STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 22 March

[ozymandius]

Wednesday March 22, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1034 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1917 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1617 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1578
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 21, 2006

Dow... 11,235.47 -39.06 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq... 2,314.11 +7.63 ((+0.33%)
S&P 500... 1,297.23 -7.85 (-0.60%)
30-Year Bond 4.74% +0.04 (+0.87%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.72% +0.06 (+1.31%)
Gold future... 553.20 -2.90 (-0.52%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

-charts galore-

SUMMARY

Last week (3-10-06) we said, "The major indices remained stuck between resistance and support, while most of the technical indicators are either slightly negative or neutral. All in all, nothing really changed since last week. The equity markets remain hostage to the bond market, and unless we see a meaningful retreat in bond yields, the major indices do not have much room for maneuver. Of course, if the bond market behaved while oil prices remained below $65 per barrel, the bulls would be able to push the SP towards the 1325-1340 level. However, the key thing to remember is that the opposite could happen just as easily. One of the things that we have learned from studying the markets for nearly 20 years is this: there are times to be long, there are times to be short, and there are times to be mostly in cash. In our view, this is the time to be mostly in cash if you are a risk-averse investor. If you are a short-term trader, then pay attention to support/resistance. A close below support or above resistance will easily lead to an additional 2.5%-3% move in the same direction."

For the week of 3-20-06): Last week bond yields retreated and oil prices advanced only slightly, which gave the opportunity to the bulls to drive equity prices higher. For this week, the overall climate remains positive and it suggests that we can expect a push higher towards resistance (see table below), but that also ought to mark--at least--a short-term top. Please read also OPEX and Sentiment.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. One report today

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/17
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 4836K

[UpInArms]

33. Chicago Fed national activity index rises in Feb (marginally)

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-22T150100Z_01_CHB000151_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-CHICAGO-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, March 22 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago on Wednesday said its gauge of the U.S. economy rose in
February, buoyed mostly by strength in production indicators.

The Chicago Fed said its National Activity Index rose to
0.32 in February from 0.28 in January. January's number was
revised upward from an initially reported 0.27.

The index's three-month moving average to 0.36 from 0.55 in
January, previously reported as 0.52.

<snip>

Consumption and housing indicators made a smaller positive
impact as housing starts and building permits fell, while in
both cases staying above historical norms.

Employment indicators were neutral as a higher jobless rate
offset strong payrolls growth.

...more...

[UpInArms]

39. DOE: Petroleum Inventories Report: (unexpected decline)

10:31 AM ET 3/22/06 U.S. CRUDE SUPPLY DOWN 1.3 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31 AM ET 3/22/06 U.S. DISTILLATE SUPPLY DOWN 800,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31 AM ET 3/22/06 U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLY DOWN 2.3 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[ozymandius]

3. Crude Oil Futures Fall

SINGAPORE - Oil prices dipped Wednesday ahead of the release of a weekly U.S. government fuel inventories report later in the day expected to show a hefty increase in crude oil inventories.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 16 cents to $62.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The April contract rose 15 cents to settle and expire at $60.57 a barrel on Tuesday.

According to a survey of 10 analysts by Dow Jones Newswires, U.S. commercial oil inventories were likely to have increased by 2 million barrels in the past week.

Gasoline stocks are expected to slide an estimated 700,000 barrels, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, were seen dropping 1.9 million barrels, even as operating rates at refineries rose.

more...

[UpInArms]

65. May Crude @ $62.75 bbl - April NatGas @ $7.11 mln btus

12:19 PM ET 3/22/06 MAY CRUDE UP 41C TO $62.75/BRL AFTER EARLIER FALL TO $61.90

12:19 PM ET 3/22/06 APRIL NATURAL GAS RISES 24.2C, OR 3.5%, TO $7.11/MLN BTUS

12:19 PM ET 3/22/06 APRIL UNLEADED GASOLINE DROPS 4.65C, OR 2.5%, TO $1.793/GAL

[ozymandius]

4. China, Russia Seek More Oil Cooperation

BEIJING - Russia and China pledged Wednesday to cooperate more closely in producing oil and gas, and the Russian president vowed to go forward with a much-anticipated pipeline to carry Siberian oil to fuel China's booming economy.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced no details of the oil pipeline or its timing after meeting in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, for the fifth time in less than a year.

Putin promised on Tuesday to expand Russian energy supplies to China by opening a natural gas pipeline network within five years. But he gave no concrete details on the oil pipeline that Beijing is also eagerly seeking. Russian officials say a feasibility study must be finished before those plans are finalized.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Colgate buys Tom's of Maine

ColgatePalmolive said Tuesday that it's buying a majority stake in Tom's of Maine, the leading natural toothpaste maker, in a $100 million cash deal.

short blurb...

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/263815_tb222.html

[ozymandius]

6. Update 2: Court Makes It Harder for Investors to Sue

The Supreme Court made it harder Tuesday for investors to join forces to file high-stakes fraud lawsuits against companies.

The 8-0 decision blocks state class-action lawsuits by stockholders who contend they were tricked into holding onto declining shares.

Justice John Paul Stevens, writing for the court, said that to rule otherwise would allow "wasteful, duplicative litigation."

more...

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/03/21/ap2611286.html

[54anickel]

11. Well wtf? What happened to smaller gov't and states rights and all of

that? Here's a couple more telling snippets.

The case required the court to consider a 1995 federal law, passed over a presidential veto after Republicans took control of Congress, and a follow-up law approved three years later intended to restrict investor class-action lawsuits.

snip>

"The magnitude of the federal interest in protecting the integrity and efficient operation of the market for nationally traded securities cannot be overstated," Stevens wrote for the court.

Of the people, by the people, for the people....MY ASS!

[AnneD]

24. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: The people are still alive and kicking, the GOP just isn't listening. I spewed my coffee on the drive in this am. I listen to NPR and the were talking about the Press Conference that Bush "had" to give in his effort to shore up his sagging poll numbers. I was ok until the reporter said that Jr 'even' took a question from Helen Thomas (the reporter even add that HT considers Jr the worst prez she has ever covered). Helen prefaced her question with 'given that ...number of American soldiers have died and ....number of Iraqi civilians have died and all of the stated reasons for going to war were not true.......what was the REAL reason we went to war'. Well, I spewed my coffee and I am sure Carl Rove had to call a code brown (dark Nursing humour used to describe a very large juicy intestinal dump).

And speaking of being dumped on...gas is up 4 cents more for a grand total of 18-20 cents in 2 1/2 weeks. I met hubby for dinner at an Indian eatery. This place is usually packed-only 3 customers eating there. Bussinesses are being impacted again like before Rita. Every shopping spot I saw on the way home was the same. People are starting to cut back in Houston again.

Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

40. The anchors at one of our local stations interviewed Helen Thomas.

You could tell she was a bit perturbed with these young, local, whip-pa-snappers that think they're journalists. She was cordial, but certainly let them know they weren't asking the right questions of her before she cut loose on media complacency and control in general in her terse way. Gotta love that woman.

[AnneD]

51. She is a national treasure....

truly deserving of the Medal of Freedom.

[ozymandius]

7. GM assembles buyout offer for 70,000

General Motors and Delphi, closing in on an agreement with unions to cut costs, could offer as many as 70,000 workers incentives to retire, according to a labor analyst monitoring the talks.

The offers would be made to members of the United Auto Workers union at GM and Delphi who are eligible to retire, and workers close to retirement age, said Sean McAlinden, an analyst at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich.

Delphi, a bankrupt auto-parts maker, is a former unit of Detroit-based GM, the world's largest automaker.

