STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 23

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 23, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 89
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2830 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2555 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2846
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 22, 2008

Dow... 8,519.21 -514.45 (-5.69%)
Nasdaq... 1,615.75 -80.93 (-4.77%)
S&P 500... 896.78 -58.27 (-6.10%)
Gold future... 735.20 -32.80 (-4.27%)
30-Year Bond 4.09% -0.11 (-2.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.62% -0.09 (-2.30%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Here Comes the Pain
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

“Reaping the Whirlwind”

Rounds I and II – the asset bubbles breaking and the credit crisis – will soon be mostly behind us, but the effect on the real world of economic output lies, unfortunately for all of us, almost entirely ahead. Employing our usual historically loaded armchair technique, we have been writing for several quarters that global economic weakness will be substantially worse and will last substantially longer than the official forecasts. We maintain that view even though official forecasts have dropped considerably…

I am sure the market does not yet get the full extent of future earnings and economic disappointments, nor does it easily accept how low trend line P/Es are. (Oh yes, I remember now. P/Es should be higher because of much improved stability and better economic management!) In fact I believe it will take at least another year for the truly dreary global outlook to be fully appreciated and priced in.

Jeremy Grantham
GMO Quarterly Letter, 10/2008

Last Wednesday came the release of September retail sales, which were down right horrible, and this before the big October market swoon that will certainly weigh on consumer sentiment going forward. For most of this year the weakness in retail sales has been concentrated to housing-related industries and the auto sector, with the only significant strength in retail sales coming from gasoline stations and food & beverage stores. While weakness in retail sales was confined to the two predominant sectors mentioned above, it appears that consumers are indeed retrenching as weakness is spreading to other retail sectors. For example, electronic & appliance stores, as well as clothing & accessory store retail sales showed a negative year-over-year (YOY) rate of change in September. The breakdown of current retail sales on a YOY rate of change basis is shown below, with negative rates of change shown in red.

-see fugly table data-

There are only four sectors of retail sales that are growing at a 3%+ YOY rate of change, with half of the sectors representing non-discretionary items (gasoline station sales and food & beverage store sales). The other two pockets of strength are general merchandise (3.4%) and nonstore retailers (3.1%). The strength in general merchandise is coming from strength in warehouse clubs and superstores (Wal-Mart, Costco), where general merchandise sales ex warehouse clubs and superstores, which is essentially department store sales, came in at -2.93% in September, revealing that consumers are shifting their spending towards lower cost producers. The strength in nonstore retail sales is from a consumer shift towards online sales, a trend that has been in place for years. Select retail industry charts are given below, both of which show marked deceleration.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[fasttense]

10. Interesting charts at the link.

I wonder if corporations and our free market government will ever realize that sales and the US consumer market is spiraling down because the only jobs remaining in the US are service sector McJobs. Of course using up all the home equity seems to have made matters worse.

Oh a few lucky people get government jobs or a mid level management jobs, at least for awhile. When they get fired or laid off, they have no other choice but to pick up a couple of McJobs, cleaning tables, sweeping floors.

Seems the uber wealthy CEOs and idle rich have squeezed just about everything they can from the American middle class. It took Republicons 30 years of trickle on economic policy to destroy the largest consumer market in the history of the world.

[ozymandius]

13. Clearly, we are on the brink of a new day in American economics.

It may feel like starting from scratch. Infrastructure neglect and manufacturing erosion combine to make our stance going forward at this point disadvantageous when compared to our economic conditions in years past.

Case(s) in point: When manufacturers moved their operations to China some factories took their infrastructure with them - down to the last nut and bolt. The same happened when a Chinese company bought an American one. Factor transportation costs into the price of goods' transport and the overseas manufacturing model dos not work too well. Factor, again, that displaced American workers, who used to manufacture the goods they purchase, are working for lower wage jobs that afford less discretionary spending. Consider one more factor: proponents of free trade, an idea that hastens the decline of America's manufacturing prowess, believe that investment could be equally traded for work as a means to income generation.

This model is broken.

I do not believe in any shortcuts to return our strength to where it once lived. We must start making locally the items we purchase locally.

[Roland99]

15. "We must start making locally the items we purchase locally."

Bingo!!

Well said.

[ozymandius]

21. Gracious thanks.

I am not a protectionist. But then I do not believe in pitting one developed nation's manufacturing body against that of an emerging economy. We all lose under any circumstances.

[Tansy_Gold]

30. Well here's a thought ---

What if we started "free-trading" the import and export of intellectual property so EVERYONE could have the benefits of non-tangible "assets" but we kept the physical production "copyrighted" so to speak.

In other words, you can have my IDEAS but you can't have my STUFF.


Tansy Gold, with lots of ideas but (looking around at the mess in her office) lots of "stuff" too.

[Roland99]

35. Global conglomerates that are too big to fail are too big to function properly

They may be able to protect their shareholders' investments as growing parts of the globe counteract sinking parts. But when all the parts are sinking, everyone hurts and hurts badly.

Buying locally cuts out unnecessary expenses, mostly the transportation factor, but also other levels of in-between/middlemen. Support those in one's community and the community can strengthen.

[DemWynner]

38. We always try to do that

Our grocery store will carry local items and we always try and buy local. Farmers markets are great as well as several stores we have that sell local artist items.

[wordpix]

144. campaign slogan for the rest of the campaign in places like Detroit!

[tclambert]

29. Love your updates, Ozymandius

Back when Lee Iacocca was urging everyone to "buy American" I realized I should do him one better and buy local--buy from the car company my brother works for (GM) and from the dealer where my next door neighbor worked.

In a way, we vote with every dollar we spend on who we want to benefit from our spending, on where we want jobs to go, on what kind of America we want, on what kind of future we want.

[MadinMo]

34. Well said!

Being one who lives paycheck to paycheck I tend to buy whatever is cheapest. But I like your statement, "In a way, we vote with every dollar we spend on who we want to benefit from our spending, on where we want jobs to go, on what kind of America we want, on what kind of future we want."

[ozymandius]

60. Mr. Iacocca is great.

He fully understands the value of work and cared for the American worker. He is probably too old now for a position as Labor Secretary.

His last screed on the neo-con economy was scathing. Ooh! how it burned.

[54anickel]

33. Ozy, did you catch this one in LBN? Wealth gap creating a social time bomb

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3559546

Source: The Guardian

Growing inequality in US cities could lead to widespread social unrest and increased mortality, says a new United Nations report on the urban environment.

In a survey of 120 major cities New York was found to be the ninth most unequal in the world and Atlanta, New Orleans, Washington, and Miami had similar inequality levels to those of Nairobi, Kenya and Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Many were above an internationally recognised acceptable "alert" line used to warn governments.

"High levels of inequality can lead to negative social, economic and political consequences that have a destabilising effect on societies," said the report. "(They) create social and political fractures that can develop into social unrest and insecurity."

According to the annual State of the World's cities report from UN-Habitat, race is one of the most important factors determining levels of inequality in the US and Canada.

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/23/population-egalitarian-cities-urban-growth


Your "new day" comment made me think of a U2 tune....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eojrrMa6Uss&feature=related



Full lyrics at http://www.u2tour.de/discographie/lyrics/New_Day.html


We're gonna take ya back now, come on
I like the way this is going down
Ladies and gents
Yo I'mma do this for the kids check it out
Here we go, yo


We don't need no education (yeah)
Says a young man sitting in class (yeah)
School is out 3 o'clock on the dot (yeah)
Beef with some thugs, he got shot (yeah)
Turn on your television (yeah)
Martin Luther King just had a dream (yeah)
Take this dream and apply it to your life (yeah)
Shorty's selling crack, is a talking job


To all my refugees, enough respect
To all my juveniles, enough respect
To all my war children, enough respect
Now Bono won't you sing the hook, come on


Keep your head up
(Uh keep your head up)
Cause a new day's gonna come
(Every country got a ghetto, come on)
And look towards the sun
Some got the darkness all around
(Everybody sing this part right here)

<1 -Wyclef>
Mama, mama
You know you raised me with no father figure
I wanna take this time to thank you
Even though I'm doing Life
Alright
Mama, mama
You know you raised me with no father figure
And taken by machine gun trigger
Out for giving me life


Yo, yo turn the page ready the news today
People getting fired, some getting wild
Looting on the streets cause the dogs gotta eat
(Grrr!) By any means necessary
Turning over the hour glass
Gotta get it straight before it's too late
Cause I don't wanna be behind that gate
Now everybody sing the hook

more....

