STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 13, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 10, 2009

Dow... 8,083.38 +246.27 (+3.05%)
Nasdaq... 1,652.54 +61.88 (+3.89%)
S&P 500... 856.56 +31.40 (+3.81%)
Gold future... 883.30 -2.60 (-0.29%)
30-Year Bond 3.76% +0.10 (+2.65%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.93% +0.08 (+2.77%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. In case you missed the Market WrapUp posted Friday

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

I've Got Friends In Low Places
BY BRIAN PRETTI

I have to admit that Fed actions announced at the last FOMC meeting very much took me by surprise. Point being, I did not expect the Fed to begin monetization so soon. But surprised I should not have been. Not by a long shot. To be honest, Fed monetization of Treasury debt was inevitable in the current cycle. The recent global capital flow and realized/expected Treasury issuance numbers over the last half-year really tell the whole story quite elegantly. So although there has been plenty of ranting and raving about Fed monetization, myself included, I think it’s much more important to our forward investment decision making to simply address this fact objectively and unemotionally. The Fed really had no other choice. Moreover, as we’ll discuss, this is the beginning of monetization actions by the Fed. They’re just getting warmed up. THE issue now is not the monetization itself, but rather how monetization will influence investment risk and opportunities. I'll divide up in sections the highlight points I believe tell the story of the need for the Fed to monetize and why they will not be able to stop any time soon.

[Hugin]

6. Treasuries Advance as Fed Prepares to Buy Notes Today, Tomorrow (Bloomberg)

By Wes Goodman

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, following three weeks of losses, as the Federal Reserve prepared to purchase U.S. government securities today and tomorrow in an effort to cut borrowing costs.

Investors seeking safety during the first global recession since World War II increased holdings of Treasury and agency debt to record levels, a survey of fund managers by Ried, Thunberg & Co. shows. Government and central bank reports this week will show U.S. retail sales rose in March while a drop in factory production and slower inflation indicate the recession isn’t over, according to surveys of economists by Bloomberg.

“The Fed doesn’t want yields to go up,” said Kei Katayama, who oversees $1.6 billion of non-yen debt in Tokyo as leader of the foreign fixed-income group at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., part of Japan’s second-biggest investment bank. “They want at least stable, relatively low mortgage levels. The economy will struggle for a while.”

<snip/>

Fed Buying

The central bank plans to buy Treasuries due from March 2011 to April 2012 today and from September 2013 to February 2016 tomorrow, according to its Web site. The Fed has more than doubled the size of its balance sheet to $2.09 trillion in the past year by purchasing financial assets including Treasuries in an effort to spur growth.

Investors increased Treasury and agency holdings to 45 percent of their portfolios, matching the all-time high set in October 2002, according to Ried Thunberg, a research company in Jersey City, New Jersey. Agency debt is comprised mostly of securities sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest providers of funds for mortgages.

More... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFIAjCtra9wI&refer=home

______________________________________________________________________________________________

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $52 on IEA demand forecast

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to below $52 a barrel Monday in Asia after the International Energy Agency said it expects global crude demand to drop this year amid the worst worldwide recession in decades.

Benchmark crude for May delivery fell 77 cents to $51.47 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract on Thursday rose $2.86 to settle at $52.24 a barrel. Trading was closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

The Paris-based IEA, an energy policy adviser comprised of 28 countries, said on Friday that demand this year will likely fall by 2.4 million barrels a day to 83.4 million barrels, or 2.8 percent lower than last year.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery fell 1.10 cents to $1.47 a gallon and heating oil dropped 1.35 cents to $1.42 a gallon. Natural gas for May delivery sank 4.1 cents to $3.57 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. GM told to prep for bankruptcy filing: report

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters ) – The U.S. Treasury Department is directing General Motors to lay the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, even though the automaker has publicly stated it could reorganize outside of court, The New York Times reported on Sunday.

GM is operating under emergency U.S. government loans. It has been told by the Obama administration's task force overseeing its bailout that it must cut costs and reduce its debts in order to continue to receive aid.

The White House-appointed autos task force has given GM 60 days to come up with a restructuring plan and it is trying to determine whether the automaker can be a viable company.

.....

The newspaper said preparations are aimed at assuring a GM bankruptcy filing is ready if the company is unable to reach agreement with bondholders to exchange roughly $28 billion in debt into equity in GM and with the United Automobile Workers union.

A plan under consideration would create a new company that would buy the "good" assets of GM after the carmaker files for bankruptcy, the Times said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090413/bs_nm/us_autos_gm

[ozymandius]

8. GM bondholders prepare case against bankruptcy plan-WSJ

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp's (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) bondholders are preparing legal arguments against the automaker's bankruptcy plan, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.

A plan to split the corporation into a "new" company made up of the most successful units, and an "old" one of its less-profitable units, is seen as the most sensible configuration, a source familiar with GM's plans told Reuters last week.

The Journal said bondholders are worried that the process will push them to accept hefty losses on their investments. It said members of an ad hoc committee representing GM bondholders have made their concerns known to the Obama administration's task force.

....

The bondholders claim the company wrongfully pulled around $600 million from the Canadian subsidiary because company officials should have known the U.S. business was near insolvency, according to the Journal.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN1235413920090413

[ozymandius]

5. Credit Suisse starts shutting U.S. offshore accounts: report

ZURICH (Reuters) – Swiss bank Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) has started closing down the offshore accounts of U.S. clients who have not declared the money to the U.S. authorities, a newspaper reported on Sunday.

The Sonntagszeitung newspaper said the bank had about 2,500-5,000 U.S. clients with undeclared offshore accounts worth about 3 billion francs, without citing its sources.

The paper said Credit Suisse had started parting company with its U.S. offshore clients, giving them the option of moving their accounts to its CS Private Advisors subsidiary, which would report the accounts to the U.S. tax authorities, or writing them a check.

It quoted an unnamed Credit Suisse manager as saying the bank was only applying the new "zero tolerance" policy in individual cases for now but was considering a more general withdrawal from the U.S. offshore business.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090412/bs_nm/us_csuisse

[ozymandius]

7. China economy improves but deflation haunts Japan

BEIJING/TOKYO (Reuters) – China's economy is showing some signs of improvement, but a big fall in wholesale prices in Japan suggested the world's second-largest economy was sliding back toward deflation.

A jump in China's industrial output last month, along with a record rise in new lending, gave further credence to the idea that the bottom of the worst global crisis since the Great Depression may not be far away.

The solid data lifted the Chinese yuan, as well as stocks and copper prices in Shanghai, leading Asian equities higher.