GM shares rose 5.5%, or $1.15, to $22 on optimism about the accord, which would help CEO Rick Wagoner avoid bankruptcy after the company lost $10.6 billion last year.

more...

http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/401734p-340298c.html

[ozymandius]

8. Ex-Enron Treasurer: Skilling, Lay Lied

HOUSTON — Former Enron Corp. treasurer Ben Glisan Jr. traded his prison outfit for a dark business suit, blue shirt and red tie, sat unsmiling but confident in a witness chair in the federal courthouse and characterized his ex-bosses Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling as liars.

Glisan, 40, the only former Enron executive to go straight to prison after pleading guilty to a crime, was slated to return to the stand Wednesday in the fraud and conspiracy trial of the former top two titans at a company he described as having "a vast appetite for money."

Beginning his testimony late Tuesday, Glisan offered a quick overview of the financial state of Enron on Aug. 14, 2001, the day Skilling resigned as chief executive officer and less than four months before Enron filed for bankruptcy protection.

"It was weak," he said, responding to a question from federal prosecutor Kathryn Ruemmler.

more...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/3740092.html

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.78 Change +0.09 (+0.10%)

Dollar Rallies but is Inflation Really Here to Stay?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/daily-fundamentals/7474-dollar-rallies-but-is-inflation-really-here-to.html

For the second day in a row, the US dollar recuperated last week’s losses. Yesterday it was the high yielders that lost the most ground against the greenback, but today, it is the majors such as the Euro and the Japanese Yen that experienced the biggest drop. In his speech to the NY economics club last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that short term rates have the possibility of moving higher and in his view, the current shape of the yield curve does not signal an impending slowdown. Even though he did not venture far from his usual comments, the US dollar gradually lost strength throughout the Asian and European trading sessions. The larger part of today’s move however was driven by this morning’s inflation report. Even though headline producer prices fell a whopping 1.4 percent, the biggest drop in close to three years, core prices rose a more than expected 0.3 percent. This goes to show that even though energy prices have been falling, taking the pressure off food and fuel costs, second round inflation effects are clearly emerging. Despite the latest dollar rally, it is still very likely that we saw a major turn in the markets last week. Today’s inflation report gives the Federal Reserve a solid reason to raise rates at the end of the month, but should weaker headline inflation filter into core prices over the next few months, the case for 5 and 5.25 percent rates will weaken. Consumer prices released last week were far from encouraging with only a modest 0.1 percent rise for both headline and core prices. This confirms that inflation pressures could very well subside, which would suggest that the dollar’s clear bull trend throughout 2005 is finally coming to an end.

...more...

US economy could withstand sharp dlr drop-Bernanke(updated)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-22T000415Z_01_N21342616_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE-UPDATE-2.XML

WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The chronic U.S. trade gap need not fuel a "precipitous" decline in the dollar, but the economy may be able to shrug it off if it did, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday.

"Although U.S. trade deficits cannot continue to widen forever, these deficits need not engender a precipitous decline in the dollar, nor should such a decline, were it to occur, necessarily disrupt financial markets, production or employment," Bernanke said in a letter to Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat.

The shortfall in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of the nation's overseas trade, widened to a record $804.9 billion last year, or 6.4 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. Some analysts have said the widening of the trade gap could lead to a potentially damaging dollar drop.

While Bernanke downplayed those concerns, he said "the possibility of a future disruptive correction of the U.S. trade deficit cannot be ruled out."

"The best way to protect the U.S. economy from such an event is to continue policies designed to maintain the stability of the financial system and the flexibility and resilience of the economy," he added.

Bernanke noted that the U.S. Treasury secretary was the chief spokesman on U.S. policy on the dollar, but said current policy was to let markets determine the dollar's value.

"Stated U.S. policy has been generally not to intervene in currency markets except to counter disorderly market conditions," he added.

...more...

[54anickel]

14. What? My god, how far they have taken bank deregulation from

the Raygun years start. Industrial banks that are state-chartered? I'm confused, back in my old banking days, state-chartered banks were the ones without the word National or the initial NA in their titles. They were often privately owned (think George Bailey and uncle Billie), still FDIC insured, under Federal regulation, still considered banks and I think had a somewhat different clearing house system for checks.

Now we're looking at the possibility of The Bank of Walmart? :eyes:


Chopper Ben's words are interesting taken with the story on the SC ruling Ozy posted, seeing as how most of these idiots define our economy as the stock market. I'm thinking it's time to cash in your chips and head for home. They are about to stack all the decks in favor of the house.

"The best way to protect the U.S. economy from such an event is to continue policies designed to maintain the stability of the financial system and the flexibility and resilience of the economy,"

[UpInArms]

15. most alarming to me - this sentence

"Stated U.S. policy has been generally not to intervene in currency markets except to counter disorderly market conditions," he added.

What type of "intervention"?

Monetizing the debt?

Printing Dollars like mad?

Will the "deflation" spiral be similar to Japan's?

:hide:

[KoKo]

53. Does that article seem to say that Bernanke is maybe not in favor of

"Bank of Walmart?" I watched the hearings on C-Span where a Senator from Utah said he'd been working for years to allow Walmart to have it's own banking to "process" their credit card transactions. He said that it would save Walmart 30 MIL a year to do it's own check and credit transactions and that was why Walmart was trying to move into this. (In other words Walmart only wants to take control of "processing transactions" that are now done by banks who are charging them). He also said that this would help his state of Utah because they already do some of the transactions for Walmart. Bernanke kept saying that this was something Congress needed to carefully examine as to whether we wanted to get into the change in regulations that would require.


I didn't hear anymore until the article posted here and out on DU where Bernanke seems once again to be cautioning that we need to be very careful with allowing Walmart to do this because it could cause a change in FDICA rules. But with Utah seeming to want to become a Giant Walmart Bank Processing center...the Repugs might ram this through and set a dangerous precedant for other large companies who want to take over their own banking with presumably Utah or other states getting lots of perks for this?

It's confusing.....:shrug:

[UpInArms]

70. it appears Bernanke is not in favor of corporate owned "banks"

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/business/14153543.htm

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is raising concerns about a legal provision that lets companies own a certain kind of bank, including one Wal-Mart Stores Inc. wants to operate in Utah.

The Fed chief's comments were aimed at an exemption in federal law that allows companies to own such banks, called industrial loan companies.

"The question of whether, or to what extent, the mixing of banking and commerce should be permitted is an important issue and one that we believe should be made by Congress," Bernanke said. "The decision has important ramifications for the structure of the American financial system and the economy, particularly because any widespread combinations of banking and commerce likely would be irreversible."

Bernanke's comment came in a written response to questions on that and other issues raised by Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., during a February hearing. Bernanke's response, dated Monday, was released to The Associated Press on Tuesday.

"It is for these reasons that the (Fed) board has encouraged Congress to review the exemption in current law," Bernanke wrote.

The Fed chief addressed the matter in broad terms. He didn't mention Wal-Mart specifically.

...more...

[KoKo]

73. Well....if Bernanke isn't in favor of that....it must be a really bad

proposal..given what we know about "helicopter Ben." :-(

I wonder what the betting odds are that Walmart will get what it wants, though. It sounds like suffing some baggies with $$$$'s and putting them in the wall (NO's post here)...might not be such a bad idea if Congress is determined to allow this kind of stuff to go forward.

[AnneD]

55. I'm confused too....

I'll have to ask my CU, but I thought the rules were still as you mentioned. These laws were inacted as a result of the lessons learned from the depression. I had trouble with these stock brokers being in banks because I could see, if the average Joe wasn't savvy, that an uninformed customer would think their investments were insured by FDIC.
And that remark about how the economy could weather a drop.......be careful what you wish for because you just might get it. I think some of these folks will have to relearn all those lessons they forgot. I think it is time to cash in the chips, all the odds are in favor of the house and unless you can get into the High Roller Suite, you don't stand a chance. :evilfrown:

[UpInArms]

17. Fukui seeks to soothe JGB yield rise concerns (gov't debt)

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-22T120309Z_01_T104342_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-BOJ-UPDATE-3.XML

TOKYO, March 22 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui sought on Wednesday to soothe concerns about higher long-term interest rates that would hurt the government's efforts to rein in massive state debt.

