STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 16 August

[ozymandius]

Tuesday August 16, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 158 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 239 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 303 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1360
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 15, 2005

Dow... 10,634.38 +34.07 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq... 2,167.04 +10.14 (+0.47%)
S&P 500... 1,233.87 +3.48 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.27% +0.03 (+0.76%)
Gold future... 447.60 -3.80 (-0.85%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

A SLOW BOAT TO CHINA OR HOLLYWOOD HUBRIS?

Having recently listened to Matthew Simmons being interviewed by Jim Puplava on the Financial Sense Newshour about his new book, Twilight In The Desert, I started thinking again and again about China – and their insatiable growing economy. In fact, I thought so long and hard about all of this I began trying to resolve some of the ‘conflicted data’ being reported in the financial press as it relates to shipping and China. You see, dear reader, with the Chinese economy experiencing amazing growth rates – they are naturally dependant on importing many goods to feed their industrialization process. Importation of goods requires lots of ships and because ships are expensive and take a couple of years to build – fleets are more or less finite and shipping rates are quite elastic to demand.

-cut-

So we know for a fact that the Chinese economy continues to grow frenetically. With this being a given, I would now like to direct your attention to the performance of the Baltic Dry Index over the past 6 months. The Baltic Dry Index is set daily in London, England, has historically been a reliable proxy of world trade in dry goods and is a composite of daily inputs from the players in the global shipping industry. As you can see, this index ‘crashed’ in the past three months – and take special note how a critical chart support level was ‘blown through’ at the end of June 05:



Now I’m sure you’ve all heard the expression that ‘a picture is worth a thousand words’ or not, but the one above sure leads me to believe that ‘something doesn’t smell quite right in Denmark’.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. American investors move away from US assets

US financial markets have paid particularly close attention to foreign appetite for US assets amid concerns that Asian central banks could be curbing their purchases of US bonds. Lower demand from overseas could push US borrowing costs sharply higher. The inflows into the US were led in June by the corporate bond market. Foreigners bought a record net $52.2bn in corporate debt compared with a 12-month average of $27bn as bonds rallied strongly after credit market turmoil in May which had largely shut down the market for new borrowing. But overseas investors remained wary of US stock markets. Foreigners bought a net $0.1bn of US stocks which took the three-month rolling average to just $1.7bn, the lowest in eight months. "That they're buying bonds and not stocks has to be a bit of a concern," said Mr Callow. "It suggests investors are happy to take fixed coupon payments on bonds but not convinced enough to bet on equity market appreciation."

-cut-

American investors diversified away from the US at the fastest rate in 10 years, even as foreign buyers stepped up their purchases of US assets, data released on Monday suggested.

more...

[spotbird]

13. That doesn't make sense,

but none of what goes on anymore makes sense. I feel like I'm living in the Twlight Zone.

[punpirate]

22. Seems to make sense to me...

... just looking at overall market averages for the last several years, the markets are pretty well stuck in neutral, the general trend is toward lower earnings and thus higher and higher P/Es, and fuel costs are going to drive down earnings even further for businesses unrelated to oil.

There seem to be a number of other factors--housing bubble starting to collapse, for one--that would suggest playing it quite safe is the prudent thing to do. If a company goes into receivership, the stockholders end up with next to nothing and the bondholders recover most of the assets (look, for example, at Delta--it's rapidly headed into the realm of penny stocks--it may look like a real deal, but its stockholders are likely to get pranged if it does decide to go into bankruptcy).

It would seem that overseas investors need a place to put their money, but are anticipating rough times for the US economy.

Cheers.

[ewagner]

3. Kick n/t

[54anickel]

4. Asian diversification hits Treasuries

http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20050815_21670_178560.html

Foreigners did not seem too enthused by US Treasuries in June, according to data on Monday that underlined a recurring theme of recent months – fears that China's revaluation and a more general trend towards diversification might mark a turning point in Asian central bank buying of US assets.

The Treasury's monthly portfolio flow data showed overseas investors bought a net $7.9bn of US Treasuries, the lowest level since September 2003.

And foreign private accounts were net sellers of $3.3bn of Treasuries, marking the first decrease in private holdings since August 2004.

Last week an unexpectedly large fall-off in institutional and foreign demand for two of the Treasury's three big refunding sales sparked fears that foreign central banks were already curbing their buying of US government debt.

Foreign "official" accounts, such as central banks, own about 28 per cent of outstanding marketable Treasury debt, and foreign investors overall own about 53 per cent.

more...

[KoKo]

18. So....China probably owns my mortgage, now....

If the average American could understand that Bush's Debt means that the Chinese hold their mortgages it would blow their minds...

We are bringing Democracy to Iraq so that other countries can finance our home purchases. OY....:eyes:

:hi: "54"


The search for better returns has also led central banks to branch out into a wider range of products, which fits with the broader trend of asset diversification.

Dale Westhoff, head of mortgage research at Bear Stearns, says China has become a big buyer of mortgage-backed securities, which are packages of mortgage loans that offer high credit ratings, but higher yields, than government bonds.

"Treasury buying was the dominant theme up until 2000, when the budgetsurplus meant there were simply less Treasuries around so they startedto branch out," says Mr Westhoff.

[54anickel]

5. U.S. July Consumer Prices Rise 0.5%; Core Rate Rises 0.1%

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aYOLnexWgl4o&refer=home

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.5 percent in July, the most in three months, paced by surging fuel costs, a government report showed. Excluding energy and food, the increase was less than expected, signaling fuel costs have yet to stoke inflation.

The rise in the consumer price index followed no change in June, the Labor Department said today in Washington. So-called core prices rose 0.1 percent for a third month, limited by the biggest drop in new vehicle prices in three decades. Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG joined General Motors Corp. in offering employee discounts to all buyers.

