Gallup: Big September Leads ... (Dem Lead In Cong Poll Jumps: 53 to 41%)

[Mark E. Smith]

September 13, 2006

Big September Leads on General Ballot Usually a Good Omen for Democrats

Democrats more likely than republicans to express enthusiasm about voting.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's latest update on the generic Congressional ballot,
from a Sept 7-10 2006 poll, finds Democrats with a 53% to 41% advantage over
Republicans. For most of the year, Democrats have enjoyed about a 10-percentage
point advantage on this measure, though in the two prior polls the lead was less
than that.

Aug 7-10, 2006 Dems 50% GOP 41%
Aug 18-20, 2006 Dems 47% GOP 45%
Sept 7-10, 2006 Dems 53% GOP 41%

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=24460

More war speeches, Georgie!

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

1. Here, here, gwb, keep up the speechifyin '! Your scary mug is the

biggest "fear" motivator of all!

MKJ

[pfitz59]

8. I agree

his fear-mongering and evangelizing will backfore. folks are fed up with his lies.

[fasttense]

2. And when the repukes rig the elections yet again, this will be ignored.n/t

[Atman]

4. As well it should be. Polls are always wrong since Bush took office.

It's an amazing phenomenon. It doesn't matter by how much the republicans trail in any given poll, they still seem to win. Not because of "voting irregularities," of course, rather because since 2000, no one remembers how to conduct a proper poll. Oh, and since 2000, people started lying to pollsters, too.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

7. I know, I'm afraid the "come from behind at the last minute victory"

meme is just waiting to be trotted out. MKJ

[Lone_Star_Dem]

3. I'm with you Mark, more war speeches!

We've noticed at my local Dem chapter a rise in attendance after he makes a speech pimping his war. I don't think it's a mere coincidence.

[Mark E. Smith]

12. It's Georgie's "Don Knotts the War President" routine

Just isn't playing very well.

If I was a GOP candidate I think I'd be calling Karl Rove right about now
and asking him to please put a muzzle on George.

[Kolesar]

24. It's gonna kill the gop in Ohio. Bush* has especially bad numbers here

WRT general approval and wrt his disaster in Iraq. The Ohio gop-guber candidate Ken Blackwell is actually running *against* the Republicans.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. Leading is "usually" a good omen.

But not in this country for some frickin' reason.

[Cooley Hurd]

6. The swing voters are swinging our way

:thumbsup:

[Demeter]

9. I Wish It Was Over 60%

anything less is too close

[stepnw1f]

10. Get READY for another rigged election

we need massive numbers!

[bdamomma]

26. we have to be ready for anything they shovel out to us

we have to shovel it back to them. Remember WE THE PEOPLE.

[steve88]

43. Yes, I agree - another rigged election

If they can rig a presidential election, fixing a House/Senate election should be a piece of cake...

[davekriss]

46. Of course they can

The test lab for the theft of 2004 was the state of Georgia in 2002. Max Cleland was leading Saxby Chamblis by 5% points on election eve. Conveniently, we have this from CNN at the time:

CNN.com is committed to bringing you full exit poll results when available. However, Due to problems with exit polls from Voter News Service (VNS), no exit poll data is available for the 2002 elections.

(See cnn.com). How conveeeeennnniiieeennnttt! What followed? "Pollsters may have goofed" because "Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Max Cleland by a margin of 53 to 46 percent. The Hotline, a political news service, recalled a series of polls Wednesday showing that Chambliss had been ahead in none of them." (See here.) That's a turnaround of 12 points in a day! It didn't happen, folks! Welcome to our land of faux elections!!

In that same election, Georgia elected its first non-Democratic governor in 135 years. No issue there, right? From the same source:

Just as amazing was the 2002 Georgia governor's race. "Similarly," the Zogby polling organization reported on Nov. 7, "no polls predicted the upset victory in Georgia of Republican Sonny Perdue over incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes. Perdue won by a margin of 52 to 45 percent. The most recent Mason Dixon Poll had shown Barnes ahead 48 to 39 percent last month with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points."