Fukui told a parliamentary committee the central bank would continue to buy long-term government bonds in the market even after it finished mopping up excess funds from the banking system following the scrapping of its five-year-old ultra-easy monetary policy announced earlier this month.

<snip>

"We don't plan to cut the amount of outright JGB buying immediately after those several months," Fukui said after reiterating that it would take several months for the BOJ to drain surplus funds in the banking system.

He said the JGB buying would be continued for the sake of maintaining consistency in the BOJ's money market operations, denying it was aimed at helping to support government finances.

<snip>

The government is worried that a rise in long-term interest rates would undermine its efforts to cut its swelling debt.

Japan's long-term public debt is some 150 percent of gross domestic product, the highest among leading industrial nations.

...more...

[54anickel]

68. US$: Forget Iran, the problem's at home

http://indiamonitor.com/news/readNews.jsp?ni=10958

Thursday, March 16, 2006: Of all the things that could wreck the US dollar - and there are many - the projected Tehran oil bourse, which is tentatively scheduled to open on March 20 to trade Iran's crude and other petroleum products in euros rather than US dollars, is probably not among them.

The much greater threat to the US currency is the US current account deficit, which ballooned to 7% of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2005. The announcement drove the euro up to 1.202 against the US dollar as skittish traders renewed their concerns about the world's fiat currency.

snip>

As an example of the dollar's imperviousness to reports of petro-switches, the UAE announcement had almost no effect on world currency markets, whose traders are skittish enough to respond to slight rumors of wheat blight in the Caucasus to shift in and out of currencies with lightning speed. The US dollar, which spent last week strengthening against the euro before the threats by the Middle Eastern central bankers, fell slightly against the European currency by a quarter of a percentage point to a one-week high of $1.1945 - before it retreated later.

snip>

This obviously leaves the world's holders of US Treasuries in a quandary. There is little doubt that they would love to diversify away from the US currency, not least because of the growing danger of a dollar collapse. But a possible dollar collapse is much more likely to stem from the unsustainability of the country's gigantic and growing trade and budgetary deficits and the irrational fiscal policies of the Bush administration.

more...

[loudsue]

71. There was a recent article that said the Bourse won't open 'til much later

in 2006. They're (the Iranians) no longer planning to open the oil bourse on March 20th.

:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

10. US home loan demand falls to lowest level this year

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-22T120437Z_01_N22223115_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week to their lowest level this year despite a marked drop in interest rates, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended March 17 decreased 1.6 percent to 565.0 from the previous week's 574.4, its lowest level so far this year.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.31 percent, down 0.11 percentage point from the previous week's 6.42 percent level, a near four-year peak.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the industry benchmark, was also substantially above its 2005 low of 5.47 percent in late June of 2005 and was close to last year's high of 6.33 percent in the week of Nov. 11.

The group's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications decreased 0.6 percent to 1,574.5 compared to 1,583.6 the previous week. A year earlier the index stood at 1,894.4.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index dropped 2.3 percent to 393.6 from the previous week's 403.0. The index was only a few points above its two-year low of 391.7 reached during the week ended Feb. 10. The index was also below its year-ago level of 446.4.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Housing Woes: Interest Rate Increases and Foreclosures

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/print?id=1750615

March 21, 2006 — - Heidi never imagined that she could lose her home outside Dallas. But rising interest rates and skyrocketing monthly mortgage payments have left her staring at foreclosure. She's just one of many Americans who might be forced to move as the housing market cools.

"I loved my home, and I felt very comfortable here, and my dogs loved it here, and my husband loved it here and this was my home and now we've lost it," she said, trying not to get emotional as she stood in her former kitchen.

The vivacious New York transplant, who, for privacy reasons, did not want her last name used, lost her recently built, 2,800-square-foot, three-bedroom home to foreclosure. Because of rising interest rates, the monthly payments on her adjustable-rate mortgage ballooned over the past several years and made the home unaffordable. It will be auctioned to the highest bidder on April 4 or revert to the bank.

"We couldn't keep up with the payments," she explained one dreary, wet Sunday morning in late winter. "The payments went from $1,700 a month almost to $3,000 a month, so this being my first home, my dream home, I had to lose it."

<snip>

As home prices soared at double digit rates during the recent, red-hot housing market, many stretched themselves financially to purchase a home. The use of lower-interest rate ARMs, interest-only mortgages or option-ARMs that allowed home buyers to choose how to pay each month soared during the same period. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, ARMs now represent 25 percent of the more than $8.5 trillion in outstanding loans.

But as interest rates steadily increased over the past year and the explosive growth in housing prices declined, more Americans started to fall behind in their mortgage payments. Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, reported last week that delinquencies now total 4.7 percent, up from 4.38 percent a year ago. For homeowners with ARMs, the rate is 5.72 percent, up nearly 1 percent from the previous year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. WUHBPH Meanspin's words - Feb 23, 2004

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2004/20040223/default.htm

Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

American homeowners clearly like the certainty of fixed mortgage payments. This preference is in striking contrast to the situation in some other countries, where adjustable-rate mortgages are far more common and where efforts to introduce American-type fixed-rate mortgages generally have not been successful. Fixed-rate mortgages seem unduly expensive to households in other countries. One possible reason is that these mortgages effectively charge homeowners high fees for protection against rising interest rates and for the right to refinance.

American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.

[54anickel]

18. Ten signs of a real estate apocalypse (Nothing to worry about)

This is just too funny! Did Chopper Ben write this one?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11944560/

NEW YORK - If California slid into the sea, would it take the U.S. housing market with it?

After a few years of real estate boom, which spread dramatically higher prices to many (though not all) parts of the U.S., the market has recently seemed to change course. On Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that housing starts were down 7.9 percent from January to February and had declined 4.8 percent from February 2005, indicating less demand for new construction. That came three days after the National Association of Realtors predicted that this year would bring "a more level playing field for buyers and sellers on the heels of a five-year sellers market."

This won't be a crash, but a soft landing for the real estate market, it appears. But that made us wonder: What would it take to make things really go off the rails?

War, pestilence and natural disaster have always been bad news for human civilization; that would seem to suggest that they are bad for home sales as well. While conflagrations like World War II and economic declines like the Depression are rare, they do happen — as do lesser versions of conflict and crisis.

We talked to a number of experts about hypothetical events that could send the U.S. real estate market into a skid, from highly unlikely scenarios such as a military confrontation with China, to the types of predicaments we have faced in recent years, like natural disasters and terrorist attacks.

more...

[AnneD]

56. Be prepared...

to see more of this. Just like the Great Depression, but instead of farms, it will be homesteads. Sad, just so sad.

[UpInArms]

16. What's up at Freddie Mac? CFO leaves (deserting the sinking ship?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?dist=newsfinder&symb=FRE&siteid=mktw

8:37am 03/22/06 Freddie Mac's CFO Baumann resigns - MarketWatch.com

8:37am 03/22/06 Freddie: resignation won't affect earnings report in May - MarketWatch.com

[UpInArms]

20. Freddie Mac says CFO resigns - effective immediately

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-22T134532Z_01_WEN3143_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FREDDIEMAC-CFO-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday that Martin Baumann, executive vice president of finance and chief financial officer, has announced his resignation.

Freddie Mac's president and chief operating officer, Eugene McQuade, will assume the CFO responsibilities, effective immediately, while the company searches for a successor.