.....

And while things were looking modestly brighter in China, the economic situation in Japan remained bleak.

Wholesale prices are falling at their fastest rate since 2002, March figures showed on Monday, as weakening domestic demand on top of falling commodity prices drives Japan toward its second bout of deflation this decade.

With interest rates already almost at zero, analysts say the Bank of Japan has limited weapons to fight deflation in the country's worst recession since World War Two.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090413/bs_nm/us_financial

[ozymandius]

13. Japan Producer Prices Fall at Fastest Pace Since 2002 (Update2)

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s wholesale prices fell at the fastest pace in almost seven years, adding to signs the world’s second-largest economy may return to deflation.

....

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey this month showed manufacturers expect the costs they pay for goods and materials to fall to the lowest level in seven years. Expectations of lower prices ahead can prompt consumers to delay purchases, eroding corporate profits and forcing firms to cut wages, causing a downward spiral in demand.

....

Prices tumbled a revised 1.6 percent in February compared with the same month a year earlier. They fell 0.2 percent in March from February, when they dropped a revised 0.5 percent, the central bank said.

The Bank of Japan’s overseas commodity index, which shows changes in costs including oil, steel, copper and wheat, slid 49.3 percent in March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aQBd.i0hOr.A&refer=economy

[ozymandius]

9. Action on AIG unit may cost taxpayers - WSJ

April 13 (Reuters) - The controversy surrounding American International Group Inc's (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) bonuses to employees could make the process of winding down the insurer's financial products unit more costly for taxpayers, the Wall Street Journal cited the unit head Gerry Pasciucco as saying.

Pasciucco told the paper that the controversy "hurt morale" and "stunned people such that our wind-down has slowed down."

"Taxpayers probably have been damaged," Pasciucco told the Journal, adding that 20 of the unit's 370 employees quit amid the controversy.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKBNG47817520090413

[ozymandius]

10. Bailed-Out Banks Face Probe Over Fee Hikes

The committee overseeing federal banking-bailout programs is investigating the lending practices of institutions that received public funds, following a rash of complaints about increases in interest rates and fees.

Since the Troubled Asset Relief Program was launched last October, banks bolstered by capital infusions have boosted charges on a wide range of routine transactions, hiked rates on credit cards and continued making loans criticized as predatory by consumer advocates. The TARP funds are intended to open lending spigots and make it easier for people to borrow money.

Last week, for example, Bank of America Corp. told some customers that interest rates on their credit cards will nearly double to about 14%. The Charlotte, N.C., bank, which got $45 billion in capital from the U.S. government, also is imposing fees of least $10 on a wide range of credit-card transactions.

Citigroup Inc., another recipient of government cash, is trying to entice customers to borrow at high rates. "You could get $5,000 today," Citigroup's consumer-finance unit wrote in fliers mailed to customers. The ads don't disclose that the loans often carry annual interest rates of 30%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123958015246312123.html

[imdjh]

33. Yeah, I love that one, "Use these NO TRANSACTION FEE checks....'

... To pay off higher interest rate accounts!

Higher interest rate accounts? Who do they think I have borrowed from, Don Corleone? And unless Americans are truly asleep and/or have no friends at all, then Chase Bank's recent scam with the $10 monthly fee, breach of the fixed rate life of the loan tansfers, etc.... then NO ONE is going to trust a special rate or balance transfer offer ever again.

Meanwhile, I noticed yesterday that Amscot's parking lot was full at 7PM on Sunday. They can't all be crackheads, so I'm assuming that shylocking to the poor or credit ruined is still a booming business.

[Dr.Phool]

36. Chase starting to duck and cover?

Maybe they're feeling a little heat.

I have 3 Chase credit cards. I never applied for one, but they bought out banks that I had cards with. Two of the accounts have high limits and a zero balance. Haven't used them in years, and they just sit in a safe deposit box. The third one has a high limit, at prime rate. I've had it for about 15 years, and use it for major purchases, and usually carry a balance. I'm just trying to pay it off, be done with them. I've never been late, and I send a payment before I even get my statement.

In January, I got a letter telling me that the terms would change in March to prime + 4 1/2%. I called them then, and told them I wasn't going to cancel my accounts now, but if my rate went up, I'd cancel them all and pay it off. They weren't budging then. I checked my statement online on the closing date last week, and the rate hadn't changed, so I sent my usual payment.

I got this letter in the mail this morning.

Dear (Dr, Phool),

In reviewing your account, we learned (real Einstein's here) that a change in terms notice was sent to you in error in January or February of this year. The notice stated that the new terms would effective on your account in March of this year. Please disregard the notice you received--those new terms will not be applied to your account. If you elected to close your account when you received the notice and would like to re-open it, please call us at the toll-free number found on the back of your card and the top of your billing statement. We'll be happy to assist you.

Your satisfaction is important to us, and we apologize for any inconvenience this issue may have caused you. If you have any questions please call us. For your convenience, we are available 24 hours a day.

Sincerely,
Cardmember Service.

-------------------------------------

There certainly is a change in their tone. Are a lot of people dumping them? Is Congress finally putting some heat on?

I went through the same shit with HSBC on my Union Plus card. They threatened to raise the rates, but didn't do it.

I hope this is a trend, because they've been fucking a lot of good customers.

So, to celebrate, sometime this month I'll charge $.99 at i-tunes and buy a new song. What should I get?

[Demeter]

43. Buddy Can You Spare A Dime?

[Dr.Phool]

50. Got change for a twenty?

[Demeter]

11. that's a cute cartoon! lots of cultural riff

it appears i'm giving up on capitalization for the rest of the year...oh, well!

good morning Ozy, boys and girls!


postings 9 and 10 fit the definition of chutzpah:

Man who killed his parents begging for the mercy of the court because he is an orphan....

[ozymandius]

12. Good morning!

I dropped by for this weekend's WEE to leave my recommendation. Otherwise it was a super busy weekend. I hope everything went well for you.

Re: the cartoon - the Wells Fargo profit report is starting to smell bad.

[Demeter]

17. Three Days and Fish Starts to Stink..

It was cold, but no major crises, and I found some of the stuff lost in the inbox on my dining room table, so it was a good weekend.

The thread stank, though. I couldn't even come up with much in the way of humor to lighten it. There is no good news, and I refuse to look at minor police action against Somali fishermen as a sign of anything except competence which Bush would have royally screwed up without even trying...

Well, the puppy is cute. But those water spaniels are a handful. Good thing Michelle can hire help at taxpayer expense. Hope the dog matures before they have to go home, or slows down, at least.