Such discounting won't be enough to keep Federal Reserve policy makers from raising interest rates, economists said. Fuel prices have continued to rise to new highs this month, evidence of what the central bankers last week called ``elevated'' inflation pressures in the economy.

``We are getting some but not a whole lot of core inflation,'' said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, before the report. Vitner correctly forecast the rise in core prices. ``The Fed is likely to keep tightening at each meeting this year. What they are trying to do is keep inflation from becoming a problem.''

snip>

Workers' earnings adjusted for inflation declined 0.2 percent in July, the fourth drop in the last six months, after a 0.3 percent rise in June, the Labor Department said in a separate release. The June decrease suggests consumers have less spending power.

more...

[54anickel]

6. U.S. Housing Starts Fall to 2.042 Million Annual Pace in July

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aO.qiWMprF98&refer=home

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. housing starts fell 0.1 percent in July from a four-month high in June, remaining at a level that suggests sales are improving as jobs increase and builders step up construction on a backlog of homes waiting to be built.

Builders broke ground on 2.042 million housing units at an annual rate in July compared with a revised 2.045 million the month before, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose to a 2.167 million annual rate, the highest in 32 years.

Increased hiring, rising incomes and mortgage rates within half a percentage point of 40-year lows in June and July helped bring new buyers into the market, economists said. Backlogs higher than a year ago suggest builders such as Pulte Homes Inc., whose order book rose 17 percent in the last year, will have plenty of work in coming months, fueling economic growth.

``There are a lot of homes just waiting to be started,'' said Tim Rogers, chief economist for Briefing.com, an economic research company in Boston. ``Sales are still booming.''

snip>

The rate of permits has been outpacing that of starts since March, suggesting either that companies are not able to build homes as fast as the market demands or that builders are cautious about starting homes that have been authorized though not yet ordered, economists said.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Home Prices Surge 13.6% in Quarter

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/16/business/16homes.html

United States home prices surged 13.6 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in more than a quarter of a century, as a decline in interest rates fueled record sales.

The median price of an existing single-family home rose to $208,500 from $183,500 a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said in a report released yesterday. It was the biggest jump since a 15.3 percent gain in the third quarter of 1979. Sales of existing houses and condominiums gained 4.6 percent to an annualized pace of 7.22 million units, the highest ever.

"The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains," David Lereah, the group's chief economist, said in the report. "There is no evidence of bubbles popping."

Prices and sales will probably cool next year, the group said in a forecast on Aug. 9. Prices of existing homes are likely to rise 5.2 percent in 2006 while sales will probably drop 3.6 percent. Sales currently are "close to a peak," Mr. Lereah said in the forecast.

more...

[54anickel]

7. 9:42 and their off & down

Dow 10,607.39 -26.99 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,157.43 -9.61 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,230.90 -2.97 (-0.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.239% -0.03
30-yr Bond 4.433% -0.04
NYSE Volume 101,039,000
Nasdaq Volume 111,364,000

9:18AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade holds relatively steady, still indicating a lower open for the indices, following more economic data... July industrial production rose 0.1%, below an expected 0.5% rise as June's figure of 0.9% was revised to 0.8%, while capacity utilization fell to 79.7%, below the potentially dangerous 80% level historically consistent with bottlenecks and rising pricing pressures... Bonds, meanwhile, have extended early gains amid the tame inflation read, as the 10-yr note is now up 9 ticks to yield 4.24%
9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Even though low inflation, another pullback in oil prices and falling bond yields provide a good mix for the financial markets, investors remain on the sidelines in the early going as futures indications trade below fair value... Perhaps stalling follow-through buying interest have been earnings disappointments (i.e. DE and TJX) and a slew of analyst downgrades on Gateway (GTW) following downside FY05 guidance ahead of more economic data...

July industrial production (consensus +0.5%) and capacity utilization (consensus 80.3%) will be released at 9:15 ET

8:35AM : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still suggesting a rather subdued start for equities... Total CPI rose 0.5%, the most in three months, but core CPI rose just 0.1%, below expectations, suggesting a mixed read on inflation... Bonds, which were up slightly ahead of the data, have also held relatively steady, as the 10-yr note is up 2 ticks to yield 4.27%...

Also out, July housing starts fell 0.1% to 2.042 mln units, slightly above expectations of 2.025 mln, while July building permits rose 1.6% to 2.167 mln units (consensus 2.104 mln)

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lackluster open for the cash market as investors digest mixed earnings reports ahead of key economic data... Home Depot (HD) has beaten estimates by $0.03 and boosted FY05 EPS growth guidance to 14-17% while Wal-Mart (WMT) has also posted strong Q2 earnings but issued downside Q3 EPS guidance...

Meanwhile, the latest reads on inflation - July CPI (consensus +0.4%) and core CPI (consensus +0.2%) - along with July housing starts (consensus 2025K) and July building permits (consensus 2104K) should set a more definitive tone to trading when released at 8:30 ET

[54anickel]

8. Daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i

Last trade 87.60 Change +0.28 (+0.32%)

Settle 87.32 Settle Time 23:35

Open 87.55 Previous Close 87.32

High 87.72 Low 87.27

The September Dollar steady to higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week’s decline and is trading above broken support marked by the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 87.16. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If the Dollar extends the decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 86.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.



Dollar Strengthens, Looks for Added Lift
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

The US dollar continues to strengthen against the major currency pairs following yesterday’s better than expected influx of foreign capital, which topped out at $71.2 billion for June. Today brings with it a plethora of data to which dollar bulls will look for help in sustaining the current rebound.

Of immediate concern is the consumer price index, which is expected to show an increase in inflation of 0.4% (M/M) in July from 0.0% in June. Given the recent surge in gasoline prices and the obvious affect they have on consumer prices, however, the market will be more focused on core inflation (excluding food and energy), which is projected to rise 0.2% from 0.1%. If correct, this would raise the annual core inflation rate to 2.2%, which, although it remains above the Fed’s target of 2.0%, is still equal to this year’s average.