[ozymandius]

43. Hi 54anickel. I saw that and thought of social engineering.

Classically attributed, this is segregation. Atlanta has attempted to resolve many of the societal problems associated with economic/racial segregation. Techwood Homes and Grady Homes are gone, replaced with mixed income developments. Chattanooga, TN has also done a great job in redistributing its poorest residents from concentrated areas, dispersing them among developments that also sell homes on a sliding scale, depending on income. Chicago has had to deal with similar issues with its Cabrini Green public housing project. The results are: lower crime rates, lower school dropout rates, healthier family structures, pride-of-place statistics being higher, etc.

New developments in Atlanta's city center, as well in municipalities like Decatur, Georgia, have made strides to integrate residents into these new dwellings based on a sliding scale of price-to-income ratios. However, I do not know where the extra former residents have gone. There certainly are not enough homes available for those displaced by the demolition of these crime-addled projects.

We have seen reverse effects of these project dissolution initiatives with increasing income disparities. The aforementioned laudable integration initiatives cannot keep pace with the growing poor population. I get a sense, too, that there is a lack of attention to this multi-faceted problem among city and state governments besieged by dropping revenues needed to fund basic operations.

What should we do now to stay any decline? I don't know.

[54anickel]

70. Thanks Ozy, I'd heard Atlanta was making great strides the last time I was there, but that was

pre-maladmin days of the mid to late 90's. Thanks for the update. I gotta run for the day...

[TalkingDog]

41. There is a thought that it's micro-economics and

micro-entrepreneurship or bust.

What might end up helping is the intertubes. Pre Net, a business would basically survive on local trade. With the Net, a specialty company that couldn't make it due to lack of local support can get enough of a toehold via the Net to survive.

At least that's my fantasy of how it will work......

[Tansy_Gold]

50. On socialism, arts & crafts, and William Morris

If I didn't have a semi-sorta day job, I'd expand on this further, but since there's so much info on Morris at http://www.marxists.org/archive/morris/works/1894/hibs/index.htm, I'll let you folks peruse that site and enjoy.

But the point I want to make is that there is a place for industrial production -- which Morris hated but which is the only feasible way of making certain utilitarian items -- and there is a place for craft. Allen Eaton, in chronicling the home crafts of the Appalachian mountaineers in the 30s, knew it too. (http://www.wcu.edu/craftrevival/people/alleneaton.html). It wasn't about making as many as you can as fast as you can and hoarding the cash. It was about the soul and the non-material satisfaction. ("Art in its true sense, whether it be folk or fine, is the expression of joy in work.")


Tomorrow I'll do my first craft show of the 2008-2009 holiday (and in Arizona, tourist) season. I dabble in a lot of crafts, and one of the things I tell potential customers is that I try to keep everything I make unique, interesting, attractive in its own right, environmentally conscious, and functional.

Some of my fellow crafters and artisans do this as a hobby, but many also do it supplement modest incomes or to provide an income where there is nothing else to supplement.

Please, for those of you who can, support your local artists and artisans. Talk with them and find out how and why they make what they do. Understand their inspiration and their motivation. Though some of what's hand-made is crap, some of it is so beautiful, so wonderful, so inspirational in and of itself that it transcends the monetary price.

I'm not advocating that you pay $1500 for a hand-pieced baby quilt -- I've seen them that high and higher -- but I am asking that you consider whether the bargain is in buying one really good item or in buying five or ten cheap pieces of shit.

Buy locally indeed.


Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

57. You get what you pay for.

The Scottish strain in my genetic code asks the question: "How many times do you want to buy that widget?" Buy a good one the first time. You will pay more in that moment. But your chance of returning to the store over and over and over again to buy the same widget are slim.

[Tansy_Gold]

62. There are Gerries from Aberdeen in my genes, Ozy

When you mix that with a little poverty, it's a healthy lesson for life!

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

08:30 Initial Claims 10/18
Briefing.com 455K
Consensus 465K
Prior 461K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

46. Initial Claims @ 478,000 - last wk rev'd down 2,000

25. U.S. 4-week average continuing claims at 5-year high
8:30 AM ET, Oct 23, 2008

26. U.S. 4-week avg. new claims falls 4,500 to 480,250
8:30 AM ET, Oct 23, 2008

27. U.S. continuing jobless claims fall 6,000 to 3.72 million
8:30 AM ET, Oct 23, 2008

28. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 15,000 to 478,000
8:30 AM ET, Oct 23, 2008

[UpInArms]

81. U.S. FHFA home price index down 5.9% in past year

22. U.S. Aug. FHFA (OFHEO) home price index falls 0.6%
10:08 AM ET, Oct 23, 2008

23. U.S. FHFA home price index down 5.9% in past year
10:08 AM ET, Oct 23, 2008

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to $67 as OPEC prepares to cut output

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rebounded modestly from a 16-month low to rise above $67 on Thursday in Asia on expectations OPEC will move to shore up plummeting prices with an output quota cut on Friday.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose 60 cents to $67.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

The contract Wednesday fell $5.43 to settle at $66.75 a barrel, the lowest close for a front-month contract since June 13, 2007.

.....

The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday crude inventories jumped by 3.2 million barrels last week, above the 2.9 million barrel increase expected by analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, and inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, rose by 2.2 million barrels.

.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 1.25 cents to $2.05 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained 1.86 cents to $1.59 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery was steady at $6.77 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. Cheaper gas doesn't mean anyone's spending freely

HOUSTON – It's almost like a surprise stimulus check: Gas prices have fallen so fast that the nation has found itself with an extra $125 billion to spend. But don't expect the freed-up cash to pump much life into the economy.

Filling up for less than $2.50 a gallon in some places hasn't done much to boost confidence — not when disappearing jobs, sagging home prices and the financial meltdown are everyday worries.

....

One in three Americans fears losing a job, half are worried about keeping up with mortgage and credit card payments and seven in 10 are anxious about shrinking stock and retirement portfolios, according to a recent Associated Press-Yahoo News poll of likely voters.

With worries like that, saving $20 or $30 on a tank of gas doesn't amount to much of a silver lining.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081023/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_prices_economy_4

[Warpy]

108. I can report that traffic is still very light here in central NM

even with the "bargain" price of $2.69/gallon for regular at the local robber baron's station.

The only big car I've seen with a temporary tag on it is an old Caddy, spotted yesterday with the beginnings of a low rider refit.

[Festivito]

4. Debt: 10/21/2008 10,467,391,133,731.10 (UP 2,501,489,179.00) (7% of report-avg)

(Yesterday was high. Today the public debt is hardly up at all. The Intragov debt rose negligibly.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,189,702,466,098.06 + 4,277,688,667,633.08
UP 55,042,092.95 + UP 2,446,447,086.01

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 35,256,262,563.66.
The average for the last 30 days would be 24,679,383,794.56.
The average for the last 32 days would be 23,136,922,307.40.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 14 reports in 21 days of FY2009 averaging 31.62B$ per report, 21.08B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 91 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 12.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/21/2008 10,467,391,133,731.10 GWB (UP 4,739,195,337,549.53 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01 <--Not even realized yet. Over 1T$ in one fiscal year.
Borrowed in FY2009: 442,666,236,818.70 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $802,759,330,472.03 in last 33 days.
That's 803B$ in 33 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 79% of that highest year ever only in 33 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 33 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3557436&mesg_id=3557498
Good morning all.

[ozymandius]

20. Where is there a concise T-note auction schedule?

I'm feeling a bit lazy to go searching for it. Do you happen to have one in easy access?

[antigop]

65. Try this link.. ..

http://treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFAnnce

[DemReadingDU]

24. Maybe some is the interest on the amount we've borrowed?

seems like we are digging ourselves in a bigger and bigger hole

[Festivito]

147. Debt: 10/22/2008 10,495,669,391,439.70 (UP 28,278,257,708.60) (84% of report-avg)

(It's like they are alternating days. One high, next low, next high, ....)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,225,624,748,437.89 + 4,270,044,643,001.81
UP 35,922,282,339.83 + DOWN 7,644,024,631.27

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 33,800,153,596.63.
The average for the last 30 days would be 23,660,107,517.64.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 15 reports in 22 days of FY2009 averaging 31.40B$ per report, 21.41B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 90 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 12.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/22/2008 10,495,669,391,439.70 GWB (UP 4,767,473,595,258.13 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01 <--Not even realized by M$M yet. Over 1T$ in one fiscal year.
Borrowed in FY2009: 470,944,494,527.30 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $831,037,588,180.63 in last 34 days.
That's 831B$ in 34 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 82% of that highest year ever only in 34 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 34 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3559624&mesg_id=3559632

[ozymandius]

6. US foreclosure filings up 71 percent in 3Q

WASHINGTON – The number of homeowners ensnared in the foreclosure crisis grew by more than 70 percent in the third quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2007, according to data released Thursday.