[bread_and_roses]

22. WE did not stink! I'm always grateful to you for all the substance and read it all weekend

I don't add to it because I really have nothing of substance to add - I just reel with horror. As for humor, no one expects a laugh a minute, I hope - there's enough grim humor just between the lines.

[Demeter]

24. I appreciate that

I just hate being the bearer of uniformly bad news going worse...it's very wearing on the soul.

[Hugin]

38. Next weekend when I roll out the SMW Economy Index (to great fanfare) it should be better.

Sorry, I wasn't around much, but, I was also working on my new concept of the Instant Gratification Theater (in-the-round).

I'm quite taken with the whole concept. I'd give you more details... Haven't gotten the Copyright settled yet, however. ;)


Anyway, back to the SMWEI... Late last week Ozy and I were discussing our dissatisfaction with using the Market Indexes as a measure of the US's Economic Health and I suggested I could put together an Index which would better indicate the View of the Common People... As far as the Economy is concerned.

I started out with two views of how to go about this...

1. A strictly objective aggregate measure containing weighted values of a combination of economy related metrics; Market Indexes, Unemployment Rates, Retail Energy Prices, etc... But, it seemed boring and as I'm Attention Challenged... This Month's Cover of "Vanity Fair" soon distracted me.

2. A purely subjective index... Modeled on the "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" 'Doomsday Clock'. The idea being that periodically we'd get together and evaluate (from shared information and experience) where on a scale the index should be set... I decided against this because lacking any objective measures it would draw even more heat on participants of the SMW/WEE community by the DU Pollyannas. Who already see and refer to us as 'Gloom 'n Doomers'.

Rejecting those two ideas left only one design... (Brilliant, if I say so myself) of a combination of objective and subjective weighted metrics combined into an index.

Here's how it's going to work.... Late in each week I will accept input from the public-at-large on a scale from 1 to 10 on the state of the Economy. (Doesn't really matter how many, but, I'd like more than ten entries initially) I will dump those in with a group of selected objective economic measures and... DING! Out pops the SMWEI for the next week! :D Which I will then post initially in the WEE and Monday Morning on the SMW.

How's that sound? Huh?

[Ghost Dog]

42. Sounds cool, including 'psychological' perceptions.

State of the US (only) economy, I take it (rather than just stock market)?

[Hugin]

45. Yes, to expand to the Global Scale is beyond my current grasp...

But, only temporarily! Muhwahahahaha! ;)

[Demeter]

47. Well If We're Going to discuss Major TakeoverPlans...

I'm going to parodize Gilbert and Sullivan.

My new work will be called "IOweWallStreet" and is the story of a singular young man who is half mortal and half fairy, or immortal, and sent into government by his fairy family. He loves a beautiful ward heeler of the state (Illinois) named Michelle Robinson, and their romance gets blown a bit off track by the politics...but as always, it comes out right.

The thing practically writes itself...I've been humming all day:

I often think it’s comical – Fal, lal, la!
How Nature always does contrive – Fal, lal, la!
That every boy and every gal
That’s born into the world alive
Is either a little Liberal
Or else a little Conservative!
Fal, lal, la!

When in that House M.P.’s divide,
If they’ve a brain and cerebellum, too,
They’ve got to leave that brain outside,
And vote just as their leaders tell ’em to.
But then the prospect of a lot
Of dull M. P.’s in close proximity,
All thinking for themselves, is what
No man can face with equanimity.

Then let’s rejoice with loud Fal la – Fal la la!
That Nature always does contrive – Fal lal la!
That every boy and every gal
That’s born into the world alive
Is either a little Liberal
Or else a little Conservative!

[Hugin]

48. How inspirational.

You have a way with song.

Your plot does remind me of a partially completed manuscript I have somewhere in the heaps around me... Collecting dust.

It was about a Tyrannical Dictator who's subjects become increasingly alarmed as she begins a reign of ruthless humanitarianism throughout her Homeland.

She starts off small... Removing a Regressive Tax here... Building a water treatment plant there... Setting aside parklands... Those mundane sorts of things.

But, as she gains power she begins to become crazed, doing things like; Establishing a Living Wage for workers in her country... Mandating a no-profit until everyone is fed and sheltered rule on businesses... Doing away with the ridiculous pantomime of competition between businesses providing essentially the same service and combining them to end the gaming and ensuing 'growth creep' that leads to... Creating a Pension-like fund for those who have worked all of their lives and deserve some time in their later years to not worry...

What causes the final (and fatal for her) rioting of the masses near the end of the book is when she shocks everyone by imposing....

*GASP* Universal Healthcare on ALL of her subjects! Oh! The HORROR! They tear her apart with pitchforks, as you can imagine.

Anyway, that's a story... If you could set it to music... I'd be much obliged. :)

[Demeter]

57. But Tansy Doesn't WANT to Be Torn Apart!

and I don't like Princess Ida all that much....

[Tansy_Gold]

62. YOU OWE ME A MONITOR AND A KEYBOARD!!!!

I've been buried in work and this is the first chance since early morning I've had to read SMW.




:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

:yourock:



Tansy Gold, laughing seriously, er, seriestly, er, seerusioly. . . .. ...

[Demeter]

64. I Have Several

It's the computers that keep blowing up on me....where shall I send them?

[mrdmk]

51. If anybody was curious about Hugin's distraction, here she is...

I did not put the cover page of Vanity Fair here for the fear having to explain to the Moderators why I should not be kicked out of D.U.

But you can find that for yourselves here (look top right and at the slide show)

link: http://www.vanityfair.com/style/features/2009/05/gisele-bundchen-portfolio200905

[Hugin]

54. I only read the articles...

It was the piece, "What Obama could learn from Teddy Roosevelt"

Here... http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/05/teddy-roosevelt-excerpt200905

[Dr.Phool]

29. Just one of those holiday week-ends.

I read everything I can, in between cooking and cocktails and entertaining.

[ozymandius]

14. Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results (worth repeating)

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.

The Fed wants to ensure that the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month. Such a scenario might push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results in an orderly fashion later this month.

“If you allow banks to talk about it, people are just going to assume that the ones that don’t comment about it failed,” said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia.

....

Banks should stay silent because a focus on the tests would be “a harmful distraction” from earnings, said Scott Talbott, senior vice president for government affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable in Washington.

....

Under the Treasury’s plan, banks would have six months after the reviews to raise any new capital they might need. If the money isn’t obtained from private investors, the government will provide the funds from the $700 billion bank-rescue plan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aEX9sBcofMYY&refer=economy

[Demeter]

15. Stolen from FieldsBlank: Goldman Sachs hires law firm to shut blogger's site

GS just gave this guy more publicity than he could have ever hoped for.