The effects on the dollar, however may be muted, because the Fed appears to holding firm to its current policy of continuing to raise interest rates at a measured pace, despite what the current inflation data tells us. In fact, in the Fed’s August 9th statement following their meeting in which they increased rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%, the Fed admitted that “core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.” However, they went on to state that “pressures on inflation have stayed elevated.” Of course, if both headline and core inflation increase at a greater pace than expected, the dollar could advance as the market begins to ponder the possibility that the Fed may abandon its “measured” pace for a more accelerated one.

Additional insight into the health of the US economy comes in the form of industrial production and capacity utilization. Although industrial production in July is expected to drop off from June’s 0.9% increase (which was the largest since February 2004) to 0.5%, this would still be well above last year’s average increase of 0.3% as well as that for this year, which stands at 0.1%. Capacity utilization is forecasted to increase to 80.3 in July from 80.0, which would be its highest level since December 2000.

Although changes in consumer prices may not drastically affect the Fed’s current monetary policy, Greenspan and his colleagues will be closely monitoring the frothiness of the housing market, looking for any potential bubbles that may occur. To that end, today’s release of housing starts and building permits will shed some more light on the current situation. Building permits are expected to cool slightly to 2.110 million in July from 2.111 million in June, while housing starts look to remain robust, increasing to 2.023 million from 2.004 million.

[converted_democrat]

10. A question......

I need to know if it is possible to look up on a daily basis what stocks are being "shorted." Is it possible, and if it is, where would I need to go to look it up? If anyone could just point me in the right direction I would really appreciate it. Thank you.

[ozymandius]

19. I might suggest something of a short-cut.

Though I have not explored how one would track this data - watching the hedge funds' direction can be a sharp indicator of developing trends. If you find where hedge funds can be tracked I would appreciate you letting me know.

Funny thing about hedge funds: they are betting funds. Much money was made prior to 9/11 through hedge fund betting on which "short" direction airline stocks would take.

[converted_democrat]

21. Thank you Ozy!!

I'm going to start looking right now. If I find anything, you'll be the first to know.

[ozymandius]

34. Thanks a bunch.

I appreciate it.

:hi:

[54anickel]

11. The Greenspan Uncertainty Principle

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mauldin/mauldin081305.html


snip>

Why would someone be willing to pay less for long term money than what they could get simply by investing in a money market? Because they have a belief that short term rates are going to go down and probably drag long term rates down as well. They "buy" the long term rates thinking that they may not get another chance to get the long term rates at the current level for quite some time. In essence, they are timing the bond market and making a prediction about the future direction of interest rates.

Why would they think short term and long term rates are going to drop? Because they think the economy is going to slow down or go into recession. If the economy goes into recession, they believe the Fed will react by lowering short term rates, and long term rates normally drop because of the recession. That goes double in a world where deflation is a dominant theme.

Of course, when short term rates rise above long term rates, this is not good for banks. They have to "pay" for money by giving interest and charging more for their loans. When short term money goes above long term money, it puts a squeeze on their profits. They also tend to lend less money and become more conservative, which puts a crimp on business in general.

There are some very smart people who believe the yield curve is no longer a potential indictor of recession, including apparently Sir Alan Greenspan.

Let me quote at length from an article entitled "An Obituary to the Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator" by those clever analysts from GaveKal. (Please note that the word adequation is primarily a term used in French and means: The act of equalizing; act or result of making adequate; an equivalent. In their context it more or less means correlation.)

more...

[54anickel]

12. CDO deals this year may top $800bn

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/514a3a2e-0db3-11da-aa67-00000e2511c8.html

The global market for collateralised debt obligations – complex repackaged pools of bonds, loans and other debt-related instruments – could be dramatically higher than most investment banks have indicated, an independent industry consultant has estimated.

In particular, if all the so-called “synthetic” products – or derivatives-related deals – are included, the total market could reach $800bn or more this year, according to Janet Tavakoli, an industry consultant.

Although the figures only represent a rough calculation, they are likely to be closely watched by regulators and bankers. The CDO market has attracted attention because of its rapid growth and the losses incurred by some hedge funds and investment banks on CDO instruments during May’s credit market turmoil.

snip>

For regulators and analysts trying to quantify credit risk, however, there is another problem.

When an investment bank arranges a bespoke CDO for a customer, the investor typically buys a single slice, or tranche, of the instrument. Often, this is the least risky tranche, leaving the arranger holding the remainder.

Investment banks tend to reveal only how much of such CDOs they have sold, according to Ms Tavakoli, an amount that could be 10 per cent or less of the total notional amount of the instruments.

more...

[54anickel]

14. Big Rise in Corporate Taxes Is Predicted to Reduce Deficit

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/16/politics/16budget.html

WASHINGTON, Aug. 15 - The Congressional Budget Office said Monday that the federal budget deficit would decline 20 percent this year because of an unexpected surge in corporate income tax payments, but it discerned no improvement in the long-term fiscal outlook for the next decade.

snip>

The current fiscal year ends in seven weeks, so the latest estimates for 2005 are considered highly reliable. The budget office predicts that the deficit will be $314 billion in 2006 and will remain above $300 billion a year through 2010.

To finance the deficit, the Treasury borrows money from the public. Debt held by the public will total $4.6 trillion this year, up from $4.3 trillion last year, and will climb to $6.3 trillion in 2010, the budget office said.

The new report documents two trends: growth in federal spending for individual benefits, driven by the aging of the population, and an expectation that the government will rely more on individual income taxes and less on corporate taxes.

more...

[54anickel]

15. U.S. Budget Making Is Political Farce:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aBC53qrenvzA

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Budget making in Washington has become a continuous political farce of let's pretend.

Pretend that new legislation is going to cost a set amount and not a penny more.

Pretend that the cost of yet one more tax cut or new spending program is OK because some other spending can be cut to offset it.