....

That's bad news for anyone who lives nearby and wants to sell their home. While foreclosure sales are booming in many areas, those properties are commanding deep discounts and pulling down neighboring property values. "It has a pretty significant impact in terms of pricing," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president for marketing.

....

Six states — California, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Nevada — accounted for more than 60 percent of all foreclosure activity in the quarter, with California alone making up more than a quarter of all U.S. foreclosure filings.

Detroit and Atlanta were the only cities outside California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona to make RealtyTrac's list of the 20 hardest-hit metropolitan areas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081023/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates

[ozymandius]

18. more info

81,312 homes lost to foreclosure in September

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The housing crisis still has a choke hold on America: In September, 81,312 homes were lost to foreclosure according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties.

A total of over 851,000 homes have been repossessed by lenders since August 2007.

.....

The dip in foreclosure filings from August to September was largely thanks to housing laws that were relaxed in several states.

"Much of the 12% decrease in September can be attributed to changes in state laws that have at least temporarily slowed down the pace at which lenders are moving forward with foreclosures," Realty Trac CEO James J. Saccacio said in a written statement.

For instance California, which has been one of the hardest-hit states by the housing crisis, has a new law that requires banks to contact struggling homeowners at least 30 days before delivering a notice of default (NOD). That's helped drastically slow the number of foreclosure filings there.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/23/real_estate/foreclosures/

---

And if states had not lent a hand? I do not want to think what this picture would look like.

[Roland99]

45. Heard this morning RealtyTrac has or will have a report that 1 Million*homes for sale are bank-owned

That's a huge % of the homes on the market.

[ozymandius]

7. Asia stocks fall on profit fears; SKorea off 7 pct

HONG KONG – Asian stocks fell Thursday, with South Korea's market sinking more than 7 percent, as a barrage of downbeat company forecasts deepened fears of a global recession.

But in a positive sign, regional markets pared losses in afternoon trading as investors bought beaten down shares.

....

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average tumbled 7 percent at the open but recovered some to closed down 2.5 percent at 8,460.98. Traders said the turnaround in Tokyo was partly due a Wall Street Journal report that the Bush administration is considering a $40 billion plan to help limit home foreclosures.

South Korea's market was hit hardest. The benchmark Kospi fell nearly 10 percent at one point and closed down 7.5 percent at 1,049.71. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 3.6 percent to 13,760.49 after falling more than 6 percent earlier.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081023/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

22. Seoul, Hong Kong extend retreat; Tokyo cuts losses

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets sold off Thursday, retreating on fears about the impact of a global recession, with South Korean and Hong Kong indexes plunging to multi-year lows while Japanese stocks managed to pare losses by the close of trading.

Still, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Average dropped to its lowest level in more than five years. Shares of exporters such as Mazda Motor Corp. and Nintendo Co. got slapped by a rally in the yen against other major currencies and after steep losses on Wall Street overnight.

The Nikkei 225 benchmark ended 2.5% lower at 8,460.98, bouncing off the day's low at 8,016.61, while the broader Topix index fell 2% to 871.70.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index declined for a third straight session, closing 3.6% down at 13,760.49 to mark its lowest finish since May 27, 2005.

....

South Korea's Kospi dropped as much as 10.3% at one point during the session, before recovering. The index finished 7.5% weaker at 1,049.71, the lowest close seen since July 2008.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Hong-Kong-Seoul-extend-retreat/story.aspx?guid={1FB41F8E-703F-4079-83FA-FC201FD7E1C8}

[ozymandius]

8. Goldman Sachs to cut about 3,260 jobs: source

...

That represents about 10 percent of the total staff of the New York-based bank, the source said. Goldman Sachs recently converted to a bank-holding company.

...

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49M24120081023

very brief

[NeoConsSuck]

9. Another Link

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122472818682961421.html?mod=rss_Business

[ozymandius]

11. more info here

Goldman to Cut 10% of Jobs as Downsizing Wave Grows

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is preparing to cut about 10% of its 32,500 employees, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign of deepening job losses on Wall Street.

The cuts, expected throughout the New York-based company, underscore how much even the mightiest securities firms have been shaken by the 16-month credit crisis. Despite avoiding the catastrophic mistakes that sank Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Goldman is suffering from the drought in investment banking and trading.

....

In September, with the company's work force at a record high, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar indicated he expected the company's head count to be flat or higher for the rest of the year. But the credit crisis has deepened since then, forcing Goldman to make the cuts.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122472818682961421.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[machI]

12. Kicked and Recommended

[coyote]

14. Looks like a crash is imminent

either today or tomorrow. Technicals are really ugly. Pull up a 30 minute 20 day chart of the S&P....you will find a symmetrical triangle which is about to break south. Targets if this monstrosity breaks for S&P500 is 700, but more likely around 600 to 650 where next support is. The VIX (the fear index) set a new high yesterday at around 81.

If the triangle breaks (~900), and goes passes 3-5% pass the break point, the it will be confirmed. Every technician on the net is looking at this this thing.

[ozymandius]

16. Could you share a non-subscription link?

I'll agree with the nasty technical data. A quick glimpse at today's WrapUp will list major technical areas that are in major decline. To translate this into stock data is tricky business. Futures have been notoriously unreliable at the early parts of the day. Currently the Dow and S&P are up slightly. Nasdaq - well... it's the Nasdaq: volatile trending toward down, as usual.

The Russell 2000 has closely followed the Dow's movement over the past year. So the low caps are not doing any better than the high caps.

[coyote]

17. sure....

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=64986

[ozymandius]

19. Thanks.

I think both the SPX and NDX will finish leg C up of an expanded flat tomorrow morning and then dump hard into the close.

This has been a theme for awhile: dump hard before the close. We've seen instances of 'banging the close' with an upswing at rare moments.

[Roland99]

39. Make sure you read downthread, too, that thread is a couple weeks old

An interesting link from the last page:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=68395

[Roland99]

74. Tomorrow just might be very, very ugly.

[ozymandius]

23. The world's banking system shows some disturbing trends

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The world's financial system is such a mess that no one is really quite sure where to begin fixing it.

It's as if all those runs on the banks withdrew banking knowledge along with deposits.

But the system's problems are far greater than the public or the people in the banks seem to realize. That's what some have concluded after looking over preliminary results of an ongoing banking study being conducted by IBM.

.....

The idea behind this global study is to find out how the financial pros think -- not just on a particular day, but over time. That's why the full study won't be finished until March 2009. However, the researchers were surprised by some of the early findings and wanted to pass them on. What they are unveiling is just a taste.
Much of what the IBM team, led by Suzanne Duncan, found can be summed up this way: Bankers and financial professionals are flabbergasted. That's my assessment, anyway. You be the judge. Here are some of the preliminary conclusions:

* The No. 1 issue that keeps bankers and financial professionals awake at night is a lack of strategy - or, as Duncan put it, a "business model identity crisis" -- according to nearly 80% of board and C-level executives. "They don't know what they want to be when they grow up," Duncan said.

* The other 20% are just worried about surviving.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/problem-banks-even-bigger-you/story.aspx?guid={8895813B-7514-4043-A3AA-2A183631D72D}&dist=TNMostRead

[Demeter]

26. It's More That the Credit Crash Revealed the Ignorance In Banking

This situation didn't happen by accident. It happened by willful ignorance and neglect.

[ozymandius]

27. I heard Nouriel Roubini describe the lack of vision as indicative of i

institutional barriers. People who work in these industries have limits imposed upon them due to the scope of the business. Lateral thinking is one luxury academia has over corporate enterprise.

I ponder if this is the case when Bernanke and Paulson do not acknowledge the dangerous magnitude of the derivatives markets.