==============

Goldman Sachs is attempting to shut down a dissident blogger who is extremely critical of the investment bank, its board members and its practices.

The bank has instructed Wall Street law firm Chadbourne & Parke to pursue blogger Mike Morgan, warning him in a recent cease-and-desist letter that he may face legal action if he does not close down his website.

Florida-based Mr Morgan began a blog entitled "Facts about Goldman Sachs" – the web address for which is goldmansachs666.com – just a few weeks ago.

In that time Mr Morgan, a registered investment adviser, has added a number of posts to the site, including one entitled "Does Goldman Sachs run the world?". However, many of the posts relate to other Wall Street firms and issues.

According to Chadbourne & Parke's letter, dated April 8, the bank is rattled because the site "violates several of Goldman Sachs' intellectual property rights" and also "implies a relationship" with the bank itself.

Unsurprisingly for a man who has conjoined the bank's name with the Number of the Beast – although he jokingly points out that 666 was also the S&P500's bear-market bottom – Mr Morgan is unlikely to go down without a fight.

He claims he has followed all legal requirements to own and operate the website – and that the header of the site clearly states that the content has not been approved by the bank.

http://digg.com/d1oRAa

http://www.goldmansachs666.com/

[Ghost Dog]

21. .

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/09/54634/a-litigious-goldman-sachs/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/5137489/Goldman-Sachs-hires-law-firm-to-shut-bloggers-site.html
:)

[ozymandius]

16. Bernanke Bet on Keynes Has Meltzer Seeing 1970s-Style Inflation

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is siding with John Maynard Keynes against Milton Friedman by flooding the financial system with money.

If history is any guide, says Allan Meltzer, the effort will end in tears. Inflation “will get higher than it was in the 1970s,” says Meltzer, the Fed historian and professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. At the end of that decade, consumer prices rose at a year-over- year rate of 13.3 percent.

Bernanke’s gamble that the highest jobless rate in 25 years and the most idle factory capacity on record will hold down inflation is straight out of the late British economist Keynes. Should late Nobel-prize-winner Friedman’s dictum that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” prove right, the $1 trillion or more in liquidity Bernanke has pumped into the financial system by expanding the Fed’s balance sheet may leave him to cope with surging consumer prices.

....

Meltzer says political pressure will prevent Bernanke, 55, and fellow policy makers from withdrawing liquidity quickly enough as the economy recovers. That’s similar to the pattern that occurred back in the 1970s, he says. Then-Chairman Arthur Burns allowed excessive money-supply growth because he was unable or unwilling to resist pressure from President Richard Nixon’s White House to hold down unemployment, leading to the “great inflation” of that era, he says.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8tjEzB.d.kU&refer=exclusive

[Demeter]

18. Can there be inflation with no jobs whatsoever?

i guess we are going to find out.




Today's Dilbert is Rated R!

http://dilbert.com/dyn_file/str_strip/49202/gif/strip.print/

[Warpy]

41. They always wail about inflation whenever Keynes is brought in

it just never fails. The problem is that we've seen massive inflation over the last 28 years when Keynes has been banished to the dustbin and Milton Friedman has been enshrined.

What these idiots still fail to grasp is that inflation is not always about too many dollars chasing too few goods, that it can also occur for reasons that have nothing to do with whether or not the working man is getting a fair return on his labor. They still fail to grasp that the inflation in the 70s was due to price manipulation by an oil cartel and not because unions managed to get a decent wage for their members, in other words.

Some people will go through history and manage to learn all the wrong lessons from it, and I strongly suspect Melzer is one of them.

The fact is that we've seen inflation along with devalued labor, fueled by an artificially easy access to debt. There are only two way to run an economy: pay people or put them into debt. Unfortunately, the latter has an expiration date that comes all too soon as people hit a point at which they can no longer service additional debt and still manage to eat and stop buying. We are at that point now.

The pipeline is crammed full of goods and the prices are still rising, although a little more slowly now. People can't afford them and aren't buying them, but prices are rising. The classic view of too many dollars chasing too few goods as the only cause of inflation is being proven wrong again, but men like Melzer are just too damned in love with their dogma to see it.

[ozymandius]

19. Bear Market Rally ? (Beware the Optimists!)

Is this the real thing, or just another Bear Market rally? So far, we’ve had 4 runs of about 20% each.
Here are 3 things to keep in mind:

1) Follow the Playbook: The smart investor’s playbook is very different in bear markets than bull markets. In a Bull Market, you buy the dips. Lower prices are an opportunity to buy into equities at cheaper valuations. Most sales are disappointing, as prices eventually go higher. Buy & hold is the simplest, most cost effective investment strategy.

Bear markets call for a very different set of plays: You sell the rallies; higher prices are opportunities to sell equities at premium valuations. Most buys are disappointing, as prices eventually go lower. Buy & hold is a losing strategy – trading what the market presents to you is the best risk management strategy.

The goal during bull markets is to grow your capital; the goal during bear markets is to protect your capital.

2) Beware the ‘Conspiracy of Optimists’: In the run up to the top of the bull market (October 2007), there is an overly positive view of the world, a misconception amongst the broader populace as to what is actually happening. Warning signs are ignored as foolish memes are promulgated.

Recall these absurd rationales:

• Damage from Subprime mortgages was “contained”
• The US economic slowdown would “decouple” from the rest of the world;
• The conundrum of ultralow interest rates were the result of a “excess savings”

All three of these proved false. And, to the astute investor, these all contained warnings of the coming investment storm. We are currently hearing similar foolishness from the same perennial cheerleaders. (See the “Green Shoots” from a recent NYT debate).