Pretend that every dollar being spent is worth it because it will create jobs.

Pretend that no tax can ever be raised because it would dangerously damage economic growth.

The result is a steady diet of large budget deficits, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reminded everyone yesterday in one of its regular updates of the budget and economic outlook.

more...

[Tempest]

26. A temporary surge in corporate tax payments

The rise in corporate tax payments are from a one-time tax amnesty on foreign profits brought back into the U.S.

A temporary surge will will be short-lived.

[54anickel]

16. 4 Ex-Brokers Are Accused of Conspiracy

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/16/business/16squawk.html

Four former stockbrokers at major securities firms were accused yesterday of conspiring with day traders who wanted to eavesdrop on customer order information to make easy profits.

In separate actions yesterday, the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission contended that day traders paid thousands of dollars to the four brokers - who worked at Citigroup, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch - for access to their so-called squawk box intercoms, which broadcast their biggest customers' stock orders. The traders, in turn, used that information to buy those stocks before the large orders bid up the price, and quickly sold them for hundreds of thousands of dollars in gains.

snip>

According to the S.E.C.'s complaint, the A. B. Watley investors traded quickly more than 400 times after hearing live orders from telephone receivers placed next to the Citigroup, Merrill and Lehman squawk boxes. After learning that institutional investors planned to buy heavily in companies like Commerce Bancorp and EMC, they made similar decisions and landed a windfall, the complaint said. The day traders made at least $650,000 in profits, the S.E.C. charged.

The four brokers, according to the S.E.C. complaint, personally profited from the more than $310,000 in commissions generated from the trades. In addition, the S.E.C. complaint said, "Amore and the day traders that he employed at Watley made secret cash payments to Casbarro and Mahaffy for providing access to their firms' squawk box."

more...

[JNelson6563]

17. 10:58 snapshot

Dow 10,560.66 -73.72 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,146.97 -20.07 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,225.78 -8.09 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223% -0.05


A bloody day in the making.

Julie

[ozymandius]

20. 11:16 and ugliness continues

Dow 10,565.36 -69.02 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq 2,149.03 -18.01 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,226.56 -7.31 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 42.13 -0.57 (-1.33%)
NYSE Volume 585,617,000
Nasdaq Volume 523,449,000

11:00AM: Market extends its reach into negative territory as oil prices touch fresh session highs... Crude oil futures ($66.65/bbl +$0.38), which had consolidated for a second straight day amid speculation of a 13th consecutive build in distillates tomorrow morning, have found renewed buying interest within the last hour... The rebound in the commodity has weakened overall sentiment as rising oil - the likes of which caused Wal-Mart (WMT 47.44 -1.66) to lower its Q3 earnings outlook - eats into consumers' discretionary spending... NYSE Adv/Dec 1040/1925, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 720/1985

[AnneD]

25. Morning Marketeers

:beer: Guess it's never to early to get a beer buzz when the market swims in the red. I can't shake the feeling that we are looking at a big correction soon (overdue I'd say) but this market is so crazy. Funny about the Americans investing in over seas assets. In my portfolio, the foreign investments are the stellar preformers. Happy hunting.....and look out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

31. good morning AnneD

It gnaws at the side of my brain how much this show is driven by cheap -or lack of cheap- oil. Too many eggs placed in one basket I'd say.

[AnneD]

38. Just think......

how different the world politics would be if we didn't rely so heavily on oil....sigh. I think about it often. We had the chance to change with the arab oil embargo, but never had the will. I hope we are getting the resolve to make a change...... Well, maybe not, Bush got in to office for a second time.

[54anickel]

23. Soros fund sheds energy stocks (In June!)

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/16/markets/soros.reut/index.htm

Total value of fund's listed holdings dropped 22%; Altria, Citigroup and Dodge also removed.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An investment fund controlled by billionaire George Soros unloaded energy stocks in the quarter ended June 30 as the total value of its listed holdings declined 22 percent.

About $100 million in energy stocks that were listed at the end of the previous quarter were absent from a filing made with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday by Soros Fund Management LLC.

The disclosure, filed on form 13F, does not reveal whether the shares were sold or removed from the listing for some other reason. :shrug: What other reason could their be - you either have it or you don't?

Removed were shares of ConocoPhillips (down $0.78 to $65.84, Research), Exxon Mobil Corp. (down $0.63 to $60.42, Research), Schlumberger Ltd. (down $0.85 to $85.17, Research), Valero Energy Corp. (up $0.05 to $93.85, Research), Suncor Energy Inc. (down $1.54 to $56.96, Research), Sunoco Inc. (down $0.22 to $65.50, Research) and XTO Energy Inc. (down $0.80 to $37.08, Research)

The fund continued to list a position in Chevron Corp. and a small portion of its ConocoPhillips stake as of June 30.

more...

[Mojorabbit]

40. This absolutely

makes no sense. Why would he dump his energy shares?

[54anickel]

24. Are Politics about to get Interesting in Japan?

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

It has been right many years to be cynical about Japanese politics. We ourselves have long commented on the uneasy melding of an increasingly sophisticated first world economic system and standard of living with an unresponsive third world political system mired in corruption, deceit and public non-accountability. The hope must surely be that this election will constitute another step toward normalising the Japanese polity, driving it further away from Third World style political nepotism and corruption.



In this regard, post office privatisation is undoubtedly important. With its trillions of yen in assets, the post office has long been at the heart of the “iron triangle” between businessmen, politicians and bureaucrats - perhaps the defining characteristic of Japanese politics since the end of the Second World War. For the postal-savings system, and the Fiscal Investment and Loan Programme (FILP) which the deposits held within it financed, represented the epicentre of post-1945 LDP pork-barrel politics in particular.



