls. Fifty-eight percent of the hiring managers polled anticipate no change in staff levels for the coming quarter, and 5% are unsure of their hiring plans. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Net Employment Outlook is the same as it was for the first three months of the year and is similar to last year at this time. In fact, this marks the fifth consecutive quarter in which employers have reported hiring expectations that rival those last seen in the beginning months of 2001.

Quarter over quarter hiring plans are remarkably similar across the 10 industry sectors surveyed. The most notable differences are among Education and Public Administration employers who anticipate a slightly more active hiring pace than in the first quarter of 2005. Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Trade employers, on the other hand, intend to decrease staff levels, albeit on a very small scale, from April to June

more..

http://investor.manpower.com/ReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=157950

[UpInArms]

18. "Manpower" is a temporary job placement service

and, imho, their survey equal dooda.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

19. S&P puts AIG's AAA credit rating under review, may cut

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.371676169-833151515&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services Tuesday said it's put American International Group's (AIG) and its units' 'AAA' long-term counterparty credit rating on CreditWatch with negative implications. "These rating actions follow the announcement that AIG's long-standing CEO, Maurice Greenburg, has stepped down, and that the CFO, Howard Smith, has taken leave," Standard & Poor's credit analyst Grace Osborne said in a press release.

Oopsie!

[UpInArms]

60. AIG debt cut to "negative"

1:54pm 03/15/05 MOODY'S CUTS OUTLOOK ON AIG DEBT TO 'NEGATIVE'

[UpInArms]

20. Foreign capital flows up sharply in January

8:59am 03/15/05 U.S. JAN. CAPITAL FLOWS SECOND-HIGHEST ON RECORD

8:59am 03/15/05 U.S. JAN. CAPITAL FLOWS $91.5 BLN VS.REV. $60.7 BLN DEC

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.3750452894-833151675&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Foreign capital flows were up sharply in January as overseas investors bought more stocks, and central banks increased their purchases of Treasury bonds and notes, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. Foreign long-term net capital flows into the U.S. rose to $91.5 billion in January from a revised $60.7 billion in December, according to a Treasury report. The long-term capital flow figure is the highest since May 2003 and the second-highest on record.

Could all those newly-minted yen be rushing in? :eyes:

[Turley]

22. Big Number

Japan, China, Korea down as advertised.

Increases came from France, Germany, Mexico, among others.

[mmonk]

24. Interesting

[ozymandius]

23. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

Recognition, Revaluation, & Reallocation

Energy demand in the United States and China has been relentless. The appetite for more oil in the two fastest growing economies in the world goes on unabated. Instead of a slowdown in energy use this year, demand will be up again. Worldwide demand will grow by 2.2 percent. The relief that everyone was expecting isn’t there. The IEA just raised its forecast for demand to 84.3 million barrels per day. Oil demand in China is slowing down, but it is still growing. The IEA estimates that Chinese oil demand will grow by 100,000 barrels to 500,000 a day. China’s economy is expected to grow by 7.9 percent this year. That is down from the 9.4 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year. An 8 percent growth rate is still substantial and it requires more energy to sustain it.

Currently global production is running at the rate needed to satisfy demand – but just barely. Forecasters expect demand to grow again next year to 86.1 million barrels a day. Where is that oil to come from? Non-OPEC countries are pumping at full capacity. In addition to full capacity, non-OPEC production is in decline. Everyone is hoping that OPEC will make up the difference, but many have their doubts. Experts believe that OPEC has less than 1 million barrels of capacity left. This weekend Algeria’s minister for energy and mines said that OPEC has reached its limits. According to the IEA, oil consumption has caught up with crude production and refining capacity. It is one reason that prices have remained this high.

-cut-

Peak Oil Around The Corner

Simmons and others believe that “peak oil” may soon be upon us. In his new book “Beyond Oil” geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes believes that we may hit peak oil as soon as this November or early next year. Peak oil is reached when 50% of known supplies have been used up. From that point forward supplies begin to decline. The geologists believe that “peak oil” will arrive in this decade. Deffeyes believes it happens this year. We will know that it has arrived only though hindsight. What we do know is that there have been no major oil discoveries in the last 30 years. The last big discoveries were in Alaska in the late 60’s and the North Sea in the early 70’s. Both of these discoveries are now in decline.