I suppose we could have had a real-life Invasion of the Body Snatchers occur overnight and the pod people overwhelmingly favored Republithugs. Or the election could have been stolen via unauditable, easily rigged black box voting machines.

We report, you decide. Fair and balanced, dontcha' know?

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. This is Incredible.....

and very surprising. I would have thought falling gas prices would have helped the repubs since some people seem to think that oil prices are the sum total of our economy. It will be interesting to see what effect the ABC "crockudrama" has on these numbers.

What could possibly account for a 2 point advantage in Aug, jumping to 12 points in Sept? Whatever it is, I guess we should keep doing it.

:edited for spelling

[Ignacio Upton]

16. Wait a couple of more weeks

It depends on how far gas prices drop, and they are also not the only factor in and of themselves. They were lower about a year ago, and yet people were still complaining a lot back then.
Also, gas prices aren't the only issue. There's still anxiety over Iraq, and while the economy is "fair," people's wages and income have been stagnant.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

18. I think when news reports say the prices now are "only" $2.70/gal

or whatever the setpoint, people respond by thinking "I can't believe we're supposed to be glad it's "only" $fill in the blank". It wasn't that long ago that $2.00/gal was considered outrageous.

They've jacked with the prices too long, and most people clearly see the upward trend, in spite of occasional small drops. MKJ

[Tarheel_Dem]

22. Well some prognosticators are saying....

gas could be around $2/gal by Thanksgiving. I hope it's just coincidence, and that big oil isn't playing politics with the price of gas. Some people may be fooled, but I think people are so pissed about Iraq, that we can actually pull this one out.

Here's hoping :toast:

[ProgressiveEconomist]

29. OPEC recently decided not to change their price targets. They well

may want to keep Republicans in power--Homeland Security Hysteria has allowed them to put away hundreds of billions in the last six years, and oil-exporting countries want to keep the cash flowing by any means necessary. Except maybe Venezuela.

[stepnw1f]

17. Some See the Gas Prices Being Manipulated

for political reasons. And those same people now believe Iraq is all about Oil afterall. Remember all the excuses for rising prices? Well those excuses have been exposed as lies since there is no credible reason for the sudden drop in prices.

You can fool people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all of the time.

[ktowntennesseedem]

42. Ding, ding, ding... we have a winner!!!

You're exactly right, I lot of folks I talk to and a lot of the "water-cooler" talk I get the chance to listen to sound the same. Everyone is relieved to be paying a little less at the pump, and hope the price keeps coming down, sure. But I don't hear anyone giving the GOP any credit for the falling prices.

If you believe they have no influence over the price of oil (yeah, right!), then you can't give them any credit at all, no matter how low it drops. And if you do believe they can influence the price, then you have to ask why did we have to wait till an election cycle for any relief, and won't that guarantee the prices will start climbing again on Nov. 8.

No, IMHO I don't see much boost for Repugs on this one; in fact it just might backfire. (I sure hope it does!)

[LSK]

21. Bush was on vacation in August, but hes been back since then

Maybe most people cant stand the sight of him?

[Tarheel_Dem]

23. LOL......

Don't know about them, but I sure can't :rofl:

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

13. Those August numbers gave the R's false hopes...

Now the infighting among the R's should be fun to watch.

[warrens]

14. It's looking like Illinois may swamp a lot of GOP incumbents

Even in token races, the Dems are starting to catch up. There isn't a lot of race-by-race polling yet, but things are going even bluer ever faster now that people are paying attention. A lot of Repukes who thought they had safe seats are starting to sweat. And the ones in competitive races are begging the GOP for more money, fast.

[wake.up.america]

30. I want the democrats to win and win big and stay in. I want to see America

back on its feet, back to being respected, leading the world in human decency, something which has been sorely missing. America will be safer and the rest of the world will be safer when America comes to grip
to reality.