On the other hand, it’s not the important only issue for the Japanese people. There is the broader question of Japan’s symbiotic relationship with Washington (which has been intimately tied up with the latter’s economy, given the sheer size of Japan’s US dollar holdings). Yet seldom have Japanese voters questioned how, or been given the opportunity to query, why Japan has effectively ceded so much management of its monetary and financial affairs to Washington, why it has articulated few foreign policy decisions without Washington’s active approval, or even why it continues to support American aims even when they apparently run counter to national interests?



By way of example, consider that Japan’s net foreign assets, most of which represent claims on the US, is estimated by many market observers to be on the order of 50 per cent of American net foreign debt. This ratio has fallen in the last ten years because even Japan’s seemingly endless ability to keep accumulating American assets has not matched Washington’s insatiable ability to create yet more IOUs. Perpetually accommodating the latter’s financial profligacy, Japan today is faced with the invidious choice of writing down over $1 trillion in foreign exchange assets (by refusing to buy more Treasuries and thereby causing a dollar crash) or continuing with the status quo in the forlorn hopes that the US will one day get its economic house in order. While deferring this Hobson’s choice, its policy makers remain locked into some sort of symbiotic “death embrace” with Washington. Surely, this is an area ripe for public discussion, but it has hardly been broached thus far on the campaign trail.

The issue of Japan’s economic policy has broader global implications, as Professor Richard Duncan noted when he made the startling observation that in 2003 and the first quarter of 2004, monetary authorities in Japan created 35 trillion yen:

more...

[hang a left]

27. I was wondering if one of you market pros can help me out here.

Does anyone know where I can find out the performance of the S&P500 over the last 5 years on a monthly basis. Any links or resources you may know of would be very helpful.

Thank you kindly!!

:hi:

[ozymandius]

30. go here

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC

[hang a left]

32. Thanks Ozy Man!!

That is exactly what I was looking for.

:-)

[ozymandius]

33. You're welcome.

:hi:

[loudsue]

28. Kickin' it!

Up you go!

:kick::kick::kick:

[ozymandius]

29. 12:28

Dow 10,554.91 -79.47 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 2,149.08 -17.96 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,225.37 -8.50 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 42.04 -0.66 (-1.55%)
NYSE Volume 843,294,000
Nasdaq Volume 745,714,000

12:00PM: Market continues to languish near session lows midday as a disappointing outlook from Wal-Mart and oil prices near record levels offset tame inflation data and plummeting bond yields... Even though Wal-Mart (WMT 47.24 -1.86) beat analysts' Q2 forecasts by $0.02, lowered Q3 EPS guidance due in large part to record gas prices has weighed heavily on blue chips... To that end, crude oil futures trading above $66/bbl ahead of tomorrow's weekly inventories report continue to play havoc with stocks across the board, overshadowing another favorable read on inflation...

Total July CPI rose 0.5%, the most in three months and above an expected 0.4% rise; but the more widely watched core-CPI rate, which excludes volatile energy prices, rose just 0.1% for the third consecutive month, providing further confirmation that the recent slowdown in core inflation is not an aberration... Of the nine economic sectors trading lower, Consumer Discretionary has paced the way to the downside...

Sure, Home Depot (HD 40.99 -0.62) posted better than expected Q2 earnings and raised FY05 EPS growth guidance to 14-17%, but widespread consolidation throughout Retail (-1.8%) following Wal-Mart's discouraging guidance and weakness in Homebuilding continues to weigh on the sector... Homebuilders have been in focus after July housing starts checked in above forecasts at 2.041 mln units while housing permits rose 1.6% to a very strong 2.167 mln annual rate, suggesting starts will stay strong in the months ahead... Technology has lost ground after capacity constraints prompted RBC to lower FY05 estimates on Intel (INTC 26.06 -0.47)...

[ozymandius]

35. July Inflation Jumps on Higher Gas Prices

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer prices shot up in July, reflecting higher prices for gasoline and other energy products while output at the nations' factories, mines and utilities slowed sharply.

The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose just 0.1 percent last, the weakest showing in three months. Output increases at factories and utilities slowed after big gains in June while mining output actually fell.

The overall increase was below what economists had been expecting but they are still looking for solid gains for the rest of the year as factories boost production to restock depleted store inventories.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that its closely watched Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent in July, the biggest increase in three months. In July, overall inflation was driven higher by a big 3.8 percent jump in energy costs.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050816/economy.html?.v=11

[ozymandius]

36. Crude Oil Prices Waver Above $66 a Barrel

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) -- Crude oil futures seesawed Tuesday, as investors took profits following last week's powerful rally, but fears lingered over supply after U.S. refinery breakdowns.

In midday trading, light sweet crude for September delivery was 2 cents lower at $66.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as low as $65.50 and as high as $66.85 earlier Tuesday. On Friday, the contract had peaked at $67.10 per barrel.

-cut-

On London's International Petroleum Exchange, September Brent futures were up 27 cents at $65.85 a barrel. The front-month contract will expire at the close of trade Tuesday.

The concern over U.S. refinery glitches remains on people's minds, analysts said.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050816/oil_prices.html?.v=14

[ozymandius]

37. from Brad DeLong

Real Forecasts of Bush Budget Deficits

The Concord Coalition acts like itself, and produces an estimate of the budget deficits we really expect Bush administration policies to produce:



http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/08/real_forecasts_.html

[54anickel]

39. How Bush would gain from war with Iran

http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5262493-103677,00.html

snip>

A US attack is unlikely to be confined to the suspected WMD locations or to involve a ground invasion to occupy the country. The strikes would probably be intended to destroy military, political and (oil excepted) economic infrastructure. A disabled Iran could be further paralysed by civil war. Tehran alleges US support for separatists in the large Azeri population of the north-west, and fighting is increasing in Iranian Kurdistan.

The possible negative consequences of an attack on Iran are well known: an increase in terrorism; a Shia rising in Iraq; Hizbullah and Iranian attacks on Israel; attacks on oil facilities along the Gulf and a recession caused by rising oil prices. Advocates of war argue that if Iran is allowed to go nuclear then each of these threats to US and Israeli interests becomes far greater. In this logic, any negative consequence becomes a further reason to attack now - with Iran disabled all these threats can, it is argued, be reduced.