-cut-

Wake Up Wall Street

Wall Street still isn’t fond of the energy sector. Compare the number of upgrades from brokerage firms for technology companies versus their oil recommendations. The bias with Wall Street and investors remains focused on tech even though technology earnings have peaked. According to Fred Hickey the semiconductor bulls are calling for an imminent turn up in business, while tech’s customers' businesses aren’t improving. Dell, Intel’s biggest customer, is still struggling to meet their numbers. Even worse for the industry, competition is getting tougher with new sources of supply coming on stream. Pricing power is fleeting. While sales and profits have improved during this recovery, technology leaders are no longer the growth companies they once were in the early 90’s.

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[RawMaterials]

25. Pre-Open Blather

9:17AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Stage remains set for a higher open for stocks as bonds hold steady at higher levels while oil holds below $55/bbl ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting... Separately, it's worth noting that the Net Foreign Purchases report checked in at $91.5 bln versus Street expectations in the neighborhood of $58.5-59.0 bln... This is the second highest level ever and has alleviated concerns for the time being about foreigners being unwilling to finance the U.S. current account deficit

9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures trade stabilizes above fair value, suggesting a slightly higher open for the cash market... Contributing to the upside bias has been resilience on the part of bonds following the retail sales figures, as yields on the 10-year note remain below 4.5%... Brokerage should get a boost after Lehman Brothers (LEH) handily beat Q1 forecasts by $0.71 while multiple upgrades on Genentech (DNA) should keep Biotech in focus

8:33AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures trade ticks a bit higher following economic data, indicating a slightly higher open for the indices... Feb retail sales checked in at +0.5%, basically matching expectations, after a revised 0.3% rise last month, while ex autos came in at +0.4%, below expectations and versus a revised 1.0% rise... NY Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 19.6, relatively in line with forecasts, from a prior read of 19.2

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a relatively flat open for the cash market as investors await key economic data... Feb. Retail Sales (consensus +0.6%), Feb. Retail Sales ex-auto (consensus +0.8%) and the Mar. NY Empire State Index (consensus 19.9) will be out at 8:30 ET

6:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5.

6:15AM : FTSE...4988.50...+13.50...+0.3%. DAX...4376.08...+8.78...+0.2%.

6:15AM : Nikkei...11821.09...-29.16...-0.3%. Hang Seng...13816.75...-90.10...-0.7%.

[MARALE]

27. Stocks rise on solid data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC6CFFB93%2D3A48%2D4DC9%2DA2E1%2D3F96BC8D5381%7D&siteid=mktw

Retail sales were a bit of a disappointment but if you take in the revisions, they were more or less in line," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at S.W. Bach.

Cardillo said equity traders may be taking some comfort from a drop in long-term interest rates in the wake of the data.

...

Its Empire State Index showed manufacturing activity in the New York region expanded slightly in March. The index edged up to 19.6 from 19.2 in February. Readings over zero indicate expansion. The rise was a little shy of economists' expectations of a reading of 19.9.

"The New York manufacturing survey remained steady at just under 20, indicating growth remained solid in the manufacturing sector last month," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC.

"Among the various components worth noting, employment continued to rise, new orders fell off sharply and both prices paid and received moved higher last month."

that last sentence doesn't sound too good, also what is happening to the dollar today, is it because of the large amount sold?

[UpInArms]

29. 10:09 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,818.98 +14.47 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,050.14 -0.90 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,208.20 +1.37 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 44.90 -0.26 (-0.58%)

NYSE Volume 207,653,000
Nasdaq Volume 324,359,000

10:00AM: Buyers remain in control of the early action as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Brokerage has been strong following better than expected Q1 earnings from Lehman (LEH 95.24 +1.92) while interest-rate sensitive groups like Homebuilding (+0.9%) and Utility (+0.3%) have gotten a boost from falling bond yields... Biotech (+0.3%) has extended yesterday's gains following multiple upgrades on Genentech (DNA 56.95 +1.95) while Transportation, Consumer Staples, Materials and Industrials have also been influential leaders to the upside...