[natrat]

37. or perhaps said 2 are just evil and are intent crashing markets for their own(neocon?) purposes

[ozymandius]

47. That is another example of lateral thinking.

Neither a NYME oil trader, nor a mortgage broker, nor an investment banker who specializes in tech startups has time to think about Credit Default Swaps and the like. Their focus is narrowly gauged on their own turf - not so much concern about what the other guy is doing.

There are positions that fit the description and offer opportunity to fulfill the purpose you describe. By nature, such thought is lateral - across economic disciplines. Chaos capitalists exist. Though they are rare. Thank heavens there are no more of them than we currently have to deal with.

[Roland99]

75. Evangelical Investing: Just Gotta Have Faith

[DemReadingDU]

25. Columbus, Oh - National Century Trial Wednesday's update

10/22/08 National Century jurors hear wiretap of ex-CEO Poulsen
Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:11 PM
By Jodi Andes

Federal prosecutors tried to bring evidence of a bribe full circle this morning by playing Lance K. Poulsen's tape-recorded phone conversations for jurors.

The former CEO is on trial for fraud connected to the collapse of National Century Financial Enterprises, which filed for bankruptcy in November 2002. The case is in its 11th day before Judge Algenon L. Marbley in U.S. District Court in Columbus.

FBI Special Agent Jeff Williams testified about the tapes he obtained through a court-approved wiretap last year.

In 2007, Poulsen was recorded talking to his friend Karl A. Demmler about how the government's star witness, Sherry Gibson, could change her testimony. Poulsen said he didn't want Gibson to lie, but he would give her money if she remembered facts the way he saw them.

In the recorded conversations, Poulsen does not call Gibson by name. He refers to her as that "particular person" or "Mary." She was given bad advice by her attorney to plead guilty, Poulsen said.

Through Demmler, Gibson relayed concerns she had with a 1995 investor report she had already talked to federal prosecutors about. Poulsen noted that the report only had a stamp of his signature. And there was nothing written on that report to show Poulsen knew the numbers were false, he said.

Poulsen said he would send Demmler $6,000 -- $5,000 for "Mary" and the rest for Demmler. Make sure the amount sent to "Mary" is not the same amount as was deposited in Demmler's account, Poulsen told his friend.

"I understand," Demmler could be heard saying on the recording.

The money would be "a loan that never needs repaid," Poulsen said.

Both Poulsen and Demmler were convicted in March of witness tampering and obstruction of justice. Poulsen was sentenced to 10 years in prison; Demmler has yet to be sentenced.

Gibson completed her testimony this morning after more than three days of questions. Defense attorneys have said they could begin presenting their case Thursday.

National Century bought accounts receivable from health-care providers and collected them for a fee. The company raised up-front money for the providers by selling secured notes to private investors.

Federal prosecutors are alleging that the company collapsed because National Century gave millions in unsecured loans to health-care providers for years. The companies that received the most loans were owned by National Century founders, Williams testified previously.

When the company collapsed, investors lost close to $2 billion.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/22/poulsen23.html?sid=101



10/22/08 Jury hears tapes of NCFE's Poulsen
Wednesday, October 22, 2008 - 5:30 PM EDT
by Kevin Kemper

Secretly recorded conversations detailing an alleged scheme to tamper with a witness was the focus of the government’s case against Lance Poulsen Wednesday.

Poulsen, the former CEO of Dublin-based National Century Financial Enterprises Inc., sat in court listening to phone conversations between himself and a close friend that the government taped in the summer of 2007.

The government alleges those tapes reveal Poulsen and his friend Karl Demmler attempted to bribe Sherry Gibson, a government witness, whose testimony would prove Poulsen ran one of the largest frauds the government has ever investigated at a private company.

Despite pleading not guilty, Poulsen and Demmler were found guilty by a separate jury in March of witness tampering.

Over the last week, the government has used evidence presented at Poulsen’s witness tampering trial against him in his fraud trial. The 68-year-old Poulsen has maintained his innocence.

Poulsen is standing trial in U.S. District Court in Columbus on charges he orchestrated a $2.84 billion fraud at National Century. Poulsen founded National Century, a health-care financing company that collapsed into bankruptcy in 2002.

FBI Special Agent Jeffrey Williams took the stand to provide exposition to the recordings.

The government played more than half a dozen conversations and voice mails it intercepted between Demmler and Poulsen. In most of those calls, Williams explained that the person cryptically referred to as “Mary” was actually Gibson.

Poulsen and Demmler also talked openly about the government’s case against National Century, though referring to the government in some instances as “our friends.”

In one call, Poulsen told Demmler to expect $6,000 to be sent to his company Paragon Legal Research. Demmler could keep $1,000 for himself, Poulsen said, and send $5,000 on to “Mary.”

When the subject came up of what Poulsen wanted Gibson to say to the government, Poulsen said he didn’t want her to lie. Demmler suggested Gibson wouldn’t have to lie, just “prevaricate” and have “memory loss.”

“Yup,” Poulsen responded.

Under cross examination, Peter Anderson, Poulsen’s attorney, asked Williams about the first dinner meeting between Gibson and Demmler. Gibson testified earlier in the trial that Demmler offered her a bribe on behalf of Poulsen at that first meeting.

That dinner meeting was not recorded, but Williams testified that the record of what happened in the meeting is documented in a summary report called a form 302.

According to the form, Poulsen instructed Demmler to tell Gibson that Poulsen wanted to make her “whole.”

Anderson said the document didn’t indicate anything about Poulsen asking Gibson to lie.

Williams responded the FBI trains agents to write down facts only in 302 documents; not the opinions of those it interviews.

Anderson also asked Williams about Gibson’s refusal to be interviewed by attorneys defending other National Century clients.

Anderson suggested that had Gibson agreed to an interview with defense attorneys, Poulsen would not have had to ask Karl Demmler to ask Gibson to focus on certain events that occurred at National Century over others.

Williams said he couldn’t testify to a hypothetical.

Poulsen’s attorneys suggested in both his witness tampering trial and in the fraud trial that Gibson never committed fraud because National Century’s governing documents allowed executives to do what the government alleges is illegal.

Anderson also took Williams through transcripts of the recorded conversations, highlighting when Poulsen said he wasn’t asking Gibson to lie and that he believes Gibson’s lawyer railroaded her into pleading guilty. Anderson asked Williams if Poulsen could have known he was being recorded.

“No,” Williams said.

The defense attorney also asked Williams about e-mails Poulsen sent to his attorney that the government intercepted. Anderson raised the possibility that those e-mails suggested Poulsen was keeping his attorney informed of his communications with Gibson through Demmler.

In several e-mails intercepted by the government, Poulsen asked his attorney if he could suggest the names of potential new lawyers for Gibson.

Williams said he didn’t believe asking for a list of attorneys was the same as telling his lawyer about all of his conversations with Demmler.
http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/10/20/daily28.html


edit to add this morning's update...
10/23/08 Attorneys battle it out over Poulsen tapes
Alleged bribery of National Century exec at issue
Thursday, October 23, 2008 3:17 AM
By Jodi Andes

Lance K. Poulsen's recorded conversations were offered as evidence yesterday in his trial in connection with the collapse of his company, National Century Financial Enterprises.

But whether they proved the former chief executive's criminal culpability in the nation's largest private fraud case depended on who was asking the questions.

Peter Anderson, one of Poulsen's defense attorneys, said that the tapes showed Poulsen wasn't trying to bribe Sherry Gibson, a former vice president of the health-care lender, to forget certain facts when testifying against Poulsen.

She's the government's key witness in the fraud case.

Prosecutor Leo Wise used his questioning of FBI Special Agent Jeff Williams to try to show otherwise.

Wise said Poulsen's use of coded language, evident on tapes made by the FBI, along with the use of a middle man in conversations with Gibson and attempts to use phone lines thought to be secure show that Poulsen was trying to conceal the bribe.

Poulsen is being tried in U.S. District Court in Columbus on fraud charges tied to the company's implosion. When Dublin-based National Century filed for bankruptcy in November 2002, investors lost nearly $2 billion.

Poulsen's taped conversations with his friend Karl A. Demmler show that Poulsen believed Gibson got bad advice from her attorney when he advised her to plead guilty in connection with her role in the company's collapse, Anderson said.

In addition, Poulsen never met with Gibson or gave her any money, Anderson noted. Poulsen could be heard on the tape telling Demmler that he didn't want Gibson to lie, the defense attorney pointed out.