Iraq is proving an electoral liability. This is a threat to the Bush team's intention to retain power for the next decade - perhaps, as the author Bob Woodward says, with President Cheney at the helm. War with Iran next spring can enable them to win the mid-term elections and retain control of the Republican party, now in partial rebellion over Iraq.

The rise in oil prices and subsequent recession are reasons some doubt that an attack would take place. However, Iran's supplies are destined for China - perceived as the US's main long-term rival. And the Bush team are experienced enough to remember that Ronald Reagan rode out the recession of the early 1980s on a wave of rhetoric about "evil empire".

more...

[ozymandius]

41. For drivers, shock to subtle shifts

A handful of service stations in California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington state and Hawaii have begun selling self-serve unleaded regular gasoline for - gulp - $3 or more a gallon. Truckers are enduring three-buck diesel fuel in some places.

With oil prices continuing to climb - worries about refinery outages pushed oil to trade at a record $67.10 a barrel last week before it dropped back to $66.27 Monday - $3 gas is a trend that could eventually spread.

-cut-

Leading the gas price parade are the stations selling unleaded regular for $2.999 and up - 19 of them out of 92,792 in a daily survey by GasBuddy.com, a Web site that tracks gas prices daily using reports from consumers. Metro areas where motorists may stumble upon the most expensive self-serve regular in the country include Chicago, Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego and the Hawaiian island of Maui.

-cut-

"Three dollars is the new two dollars," says AAA spokesman Mantill Williams. "Before, the prevailing wisdom was that once it reached $2 a gallon, people would dramatically alter their behavior. ... But what we found is that it didn't turn out to be the case."

more...

[TrogL]

42. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Up-to-the-minute graph (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDY&v=i)

Current TSE:




2005-07-15 Friday, July 15 0.819269 USD
2005-07-18 Monday, July 18 0.822774 USD
2005-07-19 Tuesday, July 19 0.820614 USD
2005-07-20 Wednesday, July 20 0.818465 USD
2005-07-21 Thursday, July 21 0.82122 USD
2005-07-22 Friday, July 22 0.821018 USD
2005-07-25 Monday, July 25 0.820075 USD
2005-07-26 Tuesday, July 26 0.813603 USD
2005-07-27 Wednesday, July 27 0.810307 USD
2005-07-28 Thursday, July 28 0.810045 USD
2005-07-29 Friday, July 29 0.81586 USD
2005-08-01 Monday, August 1 0.823995 USD
2005-08-02 Tuesday, August 2 0.824946 USD
2005-08-03 Wednesday, August 3 0.824538 USD
2005-08-04 Thursday, August 4 0.825151 USD
2005-08-05 Friday, August 5 0.820681 USD
2005-08-08 Monday, August 8 0.824266 USD
2005-08-09 Tuesday, August 9 0.823723 USD
2005-08-10 Wednesday, August 10 0.825559 USD
2005-08-11 Thursday, August 11 0.831601 USD
2005-08-12 Friday, August 12 0.8371 USD
2005-08-15 Monday, August 15 0.835561 USD




I was reading an article over the weekend saying that investors are becoming very interested in the Loonie, some even going so far as to say "dump your greenbacks and buy loonies". The loonie appears to be the currency of the moment not because it's being considered a petro-dollar but because of Canada's strong and diverse economy.

[ozymandius]

43. 1:32 numbers

Dow 10,560.18 -74.20 (-0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,148.64 -18.40 (-0.85%)
S&P 500 1,225.60 -8.27 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% -0.06
NYSE Volume 1,022,608,000
Nasdaq Volume 892,550,000

1:00PM: Stocks show little vigor in the last half hour as market breadth remains firmly bearish... As reflected in the A/D line, decliners outpace advancers by a more than 2 to 1 margin at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq while a nearly 3-to-1 ratio of down to up volume suggests an even more negative tone to trading... Adding to today's struggles have been the indices' inability to find initial support near key technical levels of 10620, 1232 and 2160 on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, respectively... NYSE Adv/Dec 1002/2147, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 826/2086

[ozymandius]

44. it just got redder

2:18
Dow 10,539.35 -95.03 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,142.94 -24.10 (-1.11%)
S&P 500 1,223.17 -10.70 (-0.87%)
10-Yr Bond 42.23 -0.47 (-1.10%)
NYSE Volume 1,174,641,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,022,080,000

1:30PM: Little changed in the overall tone of the proceedings, as sellers remain in control of the action... The dollar, however, has traded higher against the euro (1.2336) for the third consecutive session, getting a boost as better than expected economic data prompted additional consolidation in other major currencies... To that end, the dollar trading near its best levels of the session continues to weigh on an already depressed Materials sector, as dollar-denominated assets such as metals and oil become less attractive... NYSE Adv/Dec 998/2178, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 846/2071

[ozymandius]

45. little improvement

2:46
Dow 10,552.70 -81.68 (-0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,144.92 -22.12 (-1.02%)
S&P 500 1,224.70 -9.17 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 42.19 -0.51 (-1.19%)
NYSE Volume 1,281,999,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,098,022,00

2:30PM: Even as oil prices slip to session lows heading into the close of trading for commodities, renewed selling interest in equities has sent the indices to their worst levels of the day... While Wal-Mart's (WMT 47.27 -1.83) weakness provides the bulk of the selling pressure among blue chips, accounting for about 13 points of the Dow's 92-point decline, losses of more than 1.0% from 12 other components have also weighed heavily on price-weighted index... One stock in particular has been Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 23.76 -0.33), which tonight will be the last Dow component to report quarterly results...