Semiconductor (-1.1%), however, has been under pressure following comments out of Merrill Lynch regarding the lack of elements necessary (i.e. higher margins and sharply higher EPS estimates) to support a real upturn in the chip business...NYSE Adv/Dec 1677/783, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1602/818

9:40AM: Stocks open on a higher note amid encouraging retail sales trends... Feb. retail sales rose 0.5%, slightly below forecasts of a 0.6% rise, but were moderately higher than January's read of +0.3%, which was revised from a 0.3% decline... Retail sales excluding the volatile auto component also checked in a bit lower than forecasts at +0.4% (consensus +0.8%), but the Jan. figure was revised to +1.0% from an initial reading of +0.4%...

More notably, the gains in sales ex autos over the past three months reflect good underlying demand, as consumer spending trends clearly remain strong, underpinning a floor of buying support early on for both stocks and bonds... Separately, Fed Chairman Greenspan will testify before the Senate on Social Security at 10:00 ET while the Commerce Dept. will release Jan Business Inventories (consensus +0.9%) at the top of the hour...

[UpInArms]

30. Meanspin's on the loose

10:00am 03/15/05 GREENSPAN: MAKE SOCIAL SECURITY 'LOCK BOX' A REALITY

10:00am 03/15/05 GREENSPAN: LOCK BOX WOULD FORCE DEFICIT REDUCTION

10:00am 03/15/05 GREENSPAN: FEDERAL BUDGET ON 'UNSUSTAINABLE PATH'

10:00am 03/15/05 GREENSPAN URGES 'URGENT REVIEW' OF PROMISED BENEFITS

Greenspan: Make Social Security lock box a reality

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.4180653009-833154173&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan on Tuesday said private retirement accounts could serve as a Social Security "lock box" that would force Congress to cut the deficit and boost national savings over the long run. In testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Special Committee on Aging, Greenspan said the "major attraction" of private accounts is that they can be "constructed to be truly segregated from the unifed budget and, therefore, are more likely to induce the federal government to take those actions that would reduce public dissaving and raise national saving."

hahahahahahaha - he's not talking about our "trust" fund (that every working person has paid into - he's spewing the Dimson's crap on "private accounts".

[RawMaterials]

33. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the Lock Box

what gore wanted to do with the surplus in 2000.

[ozymandius]

36. It's what Bush wanted to do in 2000, too.

But, lucky he, hit the trifecta (sic).

[UpInArms]

40. but this is a "new and improved" version of the "Lockbox"

this one will be created because of the "privatization" of Social Security - this creepy shill for the BFEE makes me want to :puke:

and this "new and improved" usage of the "lockbox" verbiage is just to throw everyone off the trail of the thieves once again.

[UpInArms]

41. more Meanspin here

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.4828860764-833156918&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

Greenspan: Tough to gauge dollar path

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Senate committee that efforts to forecast the path of the dollar in foreign exchange markets are "no better than chance." Asked whether seniors spooked by a falling dollar should buy foreign-denominated certificates of deposit, Greenspan said such a move would be "rank speculation." Greenspan, however, said efforts to boost national savings in order to help pay for the retirement of Baby Boomers would go a "long way in creating balance in our international accounts and would be a significant factor in the reduction of our current account balance."

and the circlejerk goes on - this mal-administration's policies have destroyed the dollar and the savings of this country - now because of these same policies the way to "cure" it is to destroy Social Security and place those funds in the pockets of the money changers - of course they say "money managers" -

:argh:

[ozymandius]

46. Before now, I've never had fantasies about seeing

Greenscam appear in shackles.

[UpInArms]

47. Private accounts touted as 'lock box'

Greenspan: Future Social Security promises unrealistic

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCA3CF1FE%2D747A%2D4D47%2DB67E%2DBD1789DDF502%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan on Tuesday argued that private retirement accounts could serve as a "lock box" that would help Congress reduce the federal budget deficit and increase national savings.

In testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Special Committee on Aging, Greenspan said that focusing solely on the solvency of the Social Security program itself would be a mistake. Tax hikes or other measures that extend the program's solvency but reduce saving elsewhere would be of little benefit, he said.