Poulsen's own taped statements show he did want Gibson to forget how she plugged investor reports with false numbers, the FBI agent testified.

In return, the National Century founder said he would also loan her money, "but of course that loan never needs to be repaid," Williams said, quoting Poulsen.

Furthermore, Poulsen did tell his attorney that he wanted to help Gibson find a new lawyer, but it's clear Poulsen didn't tell his own attorney everything he was offering to do for Gibson, Williams said.

"Only the three amigos know about the three amigos," Poulsen said on the tapes referring to himself, Demmler and Gibson.

Both Poulsen and Demmler were convicted in March of witness tampering and obstruction of justice in connection with their contacts with Gibson. Poulsen was sentenced to 10 years in prison; Demmler has yet to be sentenced.

The federal prosecution team of Wise, Doug Squires and Kathleen McGovern are expected to rest their case today after presenting one more witness.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2008/10/23/poulsen23.ART_ART_10-23-08_C8_KGBM9FO.html?sid=101



Link backwards to read Tuesday's articles, and older
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3557436&mesg_id=3557544

[NC_Nurse]

28. It's been mildly amusing listening to my RW dad try to spin the daily bad news.

We are currently living here in ATL with my parents (Mom's ill) and every day when I come home from work,
my dad tells me the stock market news and givs me the Fox/CNBC talking points. Even he is starting to look
sheepish when he tries to keep up his blind allegiance to the Repubs.

It was hell living here at first (moved in August) but now the winds have left the sails, if you know what I mean. ;-)

My husband hasn't even tried to look for work down here. No point. So he's not even counted in the bogus unemployment numbers.

It's definitely a good time to be living in your parents house. :D

[Dr.Phool]

32. Tell me about it.

I'm headed up to the Carolina's to visit my right-wing father next week. I usually dread such visits, as I spend time out in the garage smoking and drinking whenever he puts on O'Reilly, or Faux.

My mom died almost a year ago, and he's got a large house to himself. Paid off. And he's thinking about selling. I told him to hang on, because of the market conditions, and we might be moving in with him.

He made a funny remark the other day, and he was serious. "I think the best guy they could have run for president now, and I'd vote for him, is Dennis Kucinich". He never talked like that when we lived in Cleveland.

[TalkingDog]

42. Hey Dr. man, if you are driving through Statesville

on 40 or 77, let me know. Me and the Spousal Unit would love to buy you a beer coffee....

[Dr.Phool]

63. I'd love to, but we're headed up I-95 to Florence, then over to Loris.

I'll keep that in mind though. I do head up I-77 on occasion.

Thanks. Looking forward to it. :hi: :toast:

[ozymandius]

131. A trip up I-75/I-85 will put you

within a mile of my place Dr. Phool. Keep that in mind should you head this way.

[Dr.Phool]

135. Thank you. I will.

And if you get far enough down I-75 north of Tampa, let me know!

I haven't been that far up 75 in a couple of years. When I used to drive up to Cleveland, 75 or 77 were both about the same distance for me.

[Joe Chi Minh]

89. Top marks to your old man for finally knowing which side his bread's

buttered on. I mean REALLY knowing.

In the meantime, Obama can work his own wonders for the US and the world. I believe there are a lot of Caucasians who will be very pelased that the status of Afro-Saxons will finally be raised by an order of magnitude.

[Alcibiades]

40. It's time to buy!

That's my favorite. They are still touting stocks.

[tclambert]

31. Here's a tepid silver lining.

Future news: "In his 2010 State of the Union Address, President Obama was able to point to solid increases in the stock market indices, and solid decreases in the jobless rate, foreclosure rate, and in the federal deficit."

Thank you, George W. Bush, for setting your successor up for such remarkable success.

[Roland99]

36. 8:47am futures not so hot anymore

DJIA INDEX 8,444.00 -113.00
S&P 500 887.80 -15.00
NASDAQ 100 1,222.50 -25.50

[Roland99]

44. 9:31am - Uhh...futures didn't mean squat apparently

DJIA 8,581.50 +62.29 +0.73%
Nasdaq 1,629.25 +13.50 +0.84%
S&P 500 904.48 +7.70 +0.86%
Dow Util 350.07 +1.97 +0.57%
NYSE 5,656.36 +25.89 +0.46%
AMEX 1,333.77 +5.26 +0.40%
Russell 2000 504.96 +2.99 +0.60%
Semcond 220.29 +0.59 +0.27%
Gold future 708.00 -27.20 -3.70%
30-Year Bond 4.02% -0.07 -1.61%
10-Year Bond 3.57% -0.05 -1.38%

[ozymandius]

48. We've seen that happen quite a bit.

:shrug: Wonder why that is?

[fascisthunter]

49. I Noticed That with my Extremely Limited Knowledge of the Market

oh well...

[Wednesdays]

52. Don't blink!

:wow:

[Roland99]

53. Well, that was a short rally. A head fake? (BTW, Gold under $700)

DJIA 8,487.99 -31.22 -0.37%
Nasdaq 1,607.64 -8.11 -0.50%
S&P 500 893.35 -3.43 -0.38%
Dow Util 355.69 +7.59 +2.18%
NYSE 5,595.55 -34.92 -0.62%
AMEX 1,318.30 -10.21 -0.77%
Russell 2000 500.36 -1.61 -0.32%
Semcond 215.55 -4.15 -1.89%
Gold future 698.50 -36.70 -4.99%
30-Year Bond 4.03% -0.05 -1.32%
10-Year Bond 3.57% -0.05 -1.27%

[Dr.Phool]

64. I sure picked the right time to get into gold, huh?

:sarcasm:

I sure picked the wrong week to quit drinking.

[xyouth]

68. You and me both.

Trying to keep myself relaxed.

[Roland99]

69. All the gold bugs are coming outta the woodwork

Not a good sign. but wow...so much going into treasuries.

[mile18blister]

77. Perhaps we need to start a gold investors support group.

I thought I was being really clever bailing on the stock market and getting into gold and silver.

At least gold and silver will never be worth zero...

[AnneD]

98. Never put your eggs....

in one basket.

[Dr.Phool]

106. You can afford a basket?

I flunked basket weaving in school.

[AnneD]

126. I didn't flunk basket weaving, didn't need it....

I keep it in that spot known to all women that wear a bra. It has safely hidden all my valuables since puberty (small pets and other treasures).

[TrogL]

129. It's time the Gold Bugs got what was coming to them

I'm sick of listening to them.

[mile18blister]

137. Ouch.

I'm not rejoicing over people losing money in stocks, ok?

[Dr.Phool]

138. I'm not a gold bug.

Never have been. Just figured some money would be safer there than in Wachovia.

[wordpix]

145. Do you know how many streams are wasted from gold mining? Devastating to the environment

Do the Earth some good and DON'T INVEST in gold.

[AnneD]

97. But if you can't find gold anywhere....

why is it so cheap she said to no one in particular as she pondered her next purchase.

[Mojorabbit]

103. This is my question too

I have a little bit of PMs and I am amazed that they are falling in price in this atmosphere and that they have also suddenly become scarce at the same time.

[coyote]

51. Second throwover of the major triangle on S&P 500

I think a break down should be coming fairly soon....it´s do or die time for the bulls.

[Roland99]

54. VIX at 70. TED Spread = 2.50.

[gopbuster]

85. t´s do or die time for the bulls......you got tthat right! We are right there. nt

[UpInArms]

55. dollar watch (late again!)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.713 Change +0.109 (+0.14%)

Dollar Faces An Expected 50bp Rate Cut And Recession Confirmation

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar_Faces_An_Expected_50bp_1224717396940.html

How long can the dollar’s rally last? That is the question circulating in fundamental circles across the market. With risk aversion hitting a new level today, it is clear that the currency’s safe haven status is easily trumping all other considerations. However, where does the greenback stand if volatility settles and the market is no longer vying for the safety inherent in deeply liquid US Treasuries?



A Closer Look At Financial And Consumer Conditions


The health of lender and investor confidence is of primary concern for policy makers and investors – even after the global liquidity injections and bailout efforts. Though the panic that was so prevalent a few weeks ago seems to have been curbed, risk appetite continues to plunge, the probability of further bank failures is rising, and – most importantly of all – the market is still vastly overleveraged. Even though the world’s largest central banks have guaranteed short-term funding, investors and businesses will still look to reduce their risk exposure – it will merely come in a more orderly fashion.