Baumann joined Freddie Mac in March 2003 as executive vice president for finance. He was named CFO in June 2003. He joined Freddie Mac after a 30-year career at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

19. US Treasuries inch higher after battering

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-22T065722Z_01_T70334_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-TREASURIES-ASIA.XML

TOKYO, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries edged up in Asia on Wednesday, recovering after upbeat comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a surprisingly hefty pick-up in core producer prices drove short-term yields sharply higher.

Benchmark 10-year notes have outperformed short-term notes, which are more sensitive to the Fed policy outlook, as investors believe the central bank is more likely to raise rates to 5 percent and perhaps even higher.

Some traders said the market's abrupt reaction may have been driven by speculators rushing to get out of bets for the yield curve to steepen further, rather than being triggered specifically by Bernanke or the wholesale price figures.

<snip>

The yield curve between two- and 10-year yields stayed inverted at negative 2 basis points. The curve had stretched out to positive 5 basis points last week from negative 17 basis points in late February as players reversed positions.

Market players were cautious about reading too much into the influence of either Bernanke or the producer price index.

Analysts had interpreted Bernanke's comments to be both dovish and hawkish, while the 0.3 percent month-over-month jump in producer prices in February followed a tame reading of core consumer prices for the same month.

But taken together, they were enough to prompt investors to reconsider how far the Fed will keep lifting rates after having already boosted overnight borrowing costs 14 straight times to 4.5 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. US Treasuries rise a day after Bernanke-led plunge

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-22T145856Z_01_N22346400_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rebounded on Wednesday, a day after heavy selling led to the biggest one-day rise in short-dated yields since July.

Traders said Wednesday's rise was a technical bounce-back from Tuesday's sell-off, which followed a rise in underlying producer inflation and economic optimism from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech on Monday night.

The result of Tuesday's action was a "re-inversion" of the yield curve, which again lifted short-term yields above long-term yields, as many in the bond market took Bernanke's optimism to mean that the Fed will raise official short-term interest rates at least two more times.

"We are just reasserting the general trend, which is curve flattening. I don't think there's a whole lot more to it today," said Alan De Rose, a bond trader at CIBC World Markets in New York.

<snip>

"Both home buying and refinancing activity have deteriorated. Nevertheless, home buying remains at a relatively high level while the deterioration in refinancing activity is relatively slow," said Steven Wood, an economist at Insight Economics in Danville, California.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

69. Treasuries rise as curve-flatteners carry the day - inversion deepens

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-22T175337Z_01_N22450457_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Wednesday, amid a deepening yield curve inversion that continued to push short-term yields higher than long-term yields in the wake of comments on Monday by new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Traders said curve-flattening trades -- involving selling short-term notes and buying long-term debt -- were adding to a technical rebound a day after heavy selling that led to the biggest one-day rise in short-dated yields since last July.

<snip>

"Right from the start today you could see buying, especially on the long end. And every time the short-end has popped up, people are turning around and selling it," said one trader, explaining nuances of the curve-flattening trades.

Two-year notes were yielding 3 basis points more than 10-year notes, making the inversion 1 point deeper than on Tuesday.

Bernanke suggested that with long-term rates remaining relatively low even as the Fed has steadily raised official short-term rates since the summer of 2004, the Fed will have little choice but to continue raising short-term rates.

...more...

[54anickel]

21. The Gulf's lingering pain

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11943762/

Last season's hurricanes decimated Louisiana's economy, had severe effects on the entire Gulf region, and sent ripples across the nation.

In the Gulf, damages added up to well above the previous record of $43 billion from Hurricane Andrew, which blasted South Florida in 1992. The recovery has moved slowly, particularly in Louisiana, where New Orleans lost about $6 billion of economic output in 2005. The pain is not yet over. Despite the city's halting steps toward recovery, that amount may double in 2006.

Aside from tourism and conventions, the major regional industry most severely slammed by the hurricanes was oil-and-gas production, especially at the 115 offshore rigs knocked out by Katrina and Rita. Crude-oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains 24% lower than its pre-Katrina levels.

Tax challenge
Ironically, because of record-high energy prices, hurricane-related disruptions, airline consolidations, and a mild winter, the U.S. actually saw a 0.3% contraction in petroleum demand in 2005 -- the first decline since 2001. "For now, the U.S. has been able to import enough crude oil to provide sufficient supplies, though at higher prices," says Standard & Poor's economist Beth Ann Bovino. That counts as a plus for the national economy but comes as little solace for the local one, where ruined rigs await the labor and equipment to repair them.

more...

[loudsue]

72. The Democrats are CRAZY if they don't hold the 2008 convention

in New Orleans. That issue is something that even red-staters have been furious over, and it would be an opportunity to

1) Help the economy of New Orleans, and
2) Draw attention to the atrocious policies of the republican-owned government in the U.S.

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

22. Full Faith and Credit (Mogambo)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/mar222006.html

- I am sitting, alone, in the Impenetrable Mogambo Bunker Of Ultimate Defensive Posture (IMBOUDP), and voices that insist they are my "family" are begging me to open the blast-proof door and at least give them back the TV remote control. So I decide to ask them an easy question to find out if they are really my family or, as I suspect, nefarious imposters. So I shout out, "Hey! Morons!" and someone shouts back "We don’t like being called morons, daddy!" And so I say, "Okay, Einstein; do you know what the Federal Reserve has done to the value of your money since the Fed was created in 1913, only faster and faster and faster until you can't catch your breath anymore? Huh? Do ya, moron?" And they admit "Well, no. But we know that's why you have locked yourself in there with the TV remote!" Triumphantly I exclaim "Then you're all morons!"

Please notice that I asked them an easy question, when I could have asked them something more difficult due to its recent-osity, such as "Do you know how much more debt the Congress just authorized to be loaded onto our breaking backs?" The answer is, in case you were wondering, $781 billion, bringing the total official Treasury debt limit to just under nine trillion dollars. In case you, for some reason, like seeing all the zeroes, it is written out as $9,000,000,000,000.00. That's nine huge, insanely gigantic trillion dollars, which comes to roughly about $90,000 for everybody who has a job in the whole freaking country. At 5% interest, your government will pay out $450 billion a year just in interest payments alone! Which is, again roughly, about $4,500 for everybody who has a job.

Anyway, the Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, who is, they say, a Republican Senator from Iowa, said that they are passing the huge increase in the national debt limit because "It is necessary to preserve the full faith and credit of the federal government." Hahahaha! Meanwhile, this same Senator and his fellow Senate buddies have also, according to the Associated Press, been working on their proposed version of next year's budget, and have "adopted a $2.8 trillion budget blueprint that anticipates deficits greater than $350 billion for both this year and next."

Wait a minute! The government he so proudly represents budgets only a $350 billion deficit for the next fiscal year, and yet the same government, at the same time, allowed the Treasury to issue $781 billion in new bonds, which is only enough to last them about a year? More than twice as much? Hahaha! This is too rich! "Full faith and credit!" And this is the Senate Finance Committee Chairman saying this! Hahaha! "Full faith and credit!"

Wiping bitter tears of laughter from my eyes, I next read that, as a kind of comic coda, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the horrid Federal Reserve, has announced that the sheer reputation of the Federal Reserve will be enough to keep interest rates lower than they otherwise would be. Hahaha! Another example of "full faith and credit." Hahaha!

more...

[UpInArms]

23. Consumer Group Challenges Deficit Law - unconstitutional *Co signing

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/ats-ap_politics14mar21,0,4241812.story

WASHINGTON -- A consumer-rights group on Tuesday challenged as unconstitutional the Deficit Reduction Act that cuts a wide variety of federal programs, on grounds the version President Bush signed differs from what was passed by the House.

The lawsuit by Public Citizen in U.S. District Court here is the second filed after Bush signed the $39 billion deficit-cutting legislation into law on Feb. 8. A Republican activist also has sued in federal court in Alabama.