Under the current system, surplus Social Security revenues are spent. The system last year saw revenues exceed outlays by around $150 billion.

Social Security's annual surpluses are replaced with special-issue Treasury bonds. The entitlement program's surpluses mask the true size of the federal deficit, Greenspan noted.

<snip>

The "major attraction" of private accounts, he said, is that they can be "constructed to be truly segregated from the unified budget and, therefore, are more likely to induce the federal government to take those actions that would reduce public dissaving and raise national saving."

...more...

SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT A FREAKIN' ENTITLEMENT PROGRAM

It is a TRUST FUND - FICA is paid into by every working person - it is not an "entitlement program".

:argh:

I hate this sack of shit!

[AnneD]

57. Time for that political shill to go

I think he has gotten so senile on the hill that he is actually believing Dubya.

[UpInArms]

58. no, AnneD - Meanspin has been in on the thievery from day one

http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/gspan5.html

1983 Greenspan Commission on Social Security Reform

Appendix C of the 1983 Greenspan Commission on Social Security Reform

Chapter 2

FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The National Commission was assigned the critical job of assessing whether the OASDI program has financing problems in the short run and over the long-range future (as represented by the 75-year valuation period) and, if so, recommending how such problems could be resolved.

The National Commission has agreed that there is a financing problem for the OASDI program for both the short run, 1983-89 (as measured using pessimistic economic assumptions) and the long range, 1983-2056 (as measured by an intermediate cost estimate) and that action should be taken to strengthen the financial status of the program.(1) The National Commission recognized that, under the intermediate cost estimate, the financial status of the OASDI program in the 1990s and early 2000s will be favorable (i.e., income will significantly exceed outgo) -- see Table 7A in Appendix K. The National Commission also recognized that, under the intermediate cost estimate, the financial status of the HI program becomes increasingly unfavorable from 1990 until the end of the period for which the estimates are made -- see Table 7B in Appendix K.

(1) The assumptions underlying these cost estimates are summarized in Tables 12 and 13 of Appendix K.

The National Commission makes the following recommendations unanimously:

(1) The members of the National Commission believe that the Congress, in its deliberations on financing proposals, should not alter the fundamental structure of the Social Security program or undermine its fundamental principles.* The National Commission considered, but rejected, proposals to make the Social Security program a voluntary ones or to transform it into a program under which benefits are a product exclusively of the contributions paid, or to convert it into a fully-funded program, or to change it to a program under which benefits are conditioned on the showing of financial need.**

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. N.J. AG revokes brokers' licenses in Merrill case

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38426.4902993634-833157184&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- New Jersey Attorney General Peter C. Harvey said Tuesday he has revoked the licenses of three broker-dealer agents in connection with the $10 million settlement reached with Merrill Lynch (MER) last week over improper mutual fund trading. Harvey said he has also filed an administrative complaint against the three N.J.-based financial advisers who allegedly defrauded mutual fund companies and their long-term shareholders in connection with hundreds of millions of dollars in market timing trades.

more reasons for those marvelous dollar-doldrum budget deficit savings enhancing cure-all privatized accounts! - the honest brokers only are looking out for the consumer/saver! there is no "casino mob" mentality or goodfellows brotherhood - so quit saying that!

[UpInArms]

43. 12:03 EST numbers and blather (getting a little red in the face)

Dow 10,780.35 -24.16 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,040.07 -10.97 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,202.80 -4.03 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 45.05 -0.11 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 631,532,000
Nasdaq Volume 851,376,000

11:30AM: Stocks continue to trade at improved levels although the recent recovery effort seems to have stalled... With only three weeks remaining in the current quarter, notable earnings reports have been few and far between... However, today's most significant reports have had a strong influence on their respective industries... Lehman Brothers (LEH 95.94 +2.62) reported Q1 (Feb) earnings of $2.91, beating analysts' forecasts by $0.71 on strong revenues $3.81 bln, promptly assisting the S&P Investment Banking Index with a gain of 1.1%...

