Many historians see little chance for McCain

[villager]

Source: Politco

Many historians see little chance for McCain

David Paul Kuhn

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

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Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080615/pl_politico/11090

[bluerum]

1. Thats what I kept saying in 2000 and 2004. We must be vigilant against

election fraud and election theft.

[villager]

4. absolutely -- but we must set up the narrative against fraud *now*, so taking to the streets

...will be fully understandable -- inevitable -- when/if they do it again...

[elocs]

7. Democrats certainly were not as vigilant in 2004 as they should have been.

When somebody all but tells you they are going to pick your pocket, and then they do it, vigilance cannot be considered to be one of your chief attributes. The Republicans all but told us that they were going to steal the 2004 election, and then they did. Should Democrats be proud of their efforts to prevent that Republican stolen election? Are we absolutely sure that our pockets won't get picked again?

[yardwork]

17. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice....won't get fooled again.

[yardwork]

16. Yes. Democrats won the White House in 2000 and 2004 but it was stolen.

The corporate-owned media made those elections close enough to steal. Expect the same extremely biased reporting and dirty tricks by the Republicans. We must be vigilant.

[Kolesar]

2. Memo: go for the gutter since you have nothing to lose

--turd blossom (aka Karl Rove, from Texas)

[Faygo Kid]

3. The Repukes have just two options: Cheat (of course), and make the Swift Boaters look thoughtful.

They are going to make the past two elections look clean and thoughtful compared to the ugliness they are about to unleash.

I still say Bush has many surprises in store for us. If not him personally, then the Cheney cabal. They will not go quietly. We are in for some extraordinary events between now and November.

[StClone]

5. So it will be another nail-biter

It will be a Dagwood sandwich from McCain.

Thick slices of bologna, smeared thick with zesty fear sauce, toss in some green$, all between two slices of Pimp-for-the-nickel topped by truth on a toothpick.

[Phred42]

6. It's the Corporate Media's job to make it APPEAR to be close

to make it more plausible when the steal it again

[mcollier]

9. Getting tough out there...

The McCain Campaign is taking another idea from the Obama Campaign and have launched a new website devoted to fighting rumors and political attacks, http://therealmccain.com

[Phred42]

15. Internally they probably call it: The Ministry of Truth

[nerddem]

19. wouldn't they NOT want people to know the real mccain?

oh yeah, "real" in republicanspeak isn't the same "real" as for normal people

[nyc 4 Biden]

24. i do not think the McCain people put up that website...

it is anti-McCain.

http://therealmccain.com

EDIT: to add link and spelling

[merwin]

23. They do it for the ratings, plain and simple.

Money trumps honesty now, and they will do whatever they can to make it seem like an edge of your seat horse race.

They "media" has no stake in the outcome. Individual companies or employees may, but not the media as a whole. The media, on whole, is concerned with profit, as it is comprised of corporations whose sole objective is to make profit for its shareholders.

[liberal N proud]

8. Watch for a change at the GOP convention

swapping nominee for a different candidate.

[pattmarty]

18. Won't happen. If they did that, it would surely be suicide, right now it will just be a blowout.

[Warren Stupidity]

10. "The polls show a dead heat" - they do?

Poltico can't help but introduce the current Big Lie into everything,



Some dead heat.

[jcla]

11. Ayeah... Bush shouldn't have won TWICE!

We got to get out and vote for CHANGE and OBAMA!

[Journeyman]

12. The only chance the Republicans have is for McCain to lose. . .

George W. has left the nation in such a shambles, it's difficult to imagine how anyone can set things aright. Another four years of McSame would doom the Republicans -- and they know it. There best hope is for a Democrat to inherit W's disasters. Then, whichever way it goes -- if the Democrat can fix the problems, or if they prove uncorrectable in one or two terms -- the Republicans may be in a position to stage a comeback. It may take more than two or even four election cycles, but they'll have the opportunity. Unless, that is, McSame is elected, and all the disasters coming down the pike end up piled unequivocally on their doorstep.

[Acadia Blue]

22. You are so correct

[KelleyKramer]

13. "the polls show a dead heat"

In the very first sentence, I stopped reading right there, because that is ...

a complete and total lie.

[klyon]

14. Who were his last two picks?

If they were Gore and Kerry then he was correct. If not too bad.

McCain could still win if the media plays the same games again and the voting machines are flipped.

If the media portrays the "war " as going well, McCain can win.
If the economy does better this summer from the Clinton style tax relief we all just got, McCain can win.
If the housing market turns around. McCain can win.
If the Dems don't have public hearings on Bush/ Cheney crimes or impeachment proceedings, McCain can win.

It looks like it should be a sweep but don't count on it.

edited to add
If Obama doesn't respond to Republican attack ads quickly, convincingly, and forcefully, Mc Cain can win.

[northernlights]

20. the tax relief

won't make a dent. The vast majority of people are using it to pay down mountains of credit card debt and/or pay for gas.

And there's no chance in hell the real estate market will suddenly improve this summer. Another wave of subprime foreclosures is due to hit this fall. The market won't hit bottom before then, assuming that is even the bottom.

Credit Suisse predicts 5 more years of foreclosures, with ultimately something like 1 home in 8 foreclosed on.

It won't matter if Iraq suddenly looks good, because after a year or 2 of the msm ignoring the resurrection of the taliban, Afghanistan and bush's failure to "stay the course" is suddenly coming back to the front page.

[Politicalboi]

21. I still think

These polls are off. Dead Heat my ass. McCain can't even sell out a stadium in his own state with Bush. Can you imagine if Obama went to Chicago and couldn't sell out the event. How can these polls be so close? I see a repeat of Clinton/Dole 96. I'm happy to see that some have questioned these polls.