"Under the Constitution, the same version of a bill has to be passed by both houses of Congress," said Adina Rosenbaum, an attorney at Public Citizen. "We filed our lawsuit because it's important for the government to abide by the law."

The lawsuit seeks to throw out the law entirely, requiring Congress "to start again from square one," Rosenbaum said. The group is seeking the court's expedited consideration, although it acknowledged that the process could take several months.

At issue is a provision involving how long Medicare pays for renting some types of durable medical equipment. The Senate voted for 13 months, as intended by Senate and House negotiators, but a Senate clerk erroneously put down 36 months in sending the bill back to House for a final vote, and that's what the House approved Feb. 1.

By the time the bill was shipped to Bush, the number was back to 13 months as passed by the Senate.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. $30,000 is found in wall - NOLA clean-up volunteer

http://www.desnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,635193500,00.html

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Trista Wright was spending her spring break cleaning out hurricane-damaged homes when she discovered some unusual papers among the moldy plaster board and debris.

"I started raking it out of the air conditioner vent. I thought it was garbage and I was going to shovel it up, but I bent down to pick it up, and it was a stack of $100 bills, and then more and more kept coming," the 19-year-old said Tuesday on CNN.

By an unofficial count, it was more than $30,000.

Wright and fellow students notified the organizers of their church mission, who told the St. Bernard Parish Sheriff's Office.

The woman who owned the house, who has asked that she not be identified, was as shocked as Wright.

<snip>

The homeowner said she suspects the money belonged to her father, who was wary of banks. The home had been in the family for generations, she said.

...more...

:D

[UpInArms]

26. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Stage remains set for the major averages to open in split fashion. On the earnings front, Morgan Stanley (MS), Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) all posted stronger than expected reports but none of the reports are having much influence on pre-market action as Microsoft remains front and center and investors' focus increasingly drifts towards next Tuesday's Fed policy meeting.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Still shaping up to be a flat open for blue chips and a lower open for tech stocks. Aside from Microsoft's woes weighing on the market, crude futures may also impact the tone of trading today as investors await the EIA's weekly oil report (10:30 ET). Meanwhile, drug stocks will also be in focus following multiple upgrades on Bristol-Myers (BMY) amid the delay of a competing generic therapy.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.0. Futures trade versus fair value suggests a mixed open with the tech-heavy Nasdaq expected to trail the early action. In the absence of any notable economic data, Microsoft (MSFT) delaying the introduction of its new Windows Vista operating system is acting as the largest drag on early sentiment.

[UpInArms]

27. Imprisoned for Bribery - GOP Ex-congressman's loot to be auctioned

http://dwb.newsobserver.com/24hour/politics/story/3236533p-11982258c.html

RANCHO DOMINGUEZ, Calif. (AP) - Silver-plated candelabras. A cedar-lined lingerie cabinet. Persian rugs. An oak hutch carved with lions' heads, tree limbs and acorns.

The spoils from former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham's bribery scheme - a household of valuable antiques, rugs and home furnishings - will be auctioned off by the government Thursday to help cover the back taxes and restitution he owes.

<snip>

Cunningham, who was sentenced earlier this month to more than eight years in prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes, received the items from defense contractors in exchange for helping them win government contracts.

"Lavish," said Jim Sudomir, a retiree from Fallbrook, summing up Cunningham's lifestyle as he looked over the display. "If he was going to be a crook he should have been a smarter one. He thought he was above all that. ... Look where he's at now. He's in jail."

The inventory reveals that the contractors spared little expense to appease Cunningham's collector's tastes.

<snip>

Cunningham's prison term was described by attorneys for both sides as the longest prison sentence ever given to a member of Congress. The scale of the corruption scheme is unmatched in the annals of Congress.

...more...

[wordpix2]

48. can't wait for next auction to be BushCheneyRumsfeld stuff

[54anickel]

54. Can't think of anything I'd want to buy, but I look forward to the auction

taking place.
Maybe I could get my hands on Saddam's pistol? On second thought, who knows what masturbation uses Shrub has come up with for it....ewwwww.

[AnneD]

57. Dibs

on Cheney's shotgun he got from the NRA, Bush's Segway (condition unimportant), and Rumsfeld's kevlar vest (oh wait, he didn't order one)!!!!!!

[UpInArms]

28. Home Fuel Bills Show No Sign of Mild Winter - highest $$ since 1981

hmmm.... who was in office in 1981? Oh, yeah - RayGun :grr:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/22/national/22heat.html?ei=5099&en=418bb46faaf4ebf8&ex=1143694800&partner=TOPIXNEWS&pagewanted=print

Americans have spent more money heating their homes this winter than in a generation, despite mild weather that has kept down the consumption of heating fuel.

State and local governments have enlisted Boy Scouts to insulate homes, offered tax breaks on fuel efficient products and even recycled newspaper to make insulation to warm the homes of poor residents in one of the nation's frostier states.

<snip>

The price of heating oil reached $2.38 a gallon this winter, the highest price since 1981 — even adjusting for inflation — according to federal figures, roughly 60 percent higher than the average price per gallon from 1999 to 2004.

The prices, even against the backdrop of a winter punctuated by blooming flowers in December and unadjusted thermostats, resulted in a 45 percent increase in household spending on fuel compared with the average of the last several years — $1,386 per home — even though consumption fell 9 percent in the same period.

The story was the same in homes that use natural gas and propane for heating. Natural gas reached its highest price on record in late 2005, according to the federal figures, and spending rose to $867 per home, a 35 percent increase over previous years.

...more...

[WhiteTara]

29. our heating bill is consistantly at least

$300 a month. Last year it was $120.

[wordpix2]

50. my use was down 15%, my bill was up 18 % over last year, same months

[UpInArms]

30. Silver futures tap a fresh 22-year high in morning trading - $10.60 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3794DB1E%2D0D0B%2D4FA7%2DA31E%2DEBC8F9D54221%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Silver futures climbed to a new 22-year high Wednesday, extending the 2% gain from the prior session after a proposed silver exchange-traded fund came closer to a launch. Silver for May delivery climbed as high as $10.60 an ounce, a level the futures market hasn't seen since late 1983. The contract was last up 2.5 cents at $10.59 an ounce. Silver prices look set to test $10.65/$10.80 in the coming sessions, said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London. Meanwhile, April gold fell $2.30 to $550.90 an ounce after tapping a more than one-week low of $547.30.

[UpInArms]

66. April Gold @ $550.70 oz - May Silver @ $10.50 oz

12:17 PM ET 3/22/06 APRIL GOLD FALLS $2.50 TO $550.70/OZ IN AFTERNOON TRADING

12:17 PM ET 3/22/06 MAY SILVER FALLS 6.5C TO $10.50/OZ AFTER $10.60 HIGH

[UpInArms]

32. 10:07 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,273.33 +37.86 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,288.77 -5.46 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,299.80 +2.57 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.695 -0.22 (-0.47%)

NYSE Volume 304,535,000
Nasdaq Volume 391,702,000

10:00 am : The blue chip indices and Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions as industry leadership remains mixed. Technology remains the biggest drag on stocks while Financial, despite a strong report from Morgan Stanley (MS 61.11 +0.70), is also trading lower. Health Care, however, has shown relative strength after Bristol-Myers (BMY 25.31 +2.48) and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 47.93 +4.25) announced an agreement to settle their U.S. patent litigation with Apotex. DJ30 +22.25 NASDAQ -10.71 SP500 +0.24 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1268/1050/294 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1136/835/158 mln

09:40 am : Stocks pick up where they left off yesterday, opening lower amid weakness throughout Technology, but the indices now trade in split fashion. Weighing most heavily on early sentiment has been Microsoft's (MSFT 27.05 -0.69) announced that it will delay the much anticipated Windows Vista operating system for consumers to early next year. Microsoft is the fourth most influential component on the broader market, accounting for 2.1% and 14% of the weighting on the S&P 500 and Tech sector, respectively.DJ30 +16.33 NASDAQ -8.60 SOX -0.6% SP500 +0.35 NASDAQ Vol 112 mln NYSE Vol 56 mln

[Roland99]

37. "opposing directions"...that's par for the course anymore.