Albertsons (ABS 20.19 -0.68), however, missed Q4 expectations and issued downside FY06 guidance, and has subsequently weighed on the S&P Food Retail Index (-1.2%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1917/1156, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1553/1291

11:00AM: Market improves some although blue chip gains remain moderate at best... Aside from retail sales data, investors have had two other pieces of economic data to sift through this morning... Jan Business Inventories rose a strong 0.9%, in line with expectations, while the inventory to sales ratio remained unchanged at a record low 1.30 month... Also, the Mar. NY Empire State Index checked in at 19.6, slightly below forecasts of 19.9 but up slightly from Feb.'s read of 19.2, as any level above zero reflects growth...

But with most of the inventories data having already been reported and the upcoming Chicago PMI acting as the more influential read on regional manufacturing activity, both reports have been relatively overlooked...NYSE Adv/Dec 1876/1108, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1464/1282

[ozymandius]

44. 12:05 blather update - Greenscam's piehole openeth

12:05PM: Market remains under modest pressure midday after confirmed cases of Anthrax are found at the Pentagon mail facility... It has been reported that samples taken at a Pentagon mail facility have tested positive for anthrax... Meanwhile, Greenspan's comments have shifted sentiment in bonds, lifting yields enough to eradicate early gains initially spurred by respectable economic data and falling oil prices ($54.60/bbl -$0.35) ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting and the weekly oil report...

Greenspan has said that Congress must fix social security funding now and encourage later retirement, as private accounts would force Congress to reduce spending... More notably, Greenspan has also warned that rising budget deficits pose a major threat to economic expansion, as "the federal budget is on an unsustainable path," an issue that has underpinned a more cautious stance for both stocks and Treasurys... The 10-year note is now off 4 ticks to yield 4.52%... While Feb. retail sales of +0.5% (consensus 0.6%) and retail sales ex autos of +0.4% (consensus +0.8%) came in below forecasts, a number too large may have arguably raised inflation concerns...

Upward revisions to January's data also lent some early support as consumer spending trends clearly remain strong... Meanwhile, virtually every sector has succumbed to selling pressure... Broad-based weakness in Semiconductor (-1.8%), after Merrill Lynch cited a lack of elements necessary (i.e. higher margins and sharply higher EPS estimates) to support a real upturn in the chip business, continues to weigh on Technology...

[ozymandius]

45. C'mon Mr. Greenscam! Let's be honest.

Why not cut through the euphemistic chatter and declare that you want to kill Social Security.

Greenspan has said that Congress must fix social security funding now and encourage later retirement, as private accounts would force Congress to reduce spending...

He apparently means to fix Social Security like we've fixed Iraq.

[UpInArms]

49. Ozy, shackles would be too flimsy

this cretin should be in leg-irons and chained to a cellar wall.

:grr:

see my post here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1312994&mesg_id=1313926&page=

[ozymandius]

50. When he is dead and gone they will have to bury him in an

unmarked grave to prevent would-be retirees from pissing on his plot.

I am furious that he touts his "solution" of raising the age at which one can receive benefits. Workers will continually pay FICA and receive little or no benefit. This amounts to an additional tax on people who make $90k and less.

What a criminal asshole.

[UpInArms]

51. Meanspin is worse than a common criminal

he is just a piece of the mob family that has been intent on the ruination of the middle class.

Here is what this piece of flotsam has done -



the surplus was over his objections during Clinton's admin

[ozymandius]

48. 12:26 - bond market starts to bleed

Dow 10,791.21 -13.30(-0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,042.24 -8.80(-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,204.14 -2.69(-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 45.24 +0.08(+0.18%)

NYSE Volume 698,038,000
Nasdaq Volume 926,782,000

[JNelson6563]

53. Holy cannolli! 45% yield!

haha I know it's a typo.