It may be worth noting that the Dow, even in the face of a 7.0% surge in oil prices over the last five weeks, has held onto a gain of 2.2% since Alcoa (AA 28.91 -0.33) kicked off earnings season on July 7th...NYSE Adv/Dec 1015/2198, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 798/2177

[54anickel]

46. Bear Market Rally

http://www.forbes.com/home/free_forbes/2005/0815/104.html

There are good reasons to believe that the two-year bull market of 2003 and 2004 was nothing but a brief countertrend in the post-2000 slump in stock prices.

Much to the frustration of the bulls, stocks have gone nowhere this year. They consider the 2000-02 bear raid a bad dream and believe the 1982-2000 superbull run resumed in 2003. Indeed, that year the S&P 500 index jumped 26% (not counting dividends) and a fall rally added another 9% in 2004.

Stocks seem to have a lot going for them lately: the new 15% maximum tax rate on dividends and capital gains and the strong economy. Real gross domestic product grew at a 3.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the eighth consecutive quarter it has exceeded the 3% long-term trend. The unemployment rate dropped to 5% in June from 6.3% two years earlier.

Also, low Treasury yields make bonds less competitive with stocks. Plus investors aren't scared, as witnessed by the low level of market volatility and their shrugging off $60 crude oil and the July 7 London terrorist attacks.

Nevertheless, a number of forces have offset these positives and make the stock outlook grim. The economic expansion is in its 44th month and getting old. By my reckoning, the average length of an expansion since the early 1950s is 42 months. Energy prices are a big tax that will further depress economic growth as Americans realize they're not temporary. By my firm's analysis, per-barrel oil costs of $60 versus $20 transfer 1.5% of U.S. GDP to foreign energy producers.

more...

[ozymandius]

48. grim indeed - by these numbers

3:26
Dow 10,527.64 -106.74 (-1.00%)
Nasdaq 2,139.05 -27.99 (-1.29%)
S&P 500 1,221.08 -12.79 (-1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 42.27 -0.43 (-1.01%)
NYSE Volume 1,467,295,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,248,472,000

3:00PM: Major indices again back off session lows but recovery efforts appear to be modest at best, as the lack of sector leadership continues to dictate late-day action... Still providing the bulk of downside pressure is Technology, as evidenced by a 1.0% decline on the Nasdaq... Fortunately for the bulls, benchmark yields closing near session lows (4.22%) have kept Financial - the most influential economic sector as it accounts for roughly 20% of the weighting on the S&P - relatively unchanged on the day... NYSE Adv/Dec 1038/2223, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 880/2108

[54anickel]

49. Yikes!!! Wonder if we'll see below 10,500 this week...eom

[ozymandius]

52. getting closer

just before the close...

3:56
Dow 10,518.88 -115.50 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq 2,138.15 -28.89 (-1.33%)
S&P 500 1,219.95 -13.92 (-1.13%)
10-Yr Bond 42.27 -0.43 (-1.01%)
NYSE Volume 1,685,839,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,442,756,000

3:30PM: Selling remains the name of the game going into the close as a widespread negative tone continues to weigh on equities... Of the 139 S&P groups, Construction & Farming (-4.3%) remains the worst performing index, led by DE (-11.5%) and CAT (-2.9%), while three of next poorest performing groups - Dept Stores (-3.2%), Apparel Retail (-2.9%) and Hyper & Super Centers (-2.6%) - have all taken it on the chin after record gas prices prompted Wal-Mart (WMT 47.57 -1.53) to lower its Q3 EPS outlook...NYSE Adv/Dec 1068/2197, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 875/2118

[ozymandius]

53. You may have noticed that people are not sprinting toward treasuries. n/t

[54anickel]

56. Hmmm, so where's everyone headed today with their lil buck-a-roos?

[54anickel]

51. This number here doesn't induce warm fuzzies either

http://brillig.com/debt_clock/

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 16 Aug 2005 at 07:51:27 PM GMT is:



The estimated population of the United States is 296,765,703
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,637.45.

[54anickel]

47. Delta higher after regional sale, filing (Fire Sale?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B248742D4-0454-4FAB-A111-959D4B310401%7D&siteid=google

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Delta Air Lines eased off previous highs Tuesday after the struggling airline announced a deal to raise some much-needed cash through the sale of its Atlantic Southeast Airlines unit and cautioned that its financial woes were far from over.

The stock gained 3 cents, or 2.2%, to $1.42 on volume of 19.6 million shares. In the previous session, Delta shares dropped 14%.

In a regulatory filing issued Monday, Atlanta-based Delta (DAL: news, chart, profile) said its pact to sell Atlantic Southeast to SkyWest (SKYW: news, chart, profile) will allow it to pay down $100 million in debt.

Delta also said it isn't likely to get further debt financing because of its low credit rating and already-pledged assets. Its operating cash flow won't be enough to meet the company's liquidity needs for the rest of the year, either.

Analysts expressed fresh concern about Delta's outlook, given what the airline indicated in the filing about its fragile liquidity position. Since 2000, Delta's debt load has more than doubled to $14.1 billion.

more...

[54anickel]

50. President came to bury Social Security (Krugman)

Krugman must really be hitting a nerve these days. Google turns up an awful lot of anti-krugman articles. :evilgrin:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/236642_krugman16.html

snip>

Many pundits and editorial boards still give Bush credit for trying to "reform" Social Security. In fact, Bush came to bury Social Security, not to save it. Over time, the Bush plan would have transformed Social Security from a social insurance program into a mutual fund, with nothing except a name in common with the system FDR created.

In addition to misrepresenting his goals, Bush repeatedly lied about the current system. Oh, I'm sorry -- was that a rude thing to say? Still, the fact is that Bush repeatedly said things that were demonstrably false and that his staff must have known were false. The falsehoods ranged from his claim that Social Security is unfair to African Americans to his claim that "waiting just one year adds $600 billion to the cost of fixing Social Security."

snip>

Now, it turns out that an article on the Social Security Administration's Web site, "Life Expectancy for Social Security," specifically rejects the idea the Social Security was originally "designed in such a way that few people would collect the benefits," and the related idea that the system faces problems from "a supposed dramatic increase in life expectancy in recent years."