[ozymandius]

41. Money looking for safe harbour.

And while we're pondering opposites... what's the likelihood that the 10-year and the 30-year bond rates will invert?

[54anickel]

43. Dang, they are close aren't they Ozy. I hadn't been paying much

attention lately.

10-yr Bond 4.691% -0.03
30-yr Bond 4.71% -0.03

[Roland99]

44. Probably pretty good odds.

And that flight for safe harbour has me wondering if some of the stalwart blue chips aren't now overpriced.


Hey, check these out:

http://www.neatideas.com/10yrT.htm
http://www.neatideas.com/30yrT.htm

[UpInArms]

34. Chinese engine firm talking with Caterpillar - Carlyle involvement

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-22T150039Z_01_SXA86450_RTRIDST_0_MANUFACTURING-CHINA-CATERPILLAR-UPDATE-2.XML

SHANGHAI, March 22 (Reuters) - Chinese engine maker Shanghai Diesel Engine Co. Ltd. (600841.SS: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday it is in preliminary discussions to boost its cooperation with Caterpillar Inc. (CAT.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

"We are in talks with Caterpillar to explore the possibility of a closer relationship," the firm said in a statement published in the Shanghai Securities News. Shanghai Diesel issued the statement in response to recent media reports about the U.S. firm's acquisition ambitions in China.

A senior executive at Shanghai Diesel told Reuters the two parties set up a joint venture in the early 1990s to produce diesel engines for trucks, but later closed the operation due to heavy losses.

<snip>

Last year, U.S. buyout firm Carlyle Group said it would buy 85 percent of China's biggest machinery company, Xugong Group, for $375 million, beating out rivals including Caterpillar for control of the state-run firm.

The Shanghai Diesel executive declined to comment on the possibility that Caterpillar might buy a controlling stake in the Chinese firm, in a move similar to the Xugong deal.

...more...

[Roland99]

38. What is the Carlyle Group *not* getting into lately??

[54anickel]

42. Hmmm, might be a way to keep tabs on some possible military investments

by China. The diesel engine companies here (Dresser, Pierce-something or another, and Cat) used to make quite a bit of equipment and parts for the military. I think they still do to a small degree. During WWII, Dresser was pumping our tanks like there was no tomorrow. They'd run them up and down the big hill across the street from the plant with music and a parade like atmosphere to get the workers patriotism all fired up when they were getting sick and tired of all the OT.

I gotta get suspicious whenever I read Carlyle Group. Their profit sectors tend to rely on death, destruction, poverty and war.

[Roland99]

45. Ever read Stephen King's The Dark Tower series?

If you have, you'll see that The Carlyle Group is the Sombra Corporation. :)

[UpInArms]

35. Chairs sold exclusively at Wal-Mart recalled after injuries

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-03-22T120621Z_01_WEN3120_RTRUKOC_0_US-RETAIL-WALMART.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is recalling about 643,000 rocking chairs after reports that poor construction and over-curvature of the their runners caused 45 injuries, U.S. regulators said.

The recall involves the Mainstays Love Seat Rocker model IT-13380, which were sold from May 2004 through September 2005 for about $100. Also involved is the Mainstays Porch Rocker models IT-13379 and IT-13270, sold from April 2004 through March 2006 for about $50.

The rockers were sold exclusively at Wal-Mart stores and its Web site.

Wal-Mart has received 55 incident reports involving the chair. One report said a pregnant woman began having contractions after the display chair in which she was sitting flipped over backward, the Consumer Product Safety Commission said.

Other reported injuries include a cut in the leg requiring 16 stitches, a slight concussion, fractured ribs, wrist sprains, upper back injuries, a pinched nerve, and a shoulder joint tear.

...more...

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[UpInArms]

46. Dana says losses more than doubled in 4th qtr

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-22T154653Z_01_N22367202_RTRIDST_0_MANUFACTURING-DANACORP-UPDATE-1.XML

CHICAGO, March 22 (Reuters) - Bankrupt automotive parts maker Dana Corp. (DCNAQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday said it expects its fourth-quarter net loss to more than double due to restructuring costs, sending shares down 3.2 percent.

The company, a producer of frames, axles and drive shafts, said preliminary results indicate a quarterly net loss of $376 million, including a loss of $231 million from continuing operations.

In the year-earlier quarter, its net loss was $136 million, including a loss of $72 million from continuing operations.

The Toledo, Ohio-based company, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 3, also said it has suspended its quarterly conference calls and annual shareholder meetings until further notice.

<snip>

Dana last year was beset by accounting problems that forced financial restatements and delayed fourth-quarter and full-year 2005 financial reports. Most recently, it was unable to renew or expand credit facilities quickly enough to avoid bankruptcy.

...more...

[54anickel]

47. Cash Squeeze Means Pension Freeze

A new study says finance chiefs will freeze retirement benefits if they cut into buybacks, capital spending, or other priorities.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/5652359/c_5652499?f=home_todayinfinance

Most companies would probably freeze their defined-benefit pension plans if the costs start eating large chunks out of corporate cash flow, a new survey of 109 senior finance executives finds.

Indeed, 60 percent of the respondents said their companies would likely deny pensions to new workers or stop adding benefits for current ones if the plans start making inordinate cash demands, according to the Towers Perrin study of mainly CFOs, treasurers, and vice presidents of finance for U.S. and U.K. companies with pension assets over $100 million.

According to Towers Perrin, 48 percent of the companies surveyed are likely to freeze their plans if they produce a hit to earnings; 43 percent are likely do so in response to a rise in cost of capital or a lower credit rating; and 33 percent will probably take action in the face of a dropping share price. Thirty-two percent of the companies surveyed had already closed their plans to new entrants. (Towers Perrin didn't specify whether a "freeze" refers to halting current employees from receiving new credit for future benefits, refusing pension benefits to new employees, or both.)

In general, the trigger for freezing plans appears to be a drain on cash flow so severe that other cherished corporate programs are threatened with cuts. Things have gotten serious when "the pension plan becomes a competing interest for cash within the organization," says Cecil Hemingway, who heads the pension-legacy solutions department at the actuarial and risk-management-consulting firm. In particular, pension plans would not be allowed to continue if they began to drain funds away from share buyback programs or investments in plant and equipment, he adds.

more...

[AnneD]

61. This cuts at the very core of contract law.....

What Congress needs to do is put employee pensions at the head of the creditor line and make these companies finance to a responsible level. For years co have used pension to improve their bottom line (investing in their own stocks etc). The money should not co-mingle with any other funds, the SS problems should illustrate the folly of that notion. I remember arguing with an elderly friend (when they raised the SS tax the last time)that I didn't mind the tax increase because we needed to set aside for our retirement, but that I would feel better if the money didn't go the general fund but into a specific account. Gee, to bad he's not alive so I could say I told you so.
These changes will have a devastating effect on ALL our future retirements.I don't think the Boomers will go quietly into the night.

[54anickel]

64. Contract? Just another GD scrap of paper!

[AnneD]

77. That's the way it will be viewed.....

People use to be self sufficient and it took a lot to get workers to give up their independence to work in factories. Providing for retirement was one of the lures. Well what will happen when the lure is gone. I know lots of kids that intend to work for themselves. My kid is VERY aware of the pitfalls and wants her own business. I hope to gift her periodically to help her get a biz going later.