12:44:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,787.44 -17.07 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,041.88 -9.16 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,203.31 -3.52 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.521% +0.01


Looks like they stopped the gusher in Treasuries but still, after fabulous numbers this morn, where's the love? ;-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

55. HA HA! Thanks Julie. Good to see you around again.

:hi: Ozy

[ozymandius]

52. WorldCom's Ebbbers Convicted of Fraud

-cut-

Ebbers, 63, had been charged with fraud, conspiracy and filing false documents with regulators -- all of which relate to the $11 billion accounting scandal at the telecommunications company he founded. He faced up to 85 years in prison if convicted on all counts.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&ncid=578&e=2&u=/nm/20050315/ts_nm/crime_ebbers_dc

[UpInArms]

56. Ebbers the skinflint worried about spending on coffee

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA3E1D300%2D73B4%2D4BCE%2DB6CC%2DD41045FECC03%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Prosecutors ridiculed the notion that Ebbers did not know what was going on in the company that he ran for 20 years. They painted Ebbers as a domineering figure who intimidated aides and obsessed about the smallest details, such as how much money the company was paying for coffee.

but the paragraph that made me happiest:

Ebbers, 63, could spend the rest of his life in jail and pay millions of dollars in fines. He's scheduled to be sentenced on June 13, though Ebbers' lawyer indicated right after the verdict that he would appeal.

Hope his "appeal" works as well as Martha's did :eyes:

[Kweli4Real]

67. While I hate to see anyone ...

...on their way to prison. I am more disgusted with the disparate application of "justice" and "due process." Ebber had been accused of stealing millions, but was allowed to use the proceeds of his alleged crime to post bond and avoid incarceration for what ... three years. Didn't he use those same proceeds to pay his high priced defense council? Won't he use those same proceeds to post his appeal bond?

Do you think that Joe Bankrobber and/or Sandy Drugdealer would be allowed to use the proceeds of their crimes to post bond?

Sorry, I guess I posted this in the wrong forum.

[UpInArms]

71. guilty on all 9 counts - $11 Billion Fraud

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aXExjBnu.tUQ&refer=home

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Former WorldCom Inc. Chairman Bernard Ebbers, the ex-milkman and bouncer who built a small Mississippi telephone company into the second-largest U.S. long- distance provider, was convicted of directing an $11 billion fraud that triggered the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Federal jurors in New York rejected Ebbers's testimony that he didn't know subordinates were cooking the books and convicted him of all charges: conspiracy, securities fraud, and lying to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Ebbers, 63, faces up to 10 years in prison on eight of nine charges against him and may spend the rest of his life behind bars.

``The conviction today signals a complete rejection of his testimony by the jury, and it will leave many questioning the wisdom of sending Ebbers to the stand in the first place,'' said Robert Mintz, a former federal prosecutor now with the Newark, New Jersey, law firm of McCarter & English. ``The high-risk gamble of taking the stand simply blew up on him.''

The verdict is the biggest success yet for federal prosecutors in the U.S. government's crackdown on corporate fraud that began after the collapse of energy trader Enron Corp. in 2001. WorldCom lost more than $180 billion in market value before its bankruptcy filing in July 2002.

...more...

save your tears for someone who might actually possess a bit of humanity, Kweli4real.

Vent away! and Welcome to DU! :hi:

[ozymandius]

54. 12:45 numbers and blather

Dow 10,790.62 -13.89(-0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,042.50 -8.54(-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,203.35 -3.48(-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond45.20+0.04(+0.09%)

12:30PM: Major indices continue to trade near their lows of the session, showing resilience above key technical levels, but market internals now hold a bearish bias... Decliners on the NYSE now hold a slim 8 to 7 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 15 to 13 margin... The ratio of down to up volumes also reflects a slightly negative tone on both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have all found initial support at key levels of 10750, 1203 and 2039, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1475/1671, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1349/1561

[UpInArms]

59. 1:47 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,774.07 -30.44 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,038.00 -13.04 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,200.81 -6.02 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 45.34 +0.18 (+0.40%)

NYSE Volume 913,315,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,159,166,000

1:30PM: Sellers show some resolve as borrowing costs get more expensive... Treasurys have recently fallen to new intraday lows, lifting yields on the 10-year note (-8/32) even further above the psychological 4.5% level... Bonds have erased early gains upon further analysis of this morning's TICS report that, while a substantial jump in foreign investment in U.S. government debt was realized, the largest increase did not come from the central banks typically responsible for financing the U.S. current account deficit...NYSE Adv/Dec 1544/1661, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1400/1600