While the markets are still on high alert, the consumer sector has yet to really feel the full weight of an economic slump and second round effects of the financial crisis. Evidence these conditions are approaching are growing however. The seizure in lending rates has already had its impact on revolving credit and longer-term loans like home mortgages. Banks are actively raising reserves, boosting their own lending conditions and passing on the additional regulations that the government has passed. As for the economy, 3Q GDP numbers are expected to confirm the first step into a recession next week.

...more...

Can Falling Crude And Momentum Keep The Canadian Dollar Plunging?

http://www.dailyfx.com/analyst_picks/index.html

The Canadian dollar has been uniformly weak across the currency market with tempered interest rate and growth forecasts meeting the reality of a sharp drop in commodity prices (which share a frequent correlation with most Canadian dollar pairs). Still firmly steeped in its aggressive selloffs - but with some pairs meeting some form of support - our DailyFX Analysts look for setups that either hold with the trend or take advantage of a potential reversal.

Currency Strategist
Terri Belkas
My picks: Short USD/CAD
Expertise: Fundamentals Combined With Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 - 3 Days

USD/CAD is currently holding above long-term resistance, which may provide a decent short-term selling opportunity. Though this is clearly against the bullish trend, risk/reward potential shows that it may be worth it. The zone of resistance I'm looking at is between the 50% fib of 1.6190-0.9056 at 1.2618 and the May 2005 high of 1.2731, so stops should be placed above the high. A conservative target would be near 1.2350/58, but if the pullback is sharp enough, I think we could see a drop toward former resistance at 1.2120 where we also have the 61.8% fib of 1.1740-1.2740.

...more...

[Roland99]

58. A dollar bubble to replace the oil bubble which replaced the housing bubble which replaced dot-com..

and down we go...faster and more volatile bubbles.

[coyote]

56. Buckleup Folks...This is it!

We´re going down hard and fast.

[ozymandius]

59. Nasdaq leads the way.

9:57
Dow 8,458.84 Down 60.37 (0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,601.34 Down 14.41 (0.89%)
S&P 500 890.61 Down 6.17 (0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 3.583% Down 0.035
NYSE Volume 619,293,562.5
Nasdaq Volume 265,508,781.25

volume gaining momentum too

[coyote]

61. The volatility is insane.....

down 30 handles and back up 20 handles in 20 minutes on the S&P futures. Used to take a half day just to move 10 handles a couple of months ago....no we move 30 in 10 minutes. Crazy.

Definitely a sign of an unhealthy market.

[TrogL]

130. WTF is a "handle"?

:shrug:

[bemildred]

140. VIX appears to have hit 95 today.

:wow:

[formercia]

66. Are the neo-liberal chickens coming to roost in Latin America?

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=UKLN44400720081023
Spanish Santander, BBVA's LatAm dream could turn sour
Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:15am EDT

By Judy MacInnes

MADRID, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Leading Spanish banks Santander (SAN.MC: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and BBVA (BBVA.MC: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) could soon see their Latin American expansion ambitions turning sour as concerns surface over another potential Argentine default, analysts said. But perhaps more worrying for these two banks is their substantial exposure to Mexico and Brazil's economies, which are starting to show cracks due to the global economic downturn. "The key risk for BBVA and Santander is not so much from a possible default in Argentina, but from the impact of this on neighbouring economies, particularly Brazil," said Fox Pitt, Kelton analyst Jagoba Garcia.

On Tuesday, the Argentine government announced plans to nationalise private pension funds, a business in which BBVA is a leading player in the country.

The news sparked deterioration in market sentiment towards other Latin American countries and increased fears that the Argentine government could default on debt.

--snip--

Looks like the boys are taking a hit.

[DemWynner]

67. Tough to believe Greenspan's disbelief

The former Federal Reserve chairman is in full-frontal legacy defense mode, and he's not doing a particularly convincing job.
...
According to his prepared testimony before the House Oversight Committee, Greenspan lamented that "those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief."
...
The truth is that the executives at financial institutions had very little interest in protecting shareholder's equity. Sure, they had bonuses tied to stock performance, but awards were distributed annually. And the awards certainly didn't have strings attached that allowed for claw backs due to underperformance or even insolvency.
...
And Greenspan was with the world's financial institutions when they blundered, and plundered, into the current mess.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Tough-believe-Greenspans-disbelief/story.aspx?guid={930A969D-74D0-4E17-BA42-89DD45A97549}&dist=hplatest

[Tansy_Gold]

72. "self-interest" is a Randian hallmark

The "logic" in Ayn Rand's so-called philosophy was that everyone would always work in their own long-term logical self-interest and that that alone would keep everyone "moral." Unfortunately, such a philosophy left no room for rogues.

I was barely 19 when I first read "Atlas Shrugged" and I had no background in economics or logic or philosophy whatsofuckingever. But the first thing I wondered about was well, what happens if someone decided not to play along?

That was January 1968. I think my question has been answered.




Tansy Gold

[MattSh]

82. I congratulate you...

I started to read it, but didn't make it too far. Fifty pages maybe?

I had read somewhere, I guess, that this was a work of genius, or something like that.

It was just so freaking dense to me that I lost all interest early.

I actually made it through "War and Peace", and that was dense too. ;)

[snot]

134. i read it in college, became an *sshole,

decided it wasn't working so well for me after p*ssing off all my friends.

[Roland99]

71. 11:03am - DJIA +250. Don't see any specific triggers.

[antigop]

73. FDIC's Bair Suggests Guarantees for Loans

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122477138431362499.html

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair suggested the government give banks a financial incentive to turn troubled loans into more-affordable mortgages.

Under the proposal, the government would share in any future losses on the new loans with lenders.

"Specifically, the government could establish standards for loan modifications and provide guarantees for loans meeting those standards," she said. "By doing so, unaffordable loans could be converted into loans that are sustainable over the long term." (Read the full text of Bair's prepared remarks.)

Ms. Bair has long been an advocate of the federal government taking a more aggressive, streamlined approach to help borrowers stay in their homes. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, she detailed the steps the FDIC has to modify a pool of mortgages it acquired from failed thrift IndyMac Bancorp earlier this year.

Ms. Bair said that the program was still in its early stages, but that more than 3,500 borrowers have accepted modification proposal. On average, the modifications have cut monthly payments by more than $350, she said.

[specimenfred1984]

76. What a bargain! I'm so smart...er...ahh...wait a minute

just dropped 300 points really fast...DOH! That's OK, I'm in it for the long-term, meaning I'm a brainwashed mediabot who's so proud to be stupid that I'm well beyond thinking for myself or being able to grasp anything complex. I think I'll go gossip about William Shatner now and offer a few more war criminals redemption.

[gopbuster]

78. Nobody wants to let loose of shares down here and

we are deep into oversold territory and stretched hard. Notice MACD with the 12,26,9 parameters on the INDU which coincide with index prices fairly well. Historically MACD 12,26,9 never stays at the bottom more than about 15 days with showing a V bottom and heading back up for relief. We are at that point but only about 8 days into it.

RSI on the 14 day parameter is showing a test back to 30 or so. If can reverse there will indicate uptrending.

Shorts and sellers won't sell here without a serious trigger and out of fear of buyers below. We are that far stretched, and those that are holding shares are in stronger hands, showing signs of even slow accumulation off of this bottom, slowly building accumulation momentum to the upside each time it tries to stretch down and test.

Short term I think we are setting up IMO for a slow relief rally over the next 15 days or so after we can start moving back up and without a serious downside trigger.


Here's a chart that was posted yesterday for those who may be interested in Elliot wave stuff. As with Elliot wave, opinions can vary, but I think he has a strong argument and along with the other basic indicators he may be right.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24698925914&a=113364392&listNum=23


Of course the question being at what overhead resistance number does the selling come back in when it gets up there (if it can). Tightening up the downtrend lines I show the 9600 area as resistance for now.

Short term stuff only

[specimenfred1984]

80. I didn't know that the corrupt "free" markets and interventionists now controlled

all technical indicators like the RSI and MACD. In fact, I've been reading that Paulson himself may have just bought the ADX, all stochastics and a few neural networks along with every data mining analysis package out there! Sarcasm aside, throw the charts out the window in corrupt markets, fascists trade in huge moves.