[Amonester]

36. Yes. We're Missing You.

[wake.up.america]

49. with reality - not to reality, I should have written.

America's standing has gone down, making America less safer and with fewer friends upon whom they can rely.

[Ignacio Upton]

15. That last generic ballot was an outlier

No other poll showing the generic ballot had things that close three weeks ago.

[bluestateguy]

19. As long as it's a double digit lead, we can win the House

Anything less--a single digit lead--will only get us peanut pickups in the House.

[LSK]

20. Could most Americans be totally sick and tired of TERRA TERRA TERRA??

it was really close in on Aug 18 but jumped to its biggest lead now. Was Aug 18-20 about the time Rove put plan FEAR TERRA FEAR IN action?

[RoveRage]

25. Why do I get a sick feeling in my stomach that this is another setup?

How many times have we seen it happen?

Yeah, I'm a cynic....but an experienced one.

[bdamomma]

27. Welcome to DU RoveRage

setup??? we have to be ready for whatever they shovel to us, we have to shovel it back to them.

[LSK]

28. if it was a setup, then the headlines would be about how close it is

If you start seeing headlines about it being too close to call, then worry. But I have not seen that yet. Most of the talking heads are already conceding the House.

BTW, welcome to DU.

[ronnykmarshall]

31. When I see it, I'll believe it.

Chickens / Hatching / Counting

You get the picture?

[Claire Beth]

32. Let's hope...

the dem's don't figure out a way to BLOW IT!

[damntexdem]

33. Yes, the Dems need those Dubya war speeches, ...

especially the 'nonpartisan' ones, in order to push the Dem advantage even higher. And the Dems need a truly-large advantage to overcome GOP vote fraud.

[IWantAChange]

34. Don't forget to factor in

the 'Diebold' effect. Anyone that thinks these numbers are any reason for euphoria has forgotten the exit polls from the 2004 Presidential election that were declared 'flawed' by the network anchors.

[civildisoBDence]

35. I hear the sound of the tide turning

Not the bogus "high tide lifts all boats," but a real sea change washing the Republicans out of power.

Newsprism

[mvd]

37. I think the Gallup trend looks good

Gallup has a tendency to make a little conservative momentum look big - thus the 2%. As an aside, I'd like to show this to Jonathan Last from the Philly Inquirer, who was touting that 2% difference. :puke:

[truthisfreedom]

38. Americans are fully aware that the rethugs and the terrorists use the very

same tactics... fear, fear, fear. and we're sick of it.

[0rganism]

39. *sigh* if only...

At this point, even excluding the possibility of compromised electronic voting systems and other outright election fraud, the GOP's capacity for manipulating the electorate has barely been tapped.

[Danger Mouse]

40. Interesting...

So now Bush needs to get on the phone and call his good buddy Bin Laden and say 'Hey, Osama ole buddy! I got a favor to ask ya! We need a terra threat or plot or somethin' like that, think you can manage it? We got an election to win!'
But anyway...
These poll numbers are encouraging. Hopefully, many of those cantidates in the GOP facing tough races will start to become desparate. The more desparate they become, the more stupid mistakes they make. And considering Bush's propensity for stupid mistakes, we can only imagine the boners he'd pull in desparation. He may very well nuke Canada!
...or something to that effect.

[Maryland Liberal]

41. 2006

We Need to get 66 Dem Senators so we can impeach you know who..

[steve88]

44. I have dreams about that...

Watching impeachment proceedings against the war criminal who is currently occupying the White House...

[mvd]

45. To both of you - welcome to DU!

:hi:

[steve88]

47. Thanks - Glad to Be Here!

Took awhile to get my login password but it finally came today...

[Divine Discontent]

48. WELCOME TO DU!

ah, wouldn't that be nice, to watch impeachment proceedings on *!


www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<<--- check it out! antibush prodem stickers/shirts

[doctor_garth]

50. watch these leads vanish in November

as the GOP flips on the switches of Diebold machines all over the country.

Are Democrats in congress ever going to WAKE THE FUCK UP!