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/bear-market-rally-4/

[Festivito]

20. Debt: 04/09/2009 11,169,466,380,008.32 (UP 24,113,679,816.75) (Good size rise.)

(The public debt rises a good 24 billion, but it has not been a constantly rising thing. FICA side has a small move up.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,892,835,801,149.21 + 4,276,630,578,859.11
UP 24,055,285,655.59 + UP 58,394,161.16

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.8, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,134,486 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,485.49.
A family of three owes $109,456.47. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 9,033,472,891.87.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,226,778,313.50.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,993,656,432.42.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 56 reports in 79 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.71B$ per report, 0.61B$/day so far.
There were 131 reports in 191 days of FY2009 averaging 8.74B$ per report, 5.99B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,382 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 20.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/09/2009 11,169,466,380,008.32 BHO (UP 542,589,331,095.24 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,144,741,483,095.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/20/2009 +000,429,200,142.60 ------------********
03/23/2009 -000,116,003,157.82 --- Mon
03/24/2009 +000,222,913,900.31 ------------********
03/25/2009 +000,059,898,960.86 ------------*******
03/26/2009 +007,175,786,187.90 ------------*********
03/27/2009 -000,468,145,936.78 ---
03/30/2009 +000,069,902,880.68 ------------******* Mon
03/31/2009 +079,841,314,678.25 ------------**********
04/01/2009 -001,742,860,350.87 --
04/02/2009 +007,764,243,786.78 ------------*********
04/03/2009 +028,967,677,130.84 ------------**********
04/06/2009 +000,073,808,356.95 ------------******* Mon
04/07/2009 +000,123,552,400.07 ------------********
04/08/2009 +000,050,639,456.95 ------------*******
04/09/2009 +024,055,285,655.59 ------------**********

146,507,214,092.31 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,504,834,576,749.25 in last 203 days.
That's 1,505B$ in 203 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 148% of that highest year ever only in 203 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 203 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3824935&mesg_id=3825040

[Festivito]

53. Debt: 04/10/2009 11,169,725,647,724.50 (UP 259,267,716.18) (Small.)

(Both are up by a small amount.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,892,886,957,946.75 + 4,276,838,689,777.75
UP 51,156,797.54 + UP 208,110,918.64

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.8, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,140,658 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,485.6.
A family of three owes $109,456.8. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 8,804,877,562.59.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,043,902,050.07.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,816,679,403.29.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 57 reports in 80 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.64B$ per report, 0.58B$/day so far.
There were 132 reports in 192 days of FY2009 averaging 8.67B$ per report, 5.96B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,381 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 20.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/10/2009 11,169,725,647,724.50 BHO (UP 542,848,598,811.42 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,145,000,750,812.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/23/2009 -000,116,003,157.82 --- Mon
03/24/2009 +000,222,913,900.31 ------------********
03/25/2009 +000,059,898,960.86 ------------*******
03/26/2009 +007,175,786,187.90 ------------*********
03/27/2009 -000,468,145,936.78 ---
03/30/2009 +000,069,902,880.68 ------------******* Mon
03/31/2009 +079,841,314,678.25 ------------**********
04/01/2009 -001,742,860,350.87 --
04/02/2009 +007,764,243,786.78 ------------*********
04/03/2009 +028,967,677,130.84 ------------**********
04/06/2009 +000,073,808,356.95 ------------******* Mon
04/07/2009 +000,123,552,400.07 ------------********
04/08/2009 +000,050,639,456.95 ------------*******
04/09/2009 +024,055,285,655.59 ------------**********
04/10/2009 +000,051,156,797.54 ------------*******

146,129,170,747.25 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,505,093,844,465.43 in last 204 days.
That's 1,505B$ in 204 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 148% of that highest year ever only in 204 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 204 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3828664&mesg_id=3828727

[radfringe]

23. ‘The Peter Principle’ is ageless as it turns 40

‘The Peter Principle’ is ageless as it turns 40
Resonates more today in our unprecedented age of incompetence
By Robert I. Sutton
updated 12:35 p.m. ET, Sun., April 12, 2009
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30091642/

"The Peter Principle," about to be reissued in a 40th anniversary edition, was a best seller when it was first published. A satiric treatise on workplace incompetence, it touched a nerve with readers because it was so funny. And so true. Much like the film "Office Space," NBC's "The Office," and Scott Adams' "Dilbert" comic strips, this book by Laurence J. Peter (a former teacher) and Raymond Hull (a playwright) captured the twisted logic of workplaces — tapping into how ridiculous they feel to insiders. It gleefully emitted a cloud of jargon monoxide and absurd advice as it reached its famous main conclusion: "In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence."

The Peter Principle made us laugh, but it also made us aware of the importance of simple competence — and of how elusive it could be. When people do their jobs well, Dr. Peter argued, society can't leave well enough alone. We ask for more and more until we ask too much. Then these individuals — promoted to positions in which they are doomed to fail — start using a bag of tricks to mask their incompetence. They distract us from their crummy work with giant desks, replace action with incomprehensible acronyms, blame others for failure, cheat to create the illusion of progress.

---------

two good books --

The Peter Principle: Laurence J. Peter
http://www.amazon.com/Peter-Principle-Laurence-J/dp/1568491611

Sacred Cows Make the Best Burgers, Robert J. Kriegel,
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Sacred-Cows-Make-the-Best-Burgers/Robert-J-Kriegel/e/9780446672603

...........

on edit: ;) looks like I've risen to my level of incompetency this morning.. :rofl: forgot the link to article.

[Demeter]

25. These Guys Aren't Incompetents, They Are Crooks

and they were raised up in the era of another crook who was also incompetent--W! and thank goodness he was and is.

A really good crook would not only rob you blind, but also make you feel good about it and grateful for the opportunity. Like Bernie Madoff--who put off his escape too long.


the Peter Principle was more about the mindless "social promotion" policy that "the favored chosen" people rose through the corporate ladder--rather like GM, actually-- in the absence of good reason. It assumed that somebody who was good at a production task should be put into management whether the aptitude or training or interest or whatever was there or not...when they failed to adapt, they had reached their "level of incompetence" and usually rose no further...it was the escalator for the elite, before the pirates took over and hacked their way through the economy.

[UpInArms]

26. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.354 Change -0.299 (-0.38%)

US Dollar Role Uncertain As Risk Appetite Meets Depression Potential

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Role_Uncertain_As_1239407112720.html

How often has the term ‘depression’ been used to describe the conditions in the US and global economies? What are the symptoms of this infrequently experienced economic storm? These are the questions that will shape the dollar’s future not just a week ahead but for months to come. Considering the broad rebound in market sentiment over the past month, the US dollar has struggled to find its place in the currency market. There is still a hold over for the greenback’s function as a safe haven. However, as demand for yield rises, investors may more closely focus on the fundamental health of the US economy and the potential for returns on the nation’s assets – and neither is promising.