[Roland99]

49. Don't forget! One more day and then no more M3

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm



Hmm...no more publication of Repurchase Agreements.


Could it be they will have the Fed purchase more US debt to hedge against China/Japan slowing their purchases as the dollar weakens? Print money to buy debt? But it would show up in M0, eh?



Hmm...I just can't put my finger on it.

[Roland99]

58. The Mess That Greenspan Made....(good read)

The Mess That Greenspan Made
How 18 Years of Easy Money Have Changed the World
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2005/11/m3-moneyness-and-conspiracy-theories.html

[54anickel]

52. China warns US not to make it a scapegoat

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/cc7d9efc-b90c-11da-b57d-0000779e2340.html

China will take measures to meet US complaints about their bilateral trade imbalance as part of next month’s trip to Washington by Hu Jintao, Chinese president, but has warned the US also to take responsibility for its economic problems.

Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, in unreported comments to a forum of foreign business executives on Monday evening, promised new initiatives on issues such as abuse of intellectual property rights, a long-running complaint of investors.

“But it is unfair for the US to scapegoat China for the US’s own structural economic problems,” Mr Wen added, according to two executives at the closed meeting, and asked that this comment be relayed to the American people.

Mr Wen’s comments coincide with a surge in bilateral talks and exchanges in an effort by China to lay the foundations for a successful visit by Mr Hu and also head off rising protectionist pressures in the US.

snip>

Mr Wen’s call for Washington to take responsibility for the US trade deficit with China finds sympathy in the US among economists who blame the imbalance on America’s chronic shortage of savings.

more...

[UpInArms]

59. Discover sees higher charge-offs in second half of 2006

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B52853B7C%2DDDA5%2D4D6B%2D9A88%2D3F313828B86F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley's (MS) Discover credit-card unit is bracing for higher losses from deteriorating consumer credit quality later in fiscal 2006, Morgan Stanley's finance chief said Wednesday.

Discover anticipates a "softening in credit quality in the second half of the year as more difficult economic conditions put pressure on consumers," Chief Financial Officer David Sidwell said Wednesday during a conference call with analysts and investors to discuss Morgan Stanley's first-quarter earnings.

In addition to macroeconomic trends, Sidwell also pointed to new rules requiring higher minimum monthly credit-card payments as a culprit that could push up consumer default rates.

While Sidwell said he expects credit quality to remain exceptionally strong in the current second quarter - a byproduct of last year's spike in consumer bankruptcy filings - softening credit quality later in 2006 "will offset" the improved credit quality that currently is buoying Discover's results, he said.

...more...

[Name removed]

60. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

79. OK....Who Said Something Bad?

I don't recall if I've ever seen a post removed from the SMW board.

[ozymandius]

83. Just one time.

Some supply-sider idiot kept using sock puppets to post inane Reaganesque comments.

[fasttense]

80. What's with the deleted messages?

Did a freeper find STOCK MARKET WATCH and pass along fox news info?

I just got done being told by a freeper that supply and demand free market can not be subverted by government interference and we should all be happy to pay high gas prices. Nice to be back among intelligent people.

[AnneD]

84. I guess it only goes to show...

a freeper and his money are soon parted....

[54anickel]

85. Self-deleted

Did I say that outloud?

[54anickel]

62. Ominous Warnings and Dire Predictions of Financial Experts, Part 2

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=18069

SAN ANTONIO (Precious Metals Warrants) -- As I have mentioned in previous articles, I have the most informed, intelligent and savvy subscribers one could ask for. One of them, Lorimer Wilson, previously wrote me with his insights on “Our Worst Nightmare – the Puncture of the Current U.S. Housing Bubble.” It was very well received when published by me recently and he has just sent me more information which I think you will find timely and of particular interest.

Together we have compiled a remarkable summary of the ominous warnings, dire predictions and perceived devastating consequences that the vast majority of economists, financial analysts, economic research firms and financial commentators are saying about our current economic situation and what is most likely to unfold in the months and years ahead. It is a must read to more clearly understand and appreciate the financial state of the union, the impact it will likely have on various investments, and how better to allocate ones assets.

Nobody has a crystal ball, but to just ignore the following warning signs and hope that everything will turn out okay would simply be foolish.

Below is Part 2 of our 6-part article. Click here to see Part 1.

more...

[UpInArms]

63. 12:19 EST numbers, blather and tune for the day

Dow 11,293.18 +57.71 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,295.96 +1.73 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,302.66 +5.43 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.701 -0.16 (-0.34%)

NYSE Volume 961,685,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,069,438,000

12:00 pm : The market remains mixed midday as the absence of notable economic data provides some relief, evidenced by falling bond yields, and places even more emphasis on corporate news. Most significant has been news that Microsoft (MSFT 26.97 -0.77) will delay the much anticipated Windows Vista operating system for consumers to early next year. As the fourth most influential component on the broader market, accounting for 2.1% and 14% of the weighting on the S&P 500 and Tech sector, respectively, a 2.8% decline in the stock has stalled some of the momentum behind last week's rally and taken much of tech down with it.

Stocks overall, however, remain quite resilient, as evidenced by gains in eight out of ten economic sectors. Providing the bulk of industry leadership has been Energy, benefiting from an uptick in oil prices following an unexpected draw on weekly crude oil inventories. Health Care has also provided some leadership to the upside, led by a 1.9% surge in the drug group. Multiple analyst upgrades on Bristol-Myers (BMY 25.31 +2.48), amid reports that it and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 47.93 +4.25) agreed to settle their U.S. patent litigation with Apotex, has helped offset a 2.4% decline in Biogen Idec (BIIB 47.16 -1.15) following news that the FDA will extend its review of BIIB's key drug Tysabri.

Financial has shown relative strength, getting a boost following a strong earnings report from Morgan Stanley (MS 61.53 +1.12) as well as a rebound in Treasuries following their biggest decline in two weeks. The yield on the 10-yr note (+06/32) has fallen back below 4.70% as overstated inflation concerns subside, renewing interest in rate-sensitive stocks. Consumer Discretionary has also been in focus and has posted a modest gain following strong earnings from Nike (NKE 85.84 +0.89) and reports that General Motors' (GM 22.20 +0.20) and its supplier Delphi have reached a deal with the UAW. BTK -0.1% DJ30 +55.42 NASDAQ -1.12 SOX -0.2% SP500 +4.98 XOI +1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1299/1499/984 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1272/1781/622 mln

All sung to the tune of "I'm Alright" by Kenny Loggins:

I'm alright
Nobody worry 'bout me
Why you got to gimme a fight?
Can't you just let it be?

I'm alright
Don't nobody worry 'bout me
You got to gimme a fight
Why don't you just let me be

Do what you like,
Doing it nat'rally
But if it's too easy
They're gonna disagree

It's your life
And isn't it a mystery
If it's nobody's bus'ness
It's everybody's game

Gotta catch you later
No, no, cannonball it right away

Some Cinderella kid

Get it up and get you a job
(Dip dip dip dip dip dip dip dip)

I'm alright
Nobody worry 'bout me
Why you got to gimme a fight?
Can't you just let it be?

I'm alright
Don't nobody worry 'bout me
You got to gimme a fight
Why don't you just let me be

Who do you want?
Who you gonna be today?
And who is it really
Makin' up your mind?

You wanna listen to the man?
Pay attention to the magistrate
And while I got you in the mood
Listen to your

Own heart beatin'
Own heart beatin'
Own heart beatin'
Own heart beatin'

Don't it get you movin'

mmmmm-man

It make me feel good

(Wow, Cinderella kid)

Then give it up and give it the job

(dip dip dip dip dip dip dip dip)
(Boom, boom, boom, boom)

I'm alright
Nobody worry 'bout me
Why you got to gimme a fight?
Can't you just let it be?