1:00PM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Making a new 52-week high, however, has been S&P constituent Comvese Technology (CMVT 25.47 +1.82) after reporting better than expected Q4 earnings of $0.10 per share on revenues of $259.1 mln last night... Improved margins and a record backlog of $568 mln, which prompted UBS to upgrade the stock to Buy from Neutral, has also helped shares surge more than 7.0%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1563/1635, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1388/1568

[ozymandius]

61. 2:17 numbers and blather

Dow 10,776.36 -28.15(-0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,038.54 -12.50(-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,201.42 -5.41(-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.538 +0.22(+0.49%)
NYSE Volume 1,003,603,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,253,446,000

2:00PM: Market slips a bit further into the red as oil prices spike to session highs... Crude oil futures have recently climbed to $55.30/bbl (+$0.35) amid ongoing oil supply concerns despite OPEC pumping nearly 1 mln more barrels a day than its target last month... Meanwhile, it has been reported that Libya, which along with Algeria rejected Saudi Arabia's proposal to raise quotas by 500K barrels overnight, opposes Kuwait's proposal for a 1 mln barrel OPEC increase and remains in favor of monitoring the market...

OPEC will announce their final decision on production quotas at tomorrow's meeting in Iran... NYSE Adv/Dec 1344/1895, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1257/1784

[UpInArms]

62. 3:28 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,767.12 -37.39 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,036.23 -14.81 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,200.13 -6.70 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.542 +0.26 (+0.58%)

NYSE Volume 1,264,382,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,550,537,000

3:00PM: Equities remain on the defensive as selling remains widespread across most areas... Showing resilience, however, has been Retail (RLX +0.3%)... Continued strength in Office Depot (ODP 21.55 +0.80), after it named a new CEO yesterday, has paced the way higher while Albertsons (ABS 20.10 -0.77), which missed analysts' Q4 expectations and guided FY06 earnings below consensus this morning, has minimized gains... Other notable movers to the upside have been DDS (+2.3%), JWN (+1.6%) and HD (+1.2%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1176/2096, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1174/1919

2:30PM: More of the same as the major averages continue to drift sideways... Biotech has been in focus all day following yesterday's upbeat preliminary Phase III clinical data from Genentech (DNA 55.69 +0.69) regarding its Avastin drug... Protein Design Labs (PDLI 17.52 +1.11), which co-developed Avastin, has also surged...

But broad-based weakness, led by selling pressure in Amgen (AMGN 58.90 -1.53) after it lost a U.S. appeals court ruling over Enbrel, has more than offset gains in both DNA and PDLI - two of just three components in the AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK -0.6%) to trade higher on the afternoon... NYSE Adv/Dec 1350/1913, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1261/1821

[RawMaterials]

63. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10745.10 -59.41 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2034.98 -16.06 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1197.75 -9.08 (-0.75%)
10-Yr Bond 4.542% +0.26

NYSE Volume 1,459,662,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,800,053,000



Close Dow -59.41 at 10746.10, S&P -9.08 at 1197.75, Nasdaq -16.06 at 2034.98: High bond yields, oil prices near record highs, tech weakness and an Anthrax scare weighed on sentiment, diluting decent economic data and a strong earnings report, and closed the major indices in negative territory... While Treasurys found early buying interest following a smaller than expected gains in Feb. retail sales data, continued selling pressure again lifted yields on the 10-year note above an arguably undesirable 4.5%...

Feb. retail sales of +0.5% (consensus 0.6%) and retail sales ex autos of +0.4% (consensus +0.8%) came in below forecasts; gains just large enough not to raise inflation concerns, as upward revisions to January's data showed that consumer spending trends clearly remained strong... Meanwhile, Net Foreign Security Purchases checked in at $91.5 bln, well above Street expectations of around $58.5-59.0 bln, initially mitigating worries about foreigners' willingness to finance the U.S. current account deficit ... But upon further analysis, the second largest increase ever came from Caribbean banking centers (also known as hedge-funds) and not from the more notable central banks widely expected and accepted to finance the U.S. current account deficit...