In recent months, the best way to benchmark the strength of the dollar has been through its association to risk trends. Though liquidity has not been a serious issue for the capital markets since October, the terrible pace of growth behind the global economy and the mere presence of toxic derivatives in the market’s system has bolstered the greenback’s presence. This is not likely to change anytime soon. Despite the rise in risk appetite recently, investors are keenly aware to the state of economic activity and the vulnerability of the financial markets. A rebound in consumption, production and capital investment are essential elements for positive returns. However, each of these components are still contracting on a global level. At the same time, the level of risk behind the scenes continues to grow. This past week, the FOMC minutes referred to credit conditions as “very tight” and suggested financial markets were “fragile and unsettled” as pressure was intensifying. Banks are refusing to open credit lines as they attempt to bolster reserves as defaults rise, earnings drop and growth naturally leads demand to dry up. This means the potential for another crisis and panic exodus of capital from the market is a constant threat. One of the most menacing triggers for such a dramatic shift in sentiment is the ‘stress test’ the US federal government has performed on the country’s 19 largest banks. Rumors have circulated that the Treasury has instructed target banks not to disclose any results from their evaluation as officials want to wait until after earnings season (to avoid what could be another ‘perfect storm’ should the assessment be bad). However, as more earnings data crosses the wires, speculation on the results will no doubt grow.

As long as the market’s fear the possibility of another crisis, the dollar will be coveted for its deeply liquid markets and the aggressive actions of the US government. However, should markets maintain their calm and risk appetite slowly recover, investors will once again be put to task in grading which economy will recover first while supporting the most lucrative yields (within reason of some level of safety). As this is a market dynamic that is slowly developing now, we have to put the US on that scale; and the results are not promising. In the Fed’s minutes, the policy authority mentioned its concern of “feedback effects.” This refers to a situation where financial strains feed the economic troubles and vice versa such that the cycle maintains itself. Bailouts, liquidity injections and efforts to remove toxic debt from the system has tried to correct a vital component of this bleak spiral; but it has clearly not corrected the larger issue. So, in the meantime, concentration will fall back on economic activity with a round of notable indicators. From the list, the market will look to benchmark the health of the housing market, production and consumer spending. The University of Michigan confidence survey and retail sales report will gauge consumer health. Industrial production and regional manufacturing reports will measure business activity. While housing starts and building permits offer a better gauge of construction than sales of existing homes or the creation of mortgages.



...more...

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/trading_news_reports/EUR_USD__Trading_the_U_S__Advance_1239621784777.html

Retail sales in the U.S. is expected to rise 0.3% in March as tax refunds begin to reach consumers however, the outlook for private-sector spending remains bleak as households face a weakening labor market paired with fears of a deepening recession. The world’s largest economy lost another 663K jobs in March, which pushed the annual rate of unemployment to its highest level since 1983

Trading the News: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

What’s Expected

Time of release: 04/14/2009 12:30 GMT, 08:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD

Expected: 0.3%
Previous: -0.1%

Impact the U.S. retail sales report had over EURUSD for the past 2 months



February 2009 U.S. Retail Sales

Private-sector demands in the U.S. fell 0.1% in February after rising 1.8% in the previous month, and the outlook for consumer spending remains bleak as deteriorating fundamentals continue to foreshadow a deepening downturn in the region. A deeper look at the report showed that auto-related purchases fell 4.3% during the month, while gasoline receipts increased 3.4% on the back of higher oil prices, and conditions are likely to get worse as households face a weakening labor market. The economy lost another 651K jobs during the same period, which pushed the jobless rate to 8.1% - the highest since December 1983 – and the data continues to reinforce a dour outlook for the labor market as business continue to cut back on production and employment in an effort to reduce costs.



January 2009 U.S. Retail Sales

Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly increased 1.0% in January to snap a six-month slump in private-spending however, domestic demands are likely to weaken further in the months ahead as households continue to face a weakening labor market. The breakdown of the report showed that the rise in consumption was driven by a 2.6% rise in gasoline receipts, which was followed by a 2.6% increase in electronics, while discretionary spending on clothing increased 1.6% during the month. Private-sector spending is likely to weaken further throughout the first half of the year as economists forecast the unemployment rate to push higher, and as the world’s largest economy faces its worst economic downturn in over a quarter century, the outlook for future growth remains bleak.



...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Recession Now Hits Jobs in Health Care

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123958719598112571.html

Employment in health care, the only major industry outside the federal government still adding jobs, is succumbing to the recession.

In the latest sign, the president of New York City Health & Hospitals Corp. wrote Friday to community organizations as well as employees and unions at its 11 hospitals and four nursing homes, saying the agency will lay off more workers even after slashing 400 jobs last month.



"We now project that HHC's deficits will worsen, even if we are spared further state cuts," Alan Aviles wrote to the staff of 39,000. "The challenges will deepen." He blamed the job losses on state cuts in Medicaid payments to the public-health system.

Across the country, hospitals are taking financial hits. They are seeing losses in the portfolios that they rely on for investment income. The number of uninsured patients is rising. Elective procedures -- which reap big profits -- are down at a third of hospitals nationwide. Nursing homes are trimming payrolls. And with state governments continuing to cut budgets and talk of health-care reform from Washington, industry executives are preparing for even leaner times.

More than 16 million people -- one in eight workers on U.S. payrolls -- work in health care today, up from just 1% of the work force 50 years ago. Employment in health care and social assistance -- which includes hospitals, doctors offices, nursing homes and social services such as day care -- has grown by half a million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, while the rest of the economy has shed 5.1 million jobs.

...more...

[Demeter]

28. Congress Has Never Had a Layoff

hmmm....

[Tansy_Gold]

32. In fact, they're expanding!

Didn't they add two new positions, DC and UT?

:groan:



TG

[DemReadingDU]

34. Yes

2/27/09 D.C. Voting Bill Passes the Senate
The Senate passed a bill yesterday that expands the House of Representatives from 435 members to 437 members. The House has been expanded many times in the past as states entered the union, so that by itself is not unusual. What is unusual is that one of the seats is given to the District of Columbia and the other to the state that came closest to getting an extra seat in the 2000 census, which is Utah. It is virtually guaranteed that the representative from D.C. will be a black Democrat (stronger yet, it will almost assuredly be Eleanor Holmes Norton, who is currently a nonvoting liaison from D.C. to Congress). The new Utah representative is very likely to be a white Mormon Republican. This is a compromise a few Republicans can live with. In fact, six of them voted for the bill.
more...
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2009/Senate/Maps/Feb27-s.html

[Demeter]

46. Congress Should Grow Up

They were pulling that kind of balancing game just before the Civil War. Kindergarten politics. We ought to be better than that by now...(Why isn't the GOP dead yet? Somebody get some garlic, a wooden stake, a silver bullet, and a cross. We'll take them out via the mafiosi, bloodsucking gun nut religious freak path!)