[gopbuster]

83. Thanks...you can throw your charts out the window if you like

but I'll hold onto mine as they still prove to give some guidance. I don't like flying blind, thank you very much.

[specimenfred1984]

92. You read that article about the 37-yr-old hedge fund trader who retired?

He said something about people who thought they were educated.

[gopbuster]

90. EDIT... "We are at that point but only about 8 days into it." should read about 10 days

[coyote]

79. Looks like the triangle is about to confirm the break....

target 200 points down minimum from 900. Could be another head fake, but wave looks pretty impulsive down.

[gopbuster]

84. It's hugging but only on the close will it confirm. I always give it 3-5%. nt

[gopbuster]

86. The actual apex intersection doesn't look to hit for a few more days out

in the 950 area. Cracking the uptrend on the close as long as it stays within 3-5% we may be ok for a possible reversal.

I think it needs relief rally first before going lower. JMO

You are right! It's do or die right here.

[specimenfred1984]

95. Gentlemen, imagine you had a couple hundred million to throw around

at any given 1 or 2 minute period, could do that repeatedly any day you wanted, had no laws to follow and concerned yourself with things like national security, the entire world economy and maintaining power, you wouldn't be to focused on some technical indicators followed by dinky little traders.

[gopbuster]

100. We understand that and they can certainly take this thing where they want

to. The PPT already showed their hand below 8000 and they are the ones who's interest it is in protecting this market. The bulls are looking pretty weak right here but the sellers are unwilling as of yet to take it on down.

Day traders are not the only ones that work the charts. The PPT, Mutual funds and other institutions utilize them as well. What you may not be aware of is that the charts are like a living organism and provide showing us the areas where the buyers and sellers are as well as showing the dynamics that are physically at work within the internals of supply and demand. Physical realities that manifest themselves within the numbers/charts based on distribution and accumulation.

[Roland99]

101. And who's to say it's not orchestrated to hit certain lows and bounce back occasionally

Look at how consistently (over the last few months) big drops were followed by big recoveries the next day (at least initially)

Setting up huge dump, pump, and dumps allows them to buy low, push up the prices, and dump it again.

let me don my :tinfoilhat: but there are a very few that I believe are getting unbelievable fat in cash, whether individual or privately held...well...maybe a mix.

[specimenfred1984]

102. Yes, especially the "gov't intervention Mondays" with 800 point runups

It's definitely being orchestrated to sell off slower than it would, giving the elite/criminals/banks time to settle up. But something I've noticed is the "interventionists" like really slow periods in which to intervene, not clear technical indicator points. That's why they pick Mondays, post 3pm time frames, lunchtime between 11:30 and 1:30 and non-report times, there's a lot less interference at those times.

I've got an extensive background in technical analysis and have studied it for years, it's goes right out the window when pure corruption rules the markets. There are as many fake signals as real ones in times like these, it's as useful as flipping a coin.

[Roland99]

107. And, like clockwork...post-3pm and DJIA +10

[gopbuster]

112. You still have institutionals & other investors providing supply and demand dynamics

to a large degree

[gopbuster]

105. Another way to look at the way bottoms are formed is that everytime

it retests it is like a reloading of shares (accumulation) into stronger hands and forming a stronger base to work up off of. The powers that be know this. It may just need some more reloading time at a lower area which is why the retest to find if the buyers are still there and to accommodate the furtherment (is this a word? lol) of accumulation for that stronger base of shares.

[Roland99]

87. 1:52pm - Pushing new session lows. Russell2K taking a beating. Greenspan still shocked.

DJIA 8,375.53 -143.68 -1.69%
Nasdaq 1,561.23 -54.52 -3.37%
S&P 500 875.28 -21.50 -2.40%
Dow Util 349.27 +1.17 +0.34%
NYSE 5,474.47 -156.00 -2.77%
AMEX 1,287.79 -40.72 -3.07%
Russell 2000 476.04 -25.93 -5.17%
Semcond 212.03 -7.67 -3.49%
Gold future 719.00 -16.20 -2.20%
30-Year Bond 3.97% -0.12 -2.84%
10-Year Bond 3.54% -0.08 -2.10%

[fascisthunter]

88. Does Anyone Think We Will Dip Below 8000?

...that is in the near future, and not today?

[gopbuster]

110. Nobody knows :) nt

[bemildred]

142. Yah.

IMHO anybody that thinks we are done yet is thinking it's like in the past. I think we are treading new ground.

[coyote]

91. We just entered the gates of hell...

I think there is no stopping this break now. It might come for one last kiss, then it´s goodnight.

[Roland99]

93. Is S&P500 breaking 860 the sign we're heading for a freefall? at 861.63 now. DJIA -252

[coyote]

94. Looking at the chart...

we are on a one way elevator to hell. Futures just broke 856. I think we might break the old lows of 837. This is ugly ugly ugly.

[gopbuster]

96. I don't know coyote, just because it cracks IMO doesn't mean

we are headed to a lower low then the actual bottom. It may mean the chart resets a little lower up off the bottom, but we are so far stretched already I don't think it can freefall without something monumentally negative.

Doesn't mean it won't retest and reload somewhat and still feel pressure but I don't think it is the end all, yet.

This thing needs and wants a relief rally badly.

[antigop]

99. CNBC video: Bush Treasury Dept redacts more bailout contracts

http://action.credomobile.com/sirota/2008/10/cnbc_clip_bush_treasury_dept_r.html

Topping it off, former Reagan official William Seidman piles on, making the point that government officials should behave differently than corporate executives, and that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is using the redactions to keep heat off himself and from a public that believes he's going to use his authority to give away truckloads of taxpayer cash to his former Wall Street colleagues.

What this suggests to me is that even parts of the Establishment and the business community are waking up to the kleptocracy - and specifically, to how the intersection of kleptocracy and this bailout bill could continue to undermine confidence in the economy.

If part of what is ailing the economy is an understandable lack of psychological confidence in Corporate America and our government, then blacking out huge swaths of government-corporate contracts is not the way to turn that psychological tide - it's a way to exacerbate it, especially since the redactions come after both Congress and the Bush administration promised unprecedented transparency.

Indeed, some of these contracts are with companies like Ernst & Young, which were intimately involved in companies like Lehman Brothers and AIG, which are at the center of the meltdown. Shouldn't taxpayers have a right to see - in real time - how our money is now being spent on those same companies? And shouldn't the Treasury Department know that when it publicizes contracts with redacted sections, it only contributes to the overall sense that our government is acting in bad faith?

[wordpix]

146. Grrr. WAKE UP, AMERICA - BushCo & henchman Paulson are stealing the cash before leaving Dodge

[Dr.Phool]

104. Market's on crack again.

[TheWatcher]

111. Looks like the 3 PM Faries showed up again for a quick fix.

211 Points in 14 minutes based on Nothing.

This is all becoming so transparent. Virtually the same as yesterday, only they actually managed to get it Green this time.

Oh but it's all just "normal Market Action".

Purely technical and fundamental.

Not to mention that Keeping GS above $100 is a matter of National Security.

[Dr.Phool]

115. It's moving just the way my Ouija Board said it would!

[MadinMo]

113. Death throes?

I was thinking today that the wild swings of the market make me think of a creature's death throes.

[fascisthunter]

109. why does a rally before closing always makes me think of this emoticon?

:puffpiece:

Don't they realize perception means nothing in the end?

[TheWatcher]

114. Place Your Bets! 3:30 Miracle Or 3:30 Calamity.

Which Script will they follow today?

How many new "Programs" to "Save The System" will the Fed Implement before the 4 PM Close?

Can they Keep GS above $100?

Such DRAMA!

[Dr.Phool]

116. The answers to these questions and more,

On the next episode of "Soap".

[TheWatcher]

119. Looks Like we got our answer.

They went back to their favorite weapon of choice.

Bang The Close with Synthetic Bullshit with such ferocity and swiftness that it can't be sold.

THANK GOD They "SAVED" Us Again.

But hey, with 7 minutes left, anything can happen.

Viva La Free Market!

[gopbuster]

118. Miracle, lol nt

[TheWatcher]

121. Notice how when the jets are turned off the whole thing just plummets.

Must be Millions of "Investors" "Taking Profits." with five minutes left.

:rofl:

[gopbuster]

125. Well we all know the MM's sell them

down to find the buyers or position themselves. Yep just like clockwork.