As a result, the benchmark 10-year note fell to its worst levels of the session and closed down 8 ticks to yield 4.54% as surging oil prices also invited inflationary pressures... Crude oil futures closed at $55.05/bbl (+$0.10) amid ongoing oil supply concerns ahead of OPEC's final decision on production quotas at tomorrow's meeting in Iran... Confirmed reports midday that samples from a Pentagon mail facility tested positive for Anthrax also added to the eroding interest for equities, assisted in a negative reversal in market internals that never recovered...

Meanwhile, technology was weak across the board, with Semiconductor (-2.1%) pacing the way to the downside after Merrill Lynch said growth in semi space would likely be stalled for much of the year... Software, Disk Drive and Networking also lost in excess of 1.0% on the day while Telecom Services, Energy, Consumer Staples and Utility were influential leaders to the downside...

Financial was weak despite strength in Brokerage (+0.3%) after Lehman (LEH 95.36 +2.04) handily bear analysts' Q1 expectations while Food retail (-2.4%) closed lower after Albertsons (ABS 20.10 -0.77) missed analysts' Q4 expectations and guided FY06 earnings below consensus... Biotech also lost ground, led by weakness in Amgen (AMGN 58.61 -1.82), which lost a U.S. appeals court ruling over Enbrel, and profit taking in Genentech (DNA54.00 -1.00) while a rally in Steel stocks (+1.9%) minimized losses in the Materials sector... Retail (+0.3%), however, eked out a modest gain, led by strong follow through from Office Depot (ODP 21.55 +0.80) after it named a new CEO a day earlier...

The dollar, which was weak early on after Feb. retail sales rose at a slower than expected pace, closed higher against the euro (1.3312) after the Treasury's TICS report surged to its second highest level ever... temporarily mitigating worries about foreigners' willingness to finance the U.S. current account deficit... Separately, Jan Business Inventories rose a strong 0.9% (consensus 0.9%) and the Mar. NY Empire State Index checked in at 19.6 (consensus 19.9), but the dated inventories data and less noteworthy regional manufacturing survey were basically overlooked...NYSE Adv/Dec 1120/2210, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1162/1954

3:30PM : Indices remain underwater heading into the close, as the Nasdaq still trails its blue chip counterparts... One notable Composite-listed stock impressively bucking the negative bias, however, has been TiVo (TIVO 6.54 +2.71)... Shares have soared more than 70% after it agreed to a deal with Comcast Corp (CMCSA 33.92 -0.07) that would make its digital recording technology available to Comcast's 21.5 mln subscribers...

Separately, economic data will return to the spotlight tomorrow, with Q4 Current Account (consensus -$183.0 bln), Feb. Housing Starts (consensus 2030K) and Feb. Building Permits (consensus 2070K) hitting the wires at 8:30 ET... Feb Industrial Production (consensus +0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.2%) will be released at 9:15 ET while BSC and KG will provide the only notable earnings reports...NYSE Adv/Dec 1241/2045, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1193/1918

[ozymandius]

65. Thanks for checking back RawMaterials.

beat me by a nose again...

[RawMaterials]

66. guess were just in sync

:)

[ozymandius]

64. final numbers

Dow 10,746.80 -57.71(-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,034.98 -16.06(-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,197.86 -8.97(-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.542 +0.26(+0.58%)

NYSE Volume1,468,058,000
Nasdaq Volume1,815,011,000

[JNelson6563]

69. Zowie! Early futures look mighty grim!

Look at those charts in initial post of this thread and you will see. Is tomorrow shaping up to be Wednesday, bloody Wednesday? Or will the PPT swoop in and make it all go away? Perhaps a big hearted corporation will get the Street through another day by cutting a few thousand jobs?

We can only hope. Ugh.

Julie

[spotbird]

70. Why is the dollar improving?

There doesn't seem to be a reason.

[UpInArms]

72. no definitive answer

to that, but the BoJ probably has a bit part in it all - the Japanese fiscal year ends the end of this month and they depend upon the dollar to make them look "good" so it is in their interests to continue their yen games for a while longer.

Have to say that 82 to the basket is not what I consider "good" - but there are many shoes yet to drop and the balancing act becomes more difficult all the time.

Thanks for dropping by spotbird :hi:

Come see and add to the SMW anytime!

[spotbird]

73. Thank you!

I'm a frequent lurker, this is a very informative thread.