[AnneD]

31. Morning Marketeers........

:donut: and lurkers. Health care has always been a lagging indicator. Once all these people get laid off and fewer come through the door with insurance-it gets interesting. Hospitals typically start a building campaign, redecorate the lobby and the offices, add another layer of office staff and lay off ancillary staff, dump those jobs (respiratory therapy, physical therapy) on the Nursing staff and then reduce the Nursing staff. This happened in the 80's so all during the 90's the shortage of Nurses accelerated. Well deja vu. Another day of fresh Nursing hell. I'm getting too old for this shit. I can survive just fine where I am and still keep my sanity and health. I really don't think I'll ever return to floor nursing again-even under Federal Marshall orders.

We saw some of our friends from Germany on Friday but I spent Sat and Sunday waylaid by a nasty stomach bug. Just held down a banana last night. I am at work this morning but I don't think I'll last til lunch. All told-I'd rather be in bed.The charts don't help the nausea.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Wednesdays]

35. In the late 1980s I got thru grad school working as a home health aide

One time my supervisor got a call for help from a local VA hospital, looking for someone to fill in as a nurse's aide, so I was sent there for a day.

The rooms on the floor where I worked was filled to capacity. Covering the entire floor, there was just one RN...and me. She dispensed the meds, and I did everything else. Needless to say, by the end of the shift we were both half-dead from exhaustion.

Yeah, ya wouldn't want to waste federal tax dollars hiring a little extra help in those places. :eyes: This was at a time when Raygun's "smaller gummint" campaign was just beginning to take hold. I can't even imagine how things might be now.

[Dr.Phool]

37. I knew a guy who worked his way through law school dealing drugs.

His first job after he passed the bar exam?

Assistant County Prosecutor!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Really. No shit.

[Demeter]

44. Let Me Guess---GOP?

[Dr.Phool]

49. Actually no.

It was a near completely Dem dominated county.

After his stint as a Prosecutor, he became a criminal defense attorney. He died in a house fire about two or three years ago.

[Demeter]

58. So He Covered All Aspects

got a comprehensive view of crime and punishment in America....

[DemReadingDU]

30. Michael Hudson: The Financial War Against Iceland

4/5/09
Michael Hudson: The Financial War Against Iceland

Being defeated by debt is as deadly as outright military warfare.

Iceland is under attack – not militarily­ but financially. It owes more than it can pay. This threatens debtors with forfeiture of what remains of their homes and other assets. The government is being told to sell off the nation’s public domain, its natural resources and public enterprises to pay the financial gambling debts run up irresponsibly by a new banking class. This class is seeking to increase its wealth and power despite the fact that its debt-leveraging strategy already has plunged the economy into bankruptcy. On top of this, creditors are seeking to enact permanent taxes and sell off public assets to pay for bailouts to themselves.

Being defeated by debt is as deadly as outright military warfare. Faced with loss of their property and means of self-support, many citizens will get sick, lead lives of increasing desperation and die early if they do not repudiate most of the fraudulently offered loans of the past five years. And defending its civil society will not be as easy as it is in a war where the citizenry stands together in coping with a visible aggressor. Iceland is confronted by more powerful nations, headed by the United States and Britain. They are unleashing their propagandists and mobilizing the IMF and World Bank to demand that Iceland not defend itself by wiping out its bad debts. Yet these creditor nations so far have taken no responsibility for the current credit mess. And indeed, the United States and Britain are net debtors on balance. But when it comes to their stance vis-à-vis Iceland, they are demanding that it impoverish its citizens by paying debts in ways that these nations themselves would never follow. They know that it lacks the money to pay, but they are quite willing to take payment in the form of foreclosure on the nation’s natural resources, land and housing, and a mortgage on the next few centuries of its future.

If this sounds like the spoils of war, it is – and always has been. Debt bondage is the name of this game. And the major weapon in this conflict of interest is how people perceive it. Debtors must be convinced to pay voluntarily, to put creditor interests above of the economy’s prosperity as a whole, and even to put foreign demands above their own national interest. This is not a policy that my country, the United States, follows. But popular discussion in Iceland to date has been one-sided in defense of creditor interests, not that of its own domestic debtors.

Ultimately, Iceland’s adversary is not a nation or even a class, but impersonal financial dynamics working globally and domestically. To cope with its current debt pressure, Iceland must recognize how uniquely destructive an economic regime its bankers have created, through self-serving legislation and outright fraud. With eager foreign complicity, its banks have managed to create enough foreign debt to cause chronic currency depreciation and hence domestic price inflation for many decades to come.

To put Iceland’s financial dilemma in perspective, examine how other countries have dealt with huge debt obligations. Historically, the path of least resistance has been to “inflate their way out of debt.” The idea is to pay debts with “cheap money” in terms of its reduced purchasing power. Governments do this by printing money and running budget deficits (spending more than they take in through taxes) large enough to raise prices as this new money chases the same volume of goods. That is how Rome depreciated its currency in antiquity, and how America managed to erode much of its own debt in the 1970s – and how the dollar’s falling international value has wiped out much of the U.S. international debt in recent years. This price inflation reduces the debt burden – as long as wages and other income rise in tandem.

Faced with an unprecedented explosion of debt obligations – many of them apparently fraudulent, and certainly in violation of traditional credit practice – Iceland has turned this inflationary solution inside out. Instead of permitting the classic credit cure of inflating the currency, it has created a dream economy for creditors, preventing the classical escape from debt. Iceland has found a way to inflate its way into debt, not out of it. By indexing debt to the rate of inflation, it has guaranteed a unique windfall for banks that vastly increases what they receive in a “down market,” at the expense of wage earners and industrial profits. Linking mortgage loans to the consumer price index (CPI) in the face of a depreciating currency and heavy balance-of-payments drain to foreigners can have only one result: destruction of Iceland’s society and its traditional way of life.

lots more, this is a very long article...
http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2009/04/05/the-financial-war-against-iceland-by-prof-michael-hudson/


click on the link in the yellow box for a video about Iceland with Hudson
http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2009/04/07/michael-hudson-and-john-perkins-interviews-on-iceland-must-see/

[Robbien]

39. Michael Hudson put out another article just the other day re: Iceland and the IMF

The IMF Rules the World
http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson04062009.html


<snip>

I suppose I can tell Icelandic politicians that I have good news regarding the fate of their country’s foreign and domestic debt: No nation ever has paid its debts. As I noted above, this means that the real question is not whether or not they will be paid, but how not to pay these debts. How will the game play out – in the political sphere, in popular ideology, and in the courts at home and abroad?