I'm alright
Don't nobody worry 'bout me
You got to gimme a fight
Why don't you just let me be

I'm alright
Nobody worry 'bout me
Why you got to gimme a fight?
Can't you just let it be?

I'm alright
I'm alright
Just let me be

[UpInArms]

67. Samsung Execs plead guilty to chip price fixing

12:39pm 03/22/06 Samsung executives plead guilty to chip price-fixing - MarketWatch.com

[JNelson6563]

74. 2:12 Update

10 yr. chart for day:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=%5ETNX

Index Value: 47.11
Trade Time: 1:51PM ET
Change: 0.06 (0.13%)
Prev Close: 47.17
Open: 47.15
Day's Range: 46.85 - 47.15
10-Yr Bond 4.709% -0.01

Other stuff:

Dow 11,290.06 +54.59 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,295.05 +0.82 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,301.64 +4.41 (+0.34%)

Enjoy the last couple of hours of casino actioh! :toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

75. Disney laying off animators ahead of Pixar deal

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=599&e=16&u=/nm/20060322/media_nm/disney_dc

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - The Walt Disney Co. plans to shutter an animation facility created by former CEO Michael Eisner.

Sources said about 32 animators and other employees at Circle 7 will lose their jobs, while the remaining 136 or so will be assigned to Disney's Feature Animation division.

Circle 7 was built to make sequels to the movies Disney made with Pixar Animation Studios. Although Disney had sequel rights to those films, Pixar did not intend to help make them, including "Toy Story 3," which had been under way at Circle 7.

With Disney's $7.4 billion acquisition of Pixar set to close in the next two months, Circle 7 has become a less important asset.

...more...

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

78. Facility Created By Former CEO Eisner...

You would think that when Mikee announced his retirement, anybody working here would have realized there may be trouble ahead.

Once the deal was reached to buy Pixar, they really should have been concerned.

[ozymandius]

76. heading into the home stretch

and everything's just dandy

3:33
Dow 11,307.43 +71.96 (+0.64%)
Nasdaq 2,300.26 +6.03 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,304.06 +6.83 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 47.03 -0.14 (-0.30%)
NYSE Volume 1,720,613,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,826,711,000

3:00 pm : Market retraces its midday highs as sellers remain on the sidelines heading into the final hour of trading. Underpinning an added source of support is the fact that oil prices have recently closed near two-week lows, down 0.9% at $61.80 per barrel, but Energy continues to hold onto modest gains. Albeit no longer the day's best-performing economic sector, Energy's resilience alongside falling oil prices in an environment deeply concerned about inflation speaks volumes.DJ30 +69.86 NASDAQ +3.96 SP500 +5.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 1175/1762 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1119/2109/1.13 bln

[ozymandius]

81. Boy-HOWDY! We done got us a two keg party on Wall Street today.

Dow 11,317.43 +81.96 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,303.35 +9.12 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,305.04 +7.81 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 47.03 -0.14 (-0.30%)
NYSE Volume 2,039,757,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,114,003,000

4:20 pm : Buyers returned after a two-day slump, weighing strong corporate profits and eased inflation concerns against a product delay from Microsoft that initially underpinned a sense of caution at the onset of trading.

Last night, Microsoft (MSFT 27.15 -0.59) announced it will delay the much anticipated Windows Vista operating system for consumers to early next year. Knowing that Microsoft is the fourth heaviest weighted constituent on the S&P 500, coupled with the plethora of PC suppliers that expected to benefit from the first software cycle upgrade in five years, it was anyone's guess how the market might react. Fortunately for the bulls and supporting our viewpoint that investors should sit tight in the midst of any knee-jerk selling activity since the consumer opportunity won't disappear, sellers were unable to keep bargain hunters at bay as better than expected earnings from blue chips like Morgan Stanley (MS 61.96 +1.55), Nike (NKE 86.84 +1.89) and FedEx (FDX 114.25 +1.03) provided investors with some reassurance that the profit picture may not be as bad as previously thought.

Providing another source of support was a rebound in Treasuries following their biggest decline in two weeks. The yield on the 10-yr note (+04/32) fell as low as 4.68% before closing at 4.70%, as overstated inflation concerns subsided and renewed buying interest in rate-sensitive stocks, which in turn with Morgan Stanley's strong report helped Financial post a solid gain. Despite an early uptick in oil prices following an unexpected draw on weekly crude oil inventories, which helped Energy provide some upside leadership, the commodity eventually closed down 0.9% near two-week lows, providing an extra source of comfort for investors.

Of the other seven economic sectors posting gains, Health Care turned in the day's best performance getting a big boost from strength in drug stocks. The latter benefited from multiple analyst upgrades on Bristol-Myers (BMY 25.31 +2.48), amid reports that it and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 47.82 +4.14) agreed to settle their U.S. patent litigation with Apotex. The Industrials sector got a lift FedEx's strong earnings but found even more support from Caterpillar (CAT 76.19 +1.88) -- the Dow's best performer on the day. Consumer Discretionary was also a focal point following Nike's strong report and news that General Motors' (GM 22.20 +0.20) and its supplier Delphi reached a deal with the UAW. BTK +1.0% DJ30 +81.96 DJTA +1.2% DJUA +0.6% DOT +0.3% NASDAQ +9.12 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +1.2% SOX +0.1% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +7.81 XOI +0.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1053/1925/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1049/2231/1.48 bln

[UpInArms]

82. Martin Frankel: convicted of insurance fraud faces resentencing

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7DA46F79%2D2F9B%2D4C3E%2D9ACE%2DA9DBFA70E115%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Martin Frankel, who was convicted in 2004 for scheming to defraud insurance companies of more than $200 million, will be sentenced again Thursday, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Connecticut said Wednesday. Frankel was sentenced to 16 years and eight months in prison in December 2004. He will be resentenced to meet new federal guidelines. Frankel's attorneys have asked for a lighter sentence on the grounds that Frankel is mentally ill.

history:

MARTIN FRANKEL: SEX, GREED AND $200 MILLION FRAUD

Ensconced in a suite at the posh Hotel Prem in Hamburg, fugitive financier Martin Frankel and Cindy Allison, his female companion for two of the four months he had been on the lam, had just finished the lavish seafood dinner from the fancy La Mer restaurant in the hotel.

Comforted in his plush German hideout by a couple million dollars in diamonds and a quarter of a million in cash, Frankel devoted his time to trying to keep his embezzled fortune from seizure, studying his astrological charts and watching reruns of old movies.

<snip>

This was, indeed, the infamous Martin Frankel, who author J.A. Johnson Jr. describes as having “from his lavish cocoon -- masterminded one of the largest, most bizarre embezzlement schemes in American history, one that rocked the insurance and investment industries and spanned the globe from the unassuming town of Toledo, Ohio, to the gilded dome of the Vatican.”

<snip>

After dropping out of college, Marty toyed with selling real estate, but he was unsuccessful. Then he began to take an interest in the securities markets. Viewing the financial markets as a way of becoming wealthy very quickly, he became obsessed with learning everything he could about the brokerage business. The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, Business Week, etc. were his textbooks. Still living off his parents, he had the luxury of spending his days hanging around brokerage houses, learning about how the traders made decisions and how to use the specialized equipment they had at their disposal. In an era of Wall Street luminaries like Michael Miliken and Ivan Boesky, Marty decided that the world of finance would be his ticket to riches.

<snip>

What the SEC did not understand in 1991 was what Frankel had been doing with a new venture that he had created in 1989. Creative Partners Fund LP was another scam like the Frankel Fund, but the minimum investment was only $10,000 and designed to pull in a much broader base of investors that did not require a certain level of net worth to be able to invest. This time, Sonia, with her considerable administrative and marketing skills, was involved. She had left John Schulte and filed for divorce.

...more...