And the current number of older Americans as a share of the population is just about what the founders of Social Security expected. The 1934 report of FDR's Commission on Economic Security, which laid the groundwork for the Social Security Act, projected that 12.7 percent of Americans would be 65 or older by the year 2000. The actual number was 12.4 percent.

more...

[Roland99]

54. As Cronkite said: "And that's the way it is."

DJIA 10,513.50 -120.90
Nasdaq 2,137.06 -29.98
S&P 500 1,219.34 -14.53
Russell 2000 654.61 -11.03
CBOE Volatility 13.52 1.26
30 Yr Bond 4.43 -0.04
10 Yr Bond 4.23 -0.04

[54anickel]

55. AUTUMN MELT-DOWN

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin081405.html

De-leveraging the System

"The Federal Reserve deliberately leverages the system -- every cycle seems to get more brazen and dangerous. Fed pump-and-dump operations resemble those of a boiler room penny stock operation -- cram a bunch of leverage (excess credit in the Fed's case) into financial markets, entice investors into excessive long positions in the targeted market (penny stocks for boiler rooms, bonds and equities for those who follow the Fed), push the bubble as far as it can go -- then watch from a distance (and deny responsibility) when inevitably, it all goes up in smoke.

The Fed seems to do one of these pump-and-dump operations about every four years. The last was the 2003 51/2% FED Funds drop to 45 year lows of 1%. Previously was the 1999 Y2K credit expansion, which inflated the early 2000 Nasdaq bubble and led to the subsequent crash. The major one before that was the 1992-93 credit expansion, which culminated in the 1994 global bond market debacle. The process of leveraging up the system sends out a signal -- go forth and speculate. Buy stocks, bonds and houses, build buildings, leverage up your holdings. Take no thought for tomorrow. We are in a NEW PARADIGM. Swing for the fences. At some point, the leveraged Ponzi scheme collapses -- either as a result of a Fed tightening -- or it simply topples from its own dead weight of poor ill advised investments (malinvestments). Investment Balloons like trees can't grow to the sky.

Both the Bond and stock Markets, the Real Estate and Commodity markets as well as the Economy are approaching that point. Even though long term interest have fallen and have only recently started to turn around since the FED started tightening over a year ago, it will indubitably be too much Fed tightening that once again upsets the apple cart. There used to be a rule "three steps up and a stumble" well we just had our 10th rate increase and there is increasing evidence of the beginning of involuntary de-leveraging. (The reason that its taking more than three steps before the stumble is because up until this week we were in negative interest rate territory) Remember Money created out of thin air is not Real Capital. When a loan made out of thin air money is repaid it does not go back to the original saver, it just disappears ( gets wiped off the books) and the money supply shrinks.

snip>

So the process of leveraging up the system has run its course and the involuntary de-leveraging is underway but de-leveragings are not low-volatility events -- financial market dislocation is likely to begin sometime in the third quarter or certainly no later than the first quarter of 2006. Ii is likely. that the Manipulated Earnings reporting season is keeping a bid under stocks for now, but the news should be mostly downhill from here. Reported S&P500 earnings growth is at a 50 year highs-- But Comparisons should be much harder from here on in… the profit cycle is probably topping. Overvaluation is still a huge issue -- the S&P500 P/E ratio is still 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above its long term average. That may seem cheap (down from 4 standard deviations in 2000), but the bubble era warped the concept of value. John Templeton says to "buy at a point of maximum pessimism and sell at a point of maximum optimism". For the current cycle -- We are definitely at or near an all time highs in Optimism. That's certainly a lot to stew over. But the big point is that the monetary system itself is now contracting liquidity -- right at the point when the majority feels the liquidity bubble can go on indefinitely. This is how a liquidity bubble collapses under its own weight. I'm afraid that I foresee a "market dislocation" in the third quarter, which as you all know goes along with some of the things that I've been writing about lately. When majority opinion is so well-entrenched on one side, there is not room for everybody to exit gracefully.

more...

[ozymandius]

57. the bloody close

Dow 10,513.45 -120.93 (-1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,137.06 -29.98 (-1.38%)
S&P 500 1,219.34 -14.53 (-1.18%)
10-Yr Bond 42.27 -0.43 (-1.01%)
NYSE Volume 1,800,911,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,511,475,000

Close: The major averages finished near their worst levels in four weeks as discouraging guidance from Wal-Mart, spurred by historically high oil prices, overshadowed tame inflation data and the lowest bond yields seen since July, closing stocks lower across the board... Before the bell, retail stocks were in focus ahead of key earnings reports from Home Depot (HD 40.65 -0.96) and Wal-Mart (WMT 47.64 -1.46) - two of the last three Dow components to post quarterly results... Both blue chips beat analysts' Q2 expectations...

However, even though Home Depot also boosted FY05 EPS growth guidance to 14-17% (from 10-14%), a disappointing Q3 outlook from Wal-Mart, owed largely to record prices at the pump, weighed heavily on an already fragile sentiment struggling with oil prices near record levels and questions about inflation...

To that end, a higher-than-expected headline read on total CPI, which rose 0.5% - the most in three months and above an expected 0.4% increase - provided an additional sense of nervousness that seemed to eclipse the fact that, excluding volatile energy prices, core CPI rose just 0.1% for the third straight month, providing further validation that the recent slowdown in core inflation has not been an abnormality... But the damage initiated by Wal-Mart - the eighth most influential stock on the S&P 500 - was already done, as all ten economic sectors lost ground... Pacing the way lower again was Energy, as a second consecutive decline in crude oil prices ($66.08/bbl -$0.19) continued to spur consolidation in a sector that has turned in a better year-to-date performance (+31%) than all other nine sectors combined...