[gopbuster]

117. I just don't see how the ......

MACD with the 12,26,9 parameters on the INDU which coincide with index prices fairly well. Historically MACD 12,26,9 never stays at the bottom more than about 15 days with showing a V bottom and heading back up for relief. We are at that point and about 10 days into it. Especially as stretched as we are.

Can be explained away?

Not a perfect V bottom but what makes anyone think this time is any different and shows we are almost due for a relief rally, as weak and short term as it may be before we possibly move lower over the longer term.

I'll be the first to say I would sell at the top of a relief rally. Get TFO

[Name removed]

122. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dr.Phool]

120. The 15 minute manip---er---faeries arrived right on schedule.

200pt swing into the green.

[Roland99]

124. Rumors of McCain taking the WH?

According to CNBC.


From where? That IBD/TIPP poll that polled over 440 Conservatives and, at most, 100 Liberals and a few hundred Moderates?

The poll Sludge Report keeps touting.

[Dr.Phool]

127. I just saw that poll. Voters aged 18-24 voting McCain 77-22!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :spray: :spray: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :spray: :rofl: :spray: :rofl:

[Roland99]

128. yeah...check this thread that breaks down the apparent breakup of the sample polled >>>>>>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7574249

[antigop]

123. Alan Greenspan "now as clear as an empty Lehman Brothers office."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tough-believe-greenspans-disbelief/story.aspx?guid={930A969D-74D0-4E17-BA42-89DD45A97549}

The former Federal Reserve chairman is in full-frontal legacy defense mode, and he's not doing a particularly convincing job.
According to his prepared testimony before the House Oversight Committee, Greenspan lamented that "those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief."
Cue up Casablanca, and the "I'm shocked, shocked, to find gambling here," line from the Captain Renault character.
The truth is that the executives at financial institutions had very little interest in protecting shareholder's equity.

[ozymandius]

133. Does Greenscam mean that he lost money?

Jeebus. Maybe there is some justice in the world.

[dweller]

143. my new nickname for Alan G. is 'Flawed'

"Greenspan, 82, acknowledged under questioning that he had made a "mistake" in believing that banks, operating in their own self-interest, would do what was necessary to protect their shareholders and institutions. Greenspan called that "a flaw in the model ... that defines how the world works."

He acknowledged that he had also been wrong in rejecting fears that the five-year housing boom was turning into an unsustainable speculative bubble that could harm the economy when it burst. Greenspan maintained during that period that home prices were unlikely to post a significant decline nationally because housing was a local market.

He said Thursday that he held to that belief because until the current housing slump there had never been such a significant decline in prices nationwide. He said the current financial crisis had "turned out to be much broader than anything that I could have imagined."

Greenspan's much-anticipated appearance before the House panel came as the Senate Banking Committee held its own hearing on what the government is doing now to get out of the mess.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081023/financial_meltdown.html

rhymes with 'Claude'
dp

[ozymandius]

132. Miracle trading surge saves the day: closing numbers and blah blah

Dow 8,691.25 Up 172.04 (2.02%)
Nasdaq 1,603.91 Down 11.84 (0.73%)
S&P 500 908.11 Up 11.33 (1.26%)
10-Yr Bond 3.534% Down 0.084
NYSE Volume 7,229,598,500
Nasdaq Volume 3,176,432,500

Volatility continued Thursday as the Dow turned an early 1.5% loss into a 3.3% gain, but then saw the advance fade into a 3.2% loss when the index fell to its session low. The Dow rallied late in the session to finish 2.0% higher.

Exxon Mobil (XOM 70.39, +5.82) provided the Dow and the energy sector (+6.6%) with leadership during the session. The integrated oil giant posted a strong advance as oil rebounded 3% off its 16-month low to trade near $69 per barrel.

Oil is down by more than 50% from its July high as slower economic growth threatens to undercut demand for the commodity. With oil prices down so dramatically, OPEC is expected to announce production cuts at its emergency meeting tomorrow.

Slower growth expectations also have many companies cutting jobs. Jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 18 rose 15,000 to 478,000, surpassing the 468,000 claims that were expected. The four-week moving average actually dipped to 480,250 from 484,750, but a 10th consecutive month of nonfarm payroll declines is expected.

Weekly jobless claims came the same session that The Wall Street Journal reported Goldman Sachs (GS 108.58, -6.13) and Xerox (XRX 7.71, -0.27) will be cutting their workforces, and Dow Jones indicated that General Motors (GM 6.10, -0.09) will also be implementing layoffs of salaried employees. The cuts follow similar announcements in recent sessions from companies like Merck (MRK 28.85, +0.84) and Yahoo! (YHOO 12.65, +0.26).

With unemployment at elevated levels and economic headwinds stiff, spending on discretionary items is expected to wane. As such, online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 50.32, +0.33) issued a tepid outlook for the fourth quarter. Despite strong earnings per share results, the disappointing outlook led investors to push shares sharply lower early on. They rallied at the close.

In other earnings news, Altria Group (MO 19.58, +0.29), UPS (UPS 48.13, +1.74), and Dow Chemical (DOW 24.43, +2.32) all topped earnings expectations for the third quarter. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 18.05, +0.52), Eli Lilly (LLY 33.48, +1.37), and Amgen (AMGN 55.55, +5.85) also posted better-than-expected earnings. However, Amgen was the only company in the bunch to provide an optimistic outlook; its shares saw the largest gains.

In the end, eight of the ten economic sectors posted an advance. However, decliners in the S&P 500 had a slight edge over advancing issues.

[specimenfred1984]

136. "Free" markets, "free" speech, LOL

The only thing people are "free" to do is to be as stupid as possible. "Free" speech means going to a protest and being gang arrested, spied on, blacklisted and targeted. "Free" markets means deregulation of every crime possible only to bail out the criminals and shut down the "free" markets when the criminals start losing money.

Try speaking your mind in this culture, see what happens. It's best to just tow the line, be a good German, do not speak up.

[gopbuster]

139. Microsoft posts quarterly profit, sales gains

Microsoft posts quarterly profit, sales gains
By John Letzing
Last update: 4:15 p.m. EDT Oct. 23, 2008
Comments: 15
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Microsoft Corp. on Thursday posted a slight fiscal first-quarter profit gain and sales growth that topped Wall Street analysts' estimates. The Redmond, Wash.-based software giant (MSFT:
Microsoft Corporation
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MSFT 22.32, +0.86, +4.0%) said net income for the quarter ended in September rose to $4.37 billion, or 48 cents a share, from $4.29 billion, or 46 cents a share in the same period a year earlier. Revenue rose 9% to $15.06 billion. Analysts on average had estimated Microsoft would post earnings of 47 cents a share for the quarter, and $14.8 billion in revenue, according to FactSet Research


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/microsoft-posts-quarterly-profit-sales/story.aspx?guid=%7B0B414E2D-6F9F-4776-BEC2-A48612666B9E%7D&dist=msr_9

[gopbuster]

141. Here's the CNN link....

Microsoft beats Street but cuts outlook
The software giant reports profit and sales that were bigger than what analysts expected, but lowers its guidance in anticipation of a slower economy.



More Videos

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Microsoft announced Thursday that revenue and profits rose in its fiscal first quarter thanks to strong sales in its server and business software segments.

Looking ahead, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) said that sales and earnings for the second quarter and full year would be slightly lower than consensus estimates due to the economic slowdown. But shares of the software giant still rose more than 1% in after hours trading.

Microsoft's sales increased 9% to $15.06 billion in the three months ended in September, beating Wall Street's expectations of $14.78 billion, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

Net income rose to $4.37 billion, up nearly 2% from $4.29 billion in the same quarter one year ago. The company posted earnings per share of 48 cents, beating analyst expectations of 47 cents per share for the quarter.

More......http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/23/technology/microsoft_earnings/?postversion=2008102317

[coyote]

148. Looks like last nights close was a kiss back to the triangle

trendline. Must say, it suckered in a lot of bears at the breakdown, me included. However, it looks like it may have suckered the bulls to that this is a start of a new rally....I don´t think it is. If the breakdown was invalid, the the close of the day should have made a higher high, it did not. So it still looks valid that this is a start of the triangle break.

Looking at the world markets this morning, everything is red. Nikkei is down 10%. S&P futures down 50 handles. I be shocked if we can gap up in the morning, but have certainly been wrong before.

The bias appears to be that the triangle is still valid and we are going down.

Please be careful if you are in the markets.