The question is whether Iceland will let bankruptcy tear apart its economy slowly, transferring property from debtors to creditors, from Icelandic citizens to foreigners, and from the public domain and national taxing power to the international financial class. Or, will Iceland see where the inherent mathematics of debt are leading, and draw the line? At what point will it say “We won’t pay. These debts are immoral, uneconomic and anti-democratic.” Do they want to continue the fight by Enlightenment and Progressive Era social democracy, or the alternative – a lapse back into neofeudal debt peonage?

This is the choice must be made. And it is largely a question of timing. That’s what the financial sector plays for – time enough to transfer as much property as it can into the hands of the banks and other investors. That’s what the IMF advises debtor countries to do – except of course for the United States as largest debtor of all. This is the underlying lawless character of today’s post-bubble debts.

Your article is not limited to the IMF and is much more detailed (and wordy) and thus is much more chilling. Thanks for posting.

[Robbien]

40. A Third Of Mortgage-Backed Securities May Be Missing The Underlying Note

Given everything we know about sloppy underwriting standards at the mortgage mills from the middle of this decade, it wouldn't surprise us at all to learn that a lot of crucial mortgage paperwork is just flat out missing.

This issue has been bubbling under the surface for awhile, as some homeowner advocates fight foreclosures on the grounds that the actual paperwork can't be produced.

How big is the problem? Bankruptcy lawyer R. Glen Ayers recently gave a speech saying 1/3rd of all mortgage backed securities may not be connected to a physical mortgage. Sure, they're producing cash flow now. They're connected to a household. But if there were ever need for a foreclosure, it could be much harder than current holders assume. Talk about toxic assets.

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-third-of-mortgage-backed-securities-may-be-missing-the-underlying-mortgage-2009-4


Then there was this article:

The Mortgage Bankers Association did a study in 2008 that found 70 percent of foreclosures were on properties either not occupied by owners, were on borrowers who could not be found or did not respond, or on borrowers who had already had a modification and were defaulting again. Of the 30 percent not in those categories must surely be quite a few of tomorrow's re-defaulters!

http://dealbreaker.com/2009/02/let-it-fall-but-get-out-of-the.php

[Dr.Phool]

52. Madoff's niece wants to know what to expect in prison.

She's the compliance officer who married the SEC investigator. She must see the sharks circling.


http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/report_shana_madoff_contacted_prison_consultant.php?ref=fp4


Report: Shana Madoff Contacted Prison Consultant
By Zachary Roth - April 13, 2009, 12:05PM

A female relative of Bernard Madoff -- identified by the New York Post as Madoff's niece, Shana Madoff -- called a "federal prison consultant" to ask how much jail time she might be facing, the consultant told TPMmuckraker.

Larry Levine -- a former federal prisoner who now runs a company, Wall Street Prison Consultants, that gives advice to future inmates on how to survive prison time and win an early release -- said that a woman had called him about three weeks ago, saying that she might face conspiracy charges. At first, said Levine, the woman was hesitant to divulge any specific information, but, when pressed by Levine, said that she was a relative of Bernard Madoff, explained the basics of her situation, and asked how much jail time she might be facing. "No money changed hands," said Levine, describing the call as "exploratory".

Levine said he hadn't heard back from the caller since then, but that "it was probably Shana." The Post reported this morning, citing an anonymous source, that Shana Madoff had contacted Levine "because she was concerned about her safety" should she go to jail.

Shana Madoff, who is married to a former SEC enforcement official, worked as a compliance officer with Madoff's firm.

According to the Post, Levine "is still on federal supervised release after serving 10 years behind bars for counterfeiting securities." FedTime 101, his introductory class, teaches enrollees about "The Daily Prison Grind", "Your 1st Day What To Bring With, "Why Staff Lie & Dislike Inmates," and "How To Survive A Prison Riot," among other subjects.

The financial crisis has clearly meant boom times for Levine. He told us he has more messages than he can get to from prospective clients, and is appearing on Fox later today, after already being interviewed by CNN.

[Demeter]

59. You Can Find ANYTHING In New York, I Guess.

Any kind of good or service....

[nc4bo]

55. Amazing!11 Just a few short days ago BAC almost literally a dime a dozen.

WooWee and YeeHaw. Simply amazing. What a rally.

$11.02 and one shoe is fast on the rise.

So does waiting for the other shoe to drop make me a pessimistic cynic?

[Demeter]

60. Sadder but Wiser, Perhaps

[KoKo]

63. Sheesh...and I moved my 401-K.. only invested in "safe stocks" outta there with Citi, BAC , Goldman

and now THEY ARE COMING BACK! Should I jump back into those Suckers that I was forced to buy or WAIT?

Oh dearie me...sucking thumb and wondering. WHAT IF?...they ALL COME BACK...and I was a SUCKER for going into the only thing my "limited 401-K Option gave was..."Revolving Interest Rates Fund" given me 0.1 %. I didn't have "Treasuries" as an option in my 401-K.

I shoulda' stayed in the CORRUPT BANKS... !!! Is this SCAM 2?

:cry: I missed it all and they raped me for thousands. Is THIS THE TIME TO JUMP BACK IN?

:sarcasm: But, part of this is exactly what happened to me...the "Jump Back In" is the :sarcasm:

[Dr.Phool]

56. A little humor for all the intelligent women on SMW and WEE. Guys too.

One morning the husband returns after several hours of fishing and decides to take a nap. Although not familiar with the lake, the wife
decides to take the boat out. She motors out a short distance, anchors, and reads her book.

Along comes a Game Warden in his boat. He pulls up alongside the woman and says, 'Good morning, Ma'am. What are you doing?'

'Reading a book,' she replies (thinking, 'Isn't that obvious?').

'You're in a Restricted Fishing Area,' he informs her.

'I'm sorry, officer, but I'm not fishing. I'm reading.'

'Yes, but you have all the equipment. For all I know you could start at any moment. I'll have to take you in and write you up.'

'For reading a book,' she replies.

'You're in a Restricted Fishing Area,' he informs her again.

'I'm sorry, officer, but I'm not fishing. I'm reading.'

'Yes, but you have all the equipment. For all I know you could start at any moment. I'll have to take you in and write you up.'

'If you do that, I'll have to charge you with sexual assault,' says the woman.

'But I haven't even touched you,' says the game warden.

'That's true, but you have all the equipment. For all I know you could start at any moment.'

'Have a nice day, Ma'am,' and he left.

MORAL: Never argue with a woman who reads. It's likely she can also think. Send this to four women who are thinkers. If you receive this, you know you're intelligent.

[Demeter]

61. Always a Goodie!

[Tansy_Gold]

65. One of my favorites!

Should be posted in the home of every (reading) woman.



TG

[DemReadingDU]

66. That's great!

sending to my sisters
:)